Consultation
Response to the ONS consultation
on the household projections for
England
30th June 2017
Office for National Statistics
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Response to the ONS consultation on the household projections for England
Introduction
This document summarises the responses received to the consultation on the proposed changes
to household projections and what actions the Office for National Statistics (ONS) plan to take.
The consultation ran from 31 January 2017 to 13 March 2017 and gave users an opportunity to
provide feedback on the proposed changes to the household projections methodology and on what
outputs they need from the household projections. The consultation document is available to
download from the ONS website.
The consultation was conducted in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
Background
Household projections project the number of households in England and its local authority districts
for 25 years ahead from the base year and are produced every two years. They are used as part of
the assessment of future housing need and demand. The most recent set are the 2014-based
household projections published in July 2016.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently took over the responsibility for producing
household projections from the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). The
transfer of responsibility should help to further improve the consistency between the household
projections and the national and subnational population projections and also allow us to make
some efficiencies in their production.
There were two objectives to the consultation. The first objective was to get your views on the
changes that we propose to make to the household projections methodology following the transfer
of responsibility to us. The second objective was to improve our understanding of what you needed
from the household projections and related outputs.
We are grateful to everyone who took time to respond to the consultation. We had a good
response to the consultation and received many detailed replies. This feedback from users with
experience of using household projections is invaluable to us and will help us to develop the
household projections in a way that will continue to meet your needs.
Summary of responses and our actions
In total, 42 consultation responses were received from a variety of organisations including local
authorities, county councils, central government, house building and research groups. We also
received responses from a number of academics and private individuals. A full list of organisations
that responded can be found in Annex A.
The key points to note from the responses to the consultation are:
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Users welcomed the transfer of responsibility for household projections to ONS which
would help develop their consistency with the national and subnational population
projections.
Users felt that household projections should continue to be regarded as a robust starting
point for assessing future housing need.
Some users were concerned about the proposal to project the household representative
rates using only the 2001 and 2011 Censuses and asked ONS to consider and report on a
number of alternative options.
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Response to the ONS consultation on the household projections for England
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Issues surrounding other aspects of the methodology were raised including concern about
the proposal for removing gender and marital status from the projection model and the age
groups currently used in the model.
Users asked for variant household projections at local authority level.
Users asked ONS to publish the household projections at the level of detail previously
published by DCLG.
There was an interest in what household types would be available in the outputs.
As a result of this consultation, we will take the following actions:
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We will move to using the standard 2011 Census definition for Household Reference
Person as soon as possible.
We will set up a programme of research to look at how the methodology can be improved in
the light of the feedback from this consultation. Topics to be covered in this research are
described in the Detailed responses and our actions section below.
We will establish a Household Projections Collaborative Group, including experts from
within and outside ONS, to advise and work with us on this research and the longer-term
development of the household projections.
We will use the current methods as a starting point for the next release of the projections in
Summer 2018. The programme of research, and the Collaborative Group, will help us to
identify improvements to the methods that we could make in time for that release.
We will retain the current level of detail in published outputs and seek further evidence of
requirements for variant projections.
It is important that we are able to research the impact of any changes that are made to the
household projections methodology before they are implemented. The longer term programme of
research will give us the time to fully investigate what improvements can be made to the household
projections methodology.
The following sections consider in more detail how users responded to the key issues and how we
intend to act on this information.
Detailed responses and our actions
Use of the 2011 Census definition for household reference person
projections
Users were asked for their views on the proposal to use the 2011 Census definition for household
reference person, which is broadly the oldest economically active person. Their views included:
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A number of respondents (11) said that they were happy with the proposal to use the 2011
Census definition of household reference person.
A small number of respondents (6) said that the definition for household reference person
should be consistent with the definition to be used in the 2021 census. Some suggested
that the household reference person should be the oldest person in the household to
address any possible future inconsistencies. There was concern that use of the 2011
Census definition would result in incompatibility with earlier censuses.
A small number of respondents (5) acknowledged the work being taken forward by the
Administrative Data Sources Division to look at the feasibility of producing estimates of
occupied households using council tax data and said that the definitions used in the
projections should be consistent with that work.
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Response to the ONS consultation on the household projections for England
Our response
We will move to using the standard 2011 Census definition for Household Reference Person (as
shown in the Census Glossary), as soon as this is consistent with the rest of the projections
methodology. This will improve the transparency of the projections and increase coherence with
other standard population statistics. We have no current plans to change the definition for
Household Reference Person in the 2021 Census from that which was used in the 2011 Census.
Use of an age only projection model
Users were asked for their views on our proposal to remove the split by gender and marital status
from the household representative rate and to project the rate for quinary age groups only. Their
views included:
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A number of respondents (7) said that they were content with the proposal to use an ageonly model.
A number of respondents (12) were unhappy with the proposal to remove gender from the
projected household representative rates and asked to see what the implications would be
of removing it from the model. There was concern that losing both gender and marital
status would mean that information on how these two factors drive household formation
would be lost.
A number of respondents (9) supported the proposal to remove marital status from the
projected household representative rates either because they felt it to be a poor indicator of
household formation or because of the unreliability of the marital status projections which
have not been updated since 2010. A very small number of respondents (2) felt that marital
status was a good indicator of household formation and wanted to see it retained in the
model.
A number of respondents (9) said that the quinary age groups used in the model were not
appropriate for young adults, students and the elderly population where they felt there was
greater variation in how households were formed. Suggestions included changing the 15-19
group to 16-19 and expanding the 85+ group to include 85-89 and 90+.
Our response
We will conduct further research, in conjunction with the Household Projections Collaborative
Group, into the proposal to remove marital status and, in particular, gender from modelled
Household Representative Rates to ensure that such a change would improve, rather than
damage, the quality of the projections.
We will also consider some changes in the age groups used in the model: specifically, whether the
15-19 group should be changed to 16-19 and whether the highest age group should be changed to
90+ (improving coherence with the population estimates and subnational population projections).
Move to a one stage production approach using Census data from 2001
and 2011 only
Users were asked for their views on our proposal to move to a one stage production approach
using only the 2001 and 2011 Censuses to project the household representative rates. Previously
Census data from 1971 to 2011 was used to project household numbers in stage one and Census
data from 2001 and 2011 was used to project household numbers by household type in stage two.
The projected household numbers by household type produced in stage two were then constrained
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Response to the ONS consultation on the household projections for England
to the projected household numbers in stage one. The new one stage approach would use only
Census data from 2001 and 2011 to project the total number of households and by household
type. User views included:
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A number of respondents (15) considered using data from only two Censuses to be
insufficient. Some respondents said that a longer trend was needed to smooth out events
such as the recent recession, the expansion of the European Union and also any
inaccuracies that may have occurred in the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. There was a view
that only using the 2001 and 2011 Censuses would result in a downward trend in
household formation for the younger age groups, which in turn would downplay the need for
housing for younger people.
A number of respondents (11) asked for further work to understand the impact of any new
methods. Some (5) also asked to have the opportunity to comment on a number of
alternative options for projecting the household representative rate using census data.
Some respondents (7) suggested that using data from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses,
supplemented by survey data, would be a better way of projecting the household
representative rate.
A small number of respondents (4) suggested that more recent data is used. Suggestions
included giving greater weight to the Labour Force Survey or using a shorter period of
recent data to match the methodology used to produce the subnational population
projections, which uses a shorter time period to project trends.
A number of respondents (6) asked to see the research note mentioned in the consultation
document that would show whether the move to a one stage approach using a shorter
period of Census data would be reliable. Respondents also asked for ONS to publish some
research on the factors that drive household formation. They also asked for research on
the methods used by other organisations to produce household projections.
Some respondents (10) asked for a review of the methods used by Wales, Scotland and
Northern Ireland to produce household projections. They said that adoption of similar
methods would develop consistency and enable comparisons to be made.
A number of respondents (5) felt that a simplification of the methodology would make it
easier to explain to others. A small number (4) felt that the proposed methodology was
oversimplified or too mechanistic, or that they preferred the current two stage methodology.
The methodology used to constrain and its impact in some areas was also raised.
Our response
We will consider, with the help of the Household Projections Collaborative Group, a number of
options for using Census data in projecting household representative rates including the use of
Census data from 1991, 2001 and 2011. We will also consult with the devolved administrations on
how household projections are produced for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and consider
whether we should adopt any aspects of their methodologies, recognising the advantages of
consistent approaches across the countries of the UK.
We will investigate whether the preferred model allows a one-stage production approach,
recognising that such an approach could improve the transparency of the projections.
Household projections and your needs
Users were asked for their views on the household projection outputs that we propose to publish.
Their views included:
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Response to the ONS consultation on the household projections for England
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A number of respondents (8) asked for a methodology document with sufficient detail to
enable users to replicate the household projections. They asked that this document is then
updated to reflect any subsequent changes to the methodology.
A number of respondents (9) said that they found the Quality and Methodology Information
(QMI) document and the statistical release useful.
A number of respondents (10) said that they wanted to continue to access the detailed
unrounded data previously published by DCLG for use in their own analysis. Some users
need this data for their own models using Chelmer or Popgroup. A number of users asked
for aggregated totals by region.
Comparisons with previous sets of projections were considered useful by a number of
respondents (13).
Variant household projections were requested by a number of respondents (8) using either
the variant national population projections, different housing supply scenarios or different
household representative rates adjusted to reflect suppression in specific age groups.
The majority of respondents (25) said that the output in Excel and / or csv was sufficient for
their needs while a small number asked for the data in alternative formats such as xml or
via an API.
A small number of respondents (3) asked that previous releases of the household
projections continued to be easily accessible and that datasets prior to 1991 were also
made available.
Our response
We intend to publish the 2016-based household projections in Summer 2018. This will include a
statistical bulletin, methodology and QMI documents and all the datasets currently available to
users. We will continue to make the outputs available in csv and xls format and will investigate
accessibility in other open-data formats and via an API. We will ensure that users are able to
access earlier releases of the household projections easily.
We will seek further evidence of requirements for variant projections and consider how these could
be disseminated.
General comments
We received a number of other comments relating to the methodology and our approach to the
household projections. These comments included:
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There was interest in the types of households to be presented in the next release and a
number of respondents (7) asked for more information on this. This included requests for
household type by size and identification of single person, lone parent and multiple
generation households. The relationships within households was said to be important
where there is dependency between children or the elderly and other household members.
Users said that household composition was important to ensure that the right type of
housing was built.
A small number of respondents (3) suggested that ONS should review the assumptions that
are used for the number of people aged under and over 75 who are resident in communal
establishments, necessary for obtaining the projected private household population.
Future housing policy or the availability of housing is not incorporated in the projections
model and this was raised by a small number of respondents (5) as a weakness of the
current method which should be stated in any guidance. There was a view that the
shortage of housing has constrained the formation of households for several decades.
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Response to the ONS consultation on the household projections for England
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A small number of respondents (5) suggested that we develop the methods with guidance
from an expert group formed of experienced users of the household projections.
Our response
We intend to publish the 2016-based household projections using the 8 household types that were
used by DCLG in the 2014-based household projections. Users have expressed an interest in
alternative ways of describing household types including household type by size and we will take
this forward as part of our future work programme. We will also look at the assumptions that we
use for the number of people who are resident in communal establishments, which feeds into the
projection of the private household population.
We recognise that the household projections are based on past trends in household formation and
do not take account of the availability of housing in an area. This means that they project the
number of households that there will be in the future if the availability of housing was not a
constraint. So while they may help to assess future housing need, they may be less useful to users
that want a forecast of the number of households in an area. Whilst the projections will continue to
be designed to meet the first of these uses we will consider the feasibility of, and user requirement
for, new statistics designed to meet the second use.
We have set up the Household Projections Collaborative Group, including experts on this topic
within and outside ONS, to advise on, and contribute to, the development of new methods for the
projections. We also keep the Population Subgroup of the Central and Local Information
Partnership (CLIP) Group informed of our work. This group includes representatives from both
local and central government.
A number of other comments were received in response to the consultation and these will be
considered as the household projections are developed.
Further information
For further information on household projections for England, please contact:
Stakeholder Engagement Team
Population Statistics Division
Office for National Statistics
Segensworth Road
Titchfield
Fareham
Hampshire
PO15 5RR
Tel: +44 (0)1329 444661
Email: [email protected]
Background information
The consultation document on proposed changes to the household projections for England is
available on the National Statistics website.
The household projections methodology report provides background information on the current
methodology and data sources that are used to produce the household projections.
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Response to the ONS consultation on the household projections for England
The household projections are produced on a consistent basis across all local authorities in
England. The 2014-based household projections for England published on 12 July 2016 are based
on the 2014- based subnational population projections published on 26 May 2016 which are
consistent at a national level with the 2014-based national population projections for England.
Assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration at local authority level in the
2014-based subnational population projections are based upon recent observed trends from the
components of change which are published with the latest mid-year population estimates.
The assumptions underlying the household projections are based on demographic trends. They
are not forecasts, for example, they do not attempt to predict the impact of future Government
policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors that might influence household growth.
The projections show the household numbers that would result if the assumptions based in
previous demographic trends in the population and rates of household formation were to be
realised in practice.
The household projections have been designed with the intention of best meeting user
requirements. We welcome any comments or suggestions on these.
Annex A: Organisations that responded
We are grateful to everyone who supported and contributed to our consultation on the household
projections. Organisations that responded are listed below.
Barton Willmore
Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council
Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council
Bournemouth Borough Council
Bristol City Council
Campaign to Protect Rural England Hampshire
Cheshire East Council
Cheshire West and Chester Council
City of London Corporation
Department for Transport
Department for Work and Pensions
Greater London Authority
Hampshire County Council
Hertfordshire County Council
Home Builders Federation
Kent County Council
Lichfields
London Borough of Camden
Manchester City Council
Migration Watch UK
Ministry of Justice
National Records of Scotland
North Yorkshire County Council
Office for Budget Responsibility
Open Data Institute Leeds
Pegasus Group
Regeneris Consulting
Resolution Foundation
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Response to the ONS consultation on the household projections for England
Richmond and Wandsworth Councils
Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames
Staffordshire County Council
Tees Valley Combined Authority
University of Manchester
Watford Borough Council
Worcestershire County Council
Getting in Touch
If you would like to make any comments about the consultation process we have followed, please
contact:
Genevra Morrison-Hutton
Communication Division
Office for National Statistics
2nd floor, 1 Drummond Gate
London SW1V 2QQ
For further information on ONS consultations, please visit the Consultation Hub.
Accessibility
All material relating to this consultation can be provided in braille, large print or audio formats on
request. British Sign Language interpreters can also be requested for any supporting events.
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