Introduction to Homeland Security
Research Project Overview
Overview and Templates
Risk
• Three questions to ask when considering
risk:
1) What can happen?
2) How likely is it? (probability)
3) What are the consequences?
• Risk = the probability of occurrence x the
consequences
Risk (cont.)
• Probability most difficult to determine
• Often based more on expert judgment than
concrete evidence
• Can use historical data to calculate
probability
Risk (cont.)
• Example of probability estimates
• Certain: >99% chance of occurring in a given year
(One or more occurrence a year)
• Likely: 50-99% chance of occurring in a given year
(One occurrence every 1 to 2 years)
• Possible: 5-49% chance of occurring in a given year
(One occurrence every 2 to 20 years)
• Unlikely: 2-5% chance of occurring in a given year
(One occurrence every 20 to 50 years)
• Rare: 1-2% chance of occurring in a given year (One
occurrence every 50 to 100 years)
• Extremely Rare: <1% chance of occurring in a given
year (One occurrence every 100 or more years)
Risk (cont.)
• Consequences: a measure of expected
disaster impacts
• Tangible – loss of life, property
• Intangible – psychological impact, morale
• Difficult to quantify
• Once factors are determined, it is possible
to compare risks
• Risk matrix
Consequences
Measure
Tangible Losses
Intangible Losses
Deaths
# of people
Loss of economically active
individuals
Social & psych. effects on
remaining community
Injuries
# & injury severity
Med. treatment needs, temp.
loss of economic activity by
productive individuals
Social & psych. Pain &
recovery
Physical damage
Inventory of
damaged elements by
# & damage level
Replacement & repair cost
Cultural losses
Emergency
operations
Value of manpower,
person-days
employed, equip. &
resources expended
to relief mobilization
cost, investment in
preparedness
capability
Stress & overwork in relief
participants
Disruption to
economy
# of working days
lost, volume of prod.
lost
Value of lost production
opportunities, & in
competitiveness & reputation
Social disruption
Number of working
days lost
Temp. housing, relief, &
economic production
Psych., social contacts,
cohesion, comm. morale
Environmental
impact
Scale & severity
Cleanup costs, repair costs
Consequences of poorer
environment, health risks,
risk of future disaster
Example Risk Matrix
1-20 = Low Risk
CONSEQUENCES
(NOTE: Below are only examples. You will have to determine the consequences
particular to your site.)
21-40 = Moderate
Risk
41-59 = High Risk
20
Insignificant
damage to
property &
equipment,
minor injury
60-100 = Extremely
High Risk
40
Nonreportable
injury, minor
loss of process/
business, or
slight damage
to property
60
Reportable
injury,
moderate loss
of process/
business, or
limited
damage to
property
80
Major injury,
single fatality,
critical loss of
process/
business, or
damage to
property
100
Multiple
fatalities,
catastrophic
loss of process/
business, or
loss of
property
LIKELIHOOD (Probability)
Certain: >99%
(.99)
20
40
60
80
100
Likely: 50-99%
(.50-.99)
10 - 19.8
20 - 39.6
30 – 59.4
40 - 79.2
50 - 99
Possible: 5-49%
(.05-.49)
1 – 9.8
2 – 19.6
3 – 29.4
4 – 39.2
5 - 49
Unlikely: 2-5%
(.02-.05)
.4 - 1
.8 - 2
1.2 - 3
1.6 - 4
2-5
Rare: 1-2%
(.01-.02)
.2 - .4
.4 - .8
.6 – 1.2
.8 – 1.6
1-2
.18
.36
.54
.72
.99
Extremely Rare:
<1% (.009)
CIKR Project Template
• The following is a suggested CIKR
project format
• Use the previous risk matrix to
evaluate your site
• Multiply the numbers in the parentheses
in the Likelihood axis by the number in
the Consequences axis
• This will give you your overall risk
CIKR Description Template
• Location
• Map or maps?
• Photos?
• Description/Function
• What does it do?
• What is its function?
• NOTE: Do not give a history of the site
unless it is a necessary part of its
description
• Justification as a CIKR
• Why is it important?
Hazard Evaluation Template
(There should be one for each hazard that is evaluated )
• Hazard (e.g. – 5.0/moderate earthquake, cat. 2
hurricane, power outage, etc.)
• Likelihood
• Value
• Justification (how you arrived at the value)
• Consequence
• Value
• Description (what exactly could/might happen)
• Justification (how you arrived at the value)
• Total Risk Number
• Ranking
• __ out of __ (of all the risks you are evaluating)
• Discussion/evaluation of mitigation/preparedness/
prevention efforts (if any)
Risk (cont.)
• Once risk is identified, how can it be
mitigated?
• Risk managers try to reduce either or
both:
• Probability
• Consequence
Mitigation
• Mitigation: a sustained action to reduce
or eliminate risk to people & property from
hazards & their effects
• Mitigation activities address either or both
components of risk
• Probability (likelihood)
• Consequence
• Mitigating either one reduces the threat
Prevention Actions & Programs
• Prevention: actions taken to avoid an
incident or intervening to stop an incident
from occurring, in an effort to save lives &
property
• National Response Framework (NRF)
may be implemented for threats or
potential incidents of national
significance to prevent or intervene in
order to lessen the impact of an incident
Prevention Actions & Programs
(cont.)
• Prevention activities may include:
• Heightened inspections
• Improved surveillance & security operations
• Public health & agricultural surveillance &
testing
• Immunizations, isolation, or quarantine
• Specific law enforcement operations aimed at
deterring, preempting, interdicting, or
disrupting illegal activity & apprehending
potential perpetrators & bringing them to
justice
Prevention Actions & Programs
(cont.)
• Most prevention activities are related
to terrorism
• As defined w/in the NRF, any activity that
intends to prevent terrorist attacks can be
qualified as a prevention measure
Preparedness
• Preparedness: a state of readiness to respond
to a disaster, crisis, or any other type of
emergency situation
• Preparedness activities can be categorized as
the human component of hazard management
• Most common:
• Training
• Public Education
• They do little to prevent a disaster, but are very
effective at ensuring that people know what to
do once one has happened
Preparedness Actions &
Programs
• Preparedness:
• It includes those activities, programs, &
systems that exist before an emergency that
are used to support & enhance response to
an emergency or disaster
• Evacuation drills
• First responder training
Preparedness (cont.)
• Important part of the EM cycle
• Provides for the readiness & testing of all
actions & plans prior to actual application in a
real event or disaster
• Close connection between mitigation &
preparedness
• Difference can sometimes be unclear
• Preparedness is the planning for best
response
• Mitigation is all efforts to prevent or lessen the
need for response