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Probability Stories
Objective
SMP1, SMP2, SMP3,
SMP4, SMP6
Content Standards
K.G.1, K.G.2, K.G.4, K.G.6
To introduce the basic language of probability.
Key Concepts and Skills
• Think of and categorize likely, unlikely, certain, and impossible events. [Data and Chance Goal 3]
• Use the basic language of probability to describe single events. [Data and Chance Goal 3]
Terms to Use possible, impossible, certain, might happen, maybe, likely, unlikely, chance
Materials a book that features unlikely or impossible events
A
Mathematical Practices
Core Activities
Whole Group
Small Group
Partners
Center
Planning Tip Books such as
And To Think That I Saw It on
Mulberry Street (Dr. Seuss,
Random House, 1989) and Wacky
Wednesday (Theo. LeSieg,
Random House, 1974) feature
fun and interesting examples of
unlikely or impossible events.
► Thinking about Probability: Can Pigs Fly?
Choose a book that features unlikely events and read it aloud to the class. Give children
an opportunity to share which parts of the book they liked or didn’t like and why. Many
children will find parts of the book to be funny. Encourage discussion about why they
found them to be funny. Ask children if they think this is a true story. Why or why not?
Which events in the book are possible and which are impossible? Are there some things in
the story that might have happened but might not have? Expand the discussion beyond
the book by encouraging children to use their own real-life experiences to think about
the chance of things happening. Record the group’s ideas in three lists:
Things that are certain, like leaving school today or the sky getting dark tonight.
Things that are impossible, such as seeing flying pigs or a green sun.
Things that might happen (are possible), such as having pizza for dinner or seeing
a cat on the way home from school.
Links to the
Future
Probability—the likelihood of a
given event—is a mathematical
concept with many applications in
everyday life. Children should begin
by using their own experiences to
describe probability in qualitative
terms (certain, likely, possible, and
unlikely). This exposure to
probability builds a foundation for
calculating and understanding
quantitative representations of
probability beginning in Grade 3.
As children discuss this final category of things, prompt them to think and talk about
whether an event probably will or probably won’t happen (is likely or unlikely) and to
give reasons for their suggestions. Model and encourage the use of words such as
certain, maybe, possible, and impossible. (See the Literacy Connection below.)
► Creating Shape Art (Revisit Activities 1 15 and 2 1, pp. 73A and 88)
In the Art or Math Center, provide a variety of pre-cut geometric shapes for children to
use to create other shapes or pictures. Talk with children about the shapes they use and
create, reinforcing shape names and properties, as well as positional words (above,
below, next to, and so on).
B
Teaching Options
ELL SUPPORT
► Understanding Certain and Impossible
Ask children to draw a picture representing certain and a picture representing impossible.
ART CONNECTION
► Creating Class Probability Collages
Have children find and/or draw pictures that illustrate definite, likely, unlikely, or
impossible events. They can attach the pictures to large sheets of paper (one category of
pictures per sheet). Magazine ads are a good source of pictures.
LITERACY CONNECTION
► Using Probability Vocabulary
Brainstorm with children different ways of saying certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible.
Encourage informal as well as formal language. Some ideas might be— “no way,”
“definitely not,” and “zero chance,” to mean impossible; or “for sure,” “definitely,” and
“100 percent” to mean certain. Use real-life events to spark children’s thinking.
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Activity 3 10 Probability Stories