Analyst Conference Q1/16
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
AGENDA
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
SCG Cement - Building Materials
SCG Chemicals
SCG Packaging
Summary
2
Revenue from Sales
Q1/16 revenue was relatively sideways y-o-y, and gained +4% q-o-q
following the seasonal effect in the cement – building materials business.
+1% y-o-y
+4% q-o-q
MB
150,000
121,765 124,795 124,275
120,000
116,710
109,276
113,818 110,898
105,622
109,998
90,000
60,000
30,000
0
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
3
EBITDA
Healthy chemicals spreads were the main drivers towards the EBITDA
growth of +17% y-o-y and +9% q-o-q.
MB
EBITDA
27,000
25,264
24,000
1,983
21,000
18,000
15,000
15,464
393
17,015
1,189
17,935
16,079
+17% y-o-y
21,628
19,080 19,931
18,415
98
284
979
1,887
23,281
15,071
15,826
Q1/14
Q2/14
6,000
14,203
16,048
Dividend from
Associates
EBITDA from
Operations
1,876
12,000
9,000
381
+9% q-o-q
18,131
18,982
18,952
Q3/15
Q4/15
21,247
+17% y-o-y
+12% q-o-q
3,000
0
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
NOTE: EBITDA = EBITDA from Operations + Dividend from Associates
Q1/16
4
Equity Income
Contributions from chemicals associates were the key factors of the
+73% y-o-y and +75% q-o-q gains.
+73% y-o-y
+75% q-o-q
Chemicals
MB
Non-Chemicals
4,000
3,898
3,647
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,247
2,900
2,000
1,500
1,725
678
2,942
1,626
565
1,117
2,226
1,495
1,456
1,348
1,107
1,000
500
1,640
2,173
445
1,061
1,047
672
533
Q2/14
Q3/14
752
747
717
878
956
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
0
Q1/14
Q4/14
5
Profit for the Period
Profitability was a healthy 13,619 MB, as a result of the solid chemicals
earnings which accounted for 67% of SCG’s total Q1/16 profitability.
+23% y-o-y
+19% q-o-q
MB
13,877
15,000
13,619
11,449
11,073
12,000
9,001
8,856
8,381
8,532
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
460
(30)
700
(2,710)
1,020
700
(3,630)
1,320
280
(170)
0
680
130
460
(270)
(420)
(1,050)
510
490
2) Inventory Gain (Loss)*
180
(80)
(130)
(2,960)
(930)
970
(2,160)
330
(300)
3) Insurance Claim
(Sub + Asso.)
450
50
150
120
0
0
0
0
90
0
0
0
0
1,490
0
0
480
0
9,000
7,846
6,000
3,000
0
-3,000
Key Non-recurring
1) FX Gain (Loss)
4) Others
*Note: SCG Chemicals (Sub + Asso.)
6
Segmented Revenue from Sales
The chemicals business accounted for 44% of Revenue in Q1/16.
Q1/15
CementBuilding Materials
40%
Q1/16
CementBuilding Materials
39%
Chemicals
44%
Chemicals
44%
Packaging
17%
Packaging
16%
MB
50,000
47,081 45,880
47,956 47,810
40,000
30,000
17,111 18,847
20,000
10,000
0
Q1/15 Q1/16
Cement Building Materials
Q1/15
Q1/16
Chemicals
Q1/15
Q1/16
Packaging
7
Segmented Profit for the Period
The growth was from the chemicals business which accounted for 67% of
the Q1/16 earnings.
Q1/15
CementBuilding
Materials
32%
Packaging
8%
Q1/16
CementBuilding
Materials
24%
Chemicals
Subsidiaries
31%
Packaging
9%
Other
16%
Chemicals
Equity Income
13%
MB
10,000
Chemicals
Equity Income
22%
9,111
Eq Inc.
8,000
6,000
4,000
Chemicals
Subsidiaries
45%
4,938
3,558
3,290
2,000
Eq Inc.
Sub.
6,169
Sub.
3,443
878
1,255
1,765
40
0
Q1/15
Q1/16
Cement - Building
Materials
Q1/15
Q1/16
Chemicals
Q1/15
Q1/16
Packaging
Q1/15
Q1/16
Others
(Mainly SCG Investment
and Corporate)
8
Segments: Export Sales and ASEAN Operation
ASEAN exports and ASEAN operations accounted for 23% in Q1/16,
compared to 22% in Q1/15.
Sales Destinations
109,276 MB
100%
80%
Export Destinations
109,998 MB
17%
16%
Export to Others
12%
11%
Export to ASEAN
22%
10%
100%
80%
23%
32,242 MB
29,570 MB
Others, 17%
Others, 20%
N. Asia, 7%
N. Asia, 7%
S. Asia, 8%
12%
S. Asia, 10%
ASEAN Operation
60%
60%
China/HK,
24%
China/HK,
22%
40%
40%
61%
61%
Domestic
20%
20%
0%
0%
Q1/15
Q1/16
% of Sales
ASEAN
44%
ASEAN
41%
Q1/15
Q1/16
29%
27%
9
Segments: Export Sale and ASEAN Operation
Sales to ASEAN (exports and localized operations) grew slightly y-o-y and
reached 24,396 MB in Q1/16 (Thai Baht term).
ASEAN Sales
MB
120,000
Export to ASEAN
100,000
ASEAN Operation
Export to ASEAN by countries
Singapore
3%
Philippines
6%
100,912 100,150
Laos
7%
85,537
80,000
74,465
61,213
60,000
40,000
Indonesia
26%
Malaysia
10%
51,750
30,936
37,496
43,923
40,566
(+1% y-o-y)
24,396
20,000
Cambodia
12%
Myanmar
20%
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
8%
9%
9%
2015
Q1/16
Vietnam
16%
Percentage of total sales from ASEAN Operations:
3%
5%
5%
7%
7%
7%
ASEAN Sales by countries
11% 12%
ASEAN Operation by countries
Myanmar
1%
Other
ASEAN
10%
Philippines
9%
Vietnam
30%
Myanmar
10%
Cambodia
13%
Other
ASEAN
2%
Philippines
12%
Cambodia
14%
Indonesia
28%
Vietnam
42%
Indonesia
29%
10
HVA’s Revenue from Sales
Consolidated:
MB
200,000
169,071
136,762
150,000
161,851
117,992
85,768
100,000
50,000
149,924
54,865
59,461
$1.2 billion
42,262 (+3% y-o-y)
$200m
7,783
38,837
2004
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
17%
19%
25%
29%
32%
34%
35%
35%
37%
2013
2014
2015
Q1/16
Cement-Building Materials
41%
42%
41%
41%
Chemicals
27%
27%
31%
32%
50%
50%
53%
55%
38%
39%
39%
43%
0
HVA as a % of
4%
Revenue from Sales
Business
Chemicals (Includes associates)
Packaging
Q1/16
39%
11
R&D Spending
SBU:
Others
3%
Packaging
9%
MB
4,000
CementBuilding
Materials
33%
3,510
3,000
Chemicals
55%
2,710
2,068
2,000
1,430
1,000
720
$1m
880
921
2009
2010
$25m
1,111
909
370
40
0
2004
2007
2008
% R&D SPENDING ON SALES:
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q1/16
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
12
AGENDA
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
SCG Cement - Building Materials
SCG Chemicals
SCG Packaging
Summary
13
EBITDA on Assets, and EBITDA Margin
EBITDA on Total Assets
Percent (%)
35
29
30
25
26
21
20
15
27
16
16
17
20
18
14
14
15
16
13
12
12
14
16
14
10
5
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16
EBITDA Margin (%):
23
27
23
22
22
23
26
22
19
16
14
EBITDA on Assets = EBITDA / Consolidated Assets
EBITDA margin
= EBITDA from Operations / Consolidated Sales
18
14
11
10
13
13
18
19
14
Net Debt
Leverage registered 1.8 times (x), on healthy EBITDA and lower net debt.
Billion Baht
Times (x)
(Net Debt)
(Leverage)
250 243.5
10
9
9.2
200
197.1
7.7
150
8
178.0 175.7
157.8
148.4
6.4
151.7
6
137.6
126.3
5.8
120.5 122.0
114.9
5.1
100
7
164.4 162.5
5
112.1
100.6 100.5 103.0 99.9
4
83.6
4.1
3.1
3
3.1
3.0
2.6
50
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.4
1.8
2.6
2
2.5
2.0
1.8
Net Debt on EBITDA
0
1
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16
Net Debt to Equity = 0.6x
15
CAPEX & Investments
Amounted to 10,357 MB in Q1/16, which was mainly from the greenfield &
expansion in the cement-building materials business.
Q1/16
SBU:
Others
3%
Maintenance
10%
Others
4%
Packaging
13%
Billion Baht
80.0
Types:
CementBuilding
Materials
Chemicals
14%
Investment
21%
Greenfield &
Expansion
44%
69%
70.0
Efficiency
Projects
22%
60.0
50.0
50.0
47.0
42.4
40.0
34.5
30.0
45.0
45.2
32.0
27.2
23.6
19.1
20.0
10.0
10.0
10.3
3.5
11.9
8.5
14.0
18.4
10.4
5.7
0.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16
- CAPEX includes debottlenecking, expansion projects, and major turnaround.
- Investments are acquisitions and purchase of shares.
16
Interest and Finance Costs
Amounted to a total of 1,550 MB which includes a FX gain of 490 MB,
while interest cost was 3.9% at the end of Q1/16.
MB
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
15,006
14,030
12,995
11,487
10,038
9,076
8,193
8,101
7,266
6,089
5,878
4,762
5,169 5,273
6,048
5,649
6,321
4,670
4,000
2,000
1,550
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/15
FX gain (loss):
NOTE: Interest & financial charges include FX gain/loss transactions.
660
940
(690)
640
(770)
490
17
Financial Highlights & Outlook
Highlights:
Net Working Capital was relatively sideways at 60,731 MB, with Inventory to Net Sales
of 42 days, from 41 days in Q4/15.
Cash & cash under management of 44,436 MB at the end of Q1/16.
Full subscription to the Apr 1/16 debenture issuance of 25 Billion Baht (4-years, 3.0%)
which replaced the 25 Billion Baht matured debenture (4-year, 4.15%).
Outlook:
Solid financial position.
FY2016 CAPEX & Investments of approximately 50,000 MB, with focus on M&A.
FY2016 depreciation of approximately 24,000 MB, up 3,000 MB y-o-y.
.
18
AGENDA
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
SCG Cement - Building Materials
SCG Chemicals
SCG Packaging
Summary
19
Revenue from Sales
Sales in Q1/16 decreased -3% y-o-y as a result of strong competition
in domestic market.
International
Domestic
-3% y-o-y
+8% q-o-q
MB
50,000
40,000
47,081
35%
45,663
43,570
42,674
45,880
36%
37%
35%
38%
65%
63%
65%
62%
64%
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
20
EBITDA and Profit for the Period
Q1/16 EBITDA dropped -5% y-o-y, mainly attributed to the lower y-o-y
domestic cement prices.
MB
10,000
EBITDA
8,000
-5% y-o-y
7,170
6,435
5,590
6,000
4,000
2,896
2,000
+32% q-o-q
3,290
-8% y-o-y
5,200
3,558
2,073
6,845
+91% q-o-q
1,723
Profit for the period
0
EBITDA Margin *
Total
International
Domestic
Domestic Structural Prod.
EBITDA Portion
International
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
15%
10%
18%
14%
11%
16%
13%
10%
14%
12%
8%
15%
15%
10%
17%
27%
24%
22%
21%
25%
24%
29%
28%
24%
24%
Note: * EBITDA margin = EBITDA from Operations, excludes divided from associates.
21
Q1/16 Domestic market insight
Cement demand grew +5% y-o-y in Q1/16, driven mainly by the growth in the
government related projects.
Ready-mixed concrete (RMC) demand grew +6% y-o-y in Q1/16, but prices
dropped y-o-y to the range of 1,650 – 1,700 baht per cubic meter.
Demand for housing products (roof ceiling & wall) in Q1/16 was flat y-o-y,
while demand for ceramic tiles dropped -5% y-o-y.
22
Domestic sales segmentation
Q1/16 domestic sales in Thailand declined -5%, due to the lower domestic
cement prices and trading of non-SCG products.
-5% y-o-y
Domestic Sales (Q1/16)
29,148 MB
(-5% y-o-y)
+10% q-o-q
MB
35,000
30,530
30,000
20%
25,000
14%
20,000
17%
15,000
10,000
28,840
21%
14%
28,183
20%
14%
26,425
19%
20%
14%
14%
17%
17%
16%
5%
5%
5%
22%
25%
25%
22%
21%
20%
21%
22%
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
5%
22%
Logistic
and
Others,
19%
29,148
15%
5%
23%
5,000
Grey
Cement,
22%
Ceramics
14%
Housing
Products,
17% Others
RMC
23%
5%
Structural
Products
0
Note: Domestic business: domestic sales from Thai operations
Structural Products: Grey cement, RMC, Others (mortar, white cement, and lightweight concrete blocks).
Housing Products: Roofing products, Board & Wood sub, and Home improvement.
Ceramics: includes Sanitary ware and Fittings.
23
Domestic cement segments
Cement demand grew +5% y-o-y in Q1/16, driven mainly by the growth in
the government related projects.
% Growth ( y-o-y )
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
2015
Q1/16
Total Market*
(100%)
-2%
+2%
-1%
+2%
0%
+5%
Commercial
-6%
+1%
-3%
0%
-2%
0%
+10%
+11%
+11%
+12%
+11%
+21%
-7%
-3%
-7%
-4%
-5%
-2%
(Approximately 20%)
Gov’t
(Approximately 30%)
Residential
(Approximately 50%)
Note: * Estimated volume market distribution
24
Domestic cement price
The average cement price in Thailand remained at the 1,800-1,850 Baht/ton level,
despite the q-o-q weakness and the noticeable change y-o-y.
Baht/Ton
Average Domestic Price of Grey Cement (Net ex-factory)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sale Mix
- Bagged Cement (%)
45
44
40
38
41
40
37
37
39
39
35
35
37
- Bulk Cement (%)
55
56
60
62
59
60
63
63
61
61
65
65
63
25
ASEAN market insight
Cement Demand Growth ( y-o-y )
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
2015
Q1/16
Cambodia
+8%
+12%
+17%
+0%
+9%
+16%
Indonesia
-1%
-2%
+4%
+6%
+2%
+3%
Myanmar
+17%
+19%
+7%
+2%
+11%
+6%
Vietnam
-1%
+11%
+6%
+14%
+8%
+9%*
Note: Indonesia’s cement demand is based on the data from Indonesian cement association (ASI).
* Vietnam’s cement demand in Q1/16 included only Jan- Feb.
26
International sales segmentation
Q1/16 International sales grew +1% y-o-y, mainly due to the ramp-up of
the cement operations in Cambodia and Indonesia.
+1% y-o-y
MB
18,000
15,000
16,551
16,823
15,387
30%
28%
29%
Trading
31%
31%
31%
30%
26%
25%
28%
Exports
38%
39%
44%
47%
43%
ASEAN
Operations
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
12,000
9,000
+3% q-o-q
16,731
16,249
6,000
3,000
0
Q1/2016 ASEAN Operations (Products)
Building
Product
11%
Others
3%
Philippines
10%
Ceramic
41%
Grey
Cement
23%
RMC &
Precast
22%
Q1/2016 ASEAN Operations (Country)
Myanmar
2%
Cambodia
23%
Indonesia
38%
Vietnam
27%
Note: International business = ASEAN Operations, exports from Thailand, and Trading business
Housing - Roofing products, Board & Wood sub, and Home improvement.
Ceramics - includes Sanitary ware and Fittings.
Trading - are mainly trading of non-SCG products
27
Ceramic Tiles
Sales volume was flat y-o-y , following weakness in the Thai market.
Sales volume & prices for all ASEAN subsidiaries
M sqm.
Baht/sqm.
100
160
90
Average Price
140
Volume change
80
70
60
50
Flat y-o-y
Sales volume
53
49
+1% q-o-q
51
51
49
52
49
48
49
40
120
100
80
60
30
40
20
10
20
0
0
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
28
Cement exports
Exports volume register 1.4 MT in Q1/16, while export prices dropped
$4/ton y-o-y as a result of the change in product mix.
Sales volume and Average prices (FOB)
Clinker Export
MT
4.0
61
62
Cement Export
Average FOB Prices
$/Ton
70
65
58
57
3.0
60
50
40
2.0
1.4
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.2
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.0
THB/USD
0.3
0.2
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
32.65
33.27
35.25
Note: FOB price does not include handling charges and discount.
1.0
30
20
1.0
0.7
10
0.3
0.4
Q4/15
Q1/16
35.84
0
35.67
29
Outlook
Outlook:
Domestic cement demand in FY2016 is expected to grow +3% to +5% y-o-y,
depending on the progress of the government’s infrastructure projects and the
severity of the ongoing drought conditions. Domestic pricing pressure is expected to
continue in light of the strong competition.
Domestic demand of housing products and ceramic tiles are projected to remain
negative in FY2016.
In general, ASEAN (ex-Thailand) demand for cement and building materials products
are expected to see continued positive growth.
Plants startup :
Myanmar cement plant : commercial operation is expected in Q3/16.
30
AGENDA
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
SCG Cement - Building Materials
SCG Chemicals
SCG Packaging
Summary
31
Q1/16 Market Situation
Q1/16
q-o-q change
$34/bbl
-$10/bbl (-23%)
Naphtha
$344/ton
-$101/ton (-23%)
Ethylene
$1,012/ton
-$21/ton (-2%)
$649/ton
+$62/ton (+11%)
$1,103/ton
-$50/ton (-4%)
Crude (Brent)
Propylene
HDPE
Notes
Oil market remained oversupplied but started to recover from the
bottom
Naphtha continued to drop from low demand due to cracker turnaround
Marginally declined despite a sharp fall in crude owing to firm
downstream demand
Tighter regional supply from unplanned shutdown of on-purposed units
Dropped only slightly as healthy demand supported the price
PP
$934/ton
-$64/ton (-6%)
HDPE-Naphtha
$759/ton
+$51/ton (+7%)
PP-Naphtha
$589/ton
+$35/ton (+6%)
EDC
$234/ton
+$18/ton (+8%)
Price was in uptrend due to tight supply
PVC
$727/ton
-$36/ton (-5%)
Seasonal demand still supported PVC despite low oil price
PVC-EDC/C2
$302/ton
-$47/ton (-13%)
Spread narrowed from tight EDC and decline in PVC prices
MMA-Naphtha
$955/ton
-$70/ton (-7%)
Oversupply in China
BD-Naphtha
$546/ton
+$262/ton (+92%)
PTA-PX
$66/ton
+$2/ton (+3%)
Gaps widened owing to firm demand
Tight supply from the on-going regional plants unplanned shutdown
New capacity offset by loss of existing capacity due to technical
problem
32
HDPE – Naphtha Price Gaps
HDPE spread widened to $759/ton q-o-q due to firm downstream demand
$/ton
Q1/16 HDPE-N
1,800
`
`
+ 9% y-o-y
+ 7% q-o-q
1,500
1,200
HDPE
Ethylene
900
HDPE-N
Gap
600
Naphtha
300
0
HDPE-Naphtha
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
Q2/16
To date
620
618
691
802
694
812
774
708
759
819
682
Spread ($/ton)
747
HDPE-C2
113
121
125
234
161
(11)
264
120
91
53
C2-Naphtha
507
496
565
568
532
823
510
588
668
766
Note: Prices refer to SEA regional prices
33
PP – Naphtha Price Gaps
PP spread widened to $589/ton q-o-q from healthy demand.
Q1/16 PP-N
$/ton
1,800
- 11% y-o-y
`
1,500
1,200
+ 6% q-o-q
PP
900
Propylene
PP-N Gap
600
Naphtha
300
0
PP-Naphtha
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
626
632
716
819
664
785
672
554
589
Q2/16
To date
741
397
275
412
142
285
305
381
360
Spread ($/ton)
PP-C3
C3-Naphtha
698
192
434
304
328
Note: Prices refer to SEA regional prices
669
328
388
433
385
325
339
408
376
34
PVC
PVC spread narrowed down to $302/ton as EDC edged up slightly from tight
supply and as PVC marginally declined amid low oil price.
Q1/16 PVC-EDC/C2
- 14% y-o-y
`
1,800
`
$/ton
- 13% q-o-q
1,500
1,200
Ethylene
900
PVC
600
PVC-EDC/C2
300
EDC
0
PVC-EDC/C2
Spread ($/ton)
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
Q2/16
to date
336
307
336
348
350
283
339
349
302
330
332
Note: Prices refer to FE regional prices
324
35
Benzene & Toluene
BZ-Naphtha: Benzene price rose with continuing strong SM price.
TL-Naphtha: Gap improved from strong Chinese import demand to restock low inventory.
Q1/16 Benzene-N
$/ton
1,800
`
`
1,500
Q1/16 Toluene-N
+ 32% y-o-y
`
+ 64% y-o-y
+ 45% q-o-q
`
+ 23% q-o-q
1,200
900
Toluene
Benzene
600
Naphtha
300
0
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
394
299
161
228
196
146
212
Q2/16
to date
239
BZ-Naphtha
355
323
TL-Naphtha
193
153
258
191
159
235
203
212
260
264
BZ-Spread
343
183
TL Spread
199
202
Note: Prices refer to SEA regional prices
36
Price Gaps of Associates
MMA-Naphtha: Spread declined on the back of oversupply in China.
PTA-PX: New capacity offset by loss of existing capacity due to technical problem.
BD-Naphtha: Tight supply from regional plants unplanned shutdown.
MMA-Naphtha $/ton, BD-Naphtha $/ton
PTA-PX $/ton
1,800
300
MMA-Naphtha
1,500
250
1,200
200
900
150
BD-Naphtha
600
100
300
50
PTA-PX
0
MMA-N
PTA-PX
BD-N
0
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
1,120
68
452
1,131
63
329
1,240
70
556
1,558
75
410
1,499
46
238
1,291
92
581
1,222
57
527
1,025
64
284
955
66
546
Note: BD and MMA prices refer to SEA regional prices, PTA prices refer to Asian regional prices
Q2/16
to date
936
88
628
37
Polyolefin Sales Volume
Q1/16 sales volume increased 4% q-o-q with resilient market demand,
especially in Thailand.
- 2% y-o-y
Ton
+ 4% q-o-q
700,000
PP
PE
600,000
500,000
500,000
500,000
438,000
463,000
482,000 473,000 491,000
473,000
442,000
447,000
190,000
217,000
190,000
400,000
180,000
178,000
173,000
491,000
208,000
193,000
184,000
217,000
180,000
300,000
310,000
200,000
260,000
283,000
274,000
280,000
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
274,000
310,000
262,000
274,000
289,000
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
274,000
Q1/16
100,000
0
Q1/14
Q1/15
Q1/15
Q1/16
38
PVC Sales Volume
Q1/16 sales volume grew 7% q-o-q on the back of seasonal demand and
15% y-o-y due to increased VCM capacity from debottlenecking in Q2/15.
Ton
300,000
+ 15% y-o-y
+ 7% q-o-q
ASEAN Operations
Domestic Operations
250,000
203,000
203,000
200,000
181,000
176,000
161,000
150,000
29%
31%
177,000 179,000
188,000 189,000
177,000
169,000
30%
32%
35%
35%
30%
32%
34%
36%
70%
68%
66%
64%
65%
70%
65%
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
Q1/15
Q1/16
30%
100,000
71%
69%
70%
68%
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
50,000
0
Note: *ASEAN Operations = Sales volume from PVC operations in Vietnam and Indonesia
39
Revenue from Sales
Q1/16 revenue slightly improved at 47,810 MB q-o-q due to higher sales
volume.
MB
0% y-o-y
80,000
1% q-o-q
64,958 64,337
60,826
57,997
60,000
53,636
Flat
51,591
47,956
47,250 47,810
47,956
47,810
Q4/15
Q1/15
Q1/16
40,000
20,000
0
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q1/16
Note: * ASEAN operations = Sales revenue from PVC operations in Vietnam and Indonesia
40
EBITDA
Q1/16 EBITDA slightly increased q-o-q to 11,652 MB on enhanced spreads
+ 74% y-o-y
Dividend
MB
+ 9% q-o-q
EBITDA from Operations
16,000
14,621
14,000
1,452
10,903
12,000
42
10,000
7,608
8,000
6,000
4,987
153
5,641
1,863
10,665
11,652
11,652
131
131
744
7,906
6,711
6,711
1,755
111
111
13,169
10,861
970
11,521
9,921
4,000
2,000
5,745
6,151
6,600
11,521
6,600
4,834
4,671
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
8%
7%
9%
11%
14%
25%
21%
21%
0
EBITDA
Margin
Note: EBITDA = EBITDA from Operations + Dividend from Associated Companies
Q1/16
24%
Q1/15
Q1/16
14%
24%
41
Profit for the Period
Profit increased to 9,111 MB mainly due to improved equity income from associated
companies
+ 85% y-o-y
MB
12,000
+ 21% q-o-q
Equity Income
Subsidiaries
10,000
9,182
8,000
2,900
4,188
4,000
2,000
7,530
6,838
1,107
2,480
2,259
678
445
Q1/14
Q2/14
3,534
2,942
2,942
1,348
1,456
6,000
9,111
9,111
4,938
4,938
1,495
1,495
565
0
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
Q1/15
Q1/16
NCI
(330)
(240)
(Non controlling interest)
(650)
(740)
(680)
(3,600)
(1,540)
(1,140)
(2,820)
(680)
(2,820)
Inventory
Gain (Loss)**
(130)
(2,960)
(930)
970
(2,160)
330
(300)
(930)
(300)
180
(80)
*Sub/Asso : 67%/33%
**Note: SCG Chemicals (Sub + Asso)
42
Outlook
Crude – gradually recovers due to easing oversupply situation
Naphtha – naphtha following crude price amid cracker turnaround season
Polyolefin – cost push from continued rising feedstock prices from cracker turnaround
season
PVC – strong demand from healthy season for agriculture and construction
Company highlight:
Chandra Asri (30%): ramping up, following the debottleneck in late-2015
Longson Petrochemical (46%): in progress of negotiating with potential partners
Rayong Olefins (consolidated): 40-day cracker shutdown for scheduled maintenance in
Q4/16
Thai Plastic and Chemicals (consolidated): 23-day VCM plant shutdown for scheduled
maintenance in Q2/16
43
AGENDA
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
SCG Cement - Building Materials
SCG Chemicals
SCG Packaging
Summary
44
Packaging Paper
Packaging paper prices maintained due to stable-to-soft demand in the region while
AOCC prices dropped due to low demand in China during Chinese New Year.
$/Ton
600
Q1 Apr/16
Packaging Paper
480
470
460
450
450
180
170
Q4/15
Q1/16
450
300
445-455
Recovered Paper (AOCC)
180
190
Q1/15
Q2/15
190
165-175
150
0
Q1/14
Q2/14
Note: regional prices
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q3/15
45
Packaging Paper
Total sales volume increased 4% q-o-q and 11% y-o-y mainly from higher
domestic sales.
ASEAN Operations*
’000 tons
Thailand Export
+11% y-o-y
Thailand Domestic
700
+ 4% q-o-q
600
528
500
21%
539
22%
400
20%
21%
552
22%
21%
561
22%
21%
700
584
584
600
528
21%
500
19%
21%
21%
19%
400
20%
300
300 (65%)
+12% y-o-y
200
59%
57%
57%
57%
60%
200
59%
+ 9% q-o-q
100
100
0
0
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Note: *Sales Volume from Philippines and Vietnam
Q1/16
(67%)
Q1/15
60%
Q1/16
46
Fibrous (Printing & Writing Paper)
Printing & Writing paper prices declined from poor demand. Short fiber pulp prices
dropped sharply due to oversupply and low demand.
$/Ton
Q1
Apr/16
1,000
P&W Paper
795
800
645
785
660
Long Fiber
600
595
Short Fiber
630
755
645
735
725
715-725
580
575-585
620
630
595
485-495
525
400
200
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
Note: regional prices
47
Fibrous (Printing & Writing Paper)
Total sales volume increased 6% q-o-q owing to improved domestic demand and
higher export sales, but flat y-o-y.
Export
’000 tons
150
+ 6% q-o-q
123
25%
100
50
Flat y-o-y
Domestic
75%
119
118
27%
27%
73%
73%
116
Flat
123
123
123
28%
25%
28%
75%
72%
Q1/15
Q1/16
100
28%
72%
150
72%
- 3% y-o-y
50
+ 6% q-o-q
0
0
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
48
Revenue from Sales
Revenue from Sales in Q1/16 increased 2% q-o-q and 10% y-o-y mainly from higher
domestic sales in Packaging chain.
+10% y-o-y
+2% q-o-q
Fibrous Chain
MB
Packaging Chain
20,000
18,217
18,000
17,111
14,000
17,111
17,172
16,000
4,721
18,407
18,847
18,847
4,743
4,743
4,876
4,762
13,645
14,104
4,721
4,551
Flat
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
12,390
12,621
13,341
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q4/15
Q1/16
72%
73%
73%
74%
75%
14,104
12,390
4,000
2,000
0
Packaging
as percent
of total
Q1/15
72%
Q1/16
75%
49
EBITDA and Profit for the Period
Improved performance in Q1/16 both q-o-q and y-o-y mainly due to higher sales
volume and cost improvement.
+17% y-o-y
MB
3,500
EBITDA (MB)
+ 3% q-o-q
EBITDA
3,046
3,143
3,143
2,693
3,000
2,693
2,512
2,580
2,500
Gain from sale
of TBSP shares
2,000
Q1/16
+43% y-o-y
+ 7% q-o-q
1,500
1,000
Q1/15
Profit for the period
878
764
1,176
1,255
Profit for the period (MB)
1,255
645
878
500
0
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Total
16%
15%
Fibrous
13%
Packaging
17%
EBITDA
Margin
Q4/15
Q1/16
14%
17%*
17%
11%
12%
12%
14%
16%
15%
15%
18%
*Remark : Include gain from sale of TBSP shares.
Q1/15
Q1/16
16%
17%
EBITDA Margin
50
Outlook
Outlook:
Demand for packaging in Thailand expects to soften after peak period in Q1 and long
holiday in Q2, while regional demand expects to remain stable.
Regional packaging paper prices expect to maintain due to stable demand.
Recovered paper prices expect to be flat as no new factor to push up prices.
Short-fiber pulp prices expect to drop further due to competition, although long fiber
prices expect to maintain.
51
Summary
Thank You
For further details, please contact [email protected]
52