The 4th International Conference on
Population Geographies
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Topic：Effects of Budgetary Policies on Population
Migration ―A complexity approach
Author & presenter : Min-shen Hsueh
Author : Prof. Shih-Kung Lai
Room :2A ELB-LT1
AM11:30-11:50 Date: July 11, 2007
Research structure
1. Introduction
2. Purpose & motivation of research
3. Methodology & design of research
4. Analysis of research
5. Result of research
6. Conclusions
Purpose & motivation of Research
Does population migration tested after the model
of power law with
1. Educational budget
2. Economic development budget
3. Community welfare budget
4. Community environmental protection budget
Could find or enforce agglomeration and
decentralization of population？
Issues of Research
1. Does public policy used will be affected on
the self-organization of population
migration ？
2. Does the phenomenon of power law on
population migration was affected by public
policies？
3. Does the independent character of power
law be affected by human activity ？
complexity theory
A new approach to science that studies how
relationships between parts give rise to the collective
behaviors of a system and how the elements interacts
and forms relationships with its environment.
1.Emergence
2.Nonlinearity
3.Interacting agents
4.Increasing returns
5.Self-organization(chaos, order, and complexity)
6.Power law
Power Law
A power law is any polynomial relationship that
exhibits the property of scale invariance.
Power law with a particular scaling exponent is
equivalent up to constant factors, its behavior is
what produces the linear relationship when both
logarithms are taken of both f(x) and x, and the
straight-line on the log-log plot is often called the
signature of a power law.
Power Law
Scale as bigger or smaller was contrasted with its
own numbers, but form linearity after double
logarithm. (example as city)
-q
Pr=P1*r , Pr ： scale of person of the r rank city, r：
rank (means slope),
P1：scale of person of the first rank city , q：Zipf
force (means r square and usually equal 1)
Slope means agglomeration (usually take
absolute value); r square means selforganization’s degree.
Slope as agglomerations or
disseminations
More steep, more agglomeration; less steep,
less agglomeration.
Affected of economic development budget-Taipei
county
Affected of community protection budget-Xinzu county
Self-organization
Self-organization is a process where the organization
(constraint, redundancy) of a system spontaneously
increases, i.e. without this increase being controlled
by the environment or an encompassing or otherwise
external system.
1.Activity of whole system ;
2.Many sub-systems in the whole system；
3.Internal logic behavior of each sub-systems；
4.Emergence of structure was not arise inherent among locations
differences but from internal logic behavior of the system.
5. Example: Critical Mass (bicycle), herd behaviors, groupthink
Research methodology
1.Number of analysis of Regions：
22counties/cities’s budget.
2.Number of analysis of Time：15time
items’ budget.
Methodology & design of research
Research of design-1
․ Targets： Education, Economic development,
Community welfare, Community environmental
protection budget & population of each
county/city in Taiwan.
․ Data（amount）be counterweigh ：
1.four budgets be managed with counterweigh ；
2.total add the value of four budgets after
counterweigh .
Research of design-2
1.Keeping order as big from small to the value
of general average；
2.22counties, and 15time series of budget with
ordering rank array.（rank as order of
number of each item; size as distribution of
4 budgets）
3.Double Logarithm to both of Rank and size,
coefficient of agglomeration of population
slope and R-square（as evidence of power
law）were taken.
Analysis of research-1
1、affected of educational budget ：
（1） population agglomeration coefficient
（as slope）：
․Regions：it could affected the population
agglomeration strongly.
․Time：be formed polarization on population
（2） self organization coefficient (as R-square)
․ Region：can not find high evidence of self
organization effect.
․ Time：could not find the relationships of self
organization effect.
Analysis of research-2
2、affected of economic development budget：
（1） population agglomeration coefficient（as
slope）：
․ regions： it could affected the population
agglomeration strongest among these four.
․ Time： could not find more agglomeration strongly.
（2） self organization coefficient (as R-square)
․ regions： could not find self organization effect .
․ Time：also could not find self organization effect
neither.
Analysis of research-3
3、 affected of community welfare ：
（1）population agglomeration coefficient
（as slope）：
․ Regions：could affected the population
agglomeration strongest as economic
development budget’s effect.
․ Time： also find it affected the population
agglomeration strongest too.
（2） self organization coefficient (as R-square)
․ Regions：no self organization effect.
․ Time：it was show self organization effect
stronger than others.
Analysis of research-4
4、 affected of community protection budget:
（1）population agglomeration coefficient（as slope）
․ Regions：it could affected the population
agglomeration stronger a little.
․ Time：it could not affect the population
agglomeration stronger.
（2） self organization coefficient (as R-square)
․ Regions：could not find high self organization effect.
․Time：it has more self organization effect
as community welfare’s effect.
Result-1
1 .power law & self organization
situations were working itself on the
regions with time passing, they do not
affect by man made；
they are not affected such as
educational budget has upper than the
limited, we can not find power law was
stop working.
Result-2
2.Man made as budget could not stop the
power law working, and self-organization
situations of natural matters were doing
itself automatically.
3.Budgetary policies such as educational
budget may push population
agglomerations move strongly, but just on
contemporary.
conclusions
Public policies were men made as limitation as
educational budget, under the test of time
series,
which its power law（population
agglomeration）and self-organization
degree were affected lower and less than
other three none limitation budgets effect.
1991年―2005年各區域及各年度（無預算分配）人口異動趨勢之slope
及R2數值表（slope取絕對值―以下同）
1991年―2005年台灣省各區域及時間預算分配人口異動趨
勢之slope及R2數值表
1991―2005各年度預算分配人口異動趨勢之
slope及R2數值表
Ending
Thank you very much