Qualitative modeling for complexe
multidisciplinary environmental Issues
Contribution to FLERMONECA workshop
Environmental reporting, forecasting and near-to-real time data
Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 23th April - 24th April
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Qualitative modeling for
complex multidisciplinary
environmental Issues
Introduction und hands-on explanation
Qualitative modeling for complexe multidisciplinary environmental Issues
Complicated versus complex world
See EEA Report ‚The European environment – state and outlook 2010: Synthesis’
and Fuerth & Faber, 2013 ,Anticipatory Governance – practical Upgrades’
Complicated problems




Originate from isolated causes that are
clearly identifiable
Can be dissected into isolated chunks
Consequences are generally proportionate
to their causes
Fixtures can be put in place for permanent
solutions
Complex or „wicked“ problems
Result from concurrent interactions
along multiple systems of events
 Cannot be broken apart and solved
piece-by-piece. They must be understood
and addressed as a system
 Do not automatically stabilise

Qualitative modeling for complexe multidisciplinary
environmental Issues
Reasons for qualitative modeling
Our brain is able to recognize
at maximum four changing
factors only!
But environmental systems
are often much more
complex!
Qualitative modeling
supports to look for
trans-disciplinary
 joint understanding
 impact chains and
 causal loops
Qualitative modeling for complexe multidisciplinary environmental Issues
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How to practice qualitative modeling?
A four step manual:
I.
Task description of target, restrictions, boundaries, timeline
II. Calling for the factor with strong and strongest direct
influence
III. Defining all factors and parameters and there interaction with
impact lines, setting their timing
IV. Finally generating the automatically produced learning matrix
of the system for the factors of interest
The learning matrix shows change of influence of impact within the system per
time versus the total effect on short-, medium and long-term
Qualitative modeling for complexe multidisciplinary environmental Issues
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Contact
Alexander Storch
[email protected]
++43 (0)1 313 04 5965
Environment Agency Austria, Vienna
www.umweltbundesamt.at
FLERMONECA Workshop
Tashkent ■ April 24th to April 25th, 2015
Qualitative modeling for complexe multidisciplinary environmental Issues
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