The Compound Semiconductor Industry; How Did It
Get Here and Where Is It Going?
Eric Higham
Strategy Analytics
Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
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Advanced Semiconductor Applications (ASA) Service
Tracking Semiconductor Technology to End Applications
Applications
• Consumer Electronics
• Cellular handsets
• Wi-Fi
• Satellite & CATV
Components
• Solid-state lighting
• Lasers
• Networks
Technologies
GaAs
Silicon
GaN
InP
SiC
• Wireless base stations &
backhaul
SiGe
“Other”
• Automotive Electronics
• Sensing technologies
• Aerospace & Defense
• Radar, EW, Communications
• High Power Electronics
• Medical Electronics
• Instrumentation
• Fiber transport
• Broadband (wired & wireless)
• VSAT
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Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics
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What IS a Compound Semiconductor?
Source: Intech
Source: Sumitomo Electric Industries
Source: Wikipedia
Source: CompoundSemiconductor.net
• Simply put…semiconductors with two or more elements
‒ “III-V” is a common term, but not all inclusive
• Combination of elements is done to achieve a performance advantage
‒ Frequency, power, efficiency, etc.
• Lack the volume/low cost manufacturing ecosystem of silicon
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Compound Semiconductor Market Drivers
• Convergence of voice, video and data networks enables
the explosive growth in data traffic
• Data traffic growth drives the entire market
• CAAGR of mobile data growth is ~70% since 2009!
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Compound Semiconductor Demand:
• Supports and enables:
‒ Evolution of wireless, consumer and industrial devices
‒ Next generation wired and wireless networks
‒ Automotive advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)
‒ Defense transition to network-centric battlefield philosophies
‒ Solid-state lighting
‒ High power electronics
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The Compound Semiconductor Device Market
Source: Strategy Analytics
• LED market is the largest
‒ ~60% of the market revenue
• HPE is the fastest growing
‒ Silicon is the incumbent
• RF growth will be slow
‒ ~25% of the market in 2020
• Total compound semi market is estimated at ~$24B
‒ Anticipated to grow to ~$44B in 2020
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Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics
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GaN Advantages
Material Properties
Saturation velocity (cm/s)
Breakdown E-field (MV/cm)
e- mobility (cm2/Vs)
Eg bandgap (eV)
Ft (GHz) FET
Power density (W/mm)
Thermal conductivity (W/cm/K)
Si
107
1x
0.3
1350
1.1
20
0.2
1.5
GaAs
107
0.8 x
0.4
8000
1.4
150
0.5
0.5
GaN
2.5 x 107
3.0
1500
3.4
150
>30
Superior frequency, efficiency,
voltage breakdown, speed,
temperature, power density,
current density
~2.0
Source: Strategy Analytics
• Device characteristics provide a host of advantages:
• Higher efficiency means less DC power, less need for cooling
• Higher frequency operation encompasses more applications
• Temperature performance enables electronics closer to the antenna
• Higher power density means higher power output performance
• Or the same power output…but with fewer components
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Total RF GaN Device Revenue
Source: Strategy Analytics
• Commercial market gaining traction
‒ Dominated by infrastructure
• Defense nurtured the technology
‒ DARPA funding and programs
• GaN revenue jump in 2014 is driven by China LTE infrastructure deployments
• Total revenue CAAGR of ~60% from 2007 - 2015
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2015 RF GaN Device Revenue Segmentation
• Infrastructure is largest segment
• Anticipating strong defense growth
‒ Radar, comms, EW
Source: Strategy Analytics
• Commercial RF GaN applications currently accounts for ~60% of revenue
‒ Defense growth will reduce this gap
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Historical GaAs Device Revenue
• 11% CAAGR since 2004
• Exceeded $7B for the first time
‒ >$8B including foundry
• DoD funding in the 1990s changed the applications
• Wireless Revolution changed the trajectory!
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2014 GaAs Device Revenue Segmentation
Source: Strategy Analytics
• Cellular terminals drive revenue
‒ Just about exclusively PAs!
• Wireless segment dominates the GaAs device market
‒ Segment accounts for ~80% of total revenue
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Conclusions (Past & Present)
• Government funding developed the GaAs ecosystem
‒ Performance is the fuel
‒ Commercial applications are the growth engine for the market
• Growth of GaAs drove the growth of other compound semi technologies
‒ InP, SiC, SiGe, GaN all offer performance advantages
‒ Compound semi component industry has grown to ~$24B
• Silicon is the biggest competitive technology
‒ Under fire as the incumbent technology in the HPE market
‒ Capturing share in the RF and LED segments
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Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics
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Storm Clouds on the Horizon?
Source: Strategy Analytics
• Handset growth is slowing
‒ ~3% CAAGR to reach ~2.1B in 2020
• Smartphone growth is slowing
‒ ~7% CAAGR 2014 – 2020
‒ ~43% CAAGR 2008 – 2014!
• This is notable because it’s actually smartphone PAs that drive the GaAs industry!
Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics
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Increasing Complexity in Smartphones
• Switches
Source: Strategy Analytics
‒ 73 switch throws
‒ 10 discretes + 3 in modules
• Amplifiers
‒ 16 power amplifier paths
‒ 2 LNAs
• Filters
‒ 7 duplexers
‒ 26 BPF
• Bands
‒ Quad-EDGE
‒ W-CDMA: B1, B2, B3, B4, B5, B8
• Sub-bands: 9, 10, 18, 19, 20, 26
‒ TD-SCDMA: B34, B39
‒ TD-LTE: B38, B39, B40, B41
‒ FD-LTE: B3, B7, B8
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The 5G Vision
Source: Nokia
• “Unlimited access to information and the ability to share data
anywhere, anytime by anyone and anything”
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The Challenge
Source: ITU Recommendation ITU-R M.2083-0, September 2015
Qualcomm/Heavyreading Webinar
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Network Architecture Vision
• Architectural Pillars
Source: Ericsson
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
MIMO
Beamforming
Wi-Fi
“Ultra-dense” deployments
Vehicle-to-vehicle
M2M (IoT)
Device-to-device
Cooperative devices
Multi-hop communication
• Many (compound) semiconductor opportunities that revolve around:
‒ Better performance
‒ Lower cost
‒ Higher reliability
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Transport Network Vision
•
•
•
•
Optical transport: 100 Tbps
E-band backhaul: 80 Gbps
Macrocell: 50 Gbps
Small Cells: 100 Gbps
3.bp.blogspot.com
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RF GaN Market Share Forecast
Source: Strategy Analytics
• Infrastructure remains the largest
segment
• Fast growth propels defense
applications to nearly 50% of the
market in 2020
• ~$690M in 2020
• Commercial RF GaN applications, particularly infrastructure are growing
‒ Infrastructure revenue profile will be a bit uneven
Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics
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2014 GaAs Device Market Share Forecast
Source: Strategy Analytics
• Wireless will continue to be ~80%
• Cellular terminals will be 50-55% of
total
• Anticipate slow growth for the GaAs device market
• Silicon will provide a “headwind”
Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics
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Agenda
• (Brief) Introduction
‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area
• Investigate the Compound Semi Market
‒ Definition and setting the stage
• Focus on the RF Market
‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers
• The Future
‒ Trends and forecasts
• Conclusions
Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics
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Conclusions (Future)
• The overall compound semiconductor market is poised for good growth
‒ ~13% CAAGR will just about double revenue by 2020
• The growth trajectories will not be the same for all segments
‒ LED segment will remain the largest
• GaN-on-silicon will begin making inroads
‒ HPE segment will see the fastest growth for compound semis
• GaN and SiC will offer greatly improved performance capabilities
‒ RF segment will be a bit uneven
• Increasing RF content will offset slowing smartphone growth
• 5G is the wildcard…it will be a growth driver for the semiconductor industry
• But…will this benefit silicon or a compound semiconductor technology??
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Thank You!
Eric Higham
Strategy Analytics
www.strategyanalytics.com
[email protected]
617-614-0721
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