Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)
Understanding Wales: Opportunities for Secondary
Data Analysis
Chris Taylor
Wales Institute of Social & Economic Research, Data and Methods
What is the MCS?
• A UK birth cohort study
• The third major cohort study in the UK:
1. National Child Development Study – born in one
week in March 1958
2. British Cohort Study – born in one week in April
1970
3. Millennium Cohort Study – born during 2000
4. 2012 British Cohort Study
Cohort Studies
• Sometimes referred to as a panel study
• Longitudinal study: follows the same people over
time
• Observations and data collected at various points
during the lifecycle (“sweeps” or “surveys”)
• Two main forms of longitudinal analysis possible:
1. Observations are compared over time – i.e. changes over
lifecourse
2. Prior conditions can be used to explain later outcomes*
(* which may be known/unknown initially)
Aims of the MCS
•
•
•
•
•
•
A multi-purpose long-term resource for the research and policy community – more or less
emphasis on biomarkers?
Charting the of the social, economic and health conditions facing the cohort and their
consequences. Which dimensions of ‘development’? Beyond uni-directional accumulation
of cognitive attainment, academic attainments and avoidance of adult-reported behavioural
difficulties, freedom from illness and disability – identity, risk-taking, relationships, time use,
physical activity, brain development ? The emergence of capabilities?
Observation of intergenerational transmission of advantage and disadvantage and the
processes involved. Aspirations and expectations, agency of young person, role of school
and peers.
Comparison with other British and international cohorts. Opportunities opening up, coordination through EUCCONET
Collecting ‘new’ information, eg father’s involvement ,- friends, internet, media, qualitative
sub-studies, genetics, neuro-science?
To investigate the wider social ecology of the family, including community and services,
splicing in geo-coded data Schools, siblings
Design of the MCS
• Cohort born in all four seasons of the year
• Includes children in England, Scotland, Wales
and Northern Ireland
• Geographically clustered by electoral ward
• Over represents children from different ethnic
groups and those in deprived areas
Sweeps of the MCS
• MCS1: 2001-2002 (9 months old) – 19,000 children in
398 wards of the UK
• MCS2: 2003-2004 (3 years old)
• MCS3: 2006 (5 years old)
• MCS4: 2008 (7 years old)
• 2012 (11 years old)
• 2015 (14 years old)
• 2018 (17 years old)
Families in the first 3 surveys
COUNTRY
( at MCS1)
Number of
Sampled
Wards
Number of
Sampled
Families
MCS1
Achieved
Sample
9 months
MCS2
Achieved
Sample
(Age 3)
MCS3
Achieved
Sample
( Age 5)
ENGLAND
200
16,948
11,532
10,050
9,717
WALES
73
3,858
2,761
2,261
2,181
SCOTLAND
622
3,327
2,336
1,814
1,814
N IRELAND
62
3,068
1,923
1,465
1,534
UK
398
27,201
18,552
15,590
15,246
MCS Content
MCS 1
MCS2
MCS 3
MCS4
2001/2
9 months
2003/4
AGE 3
2005/6
AGE 5
2007/8
AGE 7
Mother
Mother
Mother
Mother
Father
Father
Father
Father
Child
Child
Child
Older
Siblings
Older
Siblings
Teachers
Education
records
Education
records
Birth
records
Medical
records
Medical
records
Medical
records
18,552
c. 15,590
15,246
?14,500
Content of parent interviews
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Household questionnaire
Family Context
Early Education, schooling & childcare
Child & Family Activities
Parenting Activities
Child Health
Parent’s Health
Employment, Education and Income
Housing & Local Area
Social and Community Context
Self-completion
Older Siblings (Age 3 and 5)
(Either Parent)
(Main)
(Main)
(Main)
(Main & Partner)
(Main)
(Main & Partner)
(Main & Partner)
(Main) + Interviewers MCS2
(Main & Partner)
(Main & Partner)
(Main)
Direct assessments on child
• Cognitive Assessments
– Age appropriate e.g. BAS Naming Vocabulary at 3 and 5,
– BAS Pattern Construction at 5 and 7
• Self Completed Questionnaire
– New at age 7
• Physical Measurements
–
–
–
–
Height
Weight (+ Body fat at age 7)
Waist Measurement
Physical Activity, age 7 ( WT funded)
MCS in Wales
• Boosted sample – representative sample
– ‘Disadvantaged’ (25% most disadvantaged wards
in England and Wales) (@ 69% of families in
sample)
– ‘Non-disadvantaged’ (the rest, ‘advantaged’)
Sweep
MCS1
Age
9 months
Families
2,761
Children
2,799
MCS2
MCS3
MCS4
3 years
5 years
7 years
2,261
2,181
2,018
(1,779)
2,288
2,208
2,039
Key references
Hansen et al (2010) MCS Fourth Survey: A user’s guide to initial findings (CLS,
IoE)
Joshi and Hawkes (2006) Early and late entry to motherhood in Wales: report
to the Welsh Assembly Government
Dex et al (2010) The development of children living in Wales: final report to
the Welsh Assembly Secondary Analysis Programme
Jones et al (2010) An investigation into regional differences in child health and
cognitive function: report for the Economic Research Unit, Welsh
Assembly Government
Joshi et al (2011) Child development at age seven in Wales, Welsh
Government Social Research 25/2011
Key findings so far
• Country-specific ‘effect’ of living in Wales on child health and
cognitive functions (e.g. on occurrence of accidents, hospital
admissions for non-accident illness, child obesity, BAS Naming
Vocabulary scores (spoken English)), and seem to get stronger
as the children age
• Maternal characteristics seem more influential on child health
and development than they do for children in England
• Family income not as important in determining child health
compared to other factors, and seems less important than in
England
• Cognitive development is associated with poverty (and
neighbourhood) but other factors seem more important in
determining these kinds of outcomes
Key findings continued
• Different socio-economic indicators predict variation
in different aspects of child development: complex
relationships
• Parenting behaviour influences outcomes, regardless
of socio-economic advantage
• Regular reading and ‘routines’ highly associated with
preferable outcomes
• Early years hugely influential on later outcomes (and
‘gaps’ tend to grow over time). Cumulative impact
also important.
Key findings continued
• Children from Welsh-speaking families tend to have
lower levels of vocabulary skills (in English or Welsh)
at age 3 and 5 but not in other cognitive
developments.
• This ‘gap’ seems to disappear at age 7 (delayed
function?).
• But children from Welsh-speaking homes have lower
scores in maths at age 7
Future analysis
• Home-international comparisons
– The impact of testing in schools
– Living and growing up in rural areas
• Regional comparisons
– The use and development of the Welsh language and bilingualism
– The interrelationships between spatial and social mobility of families
• Local variations
– The presence and impact of higher levels of social capital amongst
families in Wales
– The impact of socio-economic disadvantage on attitudes towards
education and future prospects
Further information
• Dr Chris Taylor, WISERD Cardiff University
[email protected]
@dr_christaylor
• Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Institute of
Education, University of London
www.cls.ioe.ac.uk