POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS
ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS
OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY,
WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO SERBIA
Tamás Fleischer
Institute for World Economics
of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/
[email protected]
„Danube – Strongest Link to EU:
EU Danube strategy and contributions from Serbia”
International Conference organised by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation
Belgrad, May 7, 2010.
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 Danube Strategy: expectations and realities
 Danube and inland navigation: myths and facts
 Conclusions
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 Hurrah, hurrah ! Here is the new possibility to get EU money !
 DG Regional Policy:
three NO-s
 No new legislation… …because of the Danube Strategy
 No new institution … …because of the Danube Strategy
 No extra money…
…for the Danube Strategy
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 So what is the Danube Strategy at the moment?
 A promise to Germany to reinforce its
economic positions in the area
 A promise to Austria on a better cooperation within its old Empire
 A promise to Slovakia to become a huge inland navigation hub
between the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the North Sea
 A promise to Hungary to achieve a leading role in a well-paid but
not really defined European cooperation
 A promise to Croatia and Serbia about an quick reception in the
Central / European communities
 etc. etc. We can (or can’t) imagine the range of dreams…
 …that is the Danube Strategy is a dream-collector at the
moment, where all interested groups can hang their dreams on
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 The Danube valley is a macro-region of Europe
 What is a Macro-Region? "There is no standard definition for a
macro-region [...]. The definition applied here, developed during
the preparation of the European Union Strategy for the Baltic Sea
Region, will be “an area including territory from a number of
different countries or regions associated with one or more common
features or challenges.” Source: Macro-regional Strategies in the European
Union - published on the Website of DG Regional Policy
 Macro region: Co-operation of countries having a similar cohesion
background (From an early paper of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry)
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 Positive approach
 (1) A good sample of different EU countries: a longitudinal
section of the oldest, the old, the newer and the future EU
member countries
 (2) Symbolic meaning of the Danube: Rhine as a symbol of the EC
of the old EU founders – Danube as a symbol of the extended
EU =>
RHINE AS A LINK
WITHIN THE FOUNDERS OF THE EC
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 Positive approach
 (1) A good sample of different EU countries: a longitudinal
section of the oldest, the old, the newer and the future EU
member countries
 (2) Symbolic meaning of the Danube: Rhine as a symbol of the EC
of the old EU founders – Danube as a symbol of the extended
EU =>
 (3) „CADSES” (InterReg Cooperation Areas 2000-2006)
Central European, Adriatic, Danubian and South-Eastern European
Space (cooperation area) =>
Co-operation areas
INTERREG III.B
(2000-2006)
cooperation areas
CADSES = Central European,
Adriatic, Danubian and
South-Eastern European
cooperation area.
All those areas were swept
together, that were remote and
unimportant from the point of
„Brussels” Non-cooperating
Source: INTERREG areas.
http://europa.eu.int/comm/regional_
policy/interreg3/images/pdf/int3b_uk_a4p.pdf
Co-operation areas
INTERREG III.B
(2000-2006)
cooperation areas
CADSES =
Central European,
Adriatic,
Danubian and
South-Eastern European
cooperation area.
Forrás: INTERREG térségek.
The Danube watershed basin
 The Danube watershed covers the landlocked regions of the CADSES area
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 Cheap and energy-effective inland navigation?
 (1) The myth of the energy effective inland navigation
 „Its energy consumption per km/ton of transported goods is
approximately 17% of that of road transport and 50% of rail
transport.” (Inland waterway transport: What do we want to achieve ? European
Communities, Mobility and Transport http://ec.europa.eu/transport/inland/index_en.htm )
 Average self-propelled vessels consume up to 0.0130 litre per ton-
km, whereas modern vessels can achieve gas oil consumption as low
as 0.0044 litre per ton-km. Compared to rail (0.0095 l/tkm) or road
transport (0.0292 l/tkm), average fuel consumption for inland
navigation (0.0083 l/tkm) is relatively low. (Opening your door to inland
waterway transport in Europe. http://www.naiades.info/faq )
ENERGY USE OF DIFFERENT
TRANSPORT MODES (THEORY)
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 … the weighted average CO2-intensity for rail-freight operations in the
UK is 14.5 gms per tonne-km. This estimate appears relatively low by
comparison with the results of previous studies in the UK and elsewhere in
Europe. For example, the Rail Emissions Model constructed by AEA
Technology (2001) for the SRA used a ratio of 20 gm of CO2 per tonne-km
for rail-freight. The TREMOVE study, under-taken by the University of
Leuven, assigns a value of 33 gm of CO2 per tonne-km for UK rail-freight
operations. Four other recent studies by NTM (2005), WRI-WBCSD (2003),
INFRAS (2004) and IFEU (2005) suggest average ratios for European railfreight operations of, respectively, 17, 30, 38 and 18 (electric) / 35 (diesel)
gms / tonne-km.
… The movement of freight on inland waterways is also relatively energy
efficient, generating around 30-40 gm of CO2 per tonne-km (Dings and
Dijkstra, 1997, INFRAS/WWW, 2004). (McKinnon, Alan (2007) CO2 Emissions from
Freight Transport in the UK. Report prepared for the Climate Change Working Group of the
Commission for Inte-grated Transport. Logistics Research Centre, Heriot-Watt University,
Edinburgh 57 p.
http://cfit.independent.gov.uk/pubs/2007/climatechange/pdf/2007climatechange-freight.pdf )
ENERGY USE OF DIFFERENT
TRANSPORT MODES (PRACTICE)
McKinnon, Alan (2007)
CO2 Emissions from
Freight Transport in the UK.
Report prepared for the
Climate Change Working
Group of the Commission
for Integrated Transport.
Logistics Research Centre,
Heriot-Watt University,
Edinburgh 57 p.
http://cfit.independent.gov.u
k/pubs/2007/climatechange/
pdf/2007climatechangefreight.pdf
THE MESSAGE:
RAIL AND
INLAND
WATERWAYS:
BOTH ARE
GOOD ENOUGH
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 (2) Cheap inland navigation
 Even if the inland navigation is cheap, the argument, that it makes the
producer more competitive – because of the bigger export actionradius and the cheaper import – is dubious. The export and the import
of the producer is really cheaper but at the other end of the route
for the remote other producer the circumstances are similarly
better. The relative price between the two producer not necessarily
has changed, it depends on other factors which of them is more
competitive relative to each other.
 To be more correct: the external competitiveness of the linked area
can be better, because of the cheaper internal transport, better
internal links. It is another question that within the area who is the
winner of this extra competitiveness: this depends on other factors
and not on the transport price within the region.
INLAND NAVIGATION
Country
Inland
navigation
Country
2006
Inland
navigation
EU-27
5,6 % France
3,4 %
EU-15
6,5 % Hungary
4,5 %
Austria
3,0 % Netherlands
Belgium
32,3 %
14,7 % Poland
Bulgaria
3,0 % Romania
Bohemia
0,1 % Slovakia
Finland
0,2 % Germany
0,2 %
10,0 %
(4,0 % in 2001)
0,3 %
12,8 %
 Share of the inland navigation, the total goods transport of the given country
is always 100 % [ton/km %] Source: Eurostat 2007.
Map Waterways Europe http://www.inlandnavigation.org
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT
EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY…
 The two main international inland waterways in Western Europe and
South-Eastern Europe are the Rhine and the Danube where around
208 and 73 million tonnes of goods were carried in 2008 respectively.
On the Rhine, these goods are carried by some 5,500 self-propelled
cargo vessels, around 1,000 tankers and 1,100 pushed barges. On the
Danube, around 2,600 dry and around 330 tank barges are in
operation together with around 200 self-propelled vessels (UNECE
Inland Transport Committee Policy Segment Sustainable Transport Development: The Case
of Inland Water Transport 23 February 2010 Palais des Nations Panel Discussion: Can Inland
Water Transport become Competitive and an Integral Part of Global Supply Chains? Note by
the UNECE secretariat
http://www.unece.org/trans/events/docs/inlandtransport_2010_Background_Document.pdf )
Two types of seaports
TEN-T EU-25 sea- and sea/inland
ports
Seaports, category class ’A’
http://ec.europa.eu/ten/transport/maps/
doc/schema/seaports/2003_accession_
seaports_cat_a_eu25.pdf
Hamburg, horn-mouth of the river
Constanta and the Danube delta mouth
Constanta and the
Danube–Black Sea Canal
Traffic 1991
Traffic of the
Rhine watersystem in 1991
Conclusion:
Is inland navigation rentable ?
 Yes,
 The price pro tonne/km is „cheap” – if








the river-bed, the port, the fleet, the personnel, the goods are all given
River-bed:
different profile at the Rhine and the Danube
Fleet:
different because of the different profile
Goods:
bulk materials – one could get it from the rail ?
Personnel:
(depends on countries)
Ports:
needs bigger development
„the western sample” „the Rhine model” NL 33 % D, B 13-15 %
three countries, with special sea links, river mouths,
built canal network
The possibilities to lift the time-window of the navigability of the
Danube from 60 % to 82 %
Who would pay it ? And who would become more competitive ?
The Danube is navigable !
Conclusion:
Is the Danube-valley cooperation rentable ?
 Yes !
 We can’t build our future without a strong
cooperation…
 …but we have to get rid of those prefabricated
projects built on dreams and myths…
 …and form a common system of objectives,
with integration of all countries touched…
 …and also with the integration of all
sustainable transport modes – instead of playing
a 0-sum game between them
 That can be a good objective for a
Danube Strategy
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS
ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND
TRANSPORT EFFECTS
OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY,
WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO SERBIA
Tamás Fleischer
Institute for World Economics
of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/
[email protected]
THANK YOU
FOR YOUR KIND
ATTENTION !
„Danube – Strongest Link to EU:
EU Danube strategy and contributions from Serbia”
International Conference organised by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation
Belgrad, May 7, 2010.