1/19/2017
Don’t Make Any Sudden Moves, Mr. Trump ­ WSJ
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COMMENTARY
Don’t Make Any Sudden Moves, Mr.
Trump
Heedless action—tearing up the Iran deal or moving the U.S. embassy in Israel—may make
things worse.
PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
By RICHARD HAASS
Updated Jan. 18, 2017 7:25 p.m. ET
Stare decisis ought to apply to foreign policy. In legal circles, that phrase—Latin for “let
it stand”—means that judges and courts emphasize precedent and allow existing
decisions to prevail unless there is strong reason to overturn them. The idea is to
discourage individual courts from doing their own thing, which could create a
dysfunctional patchwork of rulings. The notion reflects an understanding that the
integrity, reputation and legitimacy of the legal system would suffer were the law to
shift too frequently.
There is much to be said for a foreign policy equivalent of stare decisis. To say so isn’t to
argue against all change: Every policy should be reviewed regularly and revised as
circumstances warrant. Fresh opportunities arise, as do new threats. But wholesale,
frequent reversals of foreign policy run the risk of unnerving friends and emboldening
adversaries.
The U.S. should be especially wary of sudden or sharp departures in what it undertakes
abroad. Consistency and reliability are essential attributes for a great power. Allies who
depend on Washington for their security need to know that this dependence is well
placed. Serious doubt about America would inevitably give rise to a very different and
much less orderly world.
There would be two reactions. First, “self-help” would increase, as countries take
matters into their own hands in ways inconsistent with American interests—
including by developing their own nuclear weapons. Second, many countries could fall
under the sway of stronger regional states, undermining the balance of power. This is a
prescription for instability.
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1/19/2017
Don’t Make Any Sudden Moves, Mr. Trump ­ WSJ
As soon as President-elect Trump is inaugurated, he will face many difficult challenges:
from an unraveling Middle East to an uncertain Europe to a blustering North Korea.
Rushing to reverse longstanding American policies could generate new challenges and
make existing ones harder to resolve.
A few items already in the news suggest precisely what the new administration should
not do. The first would be to discard the “one China” policy. For 4½ decades, Washington
and Beijing have successfully finessed the difference between the mainland’s claims to
Taiwan and America’s commitment to the principle that any change in the island’s
status can only come about peacefully and voluntarily. Central to this successful
maneuver is the idea that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it.
The formula has not only allowed Taiwan to flourish economically and become a
thriving democracy, it has enabled the U.S. and China to develop important economic
ties and cooperate on a range of regional and global challenges. Continuing to finesse
the issue is far preferable to abandoning “one China.” The latter course risks triggering
armed conflict with Beijing, ruling out any possibility of cooperation on North Korea,
and poisoning what will be the most important bilateral relationship of this century.
A second error would be to “tear up,” or not to comply in any way with, the 2015 nuclear
pact with Iran. The agreement isn’t ideal: The U.S. arguably paid too much for too little.
But undermining it now—or being perceived as doing so—would isolate Washington, not
Tehran. Reconstituting the world-wide regime of sanctions that existed before the
agreement would prove impossible. The U.S. would quickly face the unpalatable choice
between watching Iran cross the nuclear threshold or starting a war in an effort to stop
it.
The Trump administration would be wiser to focus on ensuring that Iran complies with
the existing accord. At the same time, though, the U.S. and its partners should develop a
strategy to deal with Tehran’s push for regional primacy. It could include bolstering
Sunni states and groups, aiding Kurdish forces, and imposing new sanctions on Iran.
The U.S. could also begin planning a follow-on pact that would constrain Tehran’s
nuclear options once important aspects of the current deal expire.
A third mistake would be to immediately move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem
from Tel Aviv. This might at first seem like a sensible proposal, even an obvious one.
Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and where most government officials reside and work.
But moving the embassy comes with real downsides, only some of which relate to the
diplomacy—going nowhere slowly—intended to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The bigger argument is that moving the embassy risks making Jerusalem an even
greater magnet for protest, violence and terrorism. The move could take a conflict that
has lost more than a little salience in the Muslim world and transform it into a crisis,
increasing the threat to American embassies and personnel world-wide.
American foreign policy could stand some change, but it should be introduced only
when the probable benefits outweigh the risks and costs. The new administration
should proceed with caution: It is inheriting a global situation that can only be
described as daunting. This is no time to make conditions worse.
Mr. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, is the author of “A World in
Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order,” just out from Penguin
Press.
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