Sonali McDermid1
Cynthia Rosenzweig1, Jim Jones3, Jerry Hatfield4,
Alex Ruane1, and Jonathan Winter2
1NASA
GISS, 2Columbia University, 3University of Florida, 4USDA-Ames
American Geophysical Union, AgMIP Town Hall
December 4th, 2012
Objectives
•
Incorporate state-of-the-art climate products as well as crop and agricultural
trade model improvements in coordinated regional and global assessments of
future climate impacts
•
Include multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops and participants to explore
uncertainty and impact of data and methodological choices
•
Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, economics and climate to build
strong basis for applied simulations addressing key climate-related questions
•
Improve scientific and adaptive capacity for major agricultural regions in the
developing and developed world
•
Develop framework to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies
•
Link to key on-going efforts
– CCAFS, Global Futures, Harvest Choice, Yield Gap Atlas, SERVIR
– National Research Programs, National Adaptation Plans, IPCC, ISI-MIP
2
Objectives
•
Incorporate state-of-the-art climate products as well as crop and
agricultural trade model improvements in coordinated regional and
global assessments of future climate impacts
•
Include multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops and
participants to explore uncertainty and impact of data and
methodological choices
•
Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, economics, and
climate to build strong basis for applied simulations addressing key
climate-related questions
•
Improve scientific and adaptive capacity for major agricultural
regions in the developing and developed world
•
Develop framework to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies
•
Link to key on-going efforts
–
CCAFS, Global Futures, MOSAICC, Yield Gap Analysis,
SERVIR, MACSUR …
–
National Research Programs, National Adaptation Plans,
IPCC, ISI-MIP …
Two-Track Science Approach
Track 1
Historical
climate
conditions
Model calibration and
improvement
Crop
Models
Track 2
Future.
climate
..
scenarios
Driven by Data at
Sentinel Sites
Platinum
Gold
Silver
Evaluation
and
intercomparison
.
Agricultural
Economic
Models
Adaptation, mitigation,
and extensions
Future agricultural
production, trade,
and food security
Track 1: Model Improvement and Intercomparison
Track 2: Climate Change Multi-Model Assessment
Cross-Cutting Themes:
Uncertainty, Aggregation and Scaling,
Representative Agricultural Pathways
Regions and Crop Model Pilots
Haarweg
Lusignan
Ames
45˚
Ludhiana
Shizukuishi
Nanjing
Delhi
Los Baños
0˚
AgMIP Sentinel Sites
= Wheat
Rio Verde
= Maize
Piracicaba
= Rice
Morogoro
Ayr
La Mercy
Wongan Hills
Balcarce
= Sugarcane
-45˚
-90˚
0˚
90˚
Benefits include:
- Improved capacity for climate, crop and economic modeling to
identify and prioritize adaptation strategies
- Consistent protocols, scenarios and data access
- Improved regional assessments of climate impacts
- Facilitated transdisciplinary collaboration and active partnerships
- Contributions to National Adaptation Plans
Teams, Linkages and Outcomes
Climate Team
Cross-Cutting
Themes
• Soils
• Uncertainty
• Aggregation and
Scaling
Key
Interactions
Crop Modeling Team
• Representative
Agricultural
Pathways
Economics Team
Improvements and
Intercomparisons
•Crop models
•Agricultural economic models
•Scenario construction
•Aggregation methodologies
Assessments
• Regional
• Global
• Crop-specific
• Water
Resources
• Pests and
Diseases
Information
Technology
Team
• Livestock
and
Grasslands
Capacity Building
and Decision Making
• Regional vulnerability
• Adaptation strategies
• Trade policy instruments
• Technology exchange