Fortnight Early Warning Bulletin
July 7, 2017
The 6 round
of PSNP has beenNDRMC
88% completed and was dispatchedwww.dppc.gov.et
in Somalia alone. The 7
EWER
Directorate,
th
th
round
of PSNP has been completed (100%) and was dispatched in Oromia alone.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR KIREMT 2017
Based on the global, regional and local pre-seasonal
indicators as well as their dynamical/statistical
predictions, the following conclusions can be drawn
for the Kiremt climate outlook 2017

Normal onset over much of seasonal rain
benefiting areas while early onset across west,
southwest and central parts of the country.

Slightly early cessation over pocket areas of
northeast lowlands otherwise normal cessation
of seasonal rain over the major portions of the
country.

An increased likelihood of normal to above
normal rainfall over northwestern, western,
southwestern and central regions.

An increased likelihood of near normal over
northeastern, eastern and southern highlands.

Occasional heavy rains that are highly likely
to generate both flash and river-line flooding
over flood prone and low lying areas of the
country are expected.

Unlike typical El Nino years, drought is less
likely to be severe and intense, including over
drought-prone regions.

South and southeastern parts of the country is
expected to have enhanced rainfall in late
summer which shows early onset of Bega
Rainfall.

In general, the seasonal rainfall of the country
is expected more likely to be dominated by
the near normal category.
Source:-NMA
Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et
P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Email: [email protected]
[2]
for the remaining crops like teff and some pulse
crops.
Weather outlook and possible impact
for the first half of July 2017
Issues needing attention based on the
weather forecast given by NMA
Under normal circumstance during the first half
of July widespread rainfall suppose to cover
Kiremt rain benefiting areas. In relation to this
phenomenon heavy fall together with hailstorm
is likely at places.
Pursuant to the NMA forecast in relation to the
expected better strength of the rain producing
weather systems heavy fall which can causes
flash flood is likely at places during the first
dekade of July 2017. Therefore, appropriate
prevention measure should be undertaken by the
concerned bodies ahead of time in low-lying areas
and near riverbanks including in areas where the
soils with poor percolation capacity. Normal to
above normal rainfall is anticipated over Oromiya
Region (East and West Welega, Jimma, Ilu
Ababora, East and North Shewa, Addis Ababa,
Arsi and Bale zones ), Gambella region, Amhara
region( Bahir Dar Zuria, North and South
Gonder, East and west Gojam), Benishangul
Gumuze, Tigray, SNNPR (Hadiya, Guraghe,
Keffa, Benchi Maji, Wolayita, Sidama and South
Omo zones).
Moreover normal rainfall with a chance of above
normal rainfall in some places is anticipated over
North Shewa, West and East Harargie,
Somali(Jigjiga and City Zone), Dira Dawa, Harari
and Afar Region(Zone 1,3,4 and 5) during the
coming month of July. Thus the anticipated normal
rainfall would favour the existing long cycle crops
sown during the Belg season and Meher crops as
well including early seasons agricultural activities
The anticipated normal to above normal rainfall
over most Meher growing areas would favor
season’s agricultural activities. However the
expected widespread rainfall with a chance of
heavy fall at places during the coming July 2017
would cause flash flood in low-lying areas, near
river banks and in the areas where the soil type
with low infiltration capacity.
Therefor attention should be given for the
following activities:
The anticipated normal to above normal rainfall
would favor the normal growth and
development of the existing crops. Moreover it
might be useful to perform season’s agricultural
activities on time. Moreover the expected
normal rainfall particularly over pastoral areas
of northeaster Afar Region(Zone 1,3,4 and 5) and
eastern Somali (Jigjiga and City Zone) parts of the
country would favor the availability of pasture
and drinking water in the areas. Thus the
concerned personnel should take appropriate
measure in order to make use of the expected
conducive moisture situation efficiently.

The anticipated occasional heavy falls likely in
some pocket areas, where above normal rainfall
is expected, might be causes the occurrence of
flood in low-lying areas, near river banks and in
areas where the soil infiltration capacity is poor.
Consequently the concerned bodies (e.g.
recently activated Flood Task Force at Federal
level and the respective Task Forces at Regional
level) including people dwelling in flood risk
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areas(urban and rural areas as well) should take
appropriate measure ahead of time.

The outbreak of contaminated animal disease
due to the occurrence of flood is likely over
low-lying pastoral areas. Thus the concerned
bodies should undertake proper preparedness
measure ahead of time.

Water logging problem might be possible in
crop lands with poor drainage system. Therefore
concerned personnel should undertake possible
prevention measure ahead of time in order to
minimize the effect of unnecessary moisture.
Crop and livestock condition and areas
needing attention based on the weekly
Regional Situation Report
Shewa, East Haragie, East and West Welega,
Arsi West Harargie and West Shewa) and at
early vegetative stage in Bale and Guji Zones.
On the other hand crop damage due to water
stress has been reported from Borna Zone. Belg
crops are at flowering and early grain formation
stage while planting/sowing underway in case
of Meher crops in Amhara Region. Irrigated
maize at grain formation in Afar Region(Chifra,
Mile, Asayita and Dupti) while harvesting of
maize crop going on in Asayita and Dupti
Woredas. Crops are at vegetative stage in
Harari. Land preparation and sowing activities
going on in Tigray Region. Sesame crop at
emergence and Maze crops at vegetative stage
in Gambela Region. The late sown crops are at
emergence stage in Benishangul Gumuz and the
same is true in case of Dire Dawa.
Crop condition
Crop pest and diseases
Early season’s Meher agricultural activities like
land preparation and planting/sowing activities
going on in most parts of Meher growing areas
of the country. With regard to the Belg activities
89% of the season’s agricultural activities
performed in SNNPR, 83% Belg and 26 %
Meher activity was performed in Amhara, land
preparation and planting/sowing activities of
Meher crops was going on in Oromiya,
Benishangul
Gumuz,
Harari,
Tigray,
Afar(irrigated crops), Gambela and Dire Dawa.
SNNPR
The late sown Meher crops at early vegetative
stage in some areas where the Meher
agricultural activities start earlier. Crops are
emergence stage in Oromiya Region(Jima, Esat
Spread of Fall Armyworm in 13 Zone and 3
Special Weredas of the Region such as Gurage
Zone (Abeshgie Wereda), Bench Maji Zone (10
Weredas/236 Kebeles), Kefa Zone (Except
Saylem and Gewata the rest of 8 Weredas),
Kembata Tenbaro Zone(51 Kebeles), Gamo
Gofa Zone (12 Weredas /121 Kebeles), Dawuro
Zone (5 Weredas /92 Kebeles), Sidama
Zone(Dale, Shebedino, Loka Abaya and Aleta
Chuko Weredas /44Kebeles), Hadiya Zone (East
Bedewacho
Weredas/33Kebeles,
West
Bedwaco/22Kebeles and Shone in 6 rural
Kebeles), Sheka(3 Weredas), Dmot Pulusa(23
Kebeles), Bloso Sore (11 Kebes), Dugna Fango
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(9 Kebeles), Humbo(4 Kebeles), Damot Gale
(18 Kebeles), South Omo(North Ari, South Ari,
Selamago and Male 106 Kebeles in total),
Gedeo Zone 3 Weredas /6Kebeles), Konta
Special Woreda/423 Kebeles, Segen Peoples
(Ale Weredas 7 Kebeles, Konso Wereda 43
Kebeles) and Basketo Wereda (7 lowland
Kebeles). The total area coverage of damage
was about 87,596.93 hectares of land. In order
to minimize the spread of pest effective control
measures has been carried out trough modern
and traditional method on 49,840.77 hectares of
crop land so far. However, the rapid spread
nature of the pest coupled with the existing
favorable environmental condition have resulted
its spread with alarming rate, so the need adequate
supply of pesticide and professionals to under pin
the operation is indispensible as reported from the
region.
Oromiya Region
Crop damage due to Fall Armyworm has been
reported
from
Bale
Zone
(Meda
Welebu/5Kebeles, on 160.2 hectares of maize
crops), Buno Bedele Zone(184 Kebeles on 1809
hectares of land), West Shewa Zone(5 Weredas
on 186 hectares of land), East Shewa Zone( 2
Weredas on 105 hectares of land),West Welega
(all Woredas on 3263 hectares of land), East
Harargie Zone (all Weredas on 1598 hectares of
land) and Guji Zone (Adola Wereda on 252
hectares of land). Moreover regular Armyworm
infestation has been reported from Bale Zone
(Dolo Mena Woreda/14Kebeles on 9,796
hectares of land crop land and 7358 hectares of
pasture), West Guji (Darolebu Weredas on 16
hectares of maize and sorghum crops land),
Kelem Wellega (all Weredas on 15333 hectares
of crop land), East Wellega Zone(5 Kebeles on
137 hectares of land), Jima(Arjo Weredas
/3Kebeles on 115 hectares of land), Sibu Sire
Wereda(3 Kebeles on 542 hectares of crop land)
and Sasiga Wereda(3 Kebeles on 1235 hectares
of land). As a result 6,707 liters of pesticide
applied on 13,672 hectares of infested crop land
and traditional control measures have been
carried out side by side in the above mentioned
areas to minimize the spread of pest.
Amhara Region
The Fall Army- worm infestation has been
reported
in Awi zone Ankasha and Banja
Weredas, North Gonder Zone Alefa Takusa
Wereda/1 Kebele, Gonder Zuria Wereda 3
Kebeles, South Gonder Zone Semada, Tach
Gaynet, Ebenet, libo, Fogera, Dera ,Este, Enda
Bete and Farta Weredas and West Gojam Zone
Dembecha, Jabi Tahenen, Bahir Dar Zuria and
Wenberma Weredas. In order to control the spread
of the pest control measure was underway over
above mention infested areas.
Benshangul Gumuz
Rodent attack was reported from Benshangul
Gumuz Metekele Zone (Mandura and Dangure
Weredas on 2766hectars and in Homosha Wereda
47 hectares of land. Therefore pest control
measure both modern and traditional way is
carried out in affected areas.
Gambela Region
Outbreak of Fall Army- worm has been reported
in some areas of the Region and pest control
measures is ongoing in the region.
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Tigray Region
Shortage of Pasture and Drinking Water
Crop damage due to Fall Army - worm reported
in 4 Weredas such as Adwa, Laylay Maychew,
Tahtay Koraro and Laylay Adiabo; especially the
infestation is highly severe in 4 Kebeles of Adwa
Wereda(Belakea, Addis Alem, Wedi Keshi and
Simret). As a result pest control measures both
modern and traditional ways underway in the
aforementioned infested areas in order to control
the spread of the pest.
Due to the shortage of pasture and drinking
water in the above mentioned stressed areas
livestock feed rationing and water tracking is
going on in the areas.
Harari region
The outbreak of Army worm reported in Sofi,
Burka, Dodota, Awayue, Weldia and Ahomer
Kebeles of the Region.
Dire Dawa Administration
The outbreak of Army worm reported in some
areas of Dire Dawa and pest control measures are
underway over the infested areas.
Livestock body condition
An improvement of pasture and drinking water
has been reported in most parts of the country
during the past two weeks. As a result the body
condition of animals in a better shape in some
areas of the country. However the body
condition of the animals still poor in some areas
of SNNPR like Hadiya(Meirab Bedewacho and
Duna), Oromiya(Bale Zone, Borena Zone/Das,
Dire and Miyo Weredas, East Shewa Zone
/Fentale and Adami Tulu, West Shewa
Zone/Siraro,
Shala
Arsi
Negele
and
Shaashemene, in most parts of Somali Region
and lowlands of Afar Region like Kore, Bidu,
Erebti and Elidar due to the shortage of pasture
and drinking water in the areas.
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