Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
2008
Annual Review of
Development Effectiveness
Shared Global Challenges
Thomas O΄Brien
Lead Economist
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
ODI, London
October 6, 2008
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
2008
Annual Review of
Development Effectiveness
Shared Global Challenges
Vinod Thomas
Director-General, Evaluation
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
ODI, London
October 6, 2008
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
2008
Annual Review of
Development Effectiveness
Shared Global Challenges
Thomas O΄Brien
Lead Economist
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
ODI, London
October 6, 2008
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Evidence on the World Bank’s efforts on two
important and interconnected areas:
Part I: Tracking Bank Performance
Part II: Shared Global Challenges
4
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
The share of Bank lending meeting targeted
development objectives improved over the
medium term
Share of projects with
outcomes moderately
satisfactory or better
90%
80%
70%
by number of projects
weighted by value of project disbursements
60%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Last Exit FY of 3-year rolling average
5
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Most of the improvement is at the
“middle-ground”
Share of Projects in Rating Category
IEG rating of projects meeting
development objectives
FY98-02
FY03-07
Percentage
point change
Highly satisfactory
6%
4%
-2
Satisfactory
45%
45%
0
Moderately satisfactory
21%
29%
+8
Moderately unsatisfactory
9%
10%
+1
Unsatisfactory
16%
10%
-6
Highly unsatisfactory
2%
1%
-1
6
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Performance by economic sector varies
significantly
Social
Transport
Finance
Water
Improvers
Rural
Bankwide
Energy
FY03-FY07
FY98-FY02
Economic Policy
Environment
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
7
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Performance by economic sector varies
significantly
Health
Decliners
Public Sector Governance
Urban
FY03-FY07
FY98-FY02
Education
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
8
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Performance improved across all Regions
Sub-saharan Africa especially large uplift, but
still lags behind
9
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Share of projects with outcomes
moderately satisfactory or better
Project performance dropped significantly in FY07
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Exit FY
10
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Five factors have influenced weak project
outcomes:
Overly complex (not matched by capacity)
Overly ambitious
Delays in implementation as circumstances changed
Weak results framework
Poor Bank performance, including weak
supervision
11
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
A big “disconnect” between the World Bank’s
self-ratings during implementation and IEG’s
ex-post evaluations
2005
7.1 points
2006
8.5 points
2007
17.2 points
12
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Overoptimism impairs real-time
“managing for results”
45 unsatisfactory projects in FY07
29 percent
(13 projects)
Poor performance
flagged in real time
71 percent
(32 projects)
Unsatisfactory outcomes
unanticipated during
implementation
13
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Securing strong development outcomes at the
country level is more challenging
(23)
Number of Country Program Ratings in CAEs (FY98-08)
(22)
Bulgaria (91-97)
Cameroon (82-94)
Costa Rica (90-00)
Croatia (94-01)
Ecuador (94-98)
Guatemala (85-89)
Haiti (86-01)
Jamaica (80-98)
Malawi (96-05)
Mauritania (92-03)
Moldova (93-03)
Nepal (90-99)
Pap. New Guinea (90-99)
Paraguay (90-00)
Peru (97-00)
Romania (91-99)
Russia (92-98)
Rwanda (90-94)
Ukraine (93-98)
Zambia (96-01)
Zimbabwe (90-02)
Angola (91-06)
Ethiopia (01-06)
Bolivia (98-04)
Honduras ( 95-05)
Lesotho (90-99)
Madagascar (95-05)
Mexico (92-94)
Morocco (97-00)
Pac. Islands (92-02)
Pakistan (94-03)
Yemen, Rep. (90-95)
Yemen, Rep. (99-05)
Albania (98-04)
Bhutan (93-03)
Bolivia (85-96)
Burkina Faso (89-99)
Cambodia (92-99)
Cameroon (95-00)
Dom. Republic (85-02)
Egypt (91-00)
Eritrea (92-00)
India (90-00)
Indonesia (90-98)
Indonesia (99-06)
Jordan (90-00)
Kazakhstan (90-99)
Kyrguz (93-00)
Mali (95-05)
Mexico (95-96)
Mongolia (91-01)
Rwanda (95-01)
Senegal (94-04)
Sri Lanka (89-98)
Turkey (93-04)
Ukraine(99-06)
Unsatisfactory
Moderately unsatisfactory
Moderately satisfactory
(21)
20-
15-
10-
5-
(0)
Highly unsatisfactory
(12)
Argentina (91-00)
Armenia (93-02)
Bosnia-Herz.(96-03)
Brazil (90-02)
Bulgaria (98-01)
China (93-02)
Croatia (02-03)
Ethiopia (90-00)
Ghana (95-99)
Guatemala (90-01)
Lithuania (91-02)
Maldives (80-98)
Mexico (89-91)
Mexico (97-00)
Peru (90-96)
Romania (00-04)
Russia (99-01)
Tunisia (90-03)
Uganda (87-99)
Vietnam (88-01)
W. Bank & Gaza (93-00)
Yemen, Rep. (96-98)
Chile (85-00)
El Salvador (89-00)
Uruguay (87-99)
Satisfactory
Highly satisfactory
(3)
Outcome Rating of County Programs in CAEs
14
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Two lessons for better tracking of World Bank
performance:
Practical steps to ‘close the disconnect’ and
improve M&E
Strengthen the evaluation knowledge base for
the Bank’s corporate results.
15
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Evidence on the World Bank’s efforts on two
important and interconnected areas:
Part I: Tracking Bank Performance
Part II: Shared Global Challenges
16
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Shared Global Challenges
The World Bank focuses on five main strands:
Environmental commons
Communicable diseases
International trading regime
International financial architecture
Global knowledge for development
17
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Why examine these shared global
challenges now?
The fight against poverty is increasingly
intertwined with shared global challenges
The Bank has promoted fostering global
public goods in its new strategy
18
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
The Bank’s country-based model is a doubleedged sword
In some circumstances it works well . . .
In others it comes under strain . . .
19
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
The Bank’s attention to global public goods
wanes from high level strategies downwards
Corporate
strategies
Sector and
regional strategies
Country strategies
20
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Three levers for the Bank in moving from
strategy to action at the country level
Resource allocation
Financing instruments
Global programs
21
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Beyond country support—
the importance of advocacy
The experience with advocacy on:
International trade
Avian influenza
Environmental commons
22
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Global Advocacy: Global programs
 Developing country voices remain underrepresented in governance
 The new climate change programs must ensure
sound and equitable governance
23
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Lessons from Experience
Will you still need me?
Will you still feed me?
When I’m . . . Sixty Four
24
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
How can the World Bank improve its support for
shared global challenges?
 New approaches to setting budgets and
recognizing performance
 Clearer organizational arrangements to link
together country, regional, and global initiatives
 Give greater voice to developing countries in the
governance of significant global programs
25
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Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
Conclusions
Meeting the shared global challenges of our
time will be crucial to reducing poverty
The Bank’s role—particularly in supporting
investments where global and local benefits
diverge—is potentially pathbreaking
26
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
2008
Annual Review of
Development Effectiveness
Shared Global Challenges
Thomas O΄Brien
Lead Economist
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
ODI, London
October 6, 2008
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
2008
Annual Review of
Development Effectiveness
Shared Global Challenges
Andrew Steer
ODI, London
DFID
October 6, 2008
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
2008
Annual Review of
Development Effectiveness
Shared Global Challenges
Alison Evans
ODI, London
ODI
October 6, 2008
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2008
2008
Annual Review of
Development Effectiveness
Shared Global Challenges
Thomas O΄Brien
Lead Economist
www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde08
ODI, London
October 6, 2008