Usingagent-basedmodellingtounderstandthespreadofenergyconsumingsocialpracticesin
households
KavinNarasimhan*,ThomasRobertsandNigelGilbert
CentreforResearchinSocialSimulation(CRESS),UniversityofSurreyGU27XH,UK
*Correspondingauthor:[email protected]
PaperpreparedforDEMANDCentreConference,Lancaster,13-15April2016
Onlytobequotedand/orcitedwithpermissionoftheauthor(s).Copyrightheldbytheauthor(s).
Abstract
Todateagreatdealofworkhasbeenundertakentodescribe,qualitativelyandindetail,thenature
ofindividualandbundlesofdomesticenergypracticesandtheirelements.Butpracticeshavea
multitudeofshort-termandlong-termtrajectoriesasaconsequenceofthevariationsintheir
elementconfigurations.Thismakesforacomplexsystemthathasnotbeeninvestigatedadequately.
Inthispaper,anagent-basedapproachisusedtomodeltheprocessescapableofinfluencingthe
dailyperformancesandthelong-termevolutionofdomesticenergypractices.Households,practices,
andtheelementsofpracticesareconsideredasagentsinthemodel.Householdsdrawelements
togethertoperformthepractices.Therepeatedperformanceofpracticesinfluenceschangesinthe
underlyingelements,whichinturninfluencesthefutureperformanceofpractices.Inthismanner,
theprocessesleadingtotheperformance,therepetitionandthereproductionofpracticesare
modelled.Theenergyusepatternsofhouseholds,resultingasaconsequenceoftheperformanceof
practices,arealsomodelled.
Keywords
Agent-basedmodelling,socialpracticetheory,short-termandlong-termtrajectoriesofpractices,
domesticenergyconsumption
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1Introduction
DomesticenergyconsumptionaccountsforonethirdofthetotalenergydemandintheUK(DECC,
2013).Theresidentialsectorisalsoamajorconsumerofenergyinothercountries(Swan&Ugursal,
2009).Toreducedomesticenergyconsumption,andtheassociatedemissionsofgreenhousegases,
itisimportanttounderstandhowoccupantsuseenergyinhouseholds.Computationalmodelling
enablescarryingoutexploratorystudiestoascertaintheroleofoccupantbehaviourondomestic
energyconsumption.Themostcommonmodellingapproachistoconsiderthatindividualsmake
rationalenergyconsumptiondecisionsbasedontheinformationtheyhave.Modelsofoccupant
energyconsumptionbehaviourbasedonthetheoryofplannedbehaviour(Ajzen,1991)usethis
approach,e.g.Zhang&Nuttall(2007,2011).
Ontheotherhand,agrowingbodyofworkadvocatesthatenergyconsumptionisnotaconscious
act,butaby-productofperformingactivitiesthatrequireenergy(Strengers,2012;Wilhite,2005).
Forexample,Pink(2012)notesthatwatchingtelevisionisdoneforthesakeofentertainment,and
notasaconsciousefforttoconsumeenergy.Thispapersupportsthenotionofseeingenergy
consumptionasaby-productoftheactivitiesofnormaleverydayliving.Consequently,thepaper
proposesamodelforsimulatingthedynamicsofthedailyperformancesofenergyconsuming
practices(e.g.heating,cooking,laundry,etc.)andtheirinfluenceonhouseholdenergyusepatterns.
Anagent-basedmodelreferredtoasHouseholdsandPracticesinEnergyconsumptionScenarios
(HOPES)isproposed.Themodelisbasedontheoriesofpracticesthathavetheirrootsintheworks
ofBourdieu(1977)andGiddens(1984).Thefollowingaspectsareconsidered.Firstly,thatpractices
areatthecentreofsocialchange(Spaargaren,2003),whileindividualsaremerelythecarriersof
practices(Reckwitz,2002).Secondly,thatthedrawingtogetherofelements,suchasmeaning
(significance,interpretation,image),material(objects,body,mind)andskill(orcompetence),
enablestheperformanceofpractices(Shoveetal.2012).Thirdly,thatchangesinpracticesare
enabledbychangesintheunderlyingelementsandthelinksbetweenelements(Shoveetal.2012).
Finally,thatenergyconsumptionisaby-productoftheperformanceofpractices,whichisenabled
bythecomingtogetherofelements(Gram-Hanssen,2013).
Households,practices,andtheelementsofpracticesareconsideredasagentsintheHOPESmodel.
Theprocessesandtherulesdefinedinthemodel,whichunderpintheinteractionsbetweenagents,
arebasedonthetheoriesofpracticesliteratureandonempiricalevidence.TheHOPESmodelis
intendedtoservetwomainpurposes.Firstly,toprovideaclearspecificationoftheprocesseslinking
households,practicesandtheelementsofpractices.Secondly,tomodeltheinfluenceofthe
interactionsbetweenhouseholds,practicesandelementsontheenergyusepatternsofhouseholds.
Therestofthepaperisorganisedasfollows.Section2isanoverviewoftheagent-basedmodelling
approach.Section3isadescriptionoftheagents,processes,andrulesdefinedintheHOPESmodel.
Section4isanoverviewofothermodelsofsocialpractices,andlastly,section5summarisesthe
purposeoftheHOPESmodelandhighlightstheissuesforfurtherdiscussion.
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2Agentbasedmodelling:anoverview
Agent-basedmodellingisarecognisedmethodformodelling,simulatingandanalysingcomplex
phenomena(Gilbert&Troitzsch,2005).Anyreal-worldphenomenoncharacterizedbythecomplexnetwork
ofinteractionsbetweenoneormorecategoriesofsocialactors,suchasindividuals,households,
institutions,etc.,canbemodelledusinganagent-basedapproach.Therearetwomainentitiesinagentbasedmodels:(1)theagentsand(2)theenvironment.Agentsareentitiesthatrepresentthesocialactors
andenvironmentisthevirtualworld,whereagentsreside,act,andinteractwithoneanother(Gilbert,
2008).Agentscanexchangemessageswithoneanother,makedecisionsbasedonthesemessages,andact
basedontheoutcomesoftheirdecisions–allthiswithouttheneedforanycentralcoordination.Unlike
textualdescription,computationalmodellingwithitsprecisemodelspecificationsallowslessroomfor
misinterpretation(Gilbert&Troitzsch,2005).Hence,usingtheagent-basedmodellingapproachitispossible
todevelopaclearunderstandingofhowthemodelprocessesandrulesleadtotheemergenceofan
outcome,whichresemblesareal-worldphenomenon.
3Anagent-basedmodelofdomesticenergypractices
3.1Overviewofthemodel
Thispaperdescribesanagent-basedmodelcalledHouseholdsandPracticesinEnergyconsumption
Scenarios(HOPES).Themodeliscomposedofthreetypesofagents:households,practices,andthe
elementsofpractices.Thehouseholdagentsaredefinedbyattributessuchashousingtenure,house
type,energyappliances,occupancyandtheworkingpatternsofoccupants.Theelementagentsare
definedbythreeattributes:type,stateandvalue.Meaning,materialandcompetencesarethethree
typesofelementsconsidered(Shoveetal.,2012).Eachmaterialelementhasavaluedenotingan
objectneededtoperformapractice(cf.Shove&Walker,2007).Eachmeaningelementhasavalue
representingthesocialorsymbolicsignificanceofperformingapractice(cf.Shoveetal.,2012).Each
competenceelementhasavaluerepresentingaskillneededtocarryoutapractice.Thestate
attributeindicateshowactivelyanelementisbeingusedtoperformpractices.Forexample,oneof
theelementsintheHOPESmodelisawashingmachine(value),whichisamaterial(type)thatis
activelyused(state)forperforminglaundry.
DomesticenergypracticesarethethirdcategoryofagentsincludedintheHOPESmodel.While
initiallyitmightseempuzzlingtotreatpracticesasagents,Macy&Willer(2002)notethat
computationalagentsmustbecapableof:(1)makingdecisionsandactingindependently
(autonomy),(2)influencingandbeinginfluencedbyotheragentsinthesystem(interdependent),(3)
actingbasedonsimplerules,and(4)adaptingandlearningfromexperience.Practiceshavesimilar
characteristics:(1)practicespossessbothstructureandagency(Giddens,1984),(2)practiceshave
theabilitytoinfluenceoneanother(Narasimhanetal.,2015),(3)thecomingtogetherofelements
enablestheperformanceofpractices,and(4)changesintheelementsorthelinksbetween
elementsinfluenceschangesinthepractices,i.e.theyadaptovertime(Shoveetal.,2012).
ThepracticeagentsintheHOPESmodelhavetwopairsofattributes:activeandpastpractitioners
andactiveandpastelementconfigurations.Activepractitionerscomprisehouseholdsthatperforma
practiceatthecurrenttimestep,whilepastpractitionersarethosethatperformedthepracticein
previoustimesteps.Activeelementconfigurationsaretheelementsandthelinksbetweenelements
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enablingtheperformanceofapracticeatthecurrenttimestep,whiletheonesusedinprevious
timestepsarerecordedinthepastelementconfigurations.
AlltheagentsintheHOPESmodel(i.e.households,practicesandelements)co-exist,actandreactwithina
virtualenvironmentthatisdefinedbythefollowingattributes:adate,timeofthedayandoutsideweather.
Thevirtualenvironmentprovidesthemediumforhouseholds,practicesandtheelementsofpracticesto
interactwithandinfluenceoneanother.
3.2DescriptionoftheprocesseslinkingtheagentsintheHOPESmodel
TherearefourmainprocessesintheHOPESmodelresponsibleforgoverningtheinteractions
betweenhouseholds,practicesandtheelementsofpractices.Thesearecalledthechoose-elements
process,theperform-practicesprocess,theaudit-practicesprocessandtheadapt-elementsprocess,
respectively.Tobeginwith,thechoose-elementsprocessallowsahouseholdagenttochooseafew
appropriateelementsfromalloftheavailableelementsinthesystem.Theperform-practices
processthenchecksifahouseholdagenthastherightconfigurationofelementsneededtoperform
apractice.Ifyes,thenthehouseholdwillbeabletoperformthepracticebylinkingtogetherthe
appropriateelements.Ifnot,thenthehouseholdwillnotbeabletoperformthepractice.
Thechoose-elementsandperform-practicesprocessesmaybeexplainedwithanexample.Consider
thatattheendofthechoose-elementsprocess,ahouseholdagenthastheelementsnecessaryfor
dryingclothes,suchasatumbledryeroradryingrackoraheatedrail(material),thepracticalknowhowforusingtheequipment(skill)andaneedforcleanclothes(meaning).Theperform-practices
processwouldthenenablethehouseholdtodrytheclothesbylinkingtogetherthethreeelements.
However,ifthehouseholddidnothaveoneormoreoftheaforementionedelementsattheendof
thechoose-elementsprocess,thendryingclotheswouldnotbepossibleduringtheperformpracticesprocess.
Theaudit-practicesprocesskeepstrackofthenumberofpractitioners(activeandpast).Theprocess
alsokeepstrackoftheelementconfigurationsenablingtheperformanceofpractices(activeand
past)aswellastheelementsbeingsharedacrosspractices.Usingallthisinformation,theadaptelementsprocessupdatestheelementsinthesystem.Consequently,inthenextiterationofthe
simulation,thechoose-elementsprocesswillhavethehouseholdagentschoosefromanupdated
listofelements.Theprocessesinfluencingtheinteractionsbetweenhouseholds,elementsand
practicescontinueinacyclicmanner(Figure1).Fromrighttoleft,itcanbeseenthathousehold
agents(bottomlayer)drawtheelementstogether(middlelayer)toperformdifferentenergy
consumingdomesticsocialpractices(toplayer).Intheoppositedirection,itcanbeseenthatthe
repeatedperformanceofpracticescausestheelementstochange,whichinturninfluencesthe
futureperformanceofpractices.
3.3DescriptionoftherulesunderlyingtheprocessintheHOPESmodel
Agent-basedmodelshaverulesgoverningthedecision-making,theactionsandtheinteractionsof
agents.Inshort,rulesdeterminewhattheagentsdo(Gilbert,2008).Thissectionpresentstherules
involvedinthefourmainprocessesoftheHOPESmodel.Therulesarespecifiedusingaconditionactionformat,wherethereisaconditioncomponentthatmustbetruetoperformanactionoraset
5
ofactions.Anexampleofacondition-actionruleis“Iftheweatheriscold,thenIwillusethe
heater”.
Figure1:ThecyclicnatureoftheprocessesintheHOPESmodel
TherulesincludedintheHOPESmodelareinformedbyreal-worlddataobtainedfrom:(1)walking
interviewsconductedinover60households,(2)ahouseholdenergyusesurveyinvolving1000
respondents,and(3)anenergymonitoringstudyofover20households.Thedatafromthewalking
interviewshavebeenusedtoformulatetheruleslinkingelementstopractices.Theresultsofthe
energymonitoringstudyhavebeenusedtoformulaterulesgoverningthetemporalorderingof
practices.Thefindingsofthesurveyprovidedinsightsregardingthelikelihoodoftheperformanceof
practices.Therulesaredescribedbelow.
Thefollowingrulesareinvolvedinthechoose-elementsprocess,whichenablesahouseholdagent
tochooseaselectfewelementsfromthesystemateachtimestep:
1. Chooseelementsappropriatetotheoutsideweather.Thisruleallowsahouseholdagentto
choosetheelementsforperformingpracticesbasedontheoutdoorweatherconditions.For
example,householdsaremorelikelytouseanelectricheateroragascentralheatingsystem(a
materialelement)duringthewintermonthsthanthesummermonths.Similarly,householdsare
morelikelytowanttokeepwarm(ameaningelement)duringthewinterthanthesummer.
Henceevenifahouseholdisalwayscapableofoperatingtheheatingequipment(askillelement),
thematerialandmeaningelementsnecessaryforperformingtheheatingpracticearemorelikely
tobechosenduringthewintermonths.Consequently,theperform-practicesprocess,which
enablesthelinkingofelementstoperformapractice,willenablehouseholdstoperformthe
heatingpracticeonlyduringthewintermonths.
2. Chooseelementsbasedontenure,typeandoccupancy.Thisruleallowsahouseholdagentto
choosetheelementsforperformingpracticesbasedonhouseholdattributes,suchastenure,
typeandoccupancy.Forexample,terraced,semi-detachedordetachedhousesmayhavean
optionfordryingclothesonaline,whereasinflatsusingatumbledryeroraheatedrailmaybe
morepractical.
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3. Chooseelementsbasedonworkingpatterns.Thisrulecausestheworkingpatternsofoccupants
toinfluencethechoiceofelementsofahouseholdagent.Forexample,occupantsworkingfrom
homeduringthewintermonthsarelikelytousetheheatertokeepwarmwhileworking.
4. Chooseelementsbasedonsocialinteractions.Thisruleimpliesthathouseholdscaninfluence
oneanother’schoiceofelements.Forexample,itismorelikelyforahouseholdtoinstallsolar
panels,ifamajorityofotherneighbouringhouseholdshavealsoinstalledthem.
5. Chooseelementsbasedontargetedinformation.Thisruleimpliesthattheinformation
communicatedtohouseholdscaninfluencetheirchoiceofelements.Forexample,providing
adequateinformationaboutenergyefficientappliancesordevices(material),mayimprovethe
likelihoodofhouseholdspurchasing,andsubsequentlyusingthoseelementsforperformingthe
practices.
6. Chooseelementsbasedonthehistoryofpracticesperformed.Thisruleallowsahousehold
agenttochoosethesameorsimilarelementsacrossiterations,inordertorepeatthesame
practicesthatwereperformedpreviously.Forexample,ifitisthehabitofoccupantstousethe
shower(skillandmaterial)tomaintainpersonalhygiene(meaning),itishighlylikelythese
elementswouldbechosenrepeatedlyacrossiterationstoenabletheperformanceofthe
showeringpracticeeveryday.
Theperform-practicesprocessenablesthelinkingofappropriateelementstoperformthepractices.
Thefollowingrules,includedinthisprocess,enablethelinkingtogetherofelementsatan
appropriatedayandtime.
7. Confirmthattheelementsthathouseholdshaveareappropriateforperformingthepractices.
Thisruleactsasacheckpointtodetermineifattheendofthechoose-elementsprocessa
householdhastheelementsnecessaryforperformingthedifferentpractices.Asmentioned
previously(seerule1),ahouseholdwillbeabletoperformapracticeonlyifithastheright
combinationofmeaning,materialandskillelements.Thehouseholdwillnotbeabletoperforma
practiceifanyoftheelementsithasisnotsuitableforthatpractice.
Iftheapplicationofrulenumber7succeeds,thefollowingrules,alsoincludedintheperformpracticesprocess,enableahouseholdtoperformapracticeatthemostappropriatetime:
8. Performapracticeatanappropriatemonthoftheyear.Thisrulecausesthemonthoftheyear
(derivedfromthedateattributeoftheHOPESenvironment)toinfluencethetimeofthe
performanceofpractices.Forexample,theheatingpracticewillbeperformedinthewinter
monthsthaninthesummermonths.
9. Performapracticeatanappropriatedayoftheweek.Thisrulecausesthedayoftheweek
(weekend/weekday)toinfluencethetimeoftheperformanceofpractices.E.g.forworking
occupants,watchingTVduringmidmorningismorelikelytohappenontheweekendsthanon
weekdays.
10. Performapracticeatanappropriatetimeoftheday.Thisrulecausesthetimeoftheday(an
attributeoftheHOPESenvironment)toinfluencethetimeatwhichahouseholdperformsa
practice,i.e.aparticularhourinthe24-hourwindow.E.g.ifoccupantsworkfromhomeorstayat
homeduringthecoldermonths,itislikelyfortheheatingpracticetobeperformedduring
workinghoursonweekdays.
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Theaudit-practicesprocessintheHOPESmodelenableskeepingtrackoftheactiveandpast
practitionersandtheactiveandpastelementconfigurationsofpractices.Consequently,the
followingrulesincorporatedintheadapt-elementsprocess,causetheelementsinthesystemto
undergochangesovertime.
11. Adaptelementsbasedonevolution.Thisrulecausesanelementtoupdateitsstateattribute
basedonthenumberoftimesithasbeensuccessfullyusedtoperformthedifferentpractices.
Elementsthatarefrequentlyusedwillremainintheactivestate,whileelementsthatareused
lessfrequentlywillswitchtoadormantstate.Elementsthatremaininthedormantstateforlong
enoughwillswitchtoaninactivestate.Inactiveelementswilleventuallyberemovedfromthe
system.
12. Adaptelementsbasedoncrossover.Thisrulecausesanelementtoupdateitsvalueattribute
basedonallthedifferentpracticesitissuccessfullyusedfor.Valuesareupdatedusingagenetic
algorithmapproach(seep.218ofGilbert&Troitzsch,2005).Elementsbelongingtothesametype
(i.e.meaning,materialorskill)thatarethemostfrequentlyusedwillbecrossedovertoproduce
newerelementsthatsharethecharacteristicsofbothparentelements.Asanillustrationofthis,
initiallycomputerswereexclusivelyusedforthepurposeofcomputationandTVswere
exclusivelyusedforentertainment.Nowadaystabletcomputersareusedforbothcomputation
andentertainment.Thereisasenseinwhichtabletcomputershavesomeofthecharacteristics
ofbothcomputers(parentmaterial1)andTVs(parentmaterial2).
Rules1-12arerepeatedlyappliedateverysimulationtimestep.Togetherwiththedifferent
practicesperformed,thetypeofenergyappliancesusedbyhouseholds(providedasinputtothe
HOPESmodel)influencestheactualamountofenergyconsumedbyhouseholds.Figure2showsthe
linksbetweentheprocessesandtherulesintheHOPESmodel.
Figure2ProcessesandrulesintheHOPESmodel
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3.4Bringingitalltogether:theHOPESmodelconcept
Figure3bringstogetherallthecomponentsoftheHOPESmodel:theagentsandtheirenvironment
(seesection3.1),thecoreprocessesofthemodel(seesection3.2)andthespecificrulesincludedin
theprocesses(seesection3.3).Thefigurealsoshowstheinputsprovidedtothemodelandthe
outputobtainedfromthemodel.Datapertainingtothedemographicsofhouseholdsandtheenergy
appliancesusedmaybeprovidedasinput.Theactualamountofenergyconsumed(inkWh)for
performingthepracticescanbeobtainedastheoutput.
4Othermodelsofsocialpractices
Therearecurrentlytwoagent-basedapproachestomodelsocialpractices.Thefirstoneconsiders
socialpracticesasanemergentphenomenon.Hence,whenusingthisapproach,practicesemergeas
aconsequenceoftheinteractionsbetweentheothercomponentsofthesystem.Thesecond
approachistoconsiderpracticesthemselvesasacategoryofagentsinthemodel.
Theagent-basedmodelproposedbyHoltz(2012a,2014)isanexampleofthefirstapproach.Holtz
(2012b)conductedastudyaboutmeatconsumptionpractices,basedonwhichheproposedthatthe
conceptofcoherenceprovidesagoodbasisformodellingtheemergenceandthespreadofsocial
practices.Hedefinedcoherenceasthelevelofagreementbetweenthedifferenttypesofelements
insuchamannerastoenablepractitionerstocarryoutapracticesmoothly.Holtzthen
implementedanagent-basedmodeltosimulatetheemergenceofsocialpractices.Inthemodel,the
levelofcoherenceachievedwhenelementscometogetherandthelevelofhabituation(i.e.
individuals’familiaritywithapractice)areconsideredtoinfluencetheemergenceofanabstract
socialpractice(Holtz,2012a,2014).Ontheotherhand,Balkeetal.(2014)andNarasimhanetal.
(2015)areexamplesofthesecondapproach,wherepracticesthemselvesareconsideredasagents
inthesystem.TheHOPESmodelproposedinthispaperisanextensionofthesetwoearliermodels.
Inessence,themaindifferencebetweenthetwoapproachesisthatonefocusesonexplainingthe
emergenceofasocialpractice,whiletheotherattemptstoexplaintheshort-termandthelong-term
trajectoriesofpractices.Infuture,theapproachesmaybecombinedinanattempttounderstand
thecompletelifecycleofpractices.
5Discussionandfuturework
TheHOPESmodelisintendedtoservetwopurposes.Firstly,toimproveourunderstandingoftheprocesses
linkinghouseholdsandpracticesinarecursivefashion,whichinturngivesinsightintotheshort-termand
long-termtrajectoriesofpractices.Thesecondgoalistounderstandtheinfluenceoftheperformance,the
repetition,andthereproductionofpracticesondomesticenergyusepatterns.Itisexpectedthatthe
HOPESmodelcanbeusedasatooltoexaminehowapractice-centricapproachcanbeusedtoencourage
householdstoadopteffectiveshort-termchanges(e.g.performinglaundryduringtheoff-peakhours)and
long-termchangesintheperformanceofpractices,e.g.usingthecommunallaundryservices,district
heatingservices,oralteredworkingpractices.Nonetheless,itisalsoimportanttodetermineifthe
proposedmodelisstructurallyrealistic,meaningthemodelincludesjustthekeystructuresandprocesses
requiredfortheorganizationofarealsystem,whilenotbeingasextensiveastherealsystemitself(cf.
Railsback&Grimm,2011).IncaseofHOPES,itisimportanttodetermineifthemodelcapturestheessential
aspectsofasystemofenergyconsumingsocialpractices.Onewaytoachievethiswouldbetovalidateand
9
improvetheHOPESmodelbasedonstakeholderfeedback(e.g.frompracticetheoristsandexpertsfrom
theenergyindustry).Anotherapproachistouserealworldenergyconsumptiondatatoguidetheprocess
ofmodeldevelopment.ThisisreferredtoasPattern-orientedmodelling(Railsback&Grimm,2011).The
rulescurrentlydefinedintheHOPESmodelareinformedbyreal-worlddata.However,parameterisationof
therulescouldbeimprovedfurtherusingexistingandadditionaldatasources.Theseareavenuesforfuture
work.
Figure3TheHOPESmodelconcept
6Acknowledgements
TheauthorsthankMariaXenitidouforprovidingvaluableinsightsfromtheWholeSEMhousehold
energysurvey.TheUKEngineeringandPhysicalSciencesResearchCouncilsupportedthiswork
throughtheWholeSystemsEnergyModellingConsortium(WholeSEM)project(grant
EP/K039326/1).
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