TheoryofChangeOverviewandApproachJanuary2016
DavidThomson,TRECSeniorAssociate
Definition
• ATOC(TheoryofChange)describestheoverallfocusandapproachforcreatingchange:aprocessof
plannedsocial(orother)change,fromtheassumptionsthatguideitsdesigntothelong-termgoals
itseekstoachieve.
• ATOCdoesnotnecessarilydescribejustonewayofcreatingchange-itaddressesallthewaysan
organizationmaydoitswork.Inthecaseofenvironmentalorganizations,forexample,thislikely
meanstheTOCcouldgrassrootsorganizingtolitigationtosciencetopolicy-butlaysoutaclearcase
forwhyanyofthesestrategiesischosenoverotherchoices.
• “Atheoryofchangetakesawideviewofadesiredchange,carefullyprobingtheassumptions
behindeachstepinwhatmaybealongandcomplexprocess.Articulatingatheoryofchangeoften
entailsthinkingthroughallthestepsalongapathtowardadesiredchange,identifyingthe
preconditionsthatwillenable(andpossiblyinhibit)eachstep,listingtheactivitiesthatwillproduce
thoseconditions,andexplainingwhythoseactivitiesarelikelytowork.”
From:Grantcraft-MappingChange:UsingaTheoryofChangetoGuidePlanningandEvaluation
RationaleforaTOC:
AgoodTOChelpsorganizationsdrawlogicalconnectionsbetweenactivitiesandoutcomes.Ithelps
themtoarticulateexactlywhatpropositionsandassumptionstheirworkistesting—andtherefore
whattheyshouldbeassessingintheirevaluationplans.
Agoodtheoryofchangedoesthefollowing:
- Ithelpsyouunderstandtherelationshipbetweentheproblemsyou’readdressingandthestrategies
you’reusingtogettheworkdone.
- Helpsyouseewhat’spossibleandwhat’snotpossibletoachievewiththeinterventionyou’ve
chosentosupport.
- Helpsyouassessrisksinyourcampaignorinitiative–whatmightbemorelikelytoworkandwhatis
moreuncertain
- Ithelpsyouthinkaboutwhatotherinputsorresourcesmightbeneededandwhetheryourinput
mightfitinacatalyticplace.
- Ithelpsyouexaminewhetherornotyourinterventionwillbepowerfulenough.
- Ithelpsyoupromoteaccountabilityandtransparency.
- Ultimately,itpromotesthemosteffectiveandefficientapplicationofscarceresourcesi.e.provides
focusandpriorities.
- Itestablishescommonvocabularyandprinciples
Itmakesimplicitassumptionsexplicitanditseparatesidealism–sometimescalled“magical
thinking”(whatwethinkorbelievewillhappenorshouldhappen)frompragmatism(whatweknow
willmostlikelyhappenandwhatourorganizationcanlikelydeliveron)
ATheoryofChangecouldpotentiallybeperceivedasabureaucratic,idea-killingexerciseintryingto
predictthefuture.Theoppositeishopefullythecase:thataTOCapproachresultsinhighlyengaging,
sacred-cowchallenging,highlycreativeideasandplans.Itisnotintendedtobeaone-size-fits-all
planningapproachandcanveryeffectivelybeusedalongsideothertoolsforgeneratingideas.
DistinguishingtheTheoryofChangeandStrategicPlan
TheTOCandSP(StrategicPlan)arecloselylinked.Distinguishingthemcanbeconfusing-theTOC
reflectsmorehowyouthinkchangeingeneralhappens,whiletheSPcapturesmorespecificgoalsand
strategies.Wheretheconfusioncanemerge
Atheoryofchangedevelopedattheoutsetofplanningwillhelpplannersmakemoreinformed
decisionsaboutmorespecificgoals,strategiesandtactics.
However,someorganizationsmayfindthattheydeveloptheirTOCinanemergentway-thediscussions
aboutkeystrategicplanelementscoulddirectlyleadintofleshingouttheTOC.However,aTOC
Andjustasastrategicplanchangesovertime,aTOCmayalsoevolveascircumstanceschange.
However,aTOCisusuallymoreenduringastheunderlyingwaythatchangehappensagainstyourlong
termsgoalsisusuallymoredurable.(AnexampleofhowaTOCcanchangecanbeseenintheUS-and
Canadamorerecently-inthewaythatenvironmentalsafeguardsorachievementswereobtained;as
governmentopennesstoengagingonconservationissues,andascorporatewaysofengagingshifted,
conservationgroupsandothershadtore-visittheirwholeTOC-andarestilldoingso).
Describing/CapturingaTheoryofChange
ATOCcanbefairlydetailedorfairlyhigh-level-andperhapsideallytheremightbetwoversions.Given
thataTOCmostimportantlyillustratesyourthinkingabouthowchangeismostlikelytohappentoward
yourgoal(amongotherthings),youmighthaveadetailedTOC(e.g.ataprogrambyprogramlevel,that
capturesallyourassumptions)andahigher-levelTOCthatcapturesyourmain“ifwedothisthenthis
willhappen”thatcanbeusedforabroaderaudience(yourboard,forexample).MostTOCsthatyouwill
findpubliclyarethesehigh-levelversions(theydon’trevealanyspecificstrategies).
DevelopingaTOC-keySteps
“Animportantfirststepintheprocessisidentifyingaworkablelong-termgoalandlong-termoutcomes.
Thelong-termgoalshouldbesomethingtheinitiativecanrealisticallyachieveandthateveryone
involvedunderstands.Oncealong-termgoalisidentified,thegroupthenconsiders:“Whatconditions
mustbeinplaceforustoreachthegoal?Anysuchnecessaryconditionsshouldbeshownasoutcomes
ontheTheoryofChangepathway,underneaththelong-termoutcome.Theseoutcomesactas
preconditionstothelong-termoutcome.Theprocessofidentifyingpreconditionscontinues,drilling
downthepathwaybyposingfundamentalquestionssuchas:“Whathastobeinplaceforthisoutcome
tobeachieved?”and“Arethesepreconditionssufficientfortheoutcometobeachieved?””
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_change)
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1. Startwithassumptionsabouttheenvironmentinwhichtheorganizationisdoingitswork;
2. Identifykeygoals,eachsupportedbyasetofassumptionsaboutwhyandhowthatparticulargoal
wouldbeimportant;
3. Breakeachgoaldownintodiscreteobjectivesandstrategies,alongwithkeyevaluationquestions
andmilestonesthatwouldindicateprogresstowardeachgoal.
TheoryofChangeKeyElements:
ATOCcanbeamoredetaileddocumentorageneralstoryline.Itcanalsobesupportedbyasimple
flowchart(likealogicmodel).Itshouldhaveenoughdetailinitthatreadersgetasenseofthecore
assumptionsbeingmadeandthechoicesbeingmade.Thedocumentdoesnothavetoincludeallthe
evidencethathasbeencoveredtosupporttheTOCbutthatevidenceshouldatleastbereferencedand
capturedsomewhereelse.
ATheoryofChangetypicallyincludes:
• cleararticulationoftheproblemorissuetobesolvedandthedesiredresults/outcomes
• workingbackwardstoidentify,mapandexplainthepreconditions,requirements,and
communityneedsandassetsnecessarytoachievingthedesiredgoal
• identificationofinfluentialfactorsandassumptionsaboutthecontext
• determinationofstrategiesthatwillbeundertakentoachievetheintendedchange
• indicatorsformeasuringprogramoutcomes
• anarrativethatexplainsthelogicoftheplan
KeyComponents:
Focus Description
Long-termOutcomes
Thelong-term(20-30years?)changeintheworldwewanttosee(i.e.what
itwouldlookliketobeachievingourmissionin30years’time)
Includesthehigh-levelassumptionsarewemakingabout:
• Whytheseoutcomesandnototheroutcomes?(i.e.ofallthepossible
metricsdescribinghowXcouldbeimprovedwhichonesdowethinkare
mostimportanttofocusonandwhy?)
• Whyarewebest/wellpositionedtopursuethesegoals(comparedto
others)?
â
Pre-conditions
Whatwouldhavetobeinplacetosupport/allowtheselongterm
outcomes?
â
High-levelshorter-term Tosupportthesepre-conditionsbeinginplace,whatdoessuccesslooklike
Goals
inthenext3-5yearsi.e.whatsubsetofthat‘changeintheworld’arewe
committingtoachievingasanorganization(andnotnecessarilyby
ourselves)
1. Howwillyouknowwhenyouhavesucceeded?Whatwouldcountas
progress/successafter1year,2years,3years,andsoon?What
indicatorswillyouusetomeasureyourachievements/impact?s
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â
BroadStrategies
Howwebelievechangehappensi.e.whatittakestoaccomplishthegoals.
Strategiesarebasedonananalysisof:
1. Whoorwhatneedstochangeinorderforthevision,goaltobe
achieved?Inwhatways?
• Who-thetargetpopulations(s)-isgoingtodowhat,thatwilllead
tocertainoutcomes?
• Whatwillittaketosupportthetargetpopulationactinginthe
necessaryandsufficientways?Whattoolsorprocesseswouldwe
needtoimpact/influencetheidentifiedgroups/systems?
• Whatistheamountofchangerequiredtoachievesuccess?
• Overwhattimeframeisthechangeexpectedtohappen?
• Whatistheanalysisthatwehavedonetosuggestourconclusions
onalloftheabovearereasonablysound?
2. Howcouldweachievethatchange?
• Whathasandhasn’tworkedelsewhere?
• Whatarethefactorsthatwillinfluenceourabilitytocreatechange?
• Whatassumptionsarewemakingaboutwhatstrategieswillor
won’tworketc.?
• Whoisbestpositionedtodrivespecificstrategies(e.g.other
organizations)?Whoelseisworkinginthefield?Arethere
opportunitiesforcooperationandpartnerships?Istherelikelytobe
competitionwithothers?
• Whatarethekeysolutionsorstrategiesthatwillachievetheshort,
mediumandlong-termgoals?
3. Whataretheresources(financial,time,skillsandknowledge-
includingonesoutsidetheorganizatione.g.keypartners)requiredto
achievethechangeandaretheyavailable?
• Wherearethegapsinresources?
• Whatexternallyorinternallyimposedconstraintsarewe
operatingunder?
• Howwellisourorganizationpositionedtodeliveronspecific
strategies–strengths,weaknesses?
4. Howwillweknowwearemakingprogressandhavesucceeded?What
wouldcountasprogress/successafter1year,2years,3years,andso
on?Whatindicatorswillweusetomeasureachievements/impact?
ExamplesofCoreAssumptionsabouthowChangeHappens
MarshallGanz(“TheoryofChange”,NationalOrganizingInstitute)providessomevaluableobservations
aboutafewofthedifferenthighest-levelgenericTOC’sthatindividualsororganizationsmayhave:“All
ofusmakeassumptionsabouthowchangehappens,butwecanstrategizemoreeffectivelyifwemake
ourassumptionsexplicit.
Forexample,somepeopleholdanInformationTheoryofChange—theybelievethatifotherpeoplehave
moreinformationabouttheproblemthatwilleventuallychangethings.OthersholdaLegalTheoryof
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Change,believingthatusingthecourts,orchanginglawsisthewaytoguaranteechange.Others
operateonaCulturalTheoryofChange—believingifthecultureingeneralbecomesmoreacceptingof
newideasbyseeingthemrepresentedinculturalvenues,changecanhappen.OthersuseaMarket
TheoryofChange,buildingsupplyordemandtoshiftmarketdynamics.
GanzgoesontodescribehisTheoryofChange:“Sometimesthesetheoriesdocontributetochange.
However,asorganizersweoperateonapower-basedtheoryofchange,believingthatifwewinchange
byanymeans,buthavenotchangedtheunderlyingpowerdynamics,thenwewillcontinuetosufferthe
symptomsofadeeperproblemofinequality.”
ThebottomlineisthatitiscriticaltoknowwhatyourTOCisandfeelconfidentitisbasedonthemost
solidevidenceyoucanmuster–notbasedlargelyonpassionateexhortations.
TestingyourTheoryofChange
YoushouldcheckthatyourTOCis:
1. Plausible(stakeholdersbelievethelogicofthemodeliscorrect:ifwedothesethings,wewillget
theresultswewantandexpect);
2. Doable(human,politicalandeconomicresourcesareseenassufficienttoimplementtheaction
strategiesinthetheory);
3. Testable(stakeholdersbelievetherearecrediblewaystodiscoverwhethertheresultsareas
predicted);
4. Meaningful(stakeholdersseetheoutcomesasimportantandthemagnitudeofchangeinthese
outcomesbeingpursuedasworththeeffort).
(source:Connell,J.P.,&Klem,A.M.(2000).JournalofEducationalandPsychologicalConsulting)
TheoryofChange-Draftsampleapplyingtheaboveframeworktoaconservationorganization
AreaofFocus Organization/ProgramTheoryofChangefocus
(examplesonly)
1. Whatisourhighestlevel
• Ourvisionisa“healthyandintact(local)Ecosystemwhere
outcomeweareseekingi.e.our
criticallandsandwatersareadequatelyprotected,wildlife
long-termvision?
ismanagedinathoughtful,sustainablemanneranda
strong,diversebaseofsupportisworkingtoconserveand
sustainthisspecialplaceaspartofalarger,connected
regionalecosystem”
2. Withinthatoverallvision,what
• Whatisthecurrenthealth/stateofkeyaspectsofthe
arethemostpressingneeds,
ecosystem?
issues,threatsandopportunities? • Whatisthelikely,projectedfuturehealthoftheregional
Inotherwords,basedonthebest
ecosystem?
scienceandknowledgewehave
• Whatarecauses,driversofthesechangesintheecosystem
ofthecurrentandlikelyfuture
health?Whichonesifanyaremoreimpactful?Howdothey
stateofthisecosystem,what
relatetoeachother?
aspectsoftheecosystem
• Etc.
functioningrequirethemost
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attentionorinterventioninorder
forthevisiontoberealized?
3. Withintheoverallvision,what
aresomerealistic
outcomes/goalswecould
achieve?
Whatmorespecificoutcomesdowebelievewouldmoveus
moretowardthevision?E.g.
o Changesinthestateoftheland,waters,air,
fragmentation,
o Changesinthestateofwildlife
o Changesinthestateofthecommunityconnection
withtheecosystem(itisdebatablewhetherthis
wouldcomeinhereorlateroninthe‘conditionsfor
success’)
Andwhatisthescientificevidence/theorythatsuggests
theseoutcomeswouldmoveusclosertothevision?
• Howwouldthoseoutcomesbemeasured?Whichmetrics?
4. WhataretheconditionsorpreExample:Wildlifehealth
requisitesthatwouldhavetobe • Adequatefood
metinorderforthesegoalstobe • Adequatemobility
achieved?
• Mortalityratesminimized
• Adequategeneticdiversity
Andwhatisthescientificevidence/theorythatsuggeststhese
conditionswouldlikelymoveusclosertotheoutcomeswe
haveidentified?
5. Whatwouldittaketogetthose
• Whatkindsofdecisionsoractionswouldbeneededin
conditionsinplace?(i.e.whatare
ordertomeettheconditionsforchange?
thehigh-levelkindsof
• Whowouldbethedecision-makers?Whowouldinfluence
approachestomakingchange?)
themtomaketherightkindsofdecisions?
• Whatkindsofbroadstrategies/approacheswouldwe
neededtoimpactthosedecisionsoractions?(e.g.
advocacy,publiceducation,doingresearch,lobbying,etc.)
Andwhatistheevidence/theorythatsuggeststhesetypesof
strategieswouldlikelymoveusclosertotheoutcomeswehave
identified?Forexample,
6. Ofallthepossiblegoals,which
• Whichgoalsarewebestpositionedtotakeon?Why?(and
oneswillourorganizationtakeon
whatisthebestevidencewecanfindtosuggestthatbased
aspriorities?
onmorethanouropinione.g.externalinterviews,survey
data)
Etc.
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