Transition Read #5
PLAYING WITH SCIENCE
How to turn an agent-based model into
a game that supports system thinking?
When do we stop playing? As a child, play was as essential to our development as food
or water. We explored our world and relationships through play – travelling to imaginary
lands and effortlessly through time, testing new perspectives through role play, making
friends and negotiating relationships, learning how to deal with social order, conflict
and obstacles. Somewhere on the path to adulthood, play – for most of us - starts to
take a backseat to other forms of social engagement and interaction until it almost
disappears completely.
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From understanding to interactive learning
“The city that plays
together, stays
together.” - Julian
Baggini, journalist
Luckily we’ve seen a delightful trend of reversal in cities all over the world:
the reintroduction of play in the public realm. Artists, performers, urban
designers, and even city governments have started to re-introduce the
mechanisms of play – both physical and intellectual - to encourage people
to interact and engage with one another.
There have been a wide range of interventions all over the world, from
interactive art installations, like Candy Chang’s seminal “I Wish This
Was...” community engagement project in New Orleans, to temporary
space changes, like a street length Park and Slide in downtown Bristol,
England, to tests, like the Piano Stairs in Stockholm, Sweden, to see how
elements of play can influence or change people’s behaviour.
The ARTS project, a 3-year research project examining how sustainability
transitions can be accelerated to encourage the change necessary to be a
sustainable, low-carbon society, also explored how play can be used as a
method to accelerate change. Project researchers developed a “serious
game” for transition initiatives and government officials to play – optimally,
together - to help them better understand the mechanisms of sustainability
transition and how to best develop strategies for acceleration. Ultimately,
the game is intended to be a support tool for policy discussions – and a
fun way to talk about sometimes tedious or intellectually challenging
issues.
A “serious game” is a game designed for a purpose
other than pure entertainment. They are used for
education and awareness raising in a range of fields,
including military training, health care or city
planning. But just because it is a “serious game”
doesn’t mean that it isn’t fun to play.
The (computer) models behind the scenes
The game developed as part of the ARTS project is a multi-player role
playing game that uses a computer model to evaluate player-generated
scenarios. It can be played by teams up to 10 people, accompanied by a
facilitator who has experience with modelling and – preferably – a good
understanding of the transition acceleration mechanisms identified by the
ARTS project.
So how do you play the ARTS game?
The objective of the game is for each transition initiative team to accelerate
change in their city-region, while at the same time strengthening their own
position.
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They can achieve their goal with (or without) collaboration among
initiatives, and with (or without) the help of the supporting institutions.
Each session starts with the introduction by the facilitator to explain the
models on which the game is built. Two models were developed by the
ARTS research team to capture transition acceleration dynamics:
•
a qualitative Single Transition Initiative Model (STI), used to
illustrate complex relationships within the city-region system, and
•
a quantitative Multiple Transition Initiative Model (MTI), used to
simulate the impact of different choices made by transition
initiatives operating within this system.
The STI is a simplified Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) that illustrates the main
relationships of one transition initiative with its environment, made up of
other initiatives and the city-regional context. To do that, it builds upon the
five acceleration mechanisms identified as part of the ARTS research. The
CLD shows e.g. how different choices transition initiatives make affect the
number of people each initiative can reach and identifies positive or
negative feedback loops.
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Causal Loop Diagram used by the Single
Transition Initiative model
What is an AgentBased Model?
The MTI model is an agent-based model, where each agent represents an
individual initiative. The MTI model essentially takes the STI model and
adds the interactive element, asking the following questions:
● under which conditions are transition initiatives likely to interact?
● what are the different ways of interacting?
● what happens as a result of these interactions?
The interactive model simulates what may happen when a transition
initiative makes a series of choices, considering that other actors active in
this environment (e.g. other transition initiatives or a local government)
make their own choices too.
Agent-based models consist of agents that interact within an environment.
Agents are either separate computer programs or, more commonly,
distinct parts of a program that are used to represent social actors –
individual people, organizations such as firms, or bodies such as nation
states. They are programmed to react to the computational environment in
which they are located, where this environment is a model of the real
environment in which the agents operate. (Source: Gilbert, N., and
Troitzsch, K. G. (2005). Simulation for the Social Scientist (2nd edition).
Open University Press. Berkshire, UK)
Both models were developed using empirical research from the ARTS
project, but they both have been simplified so that the game doesn’t get
bogged down in theoretical detail and take too much time to understand
and play. This was one of the biggest challenges for researchers:
determining how much information to provide. It has to be simple enough
to be accessible to people with no modelling experience without “dumbing
down” the inherent complexity of the model.
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Teams, roles and activities
Once the facilitator introduces the idea of a system represented by a
model, explaining how different types of actors, activities and relationships
between them, the real game can begin. Participants are divided into
teams – each with an access to a separate laptop – representing different
transition initiatives and institutions that support them, such as local
governments or community development organisations. Each team
receives a role description outlining their aims and possible choices, as
illustrated by the examples below. The facilitator informs each team of their
starting situation, e.g. the number of members and users or the amount of
financial resources and time available.
Extract from a role description card:
City Park Initiative
CITY PARK
Establis hed Transition Initiative
ABOUT YOUR INITIATIVE
Your initiative manages a city-park, promoting environmental
awareness and engagement. Your initiative acts as an
umbrella organization for other nature-based initiatives,
amongst others by offering demo-sites.
STATUS AND AIMS
• Consolidate success
• Reach out to people ‘outside the sustainability bubble’
Your initiative has been doing quite well over the past years.
You reached a high number of users and have a high visibility.
You are well organised and have quite a reasonable amount of
resources and manpower available to undertake various
activities. Your first aim is to maintain this status quo.
Yet, you feel your impact on society could be greater. Your
activities have up till now primarily reached ‘green’ people with
already sustainability oriented values and beliefs. Therefore
your second aim is to reach out to people ‘outside the
sustainability bubble’, creating awareness among people who
are generally not so involved with the issue of sustainability.
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Extract from a role description card:
Supporter
SUPPORTER
As a municipality, you are strongly committed to the transition
to a sustainable, low-carbon society. In your city-region there
are a number of local initiatives with the potential to contribute
to this transition. However, their impact remains limited.
Therefore, your aim is to stimulate and support these local
initiatives in such a way that the transition to a low-carbon
society is accelerated.
YOUR OPTIONS
To reach your goals, you may consider the following options:
• Distribute grants
• Support professionalisation of local initiatives
• Create supportive policies and infrastructure
Once the roles are clear, each transition initiative team receives a set of 5
cards representing different activities in which they can choose to invest
their resources (financial and members time). These are e.g. general
awareness raising, professionalisation of the initiative’s operations or
fundraising. There are also 2 extra cards: coupling/partnering and
lobbying. The partnering card makes it possible to carry out some of the
activities together with other initiatives but their willingness to cooperate is
not guaranteed. The lobbying card allows the initiative to ask for different
types of support but it is up to supporters to decide whether this request
can be granted, depending on the competition and resources available.
This uncertainty makes the decision whether to engage in lobbying or
partnering a strategic choice that needs to be carefully considered.
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Extract from an activity card: Fundraising
FUNDRAISING
Activity Card
You are applying for a grant from external resources (national,
regional, EU level).
OPPORTUNITIES
You may collect funds to be used for future activities. Keep in
mind that your chances are higher if you have higher
organisational skills.
RISKS
Fundraising is always a lottery and you might return emptyhanded.
TIME COST: 15
MONEY COST: 5
Extract from an activity card: Outreach
OUTREACH
Activity Card
This activity increases your visibility.
OPPORTUNITIES
If you become visible to potential users and members, you may
increase your membership and user base.
RISKS
If the problem perception in your city-region is low, the effect
of increasing visibility of your initiative remains limited.
TIME COST: 10
MONEY COST: 10
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And then it gets complicated
After every round, the facilitator inputs the activities of all players into the
MTI computer model and the model simulates the consequences of those
choices. The results can be monitored by each team thanks to an online
dashboard that updates after each round the number of members and
users, the amount of resources available, as well as level of organisational
skills and the degree to which policy and infrastructure are supportive to
the initiative’s goals. The live feedback is very important as it lets the
teams adjust their strategies as the game progresses.
Each team can play up to 2 cards in every round, e.g. partnering and
outreach meaning that the initiative decides to convince other initiatives to
engage in joint outreach activities. These choices are also reflected in a
set-up of the room where the game is played, with special tables
dedicated respectively to partnership discussions and individual meetings
with supporters.
This part is really the heart of the game, illustrating how our choices
interrelate with those of others. Demonstrating how success of one
initiative depends on the decisions made by others is one of the key aims
of the game. For instance, it became apparent that some initiatives that
focus on promoting themselves in order to attract more supporters depend
on other initiatives that invest in raising general sustainability awareness
and in this way prepare the ground for more focused campaigns.
Sample dashboard: this is what each team
can see after every round
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The game usually continues for a few rounds, including a short debrief
after each of them and a longer one at the end, with a whole session
lasting ideally around 3 hours. During a debrief, the facilitator discusses
the choices made by the players and the results of the simulation, asking
them to relate it to their real-life experience.
Testing the game with ARTS regions
The research team has tested the game with five different groups in four of
the ARTS regions (Dresden, Genk, Stockholm and Brighton). The groups
consisted of a mix of participants representing transition initiatives, local
governments, and academic institutions – all of whom had experience
and/or an interest in sustainable transition, but not necessarily in
modelling.
The researchers tweaked the game a little after each session to improve
the presentation and flow of the game as well as to reflect on the different
regional conditions. However, the changes were minimal and the game
has largely stayed in its original format. The team distributed a
questionnaire to gather feedback about the session and learn how the
process can be improved.
The overwhelming majority of participants found the game to be fun and
interesting. Over 4/5 of the participants found it to be somewhat realistic,
with no one claiming it to be either completely realistic or unrealistic. On
the other hand, it is important to understand that quantitative models like
the one powering the ARTS game can only really be used to facilitate a
discussion about system behaviour and the potential for change in
different city-regions. They do not predict the future; they can only make
educated guesses about what might happen under certain conditions.
“Overall, it was an interesting learning experience. The game
shows that the actions of individual transition initiatives impact the
system as a whole.” Player feedback
The power of the tool is to use the concept of the game to educate and
facilitate productive discussions about accelerating transitions, particularly
if there is a diverse pool of players from public, private, and civil society,
which may lead to policy changes, stronger connections, and
brainstorming new ideas. Most participants were comfortable or somewhat
comfortable playing the game, but one or two people found it
uncomfortable. This was related to the necessity to digest relatively
complex information related to the model, hence the step-by-step visual
presentation of the causal loop diagram (even if the information is also
included in the activity cards).
The researchers’ experience and participants’ feedback show that the
presentation of the game is crucial for maximising its learning potential.
Bearing in mind the limited time usually available for such workshops,
engaging a group of people relatively new to the matter in a discussion on
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Therefore, even more effort needs to be put into the streamlining of game
design, including introduction, debriefing, and reflection. It seems that in
order to enhance its potential for engagement, the game should be made
simpler, more intuitive and preferably less computer-based. On the other
hand, this poses a question of balance, of how to make it user-friendlier
while still covering the dynamics of acceleration in a sufficiently thorough
way.
However, with good facilitation, the current version of the game can offer a
number of valuable insights to the participants. Already the experience of
collective learning about system dynamics can be inspiring to local actors.
The multi-player setting offers an interesting contrast to the way most
initiatives develop their future strategies. Working alone and using “static”
tools such as stakeholder mapping, a single initiative is not able to
respond in real time to the changing strategies of other actors. By inviting
different local stakeholders to the same room and engaging them in a
collective planning process, even if only in a fictitious context created by
the game, the ARTS researchers seeked to create a personal experience
of being part of a system.
“The game helps to reflect on developments over time and the
order in which certain activities are best carried out, e.g. whether
to first invest in professionalisation and fundraising and only
afterwards adopt a growth strategy” Player feedback
The discussions in between the rounds and after the game raised a
number of questions related to the strategies of individual actors and their
system-wide impact. One of the commonly raised dilemmas was a choice
between strengthening the organisation, e.g. through investing in
professionalisation, and growing the user base through outreach activities.
This reflects a tension between alternative acceleration strategies focusing
on fast but possibly risky growth patterns versus slower but probably more
sustainable growth. Another recurring topic was the question of
collaboration between transition initiatives and supporters such as local or
regional governments. In many sessions this cooperation seemed difficult,
to a certain extent reflecting real-life dynamics. Observing those difficulties
during a game session triggered discussions on how they might be
overcome so that the effectiveness of support can be enhanced.
To play or not to play?
The ARTS game was an experiment that combined primary research and
theory and put it into practice to provide a proof of concept. The result was
a rudimentary – but engaging – way to educate policy makers,
practitioners and citizens about systems thinking and sustainability
transition and how it can be effectively scaled and accelerated in cities,
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with ample of opportunities to be further improved and get more out of its
potential.
The 3 main benefits of using the game as part of local reflection process
can be summarised as follows:
●
introduction to systems thinking, allowing the participants to focus
on relationships and possible interdependencies between different
actors or elements relevant for the regional context,
●
possibility to verify existing assumptions (e.g. that growing number
of members translates to stronger impact) and test strategies,
forcing the participants to ask new questions and reflect upon them
as a community,
●
opportunity to bring key actors together in an attractive, informal
setting, providing space for interaction and building trust
(especially as the game can revolve around fictitious challenges,
temporarily taking away the focus from the current ones).
However, in order to make the most out of the game’s potential, a further
development would be beneficial. The ARTS research team will make the
simulation model and all game materials available online so that anyone
willing to test or further develop the game can contribute to this project.
The main issue when it comes to working with models is always to manage
the expectations. Those who expect plug and play oracle that gives clear
yes or no answers will inevitably be disappointed. The beauty of models
lies in their ability to force us to question our assumptions, to keep asking
“what if” and to acknowledge that the right answer changes with the
parameters we set. All these qualities become even more valuable when
experienced collectively, in a playful and informal setting. Discussing
“what if” with a group people who can work alongside you to make this
desired future a reality – this is what the ARTS game was all about.
Game on!
This Transition Read was based on the following papers:
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•
Pieter Valkering, Gonenc Yücel, Ernst Gebetsroither-Geringer,
Karin Markvica, Dorukhan Sergin, Leen Gorissen, Erika Meynaerts
(2016). Accelerating transition dynamics in city-regions: a
qualitative modelling perspective. Paper presented at the 7th
International Sustainability Transitions (IST) Conference, Wuppertal,
Germany, 6-9 September 2016.
•
Ernst Gebetsroither-Geringer, Karin Markvica, Pieter Valkering,
Gonenc Yucel, Dorukhan Sergin (2016). Understanding
acceleration transition dynamics supported by the use of models
within a participative learning environment. Paper presented at the
7th International Sustainability Transitions (IST) Conference,
Wuppertal, Germany, 6-9 September 2016.
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