Current Topics
in ICT Area
Shigeki Goto
Department of Computer Science
Waseda University
Social Impact from/to ICT
• ICT, e.g. the Internet, brings Globalization.
• Globalization changed the structure of
world economy, politics and society.
• This social movement returns to ICT, or
it is already affecting ICT.
2
UUCP is used between Japan and the US
Old episode in 1986
• The first IP packet was sent in 1987.
• In 1986, the author worked at NTT Lab.
The total expenses for international phone call and
telex was 2,000 USD for the whole Lab.
UUCP to the US spent more than 2,000 USD.
• My boss called me.
Answer） It is cheaper than an international trip.
• The boss called me a couple of months later.
Reality）Both of phone bill and travel support increased.
3
1
ICT and Global Economy
• IT revolution is one of major historical
transformations in human society.
• Kazuo Mizuno, Why people misunderstand
the essence of global economy,
Nikkei Press, 2007.
1517 Martin Luther posted famous 95 theses.
1498 Vasco da Gama discovered the direct route
from Europe to India.
Terminated Middle Ages, opened Modern Ages
4
The Internet as an economic
General Purpose Technology (GPT)
• “ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS:
General Purpose Technologies and
Long Term Economic Growth".
• The Internet is not just a "product“
like automobiles or vacuum cleaners.
The Internet is a transformative general
purpose technology (GPT) whose impact
touches all aspects of society.
http://www.oup.co.uk/isbn/0-19-929089-X
5
Economic Transformations
General Purpose Technologies and
Long-Term Economic Growth
• The authors of the book list the Internet as
number 20 of the 24 General Purpose
Technologies throughout human history.
• Authors: Richard G. Lipsey,
Kenneth I. Carlaw, and Clifford T. Bekar
http://www.sfu.ca/~rlipsey/res.html
Richard G. Lipsey, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Simon Fraser University,
Kenneth I. Carlaw, Senior Lecturer, University of Canterbury,
and Clifford T. Bekar, Assoc Professor of Economics, Lewis and Clark College
6
24 Technologies
Chapter 5: A Survey of GPTs in Western History:
Part I 10,000 BC to 1450 AD
Domestication of plants
9000—8000 BC
Process
Domestication of animals
8500—7500 BC
Process
Smelting of ore
8000—7000 BC
Process
Wheel
4000—3000 BC
Product
Writing
3400—3200 BC
Process
Bronze
2800 BC
Product
Iron
1200 BC
Product
Waterwheel
Early medieval period
Product
7
24 Technologies
Chapter 6: A Survey Of GPTs in Western History:
Part II 1450 to 2010
The Three-Masted Sailing Ship
15th century
Product
Printing
16th century
Process
The Steam Engine Late 18th to early 19th century Product
Factory system
Late 18th to early 19th century Organizational
Railway
Mid 19th century
Product
Iron steamship
Mid 19th century
Product
Internal combustion engine
Late 19th century
Product
Electricity
Late 19th century
Product
8
24 Technologies
Chapter 6: A Survey Of GPTs in Western History:
Part II 1450 to 2010
Electricity
Late 19th century Product
Motor vehicle
20th century
Product
Airplane
20th century
Product
Mass production,
20th century
Organizational
continuous process, factory
Computer
20th century
Product
Lean production
20th century
Organizational
Internet
20th century
Product
Biotechnology
20th century
Process
Nanotechnology Sometime in the 21st century Process
9
Bill St. Arnaud
CAnet – news, CANARIE, CA
• If the Internet is just a product then the role of
government is pretty minimal.
• However if the Internet is a transformative
general purpose technology then the
public sector role is more important.
• GPTs begin as crude technologies with a limited
number of uses, but they evolve into much more
complex technologies with dramatic increases in
the range of their use across the economy and
in the range of economic outputs.
10
Waterwheel-driven cam
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
making beer (987);
treating hemp (1040);
fulling cloth (1086);
tanning leather (1138);
Sawing logs (1204);
Making paper (1238);
Grinding mustard (1251);
Drawing wire (1351);
Grinding pigments (1348); and
Cutting metal (1443);
11
2
Global Economy
Social Transformation
• 2nd Prize, Best Economics Book in 2007 Q1Q2.
• Kazuo Mizuno
Chief Economist, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities
• Why people misunderstand the essence of
global economy
• Nikkei Press, March, 2007.
• His lecture at Nanzan University, Japan
http://www.sc.mufg.jp/inv_info/ii_report/m_report/pdf/mr20070713.pdf
12
Major changes in social structure
1. Emerging Empires, losing nation-states
= Imperialism
2. Real economy is overwhelmed by
Financial economy = Financialization
3. Diminishing uniformity, enlarged gap
or difference = Class-structured society
Big gap
IT revolution and Globalization
13
３
Module Component
Made by Company A
Made by Company B
common components
Module structure
Masahiko Aoki, Towards a Comparative Institutional Analysis, MIT Press, 2001.
14
Module Structure
• Bicycle — Module Structure
Automobile — not module structure
 Integrated Structure
• An automobile will be assembled from modules.
An electric vehicle is similar to a computer.
• A motor-cycle is forced to take the module
structure.
Takahiro Fujimoto, Business Management of Manufacturing,
Kohbun-sha Shinsho 293, March, 2007.
15
The Internet
truly moduled structure
multi-vendor
OPEN
cf. Main-frame computers which are totally integrated.
16
Should we welcome module structure?
modules
Standard
• Low barrier for new-comers
Good chances for small companies
Big enterprises do not win the game. salvation by faith
reliance upon others
• Hot competition
Battle in niche markets
We cannot escape from this game.
17
Strategy for the module game
• Low cost production vs.
an innovative product
• We need Research and Development.
Catching-up is not a good strategy.
A pioneer takes all.
18
R&D and Risk management
• Success rate of R&D projects is very low.
95% of new projects will fail immediately.
• Risk management is an excellent mechanism.
Life insurance is meaningless for a single man.
• We need a good scheme for encouraging
challengers.
• It is a kind of division of labor.
19
An episode in Silicon Valley
• I have two US engineers in my group
when I worked at NTT Laboratories.
• They happened to work at the same start-up
company in Silicon Valley.
• I was asked to give a short talk to investors.
“I do not know their products. However, I do
know two talented engineers are working here.”
• I noticed that my speech went along a theory in
a text book for business management.
20
Silicon Valley Model
by Prof Masahiko Aoki
• It did not work in Japan.
Follow-up trials mostly failed even in the US.
• A venture capitalist and an entrepreneur do
help each other.
21
Old Japanese model
and the future model
• Main bank
• market finance
• Convoy of
companies
• contracted officials
old US model
What is the new model?
Most issues are apparent in ICT area.
We should solve them to make ICT stronger.
22
Measurement
23
Dark IP
Dark IP means an address which is not
assigned nor used
To observe a Dark IP space, it is actually allocated to a
machine which does not respond to any incoming packets.
Block all outgoing
packets
Anomaly packets
logging
Attacker
No response
Firewall
Sensor Box
(Dark IP)
PC
24
Virtual Sensors
Virtual Dark IP
New method for flow-based analysis
No need for physical sensors
A. Shimoda and S. Goto, Virtual Dark IP for Internet Threat Detection, APAN Network Research Workshop, pp.17-24, Aug 2007.
Normal Servers
No service
offered
Mutual Communications
Normal Hosts
One-way Access
Attackers
Unused IP space
Comparison – Port 135/tcp
Netflow packets
Virtual Sensors
Verified certain similarity between
Virtual Sensors and Physical Sensors
cooperate with REN-ISAC at Indiana University, IN
25
brain
2-layer
Network society is not flat.
gate keepers
3-layer
26
Network society is not flat.
27
Quick responses to
E-mail messages
48 hours
24 hours
28