"Rich States, Poor States" fails itself:
Laffer's predictions worse than coin flip
Even measured by his own standards, Arthur Laffer's economic
predictions in ALEC's "Rich States, Poor States" are far off the mark
2007-13
Average
Performance
Rank
State
Alabama
24
Alaska
14
Arizona
9
Arkansas
18
California
38
Colorado
17
Connecticut
43
Delaware
28
Florida
8
Georgia
28
Hawaii
20
Idaho
11
Illinois
48
Indiana
45
Iowa
35
Kansas
38
Kentucky
31
Louisiana
32
Maine
23
Maryland
20
Massachusetts
41
Michigan
50
Minnesota
35
Mississippi
40
Missouri
39
Montana
4
Nebraska
28
Nevada
12
New Hampshire
27
New Jersey
42
New Mexico
9
New York
41
North Carolina
23
North Dakota
10
Ohio
49
Oklahoma
10
Oregon
25
Pennsylvania
39
Rhode Island
34
South Carolina
24
South Dakota
12
Tennessee
30
Texas
2
Utah
15
Vermont
22
Virginia
7
Washington
11
West Virginia
24
Wisconsin
41
Wyoming
3
Average
Outlook
Rank
18
30
6
15
44
7
38
31
10
9
43
8
46
17
27
24
40
20
45
28
27
23
40
17
16
35
33
13
28
44
33
50
22
11
39
15
41
40
45
26
3
10
14
1
49
5
30
32
26
5
Average
Predicted
Change
+5
-16
+3
+4
-6
+11
+5
-4
-4
+18
-23
+4
+3
+29
+10
+12
-9
+15
-26
-8
+14
+26
-3
+21
+25
-30
-2
+2
-3
-4
-25
-8
+2
-1
+7
-5
-13
0
-13
-2
+8
+23
-13
+16
-31
+1
-17
-7
+12
-2
Average
Actual
Change
-2
+5
-1
+2
-3
-3
-1
-2
-2
-2
+4
+1
0
+1
+4
0
0
+3
-4
-3
-2
0
-2
0
-1
-1
+4
+2
-3
-2
-2
+2
+2
+3
0
-1
+3
+2
-4
-1
-1
+1
0
+3
-4
-2
0
+3
-2
0
Laffer Error
(Difference
between
predicted
and actual)
7
21
4
2
3
14
6
2
2
20
27
3
3
28
6
12
9
12
22
5
16
26
1
21
26
29
6
0
0
2
23
10
0
4
7
4
16
2
9
1
9
22
13
13
27
3
17
10
14
2
Average: 11
Economic
Direction
Test
Fail
Fail
Fail
Match
Match
Fail
Fail
Match
Match
Fail
Fail
Match
Fail
Match
Match
Fail
Fail
Match
Match
Match
Fail
Fail
Match
Fail
Fail
Match
Fail
Match
Match
Match
Match
Fail
Match
Fail
Fail
Match
Fail
Fail
Match
Match
Fail
Match
Fail
Match
Match
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
27 Failed
23 Matched