PLAN OF MY TALK
• The outcomes we care about
• The myths that block action
• The economic context
• Programs to move us forward
• Beyond programs: building support
THE BOTTOM: EXTENT OF LOW WAGE
WORK AMONG ADULTS
30%
25%
20%
24%
19%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Below 2/3 of median Below Poverty wage,
wage
family of 4
Source: Osterman
THE MIDDLE: EMPLOYMENT TO
POPULATION RATIO, 25-54 YEAR OLDS
SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
FALLING EARNINGS: FULL TIME AND
FULL YEAR WORKERS
2002
2012
Men
$50,323
$49,398
Women
$38,548
$37,791
And losses cut across all groups but are worse for
Hispanics and African-Americans
MYTH 1: BAD JOBS ARE TEMPORARY
MYTH 2: IT IS ALL EDUCATION
MYTH 3: BECAUSE OF POLARIZATION
THE ONLY GOOD JOBS LEFT WILL BE
OUT OF REACH OF MOST PEOPLE
MYTH 4: INTERVENING MAKES
THINGS WORSE
SO, PROBLEM IS STRUCTURAL. WHAT
HAS HAPPENED?
EDUCATION AND SKILL
Unequal educational outcomes
COLLEGE GRADUATION RATES FOR
HIGH AND LOW INCOME CHILDREN
CHANGES IN HOW WORK IS
ORGANIZED
New Pathways
Paradoxical (and disturbing) behavior by
mainstream employers
Low wage employers resist efforts to raise the
floor
BUT WE CAN’T JUST MAKE FIRMS THE
VILLAIN
THE BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT….
PART OF THE PROBLEM IS ALSO THE BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT
Growth in Productivity, Household Income and Average Hourly Earnings
400
Average Hourly Earnings
350
Household Income
300
250
200
150
100
Source: Generated from data provided by Larry Mishel, Economic Policy Institute
07
20
04
20
01
20
98
19
95
19
92
19
89
19
86
19
83
19
80
19
77
19
74
19
71
19
68
19
65
19
62
19
59
19
56
19
53
19
50
19
47
50
19
Index (1947=100)
Productivity
HOW TO ADDRESS THESE CHALLENGES
Strengthen skills system, especially community
colleges
Make bad jobs good
Create more good jobs
Organize, and also create a powerful narrative
THERE IS AN OPENING
The labor force will grow only slowly
Increase age 25-54
1980-2000
35 MILLION
2000-2020
3 MILLION
Because firms are reducing their internal investment in skills
they are looking for help from schools and intermediaries
SO, MOVING FORWARD
PROGRAMMATIC STEPS
• Fix Human Capital system: Community
Colleges
• Update and enforce labor standards
• Policies that work with firms
COMMUNITY COLLEGES
STANDARDS
PROGRAMS THAT WORK WITH FIRMS
BUT
These are all programs. In fact we know what
works or, at least, what is very promising.
What is missing is the BROAD BASED SUPPORT
to make it happen.
MAKING IT HAPPEN
And finally, this talk wouldn’t be complete
without a picture of my new grandchildren
(identical twins, along with my daughters)….
THANK YOU