Supersymmetric Dark Matter in Light
of Recent Results from LHC, Xenon100
and Fermi Data
Leszek Roszkowski*
National Centre for Nuclear Research (NCBJ)
Warsaw, Poland
(On behalf of BayesFITS group)
*On leave of absence from
University of Sheffield
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Outline
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The big picture
Supersymmetric dark matter in the CMSSM
Impact of LHC 1/fb results
Impact of XENON100 limit
Prospects for DM direct detection search
Impact of FermiLAT dSphs data
Prospects for DeepCore
Summary
Based on:
•Fowlie, Kalinowski, Kazana, Roszkowski, Tsai (arXiv:1111.6098)
•Roszkowski, Sessolo, Tsai (arXiv:1202.1503)
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hep-ph/0404052
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The Big Picture
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Waiting for ``SUSY Spring’’
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Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric
Standard Model (CMSSM)
G. L. Kane, C. F. Kolda, L. Roszkowski and
J. D. Wells, Phys. Rev. D 49 (1994) 6173
figure from hep-ph/9709356
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Hide and seek with SUSY
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Statistical approach
Central object: Likelihood function
Positive measurements:
Limits:
• Smear out bounds.
• Can add theory error.
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Bayesian statistics
Bayes theorem:
• Prior: what we know about hypothesis BEFORE seeing the
data.
• Likelihood: the probability of obtaining data if hypothesis is true.
• Posterior: the probability about hypothesis AFTER seeing the data.
• Evidence: normalization constant, crucial for model comparison.
If hypothesis is a function of parameters, then posterior
becomes posterior probability function (pdf).
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Hide and seek with SUSY
Limits
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LHC: Currently best limits from CMS
Last week: limits from 4.4/fb
http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1430715
twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/CMSPublic/PhysicsResultsSUS
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Reproduce alpha_T limit
Poisson distribution to characterize counting experiments.
CMS alphaT 1.1/fb
95% lower limit
 SUSY events: generate MC simulations.
 Apply the same kinematical cuts as CMS.
 Obtain approximate efficiency and
likelihood maps.
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(arXiv:1111.6098)
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CMS 95% LIMIT!
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Numerical scans
 Perform random scan
over 4 CMSSM +4 SM
parameters
simultaneously
• Very wide ranges:
 Use Nested Sampling
algorithm to evaluate
posterior
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Impact of CMS alpha_T limit on CMSSM
(arXiv:1111.6098)
Before LHC (1/fb)
After LHC (1/fb)
A-funnel
Stau coannihilation
FP/HB
h-funnel
• Favored (high posterior) regions (stau coan., A-funnel) are pushed up.
• Light Higgs funnel region is excluded.
• Focus point/horizontal branch region gets enhanced and pushed out.
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Impact on DM direct detection
XENON(2011)
limit not applied
(arXiv:1111.6098)
• LHC limit pushes sigma_p down, mostly
below XENON100 limit.
• One-tonne detector reach:
sigma_p~2x10^-11 pb.
One will need 1 tonne DM detectors to probe favored ranges.
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Impact of XENON100 limit
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• LHC alpha_T limit: already
strong impact on CMSSM,
sigma_p
• Error on evaluating
sigma_p is ~ factor of 10:
Add XENON100 90%CL
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Local density ~2
–
Hadronic matrix elements
~5-10:
Weak effect.
Mostly in focus point region.
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arXiv:0801.3656
LHC limits on CMSSM are stronger
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Extend CMSSM scan to FP/HB
Our Likelihood maps allow
us to go beyond the regime
of published alphaT limit.
Big high posterior probability region in focus
point/hyperbolic branch region.
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Impact on Direct Detection of DM
Wider scan (m_0<4 TeV)
Narrower scan (m_0<2 TeV)
• Add XENON100
Currently XENON100
explores FP/HB region.
But, because of large theory error, it
cannot really constrain it!
Reducing theory error to tau=1
 almost no effect.
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Impact of FermiLAT dSph gamma
arXiv:1108.3546
• Add FermiLAT dSph 90%CL limit
• FermiLAT assumed NFW
Allowing DM profile to
vary strongly weakens
the impact.
Conclusions rather strongly depend on assumed halo profile.
If NFW  generic DM profile, then FermiLAT gamma limit has almost no effect.
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arXiv:1108.3546
SUSY: <sigma v> will be hard to constrain.
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CMSSM DM: Prospects for DeepCore
IceCube contained events: slightly worse.
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DeepCore will rule out WW
annihilation channel.
DeepCoreLeszek
willRoszkowski,
be sensitive
to FP/HB region.
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Summary
• With 1.1/fb at LHC: improved limits on SUSY particle masses.
• Our Bayesian analysis includes all relevant constraints via
likelihood function.
• The CMSSM has become severely constrained but not
excluded.
• Constraints from direct detection of dark matter are currently
weaker than from LHC even in the FP/HB region, due to large
theoretical uncertainties.
• Prospects for direct detection of DM: need 1 tonne targets.
• FermiLAT’s diffuse gamma-radiation data from dSphs probe
FP/HB region. Impact depends on assumed halo profile.
• DeepCore will also be sensitive to the FP/HB region.
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Backup
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Biggest challenges to the CMSSM
• Light Higgs
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SUSY DM before and after LHC(1/fb)
Before LHC
After LHC(1/fb)
XENON(2011)
(not applied)
arXiv:0705.2012 with updates
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