Tertiary education enrolment
trends and projections in Latvia
Zane Cunska
Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies / University of Latvia
Presentation in Eurostat/UNECE Work Session
April 29 2010 / Lisbon
Content
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Tertiary education in Latvia: facts and situation
Projection methods
Scenarios
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Stable enrollment ratio scenario
Global education trend scenario
Crisis scenario
Results
Conclusions
Population (15-24y) projections, LV
40000
35000
15
30000
16
17
18
19
25000
20
21
22
20000
23
24
15000
10000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060
Source: EUROPOP2008, Eutostat
Student population in LV
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In 2009 for the first time Latvia has experienced
significant fall
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In total enrolment: : minus 10,2%;
In first year undergraduate: minus 26% in comparison to
previous year
Number of students
Number of Students per 10000 Inhabitants
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
227 264
172 173 158 138 152 183
386
314 342
Year
539 556 562 566 552 545
496
492
453
Age-specific student ratios in LV (1998-2010)
Methods
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Enrolment-ratio method
Age-specific enrolment ratio Ext=rxt Txt , based on
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Eurostat population projections Txt
Ratio development trends rxt
Three development scenarios
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Stable enrollment ratio
Global education trend
Crisis
Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio
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Tertiary education developing smoothly into the future,
only changes arise from the differences in cohort size.
Assumes:
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proportion of students in the respective overall age cohort will
continue to change in the same average speed and direction as
over the previous period (1998-2010)
Transition rates and dropout rates will change at an average
annual rate of change experienced in the observation period
ln(Y/Y(t-1)) = alpha/trend i.e., extrapolate the observed trends
over the years 1998-2010, using the OLS and putting a
constraint that the growth converges to zero when time
converges to infinity
Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio
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All trends positive
or virtually constant
Growth in ratio of
younger students
(20-23) and nontraditional student
age group (29-39)
Proportions of
students in 24-28
and 40-plus age
groups remain
stable at 2010 level
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (20112020) age-year specific enrolment ratios
Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio
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Total number of students in
tertiary education will
decrease from 113 thousands
in 2010 to 92 thousands in
2020 (minus 20%)
Most severe decline in the 1824 years student groups – by
44%
Proportion of “traditional” age
students will decrease from
64% in 2010 to 44% in 2020,
Size of older age student
groups (29-39 and 40 plus) will
remain stable
Share of older age students
(over 29) will increase from
24% to 44%
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020)
number of students in the tertiary education
Scenarios – Global education trend
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Takes into account the schooling pattern across European
countries and assumes that the lifestyle and study
patterns in Latvia and EU converge.
Assumes:
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The 2011-2020 enrolment ratio structure for Latvia is
converge to that of EU-27
ln(Y/Tt-1) = B(Yt-1-Yav)
i.e., the age-specific enrolment rates Y will converge to the EU27 average, the speed being dependent on the size of the
difference between the rate at t-1 and Yav
Scenarios – Global education trend
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The enrolment ratios in
EU-27 have been
gradually raising in period
1998-2005, and stabilized
since 2005
They are generally lower
that Latvian 2010 rates
Consequently, all but 25
and 26 year-old rate
trends are negative
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (20112100) age-year specific enrolment ratios
Scenarios – Global education trend
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Decline in enrolment at all ages
- minus 38% compared to 2010
Total enrolment in 2020 fall to
1998 level (70 thousand
students)
More than 50% reduction in
traditional age student numbers
(from 72 to 35 thousands).
13% fall (from 17 to 15
thousands) in the older age (29
plus) students
Student population will be older
and the proportion of nontraditional students (older than
25) in the total student
population will increase to 50%
in contrast to 36% in 2010
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020)
number of students in the tertiary education
Scenarios - Crisis
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Designed to capture the effects, that do not follow from
statistics, but can be concluded from literature on historical
development in other countries,
Subjective - author’s and expert opinions based scenario
Broad age groups
Assumes:
Age
Assumption
17-24
Enrolment rate is at the pre-crisis level (2008) for 3 years, converges to EU27 average after 2013.
25-28
Enrolment rate increases by 15% compared to 2008 for following 3 years,
converges to EU-27 average after 2013.
29 plus
Enrolment rate remains constant over following 3 years, converges to EU27 average after 2013.
Scenarios - Crisis
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Crisis would have a shortterm positive impact on
enrolment rates that will
slightly increase above the
2010 level and stay there
between 2011 and 2013
Rise in the 25-28 age
student enrolment
After the 2013 enrolment
rates fall approaching the
EU-27 level
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020)
age-year specific enrolment ratios
Scenarios - Crisis
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Total number of students in
the period 2011-2013 would
increase compared to 2009
and 2010 level
The total number of young
students would not be as high
as before
The 25-28 years and 29 plus
student group is expected to
remain roughly the same size
throughout the entire period
2000-2020
Total number of students in
2020 will fall to 81 thousands,
less than half (47%) of the
students being in
the “traditional” age
Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020)
number of students in the tertiary education
Summary
1998
2010
Actual enrolment
Total
70233
112555
2020
SER
GET
CRI
92152
69434
80841
Proportions of age groups in total number of students
17-24
73%
64%
44%
50%
47%
25-28
16%
13%
12%
16%
17%
29 plus
11%
24%
44%
33%
36%
Total number of students in tertiary education
according to three alternative scenarios
Conclusions
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HE system in front of big changes
Inexperienced situation
Under any development scenario the total enrolment is
very likely to fall (decrease by 18-38%)
The big number of higher education institutions cannot
be sustained
Foreign students are unlikely to fully compensate for
decrease of cohorts
Thank you!