Jobs and Business Policy BY EDWARD J. EGAN, PH.D. BAKER INSTITUTE FELLOW DIRECTOR OF THE MCNAIR CENTER FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP & INNOVATION The U.S. is a Free Market Economy In a free market economy, firms control the means of the production. This means that by-and-large government can not change the nation’s economic direction. Government can do things that are more or less optimal to support a free market economy as it evolves. Free markets fail to achieve efficiency for well-known economic reasons. Government should address market failures. Efficiency isn’t the goal — maximizing social welfare is — so governments should also redistribute wealth in free market economies. All of the candidates, even Senator Sanders, believe in free markets! “The economy, stupid.” ● US GDP estimated at $18.1 trillion for Q4 2015 ● Current growth rate is around 2.2% ● There is no consensus among projections — anything in the 2% to 3% range over the next presidential term is likely ● GDP growth is declining relative to the 80’s and the 90’s. We are now back at pre-recession levels, but with a gradual downward trend. Jobs and Small Business “Don’t believe these phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number’s probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.” -- Donald Trump “Instead of small businesses going out of business in record numbers, imagine small businesses growing and prospering.” -- Ted Cruz How the Candidates Will Help Small Business “Pull back the job-crushing regulations that are killing small businesses” -- Ted Cruz “We're going to get rid of the regulations” -- Donald Trump “Removing such burdensome regulations would boost small businesses” -- Ben Carson “Regulatory cost and the tax cost - that's why small businesses are closing” -- Jeb Bush “Small businesses are the engines of the American economy... [they] need to be free from overbearing government policy” -- Marco Rubio “High taxes... punish a small business owner” -- John Kasich “Expand access to capital, provide tax relief, cut red tape, and help small businesses...” -- Hillary Clinton “Make sure that small businesses have access to low-interest loans” -- Bernie Sanders Regulations/Subsidies that Affect Small Business Small Business Policy Decrease regulation/activity Increase regulation/activity Leave regulation/activity unchanged No statement available / unknown Candidate / Social Regulation Welfare Environment Healthcare Minimum Wage OSHA Taxes Access to Capital ? Clinton Sanders Bush Carson Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump It’s Entrepreneurship, not Small Business, that matters It is very hard to correctly quantify the portion of the economy that is in hightechnology, let alone the amount attributable to entrepreneurship. Estimates vary wildly and there is no consensus. Suggestive facts include: Patent applications went from around 100,000/yr in 1960s-1980s to around 600,000/yr today. The venture capital industry has grown 107% in the last decade. The asset value of the top 100 biotech firms has increased by around 400% since 2005. Patents Venture Capital How the Candidates will Help Entrepreneurship “We must promote growth in the technological sector...” -- Ted Cruz “Outdated labor regulations, new taxes, and other bad policies can prevent new, innovative businesses and technologies from ever being able to get off the ground.” -- Marco Rubio “We need... highly-skilled immigrants. Such a system would help create startups and increase innovation.” -- Jeb Bush “Entrepreneurship and innovation... drive our economy. To continue this... Bernie has supported increasing access to education and training, and opposing intellectual property regimes” -- Bernie Sanders Issues that affect Entrepreneurship New markets (gains from trade) Commercializable science (positive externalities) High-skilled labor (positive externalities) High-skilled labor (positive externalities) New markets (positive externalities) Entrepreneurship Policy Decrease public provision Increase public provision Leave public provision unchanged No statement available / unknown Candidate / Social Regulation Welfare Avail. of Capital Education Free Trade Healthcare H/S Immigration Research funds Clinton Sanders Bush Carson Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump Thank you QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS TO [email protected]
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