Pouya Fatemi
Alex Wu
Zinnia Horne
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$3.57 Billion in Revenue in the ‘07-’08
season1
Games broadcasted in over 215 countries and
territories 2
Fans in New York paid $74 million for tickets
in the ’04-’05 season 2
1http://www.plunkettresearch.com/Industries/Sports/SportsStatistics/tabid/273/Default.aspx
2
http://www.forbes.com/2005/12/22/nba-team-valuations_cz_mo_1222nbaintro.html
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How can we most accurately predict the
winner of the NBA All-Star Game?
What is the probability distribution of the
points scored by an NBA All-Star team?
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Pw = total points scored by Western
Conference = ∑ POSi
N = number of possessions per team per
game
POSi , discrete random variable with possible
values [0,1,2,3,4] – This represents the
possible number of points scored in each
possession
• Most likely outcome (mode) after a possession is to score 0 points.
•The next likely outcome is scoring two points.
•The average number of points scored is 1.0973, with a standard
deviation of 1.1074.
•Mean = N * [E(POSi)] = 90 * 1.0973 = 98.757
•Standard Deviation = (√N) * STD of POSi = (√90) * 1.1074 = 10.506
•Assumption: N (# of possessions team obtains in a game = 90)
# of Posessions vs. E(Points)
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
95.00
90.00
85.00
80.00
75.00
70.00
P(2 pt shots) vs. E(Points)
•Relationship between # of
possessions (x-axis) and
expected # of points scored
(y-axis).
•Assumed value in our model
was N = 90
0.88
0.9
0.84
0.86
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.74
0.76
0.68
0.7
0.72
0.64
0.66
0.58
0.6
0.62
0.54
0.56
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101 103 105
0.5
0.52
106.00
104.00
102.00
100.00
98.00
96.00
94.00
92.00
90.00
88.00
•Relationship between
percentage of 2-pointers (xaxis) and expected # of
points (y-axis).
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Effect of momentum
Treat seconds spent each possession as a
random variable bounded by 0 < seconds
spent <24