Introduction to Homeland Security Research Project Overview Overview and Templates Risk • Three questions to ask when considering risk: 1) What can happen? 2) How likely is it? (probability) 3) What are the consequences? • Risk = the probability of occurrence x the consequences Risk (cont.) • Probability most difficult to determine • Often based more on expert judgment than concrete evidence • Can use historical data to calculate probability Risk (cont.) • Example of probability estimates • Certain: >99% chance of occurring in a given year (One or more occurrence a year) • Likely: 50-99% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 1 to 2 years) • Possible: 5-49% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 2 to 20 years) • Unlikely: 2-5% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 20 to 50 years) • Rare: 1-2% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 50 to 100 years) • Extremely Rare: <1% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 100 or more years) Risk (cont.) • Consequences: a measure of expected disaster impacts • Tangible – loss of life, property • Intangible – psychological impact, morale • Difficult to quantify • Once factors are determined, it is possible to compare risks • Risk matrix Consequences Measure Tangible Losses Intangible Losses Deaths # of people Loss of economically active individuals Social & psych. effects on remaining community Injuries # & injury severity Med. treatment needs, temp. loss of economic activity by productive individuals Social & psych. Pain & recovery Physical damage Inventory of damaged elements by # & damage level Replacement & repair cost Cultural losses Emergency operations Value of manpower, person-days employed, equip. & resources expended to relief mobilization cost, investment in preparedness capability Stress & overwork in relief participants Disruption to economy # of working days lost, volume of prod. lost Value of lost production opportunities, & in competitiveness & reputation Social disruption Number of working days lost Temp. housing, relief, & economic production Psych., social contacts, cohesion, comm. morale Environmental impact Scale & severity Cleanup costs, repair costs Consequences of poorer environment, health risks, risk of future disaster Example Risk Matrix 1-20 = Low Risk CONSEQUENCES (NOTE: Below are only examples. You will have to determine the consequences particular to your site.) 21-40 = Moderate Risk 41-59 = High Risk 20 Insignificant damage to property & equipment, minor injury 60-100 = Extremely High Risk 40 Nonreportable injury, minor loss of process/ business, or slight damage to property 60 Reportable injury, moderate loss of process/ business, or limited damage to property 80 Major injury, single fatality, critical loss of process/ business, or damage to property 100 Multiple fatalities, catastrophic loss of process/ business, or loss of property LIKELIHOOD (Probability) Certain: >99% (.99) 20 40 60 80 100 Likely: 50-99% (.50-.99) 10 - 19.8 20 - 39.6 30 – 59.4 40 - 79.2 50 - 99 Possible: 5-49% (.05-.49) 1 – 9.8 2 – 19.6 3 – 29.4 4 – 39.2 5 - 49 Unlikely: 2-5% (.02-.05) .4 - 1 .8 - 2 1.2 - 3 1.6 - 4 2-5 Rare: 1-2% (.01-.02) .2 - .4 .4 - .8 .6 – 1.2 .8 – 1.6 1-2 .18 .36 .54 .72 .99 Extremely Rare: <1% (.009) CIKR Project Template • The following is a suggested CIKR project format • Use the previous risk matrix to evaluate your site • Multiply the numbers in the parentheses in the Likelihood axis by the number in the Consequences axis • This will give you your overall risk CIKR Description Template • Location • Map or maps? • Photos? • Description/Function • What does it do? • What is its function? • NOTE: Do not give a history of the site unless it is a necessary part of its description • Justification as a CIKR • Why is it important? Hazard Evaluation Template (There should be one for each hazard that is evaluated ) • Hazard (e.g. – 5.0/moderate earthquake, cat. 2 hurricane, power outage, etc.) • Likelihood • Value • Justification (how you arrived at the value) • Consequence • Value • Description (what exactly could/might happen) • Justification (how you arrived at the value) • Total Risk Number • Ranking • __ out of __ (of all the risks you are evaluating) • Discussion/evaluation of mitigation/preparedness/ prevention efforts (if any) Risk (cont.) • Once risk is identified, how can it be mitigated? • Risk managers try to reduce either or both: • Probability • Consequence Mitigation • Mitigation: a sustained action to reduce or eliminate risk to people & property from hazards & their effects • Mitigation activities address either or both components of risk • Probability (likelihood) • Consequence • Mitigating either one reduces the threat Prevention Actions & Programs • Prevention: actions taken to avoid an incident or intervening to stop an incident from occurring, in an effort to save lives & property • National Response Framework (NRF) may be implemented for threats or potential incidents of national significance to prevent or intervene in order to lessen the impact of an incident Prevention Actions & Programs (cont.) • Prevention activities may include: • Heightened inspections • Improved surveillance & security operations • Public health & agricultural surveillance & testing • Immunizations, isolation, or quarantine • Specific law enforcement operations aimed at deterring, preempting, interdicting, or disrupting illegal activity & apprehending potential perpetrators & bringing them to justice Prevention Actions & Programs (cont.) • Most prevention activities are related to terrorism • As defined w/in the NRF, any activity that intends to prevent terrorist attacks can be qualified as a prevention measure Preparedness • Preparedness: a state of readiness to respond to a disaster, crisis, or any other type of emergency situation • Preparedness activities can be categorized as the human component of hazard management • Most common: • Training • Public Education • They do little to prevent a disaster, but are very effective at ensuring that people know what to do once one has happened Preparedness Actions & Programs • Preparedness: • It includes those activities, programs, & systems that exist before an emergency that are used to support & enhance response to an emergency or disaster • Evacuation drills • First responder training Preparedness (cont.) • Important part of the EM cycle • Provides for the readiness & testing of all actions & plans prior to actual application in a real event or disaster • Close connection between mitigation & preparedness • Difference can sometimes be unclear • Preparedness is the planning for best response • Mitigation is all efforts to prevent or lessen the need for response
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