Standing Committee on Transport – Urban Congestion Management Working Group
National Workshop on Urban Transport Modelling
Public Transport
Professor Graham Currie
Chair of Public Transport, Institute of Transport Studies, Monash University
www.monash.edu.au
Institute of Transport Studies
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. Ten Issues
3. Recommendations
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This paper focuses on Public Transport Modelling Issues
associated with Urban Congestion
•
•
•
It concerns modelling issues
associated with public transport but
related to urban congestion in Australia
A major aim is to identify issues and
recommendations for COAG
Many of the comments made are
relevant to other areas of transport
modelling
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It is structured as follows:
Ten
Issues
Recommendations
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Agenda
1. Introduction
2. Ten Issues
3. Recommendations
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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Optimism Bias is the cause of the Australian rail forecast
‘disasters’ – have we solved it?
•
•
•
Sydney and Brisbane Airport Railways failed due to
forecast error
Flyvbjerg (1996) Rail Patronage Forecasts:
– on average, the actual patronage on the sample rail
projects was 40% lower than forecast;
– at the 95% confidence interval, the patronage was
between 19% to 60% lower than forecast
Causes (McGregor and Raimond, 2005):
– Strategic Misrepresentation
• Need for Independent
– Judgement Bias
Advice
– Methodological Bias
• Need for Informed Second
– Poor Project Definition
Opinion
• Need to Control Use of
Modelling Results
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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The cause of today’s congestion is predict and
provide planning – have we stopped yet?
Modelling Issues
Traffic
Congestion
Traffic
Growth
Provide
More
Roads
Predict
And
Provide
Prove
Need for
More Roads
Need
More Road
Capacity
Do Traffic
Modelling
Study
•
Modelling the induced
demand problem long
term
•
Disappearing Traffic
and Road Diets
•
Accurate
representation of
wider social effects of
traffic congestion
•
Accurate
representation of
public transport
choices
•
Exogenous factors
influencing demand
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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Most PT modelling uses 4 step models – these are
hopeless at anything but broad PT forecasting
Where does
Forecasting a
2-10% PT mode
share fit into
this level
of accuracy?
Source: Zhao, Yong and Kara Kockelman. “The Propagation of Uncertainty through Travel Demand
Models: An Exploratory Analysis.” Annals of Regional Science 36 (1), pp. 145-163, March 2002.
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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PTA models have more detailed data but have
a range of weaknesses
Public Transport Assignment Models (PTA)
•
•
Model Public Transport modes only but
to a greater degree of detail
Involves good quality origin
destination surveys
•
Focus is shorter term tactical planning
•
Involves reassignment of trips between
PT modes and routes
•
Modelling Issues
•
No representation of
‘choice’ road user
markets
•
Fails to represent
impacts of expansion
of services into new
areas/ new trips
•
No detailed
representation of
Based on Fixed or ‘elasticised’ trip
matrices. Can be interfaced with MMT
models
–
Mode split
–
Trip redistribution
Auckland NZ has a Combined 4 Step and PTA Model
•
Combines the benefit of detail on base PT system usage with
multi-modal modelling
•
Handles the problem of PT expansion into new areas
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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Most authorities are wondering how to consider
transit oriented development in modelling
Base Case
Land Use
Option Case
Land Use
(Transit
Oriented
Development)
Base Case
Model
Base Case
Networks
Option Case
Model
Option
Case
Networks
Option
Case
Forecast
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While land-use transport modelling remains
more theoretical than practical
Modelling Issues
Base Case
Land Use
Base Case
Model
Option Case
Model
Option Case
Land Use
Base Case
Networks
Option
Case
Networks
•
No before and after
data to calibrate land
use transport models
•
Lack of empirical data
•
Very difficult to
understand interrelationships between
land use and
networks in models
Option
Case
Forecast
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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Few urban models work under PT capacity constraint
though this now dominates big city transit
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No solution to the Capacity>Frequency>Growth
Conundrum has been found
Capacity>Frequency>Growth Conundrum
Overloaded
Transit
Market
Growth
Increase
Capacity
Increase
Frequency
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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Transit priority remains the most efficient
use of limited congested roadspace
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But modelling of priority is remarkably
simplistic
Table - Alternative Traffic Flow and Travel Behaviour Modelling Approaches in Public Transport Priority Evaluation Research.
RESEARCH REFERENCE
Vuchic
(2)
Black et
al (8)
Jepson and
Ferreira (7)
Radwan &
Benevelli (3)
Oldfield
et al (4)
Delgoffe (9)
UK Dept. of
Transport(6)
Approach to Traffic Flow Modelling (✔=Approach Adopted)
No Direct Consideration of Traffic
Impacts
✔
✔
No Specific Model Adopted
Standard Static Analytical or
Mathematical Model
✔
Dynamic Traffic Simulation
Modelling Used
✔
✔
✔
✔
-
Travel Behaviour Modelling (✔=Included ✘ = Not Included)
Speed Flow Capacity Analysis
✘
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
Traffic Route Diversion Considered
✘
✘
✘
✘
✔
✔
✔
Mode Shift Considered
✘
✘
✘
✘
✘
✘
✔
Trip Generation Considered
✘
✘
✘
✘
✘
✘
✔
Disappearing Traffic Considered
✘
✘
✘
✘
✘
✘
✘
Source: Currie G Sarvi M Young W (2006) ‘A New Approach to Evaluating On-Road Public Transport Priority Projects: Balancing the Demand for Limited Road
Space” Transportation (published on line 15th Nov 2006 - DOI 10.1007/s11116-006-9107-3)
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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We don’t know why big city rail demand is
booming
Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion
170.0
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
Rail Boardings
M p.a.
110.0 of Transport Studies
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100.0
24
1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 20051995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
6
Modelling emphasis is on endogenous
factors not exogenous
EXOGENOUS FORECASTS
Things that affect society as a whole – not controlled
by Transit Operators
•
Socio-Economic influences on
demand. Such as changes in :
– Population
– Employment/ Unemployment
– Income
– Age distribution
– Fuel Costs
ENDOGENOUS FORECASTS
Things that Transit Operators/Planners can change
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fare
Service Level (Frequency)
Travel Time/Speed
Reliability
Service design – route alignment
Amenity provision (seats,
shelter, information, quality of
the environment, personal
safety)
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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Post implementation reviews create
informed quality modelling…..
Transport
Model
Modelling
Improvement
Option
Case
Networks
Option
Case
Forecast
Post
Implementation
Review
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…..but are rare as hens teeth
Transport
Model
Modelling
Improvement
Option
Case
Networks
Option
Case
Forecast
Post
Implementation
Review
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2. Issues
a.
Optimism Bias
b.
Predict and Provide
c.
Generality – The 4 Step Problem
d.
Specificity – The PTA Problem
e.
Land Use and Transit
f.
Capacity Constraint
g.
Road Space Allocation
h.
Exogenous Drivers
i.
Post Implementation Reviews
j.
Knowledge Management
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Australian knowledge sharing about modelling is
dispersed, often lost and almost non existant
•
Industry Advocacy Groups
•
•
•
•
•
Good industry
knowledge sharing
e,g, marketing
group
No publications
Limited research
Not fully funded or
continuous
Limited participation
Limited modelling
•
•
Very limited funding
Single workshop in
25 years on
modelling
•
Doesn’t deal in
strategic knowledge
transfer
Rarely transit multimodal
Often ‘Gunzels’/ rail
enthusiasts
Transport
Professional
Associations
SCOT
•
•
•
Good industry
knowledge sharing
Few publications
Nothing on
modelling
Professional
Journals
•
•
•
ARRB
•
•
Good industry
knowledge sharing
Few publications
Road/ Highway
specific
Academic
Journals
•
•
•
•
ITE
•
Not focused on
knowledge
development
Little Transit
•
Professional
Rather Theorectical
Advocacy Group
Deals in new
•
Not Transit Related
knowledge
•
Limited/No
Poor industry
Modelling
distribution or
Publications
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KNOWLEDGE DEVELOPMENT processes –
good people but almost zero dissemination
• Consulting
– very state/territory based
– very limited knowledge sharing (commercial issues/
confidentiality issues/ political issues)
• Academia
– not much real public transport work
– trend towards very theoretical work
• Commercial World
– concern over intellectual capital rights
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The USA has an extensive open inclusive industry participation and
knowledge development/ sharing program for all transport research
TCRP Structure
TCRP Research Process
US Federal
Government
National
Academy of
Sciences
American
Public
Transportation
Association
Federal Transit
Administration
(Sponsor)
Transportation
Research
Board
Transit
Development
Corporation
Transit Cooperative Research Program
Related Activities
Transportation
Research
Board
American
Public
Transportation
Association
Annual Conference
Annual Conference
Free and open to all for suggestions
• Transit Agencies/ APTA
• TRB Staff/ TRB Committees
• FTA/ Universities
• Consultants
Annual Problem
Statements
TCRP Oversight & Project
Selection Committee (TOPS)
• FTA Strategic Goals and
Priorities
Problem
Statement Selection
(Workshops)
TEA 21-Transportation Equity Act
for the 21st Century
Project Resourcing
Research Providers
Call for Tenders
TRCP Project Panel
Provider Selection
Research
Publication (Free Web Download)
TRB Committee Meetings
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In PT It conducts knowledge development in 9 fields and 6
program areas, with 4 strategic goals and 5 strategic priorities
TCRP Problem Areas
Program Areas
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Safety and Security
Equipment and Infrastructure
Fleet Operations
Specialized Transit Services
Planning and Policy
Professional Capacity Building
A Operations
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
Strategic Goals and Policy Initiatives
1.
2.
3.
4.
Security Readiness
Ridership
Project Planning and Oversight
Workforce Development
Scheduling
Vehicle Operations
Control Systems
Fare Collection
User Information
Systems
Safety and Security
B Service Configuration
21.
22.
23.
24.
System Planning
Specialized Service
Planning
Service Performance
Marketing
C Vehicle Equi Engineering
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
E Maintenance
D Fixed Facility Engineering
41.
42.
43.
44.
Buildings
Rail Operating
Facilities
Passenger Stops and
Terminals
Bus Stop Facilities
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
Vehicle Servicing
Vcl. Inspectn & Maint.
Vcl Corrective Repairs
Overhaul & Rebuilding
Non-Vcle Maintenance
Maintenance
Management
Buses
Vans
Heavy Rail Cars
Commuter Rail Vcls
Light Rail Cars
People Movers
Vehicle Components
F Human Resources
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
Recruitment
Training
Employee Reviews
JobClassification
Salary Administration
Labor Relations
Performance Imprvemnt
Strategic Priorities
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Customer first
Transit in a technologically
advanced society
Continuously improve transit
Flourish the multi-modal
system
Revistalize transit
organizations
G Administration
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
Financial Management
Procurement &
Inventory Control
Risk Management
Law
Management Info
Systems
Transit Organizations
H Policy and Planning
81.
82.
83.
84.
Policy Analysis
Planning
Economics
Environmental
Analysis
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J Special Projects
91.
Areas not covered
166 project reports
&
60
industry synthesis
Transport Studies
33
TRB Modelling activities are extensive
ADB00: Section - Travel
Analysis Methods
ADB00 Section - Travel
Analysis Methods
ADB10 Traveler Behavior
and Values
ADB20 Telecommunications
and Travel Behavior
ADB30 Transportation
Network Modeling
ADB40 Transportation
Demand Forecasting
ADB50 Transportation
Planning
Applications
ADB60TTask Force on
Moving ActivityBased Approaches
to Practice
ADB99AInnovations in
Travel Demand
Modeling: A
Conference
AP000: Public Transportation Group
AP000 Public
Transportation
Group
AP010 Transit Management
and Performance
AP015 Transit Capacity and
Quality of Service
AP020 Emerging and
Innovative Public
Transport and
Technologies
AP025 Public
Transportation
Planning and
Development
AP030 Public
Transportation
Marketing and Fare
Policy
AP035 Transit Fleet
Maintenance
AP040 Major Activity Center
Circulation Systems
AP045 Intermodal Transfer
Facilities
AP050 Bus Transit Systems
AP055 Rural Public and
Intercity Bus
Transportation
AP060 Paratransit
AP065 Rail Transit Systems
AP070 Commuter Rail
Transportation
AP075 Light Rail Transit
AP080 Rail Transit System
Design
AP085 Ferry Transportation
ADA00: Section Transportation System Policy,
Planning and Process
ADA00 Section Transportation
System Policy,
Planning and
Process
ADA10 Statewide
Multimodal
Transportation
Planning
ADA20 Metropolitan Policy,
Planning, and
Processes
ADA30 Transportation
Planning for Small
and Medium-Sized
Communities
ADA40 Transportation
Needs of National
Parks and Public
Lands
ADA50 Transportation
Programming,
Planning, and
Systems Evaluation
ADA60 Public Involvement
in Transportation
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Is it time to do this in Australia
If yes, HOW?
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Agenda
1. Introduction
2. Ten Issues
3. Recommendations
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To tackle all the problems identified we need to solve
Australias knowledge development and sharing problem
Key PT Modelling Issues
Optimism Bias
Predict and Provide
Generality – The 4 Step
Problem
Specificity – The PTA
Problem
Land Use and Transit
Capacity Constraint
Road Space Allocation
Exogenous Drivers
Post Implementation Reviews
Knowledge Management
COAG Recommendations
•
An Australian Transportation
Research Board
– Build on the US model
– Define priority research and
education areas
– Scrupulous industry involvement
and sharing of all results
– ATRF as a national conference
federally supported each year
– Sponsor research committee to
focus research areas like
modelling around the national
conference
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