ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Wednesday, March 9th 8.00am Conference Registration 9.00am – 10.30am Conference Opening Ceremony 10.30am – 10.45am Coffee Break 11.00am – 1.00pm Session 1 M. O. Oluwayemi New Subclass of Univalent Analytic Functions with Fixed Finitely many Coefficients Defined by a Generalised Salagean Differential Operator involving Modified Sigmoid Function S. A. Yusuff and I. A. Osinuga Construction of Broyden-Like Method for Nonlinear Equations I. O. Olofin and I. A. Osinuga On Broyden – Conjugate Gradient Methods for Solving Unconstrained Optimization Problem Aliyu Sisa Aminu Analysis of Darlington Pair in Distributed Amplifier Circuit R. O. Jimoh, Y. M. Aiyesimi, M. Jiya and G. A. Bolarin Approximate Solution of a Contaminant Flow in a Semi-Infinite Medium via the Weighted Residual Method Y.O. Afolabi Classes of Analytic Functions Based on a Fractional Differential Operator 1.00am – 2 .00pm Lunch Break 2.00pm – 2.50pm First Plenary Session Aderemi Adewumi 3.00–6.00pm Session 2 Rasaq Oyeyemi Olayiwola Modelling and Analytical Simulation of a Smouldering Carbonaceous Rod Kanayo Stella Eke Some Fixed Point Results for Contraction Mappings on E-uniform Spaces Chinedu M. Peter and Dasharath Singh Arithmetic Operations in Deterministic P System Based on the Weak Rule Priority Chinedu Peter Arithmetic Operations in Deterministic P Systems Based on the Weak Rule Priority O. D. Ogwumu and M. O Ibrahim Solution and Application of Biological Pest Control Models in Agriculture 1|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria M.A.Ahmadu, E.N.Chifu and B.I.Tijjani Schwarzschild’s Radius of Some Planets in the Solar System using Newtonian Expression for Escape Velocity Abdulrahman Ndanusa and Aliyu Umar Mustapha Third and Fourth Order Trigonometrically Fitted Improved Runge – Kutta Methods A. S. Odesola and I.O. Abiala On Mathematical Structural Element Optimization using Large Dimensional Design Variables U. Mohammed, R. B. Adeniyi, B. M. Yisa and A. I. Ma’ali A Class of Block Hybrid Linear Multi-Step Method for the Solution of Third Order Boundary Value Problem Thursday, March 10th 9.00am – 9.50am Second Plenary Session Chris Thron On-going Research in Applied Computational Mathematics 10.10am – 1.10pm Session 3 Godwin Amechi Okeke Round-Off Stability in Modular Function Spaces J. Sunday, Y. Skwame and A. O. Adesanya Two-Step Laguerre Polynomial Hybrid Block Method for the Solution of Real-Life Modeled FirstOrder Differential Equations M. O. Oluwayemi and O. A. Fadipe-Joseph Sigmoid Function in Univalent Functions Theory and Applications B. A. Sawyerr, E. P. Fasina and S. E. Amadi Discrete Enhanced Differential Evolution (DEDE) for Solving Combinatorial Optimization Problems N. Nyor, K. Rauf and J. O. Omolehin Linear Programming Relaxation and Duality of Airline Crew Scheduling Kamiludeen Rotimi Maia-type Common Coupled Fixed Point Theorem in Cone Metric Spaces O.J. Fenuga and F.I. Akinwale Effects of Fluid Temperature, Shear Stress and Heat Transfer on a Wall Driven Steady Flow in a Porous Plate Ayodeji Sunday Afolabi On the Optimal Control Problems Constrained by Delay Differential Equation using Penalty Function with B-Spline 2|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria S. E Olowo, Abdulhadi Aminu and I. M. Sulaiman An Improved Version of Conjugate Gradient Coefficient with Global Convergence Properties for Unconstrained Optimization 1.00am – 2 .00pm 2.00–6.00pm Lunch Break Session 4 S.A Okunuga and R.I. Abdulganiy 𝐿0 Stable Trigonometrically Fitted Block Backward Differentiation Formula of Adams Type for Autonomous Oscillatory Problems Olalekan Taofeek Wahab and Kamilu Rauf On a Faster Hybrid Kirk-Multistep Schemes for Contractive-Type Operators S. A. Somma, N. I. Akinwande, P. Gana, S. Abdulrahaman, T. T. Ashezua and Eguda, F. Y Stability Analysis for a Model of Measles Incorporating Maternally-Derived-Immunity E. A. Bakare and E. B. Are Optimal Control Analysis of the Effect of Multiple Control Strategies on Cholera Disease Transmission Dynamics in the Presence of Asymptotic Transmission Ajibade Kehinde James and Adetunji Adeniyan Mixed Convective Flow of a Viscous and Ohmic Dissipating Reactive Hydromagnetic Fluid Past a Vertical Stretching Sheet Y. Raji-Lawal Hanat and T. Adewale Adio Comparism of Similarity Measure Methods, for the Evolvement of Modified Similarity Measure for Detection of Character Misposition and Transposition within a String A.O. Bello, O. M. Adetutu and F.A Oguntolu The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Longitudinal Data of Household Income in the Presence of Outlier Densities O. M. Adetutu, Nyor Ngutor and A.O. Bello Application of System of Linear Equations to a 3-Arm Roundabout Network Flows S. A. Amoo Effect of Chemical Reaction on Heat and Mass Transfer Embedded in a Porous Medium over an Exponentially Porous Stretching Surface C. R. Chikwendu and C. R. Emenonye A Hybrid Dynamic Programming Technique for Optimizing Stock Allocation using Chebyshev Polynomial Approximation Y.O. Aderinto and O.M. Bamigbola Optimal Control of Air Pollution via Electric Power Generating System Model Abdulwahab Giwa and Saidat Olanipekun Giwa Mathematical Modelling, Simulation and Optimization of a Reactive Distillation Process using Matrix Laboratory 3|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Odina Gbeminiyi and Rotimi K. Ogundeji Determining the Teaching Efficiency of University Lecturers using Data Envelopment Analysis Friday, March 11th 9.00am – 2.00pm Session 5 Obuandike Georgina N., Audu Isah and John Alhasan Optimized Naïve Bayesian Algorithm for Efficient Performance H. K. Oduwole, I. K. Joseph and K. S. Ikani Modeling Rumour Propagation with Conditional Latent Period in a Varying Population M. O. Oluwayemi and O. A. Fadipe-Joseph Subclasses of Univalent Functions Based Salagean Differential Operator Involving Modified Sigmoid Function with Finitely Many Fixed Coefficients Akintola Kolawole Designing of a Cost Effective Fibre Optic Network Backbone using Genetic Algorithm R. K. Ogundeji, R. O. Okafor and I. A. Adeleke Application of Optimization Techniques to the Operations M. O. Oyesanya and E.N Unaegbu The Effect of Rain on Earth-Space Radiowave Propagation Studies of Tropical Satellite Communication in Nigeria M.O Akintunde, G. A. Olalude and I. A. Adeleke Forecasting the Volatility of Nigerian Inflation Rates using Artificial Neural Networks and ARIMA Models Peter O. Oluseyi, Babatunde A. Sawyerr and Tobi E. Shomefun Optimization of Maintenance Strategy in Power Transmission System using Differential Evolution Algorithm Uyikumhe Damisa and Peter Olabisi Oluseyi A Novel Economic Dispatch Model for Gas Maximization In Thermal Plants B. A. Sawyerr, E. P. Fasina and O. O. Fagbohun Solving Permutation-Based Combinatorial Optimization Problems using Simulated Annealing Ebun P. Fasina, Babatunde A. Sawyerr and Oluwatobi A. Adetunji The Fully-Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Ebun P. Fasina, Chika P. Ojiako and Ozioma A. Paul The Range-Delimited Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Ebun P. Fasina, Babatunde A. Sawyerr and Shuaibu B. Alkassim The Foraging Bees Optimization Algorithm Ebun P. Fasina, Babatunde A. Sawyerr and Oluwatoni P. Olatunji The Foraging Ants Optimization Algorithm 4|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Samuel Adewale Aderoju and Emmanuel Teju Jolayemi Poisson-Mixed Models for Count Data; An Application to Risk Analysis (Accident Data in Nigeria) Johndamascene C. Imoh and A.N.P Uchegbulem A Statistical Analysis of Reported Cases of Examination Malpractice in Nigeria Olanrewaju Adeniyi Damilola An Analytic Re-Examination of Foreign Trade Management and Economic Growth in Nigeria using Factor Analysis Approach A. Adeniyan and S. S. Okoya Unsteady MHD Boundary-Layer Slip-Flow and Mass Transfer over a Convectively Heated Stretching Cylinder Immersed in Porous Medium with Waste Discharge Concentration Oladipupo Ajeyalemi An Application of Conjoint Analysis to Passenger Preference Assessment within the Nigerian Domestic Airline Industry 5|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria New Subclass of Univalent Analytic Functions with Fixed Finitely many Coefficients Defined by a Generalised Salagean Differential Operator involving Modified Sigmoid Function M. O. Oluwayemi [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Adeniran Ogunsanya College of Education, Otto/Ijanikin, P.M.B. 2007, Ijanikin, Lagos, Nigeria The author uses certain holomorphic univalent function involving modified sigmoid function with a generalised Salagean operator to establish a new subclass of univalent functions. The various results investigated in this paper include coefficient estimates, extreme points and radii properties. Keywords: Modified Sigmoid Function, Univalent Functions, Coefficient Estimates, Radii Construction of Broyden-Like Method for Nonlinear Equations S. A. Yusuff I. A. Osinuga Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Agriculture, P.M.B. 2240, Abeokuta. In this work, we propose a new iterative method based on the quasi-newton approach for solving systems of nonlinear equations using the weighted combination of midpoint and trapezoidal rules. Our goal is to enhance the efficiency of the well-known Broyden method by reducing the number of iterations it takes to reach a solution. Local convergence analysis and computational results showing the relative efficiency of the proposed method are given. Keywords: Broyden method, predictor-corrector, nonlinear systems, convergence, numerical examples 6|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria On Broyden – Conjugate Gradient Methods for Solving Unconstrained Optimization Problem I. O. Olofin I. A. Osinuga Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun State. The conjugate gradient method plays an important role in solving large – scaled optimization problems and quasi – Newton method is known as the most efficient method in solving unconstrained optimization problem. Previous researchers proposed hybrid search direction that combines the search direction between conjugate gradient methods and quasi – Newton method and yielded a new search direction of the hybrid method known as the BFGS – CG method. In this paper, we shall extend the work of previous researchers by investigating the BFGS – CG method with coefficients of CG such as Fletcher – Reeves, Hestenes – Stiefel, Polak – Riebere, Dai and Yuan, and Liu and Storey. The BFGS – CG methods obtained shows significant improvement in the total number of iterations and CPU time required to solve large scale unconstrained optimization problems. Keywords: Conjugate Gradient Method, Unconstrained Optimization Problem. Analysis of Darlington Pair in Distributed Amplifier Circuit Aliyu Sisa Aminu [email protected] Gombe State University This paper presents the analysis of the Darlington pair as an element in a distributed amplifier (DA) configuration. The Darlington pair circuit with the input and output inductor of the DA transmission line are included in the analysis of the circuit, this is also simulated. The inherent problem of poor performance is reduced by the inductors. The overall result shows that high power gain at high frequency is achievable with Darlington pair as the stage element of a given DA. Keywords: Darlington Pair, Distributed Amplifier. 7|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Approximate Solution of a Contaminant Flow in a SemiInfinite Medium via the Weighted Residual Method R. O. Jimoh Y. M. Aiyesimi M. Jiya [email protected] Department of Mathematics/ Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria G. A. Bolarin In this paper, an approximate analytical solution of two-dimensional contaminant flow problem with non-zero initial concentration is provided. The equation is described by advection, dispersion, adsorption, first order decay and zero-order source. We assume that the adsorption term is modeled by Freudlich isotherm. We provide an approximation of this equation using Bubnov-Galerkin method and solve the resulting system of initial value problem analytically. The results obtained are presented in graphical form to show the effect of change in the parameters on the concentration of the contaminants. Findings from this research show that the contaminant concentration decreases with increase in the distance from the origin and increases with increase in the zero-order source coefficient. Keywords: Advection, Dispersion, Adsorption, Contaminant, Galerkin Weighted Residuals Classes of Analytic Functions Based on a Fractional Differential Operator Y.O. Afolabi [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Sokoto State University, P.M.B. 2134, Sokoto, Nigeria In this work, with the aid of hadamard product we make use of a linear multiplier fractional differential and integral operators to define new classes of analytic functions in the unit disk, |z| < 1. Coefficient properties concerning these classes were derived, results in this work is similar to those obtained earlier in some literatures. Keywords: Analytic function, fractional differential operator, hadamard product or convolution. 8|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Modelling and Analytical Simulation of a Smouldering Carbonaceous Rod Rasaq Oyeyemi Olayiwola [email protected] Nigeria Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria Modelling of pyrolysis and combustion in a smouldering fuel bed requires the solution of flow, heat and mass transfer through porous media. This paper presents an analytical method to describe the smouldering of a porous carbonaceous rod. We assume there is no perfect contact between gas and solid phases so that no local thermal equilibrium exist between the phases. Also, we assume that the initial temperatures increases lengthwise. The existence and uniqueness of solution was examined by actual solution method. The coupled non-linear partial differential equations describing the phenomenon have been decoupled using parameter-expanding method and solved analytically using Eigen function expansion technique. It is discovered from the results obtained that Frank-Kamenetskii number, Scaled thermal conductivity of gas and solid phases and Species diffusion coefficient play a significant role in the slow burning process associated with porous carbonaceous rod. Keywords: Modelling and Simulation, Carbonaceous rod, Partial Differential Equations. Some Fixed Point Results for Contraction Mappings on E-uniform Spaces Kanayo Stella Eke We introduce the notion of E-uniform spaces and prove some fixed point theorems for contraction maps on E-uniform spaces. Examples are given to support our results. The results generalize and extend some results in literature. Keywords: E-Uniform Spaces, Fixed Point Theorems 9|Page ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Arithmetic Operations in Deterministic P Systems Based on the Weak Rule Priority Chinedu M. Peter Dasharath Singh [email protected] [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna, Nigeria. We construct a simple variant of P systems for arithmetic operations on non-negative integers based on the weak priorities for rule application. Consequently, we obtain deterministic P systems. It is verified that two membranes suffice. Moreover, there are at most four objects for multiplication and five objects for division throughout the computation processes. The P systems so obtained serve as bases upon which other complex operations may be built, and upon which basic operations may be extended to cover the set of positive and negative real numbers. Keywords: P System, Binary Operation, Determinism, Weak Rule Priority Arithmetic Operations in Deterministic P Systems Based on the Weak Rule Priority Chinedu Peter [email protected] Federal University, Dutsin-ma, Katsina, Nigeria We construct a variant of P systems for arithmetic operations on non-negative integers based on the weak priorities for rule application. Consequently, we obtain deterministic P systems. Two membranes suffice. There are at most four objects for multiplication and five objects for division throughout the computation processes. The model is simple and has a potential for possible extension to non-negative integers and real numbers in general Keywords: P Systems, Weak Priority Rule 10 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Solution and Application of Biological Pest Control Models in Agriculture O. D. Ogwumu [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Ilorin, P.M.B. 1515, Ilorin, Nigeria. M. O Ibrahim The research is concerned with the development and application of a biological pest control model in agriculture. In the study, the solution to the proposed biological pest control model was obtained and validated with some collected prey-predator population data. The outcome of the data validation showed that, biological pest control encourages large yields without polluting the ecosystem and could be adopted as a substitute to the popularly known chemical mode of pest control. The result thus recommends the model proposed as a standard means of pest control. Keywords: Bio-Pest Control, Ecosystem-Friendly, Optimisation, Prey-Predator, Interaction, Model Validity, Pollution, Ecosystem. Schwarzschild’s Radius of Some Planets in the Solar System using Newtonian Expression for Escape Velocity M.A.Ahmadu [email protected] Gombe State University, Gombe, Nigeria E.N.Chifu Federal University Dutse, Jigawa, Nigeria B.I.Tijjani Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria The need to understand black hole formation, property and absorption of other celestial bodies is an interested issue in Astrophysics and Astronomy. The collapse of any mass to Schwarz child’s radius appears to be unobservable beyond this radius thus, the name Schwarz child’s black hole. The Schwarz child’s radius for the common some planets was computed using Newtonian expression for escape velocity. Results obtained show that among the planets Jupiter require a very large amount of gravitational pull to reduce to black hole with a radius smaller than the radius of their surface and is similar to those obtained using different approaches Keywords: Black Hole, Schwarzchild’s Radius, Newtonian Expression, Escape Velocity 11 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Third and Fourth Order Trigonometrically Fitted Improved Runge – Kutta Methods Abdulrahman Ndanusa Aliyu Umar Mustapha [email protected] [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria A trigonometrically - fitted third and fourth order Improved Runge – Kutta (IRK) method whose coefficients depend on the frequency and step – size are constructed. The methods are applied to solve sample initial value problems (IVPs) with oscillating solutions. Numerical results obtained are compared with those of existing explicit IRK methods of the same order. The comparison shows that the trigonometrically fitted methods are much more effective and efficient than the non – fitted methods, with similar cost. Keywords: Oscillating Solution, Improved Runge – Kutta, Trigonometrically - Fitted, Initial Value Problem On Mathematical Structural Element Optimization using Large Dimensional Design Variables A. S. Odesola I.O. Abiala [email protected] [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos. Structural optimization can be defined in a number of ways. However its principal objectives is to found the best design out of many designs that satisfies a prescribed criterion. It can be explained as a process of maximizing or minimizing a designed objective function while satisfying the prevailing constraints. This paper seeks to address problems associated with large dimension of design variables with a numerical method used for the generation of design of experiments with higher dimensions. Numerical results are presented for the simulation to show the efficiency and accuracy of the approach. Keywords: Structural Optimization, Large Dimensional, Constraints, Simulation 12 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria A Class of Block Hybrid Linear Multi-Step Method for the Solution of Third Order Boundary Value Problem U. Mohammed Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria R. B. Adeniyi B. M. Yisa [email protected] Department of Department of Mathematics, Mathematics, University of Ilorin, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria Nigeria A. I. Ma’ali Department of Mathematics/Computer science Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University Lapai, Niger State, Nigeria In this paper, we proposed a family of three step Hybrid Linear Multi-step Method (HLMM) for direct solution of third order boundary value problems. Orders, error constant and convergence analysis of the proposed method are established. The interval of absolute stability is calculated using General Linear Method (GLM) techniques. Numerical experiment are performed to show the efficiency of the methods Keywords: Boundary Value Problem, Hybrid Linear Multistep Method. Round-Off Stability in Modular Function Spaces Godwin Amechi Okeke [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria In this study, we prove some round-off stability theorems in modular function spaces. Our results generalize and extend several known results in the framework of modular function spaces. Keywords: Modular Function Space 13 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Two-Step Laguerre Polynomial Hybrid Block Method for the Solution of Real-Life Modeled First-Order Differential Equations J. Sunday [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria Y. Skwame A. O. Adesanya Department of Mathematics, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria Department of Mathematics, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola, Nigeria We develop a two-step hybrid block method for the solution of real-life modelled first-order differential equations using the Laguerre polynomial as our basis function via interpolation and collocation techniques. The paper further investigates the basic properties of the method and found it to be zero-stable, consistent and convergent. The method was also tested on some sampled reallife modelled first-order differential equations and found to perform better than some existing ones with which we compared our results. Keywords: Hybrid, Laguerre Polynomial, Oscillatory, Stiff, Two-Step Sigmoid Function in Univalent Functions Theory and Applications M. O. Oluwayemi [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Adeniran Ogunsanya College of Education, Otto/Ijanikin, P.M.B. 2007, Ijanikin, Lagos, Nigeria. O. A. Fadipe-Joseph [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Ilorin, P.M.B. 1515, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. Using a generalized Salagean differential operator involving modified sigmoid function introduced by Fadipe-Joseph et al 2013, a new family of holomorphic functions 𝑓(𝑧) which is analytic and univalent in the open unit disk 𝑈 = {𝑧: |𝑧| < 1 } are defined and its major geometric properties established. Keywords: Modified Sigmoid Function, Univalent Functions, Coefficient Estimates, Radii Of Starlikeness, Fekete-Szego Inequality, Convolution Property. 14 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Discrete Enhanced Differential Evolution (DEDE) for Solving Combinatorial Optimization Problems B. A. Sawyerr [email protected] E. P. Fasina [email protected] Machine Intelligence Research Group Department of Computer Sciences University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria S. E. Amadi Differential Evolution (DE) was proposed by Storn and Price in 1995 as an evolutionary algorithm for solving optimization problems in the continuous domain. DE has been successfully applied in solving complex real world numerical problems. Enhanced Differential Evolution (EDE) was successfully used by Onwubolu and Davendra to solve different class of permutation-based combinatorial optimization problems. In this paper, a novel version of EDE is introduced and numerical experiments were carried out to compare the performances of EDE and DEDE on 48 benchmark problems representing the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP), Quadratic Assignment Problems (QAP), Flow Shop Scheduling Problems (FSSP) and Linear Ordering Problems (LOP). The results obtained shows that DEDE outperformed EDE. Keywords: Discrete Differential Evolution, Combinatorial Optimization Problems Linear Programming Relaxation and Duality of Airline Crew Scheduling N. Nyor Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology Minna, Niger State, Nigeria K. Rauf Department of Mathematics, University of Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria J. O. Omolehin Department of Mathematics, Federal University Lokoja, Kogi State, Nigeria In the work, an integer program (IP) of IRS airline crew formulation was considered. It was relaxed to a minimization form of Linear Programming (LP). The duality of the LP in minimization form yielded the maximization form of the LP problem. The results of the IP, LP relaxation and its Dual consistently show the same objective value of 3,183 minutes, proving the consistency and the characteristic property of duality. Keywords: Rumor Models, Rumor Propagation, Political Motivated Rumour, Epidemiological Models; Stability Analysis, Transition Parameter 15 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Maia-type Common Coupled Fixed Point Theorem in Cone Metric Spaces Kamiludeen Rotimi kamil [email protected] The author uses certain holomorphic univalent function involving modified sigmoid function with a generalised Salagean operator to establish a new subclass of univalent functions. The various results investigated in this paper include coefficient estimates, extreme points and radii properties. Keywords: Cone Metric Space, Holomorphic Univalent Function Effects of Fluid Temperature, Shear Stress and Heat Transter on a Wall Driven Steady Flow in a Porous Plate O.J. Fenuga F.I. Akinwale This work considers an incompressible axisymetric wall driven steady flow of a viscous fluid in a uniformly porous tube of a circular cross section. The governing continuity, navier-stokes and energy equations are solved using perturbation series method thereby obtaining the equations of the temperature distribution of the fluid flow pattern in the tube, the wall shear stress and the rate of heat transfer across the wall. The graphical results show that the fluid temperature increases as the prandtl number increases with maximum value at the pipe centreline and decreases transversely with minimum value at the wall. Also, increase in Reynolds number increases the fluid temperature with maximum magnitude at the centre of the pipe and minimum at the wall. The wall shear stress is parabolic in nature. The rate of heat transfer increases or decreases monotonically with increase or decrease in Reynolds or prandtl number. Keywords: Fluid Temperature, Heat Transfer, Shear Stress, Porous Plate. 16 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria On the Optimal Control Problems Constrained by Delay Differential Equation using Penalty Function with B-Spline Ayodeji Sunday Afolabi Department of Mathematical Sciences, The Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo, Nigeria This paper proposes an efficient algorithm using discretization with B-spline polynomial support for the control. We discretize the objective function and the constraint using trapezoidal rule and Cranck Nilcholson Method respectively. With this development, an unconstrained formulation of the problem via quadratic penalty function was obtained and the evolution of an associated operator which gave the framework for the application of the conjugate gradient method (CGM) for solving the problem was established. Two hypothetical examples are considered, tested and the results of the new scheme compared much more favourably to the analytical solution and the convergence analysis was found to be linear. Keywords: Differential Equation, Optimal Control Problems An Improved Version of Conjugate Gradient Coefficient with Global Convergence Properties for Unconstrained Optimization S. E Olowo Abdulhadi Aminu [email protected] Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Kano, Nigeria. Sulaiman I, M Conjugate gradient (CG) method has played an important role in solving unconstrained optimization. Their wide application in many fields is due to their low memory requirement and global convergence properties. Numerous studies have been done recently to improve the CG method. In this paper, an improved formula for conjugate gradient coefficient k has been proposed which possesses the global convergence properties under exact line search. The result of the numerical experiment has shown that this new formula performs better than the classical CG methods. Keywords: Conjugate Gradient Method; Conjugate Gradient Coefficient; Sufficient Descent Condition; Global Convergence: Exact Line Search. 17 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria 𝑳𝟎 Stable Trigonometrically Fitted Block Backward Differentiation Formula of Adams Type for Autonomous Oscillatory Problems S.A Okunuga R.I. Abdulganiy Department of Mathematics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. In this paper, an 𝐿0 Stable Second Derivative Trigonometrically Fitted Block Backward Differentiation Formula Of Adams Type (SDTFBBDFA) of algebraic order 4is presented for the solution of autonomous oscillatory problems. A Continuous Second Derivative Trigonometrically Fitted (CSDTF) whose coefficients depend on the frequency and step size is constructed using trigonometric basis function. The CSDTF is used to generate the main method and one additional method which are combined and applied in block form as simultaneous numerical integrators. The stability properties of the method are investigated using boundary locus plot. It is found that the method is zero stable, consistent and hence converges. The method is applied on some numerical examples and the result show that the method is accurate and efficient. Keywords: Derivative. Trigonometrically Fitted methods; Autonomous Oscillatory Problems; Second On a Faster Hybrid Kirk-Multistep Schemes for ContractiveType Operators Olalekan Taofeek Wahab [email protected] Department of Statistics & Mathematical Sciences Kwara State University, Malete, Kwara, Nigeria Kamilu Rauf Department of Mathematics University of Ilorin, Ilorin Kwara, Nigeria In this paper, we prove strong convergence and T-stability results of some new hybrid Kirkmultistep iterations for contractive-type operator in convex metric spaces. Our results show through analytical and numerical approach that the newly hybrid schemes are better in terms of convergence rate than other hybrid Kirk-multistep iterative schemes in the literature. Keywords: Hybrid Kirk-multistep, Contractive-type Operator 18 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Stability Analysis for a Model of Measles Incorporating Maternally-Derived-Immunity S. A. Somma Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria N. I. Akinwande Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria P. Gana Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Niger State Polytechnic, Zungeru, Nigeria S. Abdulrahaman T. T. Ashezua Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria Department of Mathematics/ Statistics/Computer Science, Federal University of Agriculture, Makurdi, Nigeria Eguda, F. Y [email protected] Department of Mathematics Federal University, Dutse, Nigeria. In Somma et al (2015), we modified the MSIR model by including vaccination and death rate. In developed countries, children are immunized against measles at 12 months, generally as part of a three-part MMR vaccine. The vaccination is generally not given before this age because such infants respond inadequately to the vaccine due to an immature immune system. Anti-measles antibodies are transferred from mothers who have been vaccinated against measles or have been previously infected with measles to their newborn children. The Local Stability of both Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) and Endemic Equilibrium (EE) was analyzed using trace-determinant of matrix method. The Global Stability of both DFE and EE was also analyzed using Lyapunov function. The Local and global stability of both DFE and EE were asymptotically stable. Keywords: Lyapunov function, Stability Analysis. 19 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Optimal Control Analysis of the Effect of Multiple Control Strategies on Cholera Disease Transmission Dynamics in the Presence of Asymptotic Transmission E. A. Bakare E. B. Are Department of Mathematics, Federal University, Oye Ekiti, Ekiti, Nigeria In this paper, we formulate and analysed non-linear ordinary differential mathematical model of cholera disease exhibiting the impact of multiple control strategies on the transmission dynamics of cholera. We determined the stability of the disease free and endemic equilibrium locally and the reproduction number. If the reproduction number is less than one then the cholera eventually will disappear from the population but if it is greater than one the disease will persist in the population and more people will die. We also investigate the influence of asymptotic transmission on the dynamics of cholera transmission and carried out detailed sensitivity analysis and qualitative optimal control analysis of the cholera model. We find the necessary conditions for the optimal control of the malaria disease using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle in order to determine optimal strategies for controlling the spread of the disease. We finally established the effect of the control strategies on the dynamical behaviour of the system using numerical simulation to illustrate. Keywords: Optimal control, Computational simulations, Disease Free Equilibrium, Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, stability theory. 20 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Mixed Convective Flow of a Viscous and Ohmic Dissipating Reactive Hydromagnetic Fluid Past a Vertical Stretching Sheet Ajibade Kehinde James Adetunji Adeniyan [email protected] [email protected] Department of Mathematics University of Lagos, Akoka, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria Of concern in this paper is an investigation of laminar mixed convection magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) reactive flow and heat transfer past a vertical stretching per-meable sheet encompassed in a viscous and ohmic dissipating electrically conducting fluid awash in transverse magnetics field in the presence of Frank-Kamenetskii effect. The governing partial differential equations with the boundary conditions of constant wall temperature CWT or constant wall heat flux CHF are converted into a set of ordinary differential equations by means of suitable similarly transformations. The transformed set of equations are solved numerically using RungeKutta integration method alongside a Newton-Raphson shooting scheme and then implemented on Maple 18 software. It was found that the dimensionaless velocity and temperature increase as local Eckert number increases in either of CWT or CHF. The velocity and temperature variation are presented in graphs while flow and heat transfer characteristics are demonstrated in tables. The thermal conductivity variation parameter has considerable effects on heat transfer characteristics in the two cases of thermal boundary conditions. The numerical results have been compared with the analytical case and found to be in perfect agreement. Keywords: Magnetohydrodyamics (MHD), Heat viscous and Ohmic dissipation, FrankKamenetskii heat deposition, Temperature dependent fluid properties. 21 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Comparism of Similarity Measure Methods, for the Evolvement of Modified Similarity Measure for Detection of Character Misposition and Transposition within a String Y. Raji-Lawal Hanat [email protected] Lagos State University Ojo, Lagos, Nigeria T. Adewale Adio [email protected] Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun, Nigeria Similarity measure method compares two different entities, to evaluate their commonality and disparity. It is applicable to various fields, like computational molecular biology, genomics, natural language processing, word processing and so on. In this context, it will be used for matching pattern and text, to verify their commonality. There are situations where two strings will be of the same character composition, but different character positioning. Most of similarity measure methods of complexity o(n) compares based on the composition of strings, without considering their position. This research studied the behaviour of different similarity measure methods, and deduced a modified similarity measure to solve this problem. Several similarity measures were studied, five similarity measure with complexity o(n) where observed and compare based on their behaviour to strings of the same set of character composition, but different positioning. The selected similarity measures are Jaccard, Overlapping, Cosine, dice and Jaccard coefficient similarity measure. It was observed during comparism of similarity values obtained from the similarity measure methods that, Jaccard, Jaccard coefficient, and Overlapping similarity measure considers strings of the same composition but different position as exactly the same. In critical situations like natural language processing this will cause a lot of confusion. Cosine and Dice similarity measure behaves quite better than the later. Modified Jaccard coefficient similarity measure solves this problem absolutely. Comparing its similarity value to the value of existing ones, it was observed that Modified Jaccard coefficient similarity measure performs excellently in detecting mis-position and transposition of characters while matching pattern and text. Keywords: Similarity measure method, Similarity value, Mis-position and Transposition. 22 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Longitudinal Data of Household Income in the Presence of Outlier Densities A.O. Bello [email protected] Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria O. M. Adetutu [email protected] Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria F.A Oguntolu [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria This work reports on the use of maximum likelihood function L(Ɵ) and the probability graphical method to estimate the location parameter for a mini metro-Neapolitan household income(X) with heterogeneous social-economic composition. The Easy_t software was used to _t the household income data to suggest the possible probability distribution(s) for the data. Some of the suggested distributions were taken as the functional form of the income's(X as a r.v) probability distribution and they were empirically solved using the maximum likelihood method of estimation. The estimate that are most consistent with the sample data were solved analytically based on the distribution function(s) suggested by easy_t software. We also compared the maximum likelihood estimates(MLE) obtained from each functions graphically using R-programing language Keywords:Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Probability Graphical Plots, Distribution Function, Household Income 23 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Application of System of Linear Equations to a 3-Arm Roundabout Network Flows O. M. Adetutu [email protected] Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria Nyor Ngutor [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria A.O. Bello [email protected] Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria A mathematical model was presented and used to determine turning movements at roundabouts based on field data. Assumptions were made in order to simplify the model; such as no U-turns from and to the same arm of a roundabout, total traffic into the roundabout is equal to total traffic out of the roundabout and traffic is homogeneous (i.e. mainly consisting of vehicles). Using Gaussian elimination, turning movements could be estimated for 3-arm roundabouts for the indeterminate traffic steam movements when inflows and outflows for each arm of the roundabout is known together with a flow stream on one internal circulating (weaving) section between any two arms of the roundabout. The model has practical use in reducing the number of detectors or counters (whether automatic, videoing techniques or manual methods are in use) which are needed in collecting data to determine the estimated flows from and to the different parts of a roundabout. The reduction in the number of detectors (or traffic counts) could be due to site limitations caused by faulty or limited number of counters used, inaccessible sections for obtaining video images for later analysis (e.g. presence of sharp bends buildings or large trees obscuring vision). The benefits in cut saving costs could be significant in terms of time and man-power needed on site and this could depend on the amount of traffic ow through the roundabout. Keywords: Roundabouts, Traffic, Detector, Inflows, Indeterminate and Outflows. 24 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Effect of Chemical Reaction on Heat and Mass Transfer Embedded in a Porous Medium over an Exponentially Porous Stretching Surface S. A. Amoo [email protected] Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Wukari, Nigeria The effect of chemical reaction on heat and mass transfer embedded in porous medium is implemented over an exponentially porous stretching surface. The emerging governing equations were simplified using similarity variable function and some relevant dimensionless parameters. The modelled equations were solved using Runge-Kutta method with shooting techniques. These were done by converting those modelled equations to an initial value problem. They were then solved using Maple 18. The numerical computations were presented in tabular and graphical forms for variable fluid parameters controlling the flow, chemical reaction, heat and mass transfer. The results in form of the velocity, temperature and concentration profiles, Skin friction and Sherwood number with varied parameters were discussed. The results were analysed and compared with the existing solutions; these were found to have minimal errors Keywords: Boundary Layer, Fluid Flow, Runge-Kutta, Shooting Technique. 25 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria A Hybrid Dynamic Programming Technique for Optimizing Stock Allocation using Chebyshev Polynomial Approximation C. R. Chikwendu C. R. Emenonye Mathematics Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe university, Awka The channel of distribution is only complete when the manufactured goods and services get to the final consumers. The wide gap between the manufacturer and the consumer is filled by proper and efficient allocation technique through stock management. Stocking is the process of holding goods in a place for future use or sale. The act of maintaining stock has its associated cost likewise the act of not keeping stock. This work designs an efficient allocation technique that optimizes returns and balances the costs arising from stock keeping. Dynamic programming is a linear optimization method that determines the optimum solution of a multivariable problem by decomposing it into stages with each comprising a single variable sub program. A mathematical model based on the Dynamic programming method (DPM) is developed using the Chebyshev polynomial approximation technique. Relevant related literature are reviewed, theorems and illustrative examples are included. Keywords: Stock Allocation, Polynomial Approximation. 26 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Optimal Control of Air Pollution via Electric Power Generating System Model Y.O. Aderinto O.M. Bamigbola Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Physical Sciences, University of Ilorin, P.M.B. 1515, Ilorin, Nigeria Air pollution is the introduction of particulates biological molecules, or other harmful materials into Earth’s atmosphere, causing diseases, death to humans, and damage to other living organisms. Electric power generation is responsible for large measure of air pollution which is caused by the thermal power plants burning conventional fuels (coal, oil or gas).Therefore, substantial investments should be targeted towards the development of power plants efficiency and improvement through variety of adjustments. This work proposes a Mathematical model that describes the dynamics of air pollution (in particular atmospheric Co2) with respect to an electric power generating system model using an optimal control theory approach. The model is characterized together with plants efficiency and improvement through applying technologies. The optimality system is established in attempt to minimizing both the cost of applying technology for efficiency improvement as well as the atmospheric emission while maximizing the electric power generated output. Keywords: Air Pollution, Power Generating System 27 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Mathematical Modelling, Simulation and Optimization of a Reactive Distillation Process using Matrix Laboratory Abdulwahab Giwa Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Afe Babalola University, KM. 8.5, Afe Babalola Way, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti, Nigeria Saidat Olanipekun Giwa Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Engineering Technology, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Tafawa Balewa Way,P.M.B. 0248, Bauchi, Nigeria Reactive distillation is a novel process that combines both chemical reaction and separation in a single piece of equipment. It is normally accomplished inside a column. Actually, the process has a lot of benefits, especially for those reactions occurring at temperatures and pressures suitable for the distillation of the resulting components. These benefits include shift of chemical equilibrium and an increase of reaction conversion by simultaneous reaction and separation of products, suppression of side reaction, utilization of heat of reaction for mass transfer operation, and so on. The synergistic effects of these benefits also result in significant economic benefits such as lower capital investment, lower energy cost and higher product yields of the process compared to a conventional type. However, the combination of both reaction and separation in a single unit has made the modelling of the process a bit challenging. It has been deemed necessary to employ a mathematical method to handle the modelling of this process in an effective manner. Therefore, in this research work, the modelling knowledge of mathematics has been employed to develop equations for the different phenomena occurring at some specific sections of a reactive distillation column. The developed models were simulated and, further, optimized with the aid of Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) in order to obtain the values of the model parameters required to give the desired mole fractions of the product components of the process. Keywords: Reactive Distillation, Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB), Modelling, Simulation, Optimization. 28 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Determining the Teaching Efficiency of University Lecturers using Data Envelopment Analysis Odina Gbeminiyi [email protected] Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo, Nigeria Rotimi K. Ogundeji [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Lagos, Nigeria. This paper assesses the technical efficiency and efficiency differences among 20 University teaching staff in Ajayi Crowther University by a linear programming based technique, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Here, the lecturers are our decision making units (DMUs) we assessed the DMUs using seven inputs and two outputs variables. Inputs include: No. of teaching hours, lecturer's attendance in class, students' attendance in class, class size, lecturer's experience, lecturer's qualification, physical and ancillary teaching facilities) while outputs are students average marks and students pass rate. A descriptive statistics of data sets of input and output variables based on data from the Academic planning unit of the University was calculated. In other to determine the strength of a DMU output performance in relation to its input variables, a correlation between the input and output variables were carried out, thereby excluding input or output variables with weak cross-correlation from further analysis. To accommodate the diversity of DMUs in respect of their inputs and achieved effects, only variables with sufficiently high coefficient of variation (C.V.) were selected for analysis with the DEA models. The input oriented CCR model was used to determine the Global Technical Efficiency (GTE) scores, target value of input-output factors and improvement ratio. While the input-oriented BCC model was used to measure the Local Pure Technical Efficiency (LPTE) scores. The scale efficiency was also obtained from the proportion the GTE and LPTE scores. The method is found to identify efficient and inefficient University teaching Staff and provides management information relative to input and output measures. Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, University Lecturers, Teaching efficiency. 29 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Optimized Naïve Bayesian Algorithm for Efficient Performance Obuandike Georgina N. Department of Mathematical Sciences and IT, Federal University Dutsinma, Katsina state, Nigeria. Audu Isah Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Niger State John Alhasan Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Niger State, Nigeria Naïve Bayesian algorithm is a data mining algorithm that depicts relationship between data objects using probabilistic method. Classification using Bayesian algorithm is usually done by finding the class that has the highest probability value. Data mining is a popular research area that consists of algorithm development and pattern extraction from database using different algorithms. Classification is one of the major tasks of data mining which aimed at building a model (classifier) that can be used to predict unknown class labels. There are so many algorithms for classification such as decision tree classifier, neural network, rule induction and naïve Bayesian. This paper is focused on naïve Bayesian algorithm which is a classical algorithm for classifying categorical data. It easily converged at local optima. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm has gained recognition in many fields of human endeavours and has been applied to enhance efficiency and accuracy in different problem domain. This paper proposed an optimized naïve Bayesian classifier using particle swarm optimization to overcome the problem of premature convergence and to improve the efficiency of the naïve Bayesian algorithm. The classification result from the optimized naïve Bayesian when compared with the traditional algorithm showed a better performance. Keywords: Data Mining, Classification, Particle Swarm Optimization, Naïve Bayesian 30 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Modeling Rumour Propagation with Conditional Latent Period in a Varying Population H. K. Oduwole I. K. Joseph Department of Mathematical Sciences, Nasarawa State University, Keffi. [email protected] K. S. Ikani In this paper a rumour propagation model with conditional latent period and varying population is considered. In the literature, classical model assume that an ignorant individual enters the latent period and decide whether to become a spreader or stifler. In our model we introduce a new compartment called the blackmailers, another type of spreaders who spread the rumour for selfish reason. The model equations were first transformed into proportions, thus reducing the model equations from five to four differential equations. The model exhibit two equilibra, namely the rumour free equilibrium (RFE) and the rumour endemic equilibrium (REE). Using the method of linearized stability, we establish that the RFE state exist and is locally asymptomatically stable when 𝑅0 < 1 and that when 𝑅0 > 1 the endemic state exist. The model allows us to discuss the relationship between spreaders and blackmailers, and the effect of blackmailers on the on the stiflers. Finally, we present numerical simulations that show the impact of political motivated rumours and how its control can be achieved. Keywords: Rumor Models, Rumor Propagation, Political Motivated Rumour, Epidemiological Models; Stability Analysis, Transition Parameter 31 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Subclasses of Univalent Functions Based Salagean Differential Operator Involving Modified Sigmoid Function with Finitely Many Fixed Coefficients M. O. Oluwayemi [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Landmark University, P.M.B. 1001 Omu-Aran, Kwara State, Nigeria O. A. Fadipe-Joseph [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Ilorin, P.M.B. 1515, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. By using Salagean differential operator involving modified sigmoid function 𝛾(𝑠) defined by (1.4), the authors investigate some interesting geometric properties of certain subclasses of holomorphic univalent functions of the form: 𝑚 ∞ 𝛾(𝑠)(1 − 𝛽) + 𝛽[2𝛼(𝛾(𝑠) − 𝜇) − 𝜆] − 𝜇 𝑛 𝑓(𝑧) = 𝑧 − ∑ 𝑧 − ∑ 𝑎𝑘 𝑧 𝑘 1 𝑛=2 [𝛾(𝑠)𝑘[1 − 𝛽(1 − 2𝛼)] − 𝛽(𝜆 + 2𝛼𝜇 + ] 𝑘=𝑚+1 𝛽 With finitely many fixed coefficients. The results extend and generalise some existing results in literature such as Fadipe-Joseph O.A, et al (2015). Keywords: Modified Sigmoid Function, Univalent Functions, Coefficient Estimates, Radii Of Starlikeness, Fekete-Szego Inequality, Convolution Property. 32 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Designing of a Cost Effective Fibre Optic Network Backbone using Genetic Algorithm Akintola Kolawole In today's world no business or establishment can function properly without a solid information technology infrastructure. The latest information technology infrastructure being deployed today use fibre optic as backbone due to increasing user requirements. However, the cost of fibre optic cables is on the high side. Therefore, network topology should be modelled using a spanning tree that optimizes connection cost. Recently, genetic algorithms (GAs) have been used to solve this problem. In this paper, a GA is applied in minimizing the cost of connecting hospitals in Ondo state with fiber optic cables. Finally, we carried out the practicality of the problems on some selected hospitals in Ondo state, Nigeria in order to certify the cost requirements of the network design obtained by using the proposed GA. From the results, is observed that the proposed method can save cost. Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Fibre Optic Network 33 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Application of Optimization Techniques to the Operations R. K. Ogundeji [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Lagos, Nigeria. R. O. Okafor [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Lagos, Nigeria. I. A. Adeleke [email protected] Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance, University of Lagos, Nigeria. In regression model analyses, computation often appears practically infeasible due to the large numbers of regressors (k) involved in a model of 2k model space. However, conditioning on a single selected model ignores model and parameter uncertainty when making inferences. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is a technique designed to help account for the uncertainty inherent in the model selection process. Also, issues of the choice of prior distribution have been quite delicate in data analysis. Posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty under model selection process are typically sensitive to the specification of a prior distribution. Informative prior distributions related to a natural conjugate prior specification are investigated under a limited choice of a single scalar hyper parameter (g-prior) which corresponds to the degree of prior uncertainty on regression coefficients. This study focused on a situation where we need to deal with extremely large model space (i.e. up to septillion of models!) made up of large set of regressors generated by a small number of observations. The study proposed an improved g-priors specification for regression coefficients in Bayesian Model Averaging and demonstrated the sensitivity of posterior results to the choice of the new g-prior on simulated data and real-life data. The main finding of the research reveals that the proposed g-prior structure exhibited more reliable predictive performance than identified g-prior structures in the work of Fernandez et al. (2001) and Eicher et al (2007). Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, Bayesian Model Sampling, Zellner’s g-Priors, Posterior Model Probability, Predictive Performance. 34 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria The Effect of Rain on Earth-Space Radiowave Propagation Studies of Tropical Satellite Communication in Nigeria M. O. Oyesanya Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka. E.N Unaegbu Department of Mathematics, Salem University, Lokoja. Among other atmospheric region, ionosphere, which is the ionized region of the atmosphere, is considered to impose serious limitation on radio wave transmission while the effect of other layers, more especially, the troposphere is often treated as negligible. However, recent studies have shown that while the ionospheric disturbances can be predicted on a global scale, tropospheric disturbances depend on geographic location due to dependence of local meteorology on surface topography and other specific location weather forcing. A number of models have been used by many researchers in the investigating of atmospheric attenuation. The objective of this thesis is to discuss the rain effect on high frequency radio waves between 10 and 50 GHz propagating on earth-space in the troposphere for 4 locations in Nigeria, investigating the losses it may come across and comparing them with the model used by one of the researchers. Two standard elevations angle of 50 and 550 were used in the computation of the propagation impairment for the 4 locations. Keywords: Rain, Attenuation, Experimental Model, Elevation, Troposphere. 35 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Forecasting the Volatility of Nigerian Inflation Rates using Artificial Neural Networks and ARIMA Models M.O Akintunde, Department of Statistics, The Federal Polytechnic, Ede, Osun, Nigeria. G. A. Olalude Department of Statistics, The Federal Polytechnic, Ede, Osun, Nigeria. I. A. Adeleke Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria This paper examines the forecast accuracy of artificial neural networks and Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with application to Nigerian inflation rates. Theories of the two models used were clearly established and applied to Nigerian inflation rates data. Statistical package for social scientist (SPSS) were used to analyze the data used for the study. The model fitted for ARIMA is (0,1,0). The model with better forecast performance was established using performance measure indices like MSE, MAPE, MAE, MAD and RMSE.The results obtained show that the two models used in the study (Artificial neural Network and Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models can be effectively used for forecasting purpose. Artificial neural Network, however, out-performed ARIMA model. Keywords: Artificial Neural Network; ARIMA Model; Inflation Rate; Forecast Accuracy, Performance Measure Indices. 36 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Optimization of Maintenance Strategy in Power Transmission System using Differential Evolution Algorithm Peter O. Oluseyi [email protected] Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria Babatunde A. Sawyerr [email protected] Department of Computer Sciences University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria Tobi E. Shomefun [email protected] Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria In modern electricity market, maintenance strategy is a major requirement for power system networks efficiency and reliability. The power system networks consist of several aging components such as insulators, isolators, circuit breakers, etc... These components in the transmission networks age with time and this in turn affects the system’s efficiency and reliability. A good strategy must provide necessary/required maintenance for each component by optimizing maintenance decision for the network. This research work presents an optimal maintenance strategy for transmission network components to mitigate degradation due to inefficient maintenance procedure. Since a transmission system is a group of different kinds of equipment and the reliability of the electric facilities varies with time, a component state model using a modified Markov chain is proposed. In addition, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm is deployed to evaluate the optimal maintenance strategy from a list of feasible maintenance states. This method is tested on Ogba transmission station, Lagos State, Nigeria. The results show that the proposed maintenance strategy maintains power delivery at 91%, this further ensures that preventive maintenance of power equipment improves the system reliability by 26% as compared to the conventional approach. All these suggest that for a transmission network to deliver service optimally then the decision vector, based on the proposed maintenance strategy should be implemented appropriately. Keywords: Differential Evolution, Maintenance Strategy, Transmission Network. 37 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria A Novel Economic Dispatch Model for Gas Maximization In Thermal Plants Uyikumhe Damisa [email protected] Peter Olabisi Oluseyi [email protected] The aim of conventional economic dispatch (ED) is to meet total demand at the lowest possible cost of generation by determining the power output of each generating unit. Its formulation is based on the assumption that fuel supply to the thermal station is adequate to meet demand. While this assumption is true for an ideal power system, some thermal stations in Nigeria experience shortage in gas supply. Conventional ED fails under such circumstances. A novel formulation is proposed, which maximizes the available fuel by determining the power output of each thermal unit. This formulation is modelled and solved with General Algebraic Modelling Systems (GAMS). Egbin power plant, the largest installed single electricity generation plant in Nigeria, is taken as the case study in this paper. It’s evident from the results obtained that the proposed approach achieves a greater power output than was realized during normal operation of the plant. Limited fuel supply to thermal stations can therefore be optimally utilized by applying the proposed approach. Keywords: Differential Evolution, Optimal Control Problems 38 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Solving Permutation-Based Combinatorial Optimization Problems using Simulated Annealing B. A. Sawyerr [email protected] E. P. Fasina O. O. Fagbohun [email protected] [email protected] Machine Intelligence Research Group Department of Computer Sciences University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria Simulated Annealing (SA) is a metaheuristic that is used for solving hard optimization problems. It is inspired by the physical process of annealing in metallurgy. Annealing is a process of subjecting a metal to very high temperature and gradually cooling down the metal to obtain highquality crystalline structure(s). SA is a nature inspired, single solution optimization algorithm. In this work, a population-based simulated annealing (PSA) is proposed and used to solve four classes of permutation based combinatorial optimization problems (PCOP) namely Traveling salesman problem (TSP), Flow shop scheduling problem (FSSP), Quadratic assignment problem (QAP) and Linear ordering problem (LOP) selected from TSPLIB, OR-Library, QAP-Library and LOLIB. A numerical experiment was carried out to compare the performances of the classical SA and PSA. Results obtained showed that PSA significantly performed better than the classical SA. Keywords: Simulated Annealing, Permutation-Based Combinatorial Optimization Problems. 39 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria The Fully-Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Ebun P. Fasina [email protected] Babatunde. A. Sawyerr [email protected] Oluwatobi A. Adetunji [email protected] Machine Intelligence Research Group Department of Computer Sciences University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is a population based optimization algorithm inspired by nature and has been used to solve linear and non-linear real-life problems with very impressive results. However the performance of PSO is very sensitive to the selection of its parameters namely: inertia weight 𝜔, maximum velocity 𝑣𝑚𝑎𝑥 , cognitive constant 𝑐1 , social constant 𝑐2 and the population of particles 𝑃. For good performance on a test problem experiments must be conducted with PSO using varied parameter settings to determine the best. This approach is time consuming and may not be suitable when good solutions to a problem are required quickly by non-experts. In this work we present a PSO algorithm that gives competitive solutions to problems without the user setting any parameters. During each run of PSO, the population of particles is determined from the dimensions of the problem space while the parameters 𝜔, 𝑣𝑚𝑎𝑥 , 𝑐1 and 𝑐2 of each particle are adjusted dynamically to match the distribution of particle fitness in the search space. Having particle parameters change or adjust in relation to swarm conditions and particle states gives the Fully Adaptive PSO (FAPSO) an above average performance on most benchmarks by speeding up convergence and reducing computational time. Keywords: Cognitive constant, Convergence, Fully-adaptive, Inertia Weight, Particle Swarm Optimization, Social Constant. 40 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria The Range-Delimited Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Ebun P. Fasina [email protected] Chika P. Ojiako Ozioma A. Paul [email protected] [email protected] Machine Intelligence Research Group Department of Computer Sciences University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria Since the emergence of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm researchers have created PSO variants in an attempt to solve PSO’s premature convergence problem. However the problem persists in various degrees. This work introduces the Range-Delimited PSO (RDPSO) algorithm, a variant of PSO to tackle the premature convergence problem. Particles in RDPSO are delimited to cognitive ranges – subspaces of the search space – to control exploration and intensify exploitation. Each particle is initialized into a cognitive range which overlaps the cognitive range of other particles in the problems spaces. As the algorithm progresses through iterations the cognitive range of each particle shrinks by adaptation. Versions of the RDPSO for the global best and local best PSO versions are considered. RDPSO was implemented using the C# programming language on the Microsoft .NET platform. The new algorithm is tested on fifteen selected unimodal and multimodal benchmark functions with good results. This work suggests the feasibility of range-domiciled – an aggregated search of subspaces within the problem space – and holds great promise for future work. Keywords: Cognitive Range, Premature Convergence, Range-Delimited, Range-Domiciled. 41 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria The Foraging Bees Optimization Algorithm Ebun P. Fasina [email protected] Babatunde A. Sawyerr Shuaibu B. Alkassim [email protected] [email protected] Machine Intelligence Research Group Department of Computer Sciences University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria Honey bee colonies depend on pollen and nectar from flowers for their feed. The foraging behaviour of bees depends on the profitability of nectar and pollen sources and the needs of the colony. Each forager modulates its behaviour in relation to the profitability of nectar source – the more profitable the source, the higher the intensity of foraging activity and dancing and the lower the probability of abandoning the source. Without comparing sources bee individually calculate the absolute profitability of a source. Collective nectar and pollen source selection by a colony of bees is decentralized; it is a process of natural selection whereby foragers from more profitable nectar sources continue to visit these sources over a longer period and over time recruit bees from less profitable sources. In a foraging season, bees collect roughly 20 – 30 kg pollen and 125 kg nectar which translates to between 1,125,000 and 4,000,000 visits to flowers. Inspired by the foraging behaviour of bees the foraging bees optimization algorithm mimics the foraging of flowers by bees for pollen and nectar and the collective natural selection of more profitable nectar sources over poor ones. After initialization, the algorithm loops through three phases, waggle work and withdraw. A large number of flowers are initialized randomly in the problem space. During the waggle phase bees are recruited to patches with profitable nectar sources. In the work phase new flowers are discovered and memorized by bees. In the withdraw phase bees eliminate unprofitable flowers and recalibrate patches for recruitment. The proposed algorithm is tested on three unimodal and seven multimodal benchmark functions with encouraging and competitive results. Keywords: Foraging Bee Optimization algorithm, Optimization Problems, Nature Inspired Algorithm, Swarm Intelligence, Benchmarks. References 1 J. J. M. van der Steen (2015) “The Foraging Honey Bee” The British Bee Journal, February 2 Thomas D. Seeley, Scott Camazine and James Sneyd (1991) “Collective Decision-Making in Honey Bees: How Colonies Choose Among Nectar Sources” Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, Springer-Verlag, 28: 277-290, 42 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria The Foraging Ants Optimization Algorithm Ebun P. Fasina [email protected] Babatunde A. Sawyerr Oluwatoni P. Olatunji [email protected] [email protected] Machine Intelligence Research Group Department of Computer Sciences University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria The introduction of the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm in 1992 for solving discrete optimization problems has motivated researchers to develop new optimization algorithms inspired by different metaphors of ant behaviour. New ant-inspired algorithms have been developed to solve optimization problems with continuous search domains. Unfortunately most of these algorithms do not mimic the behaviour of ants closely and this may explain some of their limitations when applied to problems with continuous search spaces. Major limitations of these algorithms are premature convergence and limited scalability i.e. as the dimensions of the problem increases the performance of these algorithms drop dramatically. In this work, a novel ant-inspired optimization algorithm is proposed for solving optimization problems with continuous search spaces. The algorithm named Foraging Ant Optimization (FAO) algorithm mimics the foraging behaviour of the Pachycondyla apicalis ant species. These ants adopt a simple and efficient strategy; individual ants from the colony hunt for prey by revisiting good hunting sites around the nest. Periodically the colony is relocated to the region of hunting sites that have been found to be rich in prey. In the FAO algorithm, a population of 𝑁 ants search in ranges (subspaces of the problem space) and leave a trail of pheromone connecting the best hunting site with the nest. The quality of the hunting site is represented the quantity of pheromone deposited on the trail. The trail of ant 𝑎𝑖 is a unit vector 𝒗𝑖 pointing to the hunting site from the nest and the quantity of pheromone is represented by the magnitude 𝑃𝑖 . At the end of each hunting expedition the nest has 𝑁 hunting site vectors 𝑃1 𝒗1 , 𝑃2 𝒗2 , … , 𝑃𝑁 𝒗𝑁 pointing to 𝑁 hunting sites. Using different strategies based on hunting site vectors ants are recruited to the best performing hunting site and new promising hunting sites. Results from experiments on ten benchmarks indicate that the FAO is competitive. However, there are still opportunities for improvements as the algorithm has only been tested successfully in small dimensions. Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Pachycondyla apicalis Ant species, Premature Convergence, Foraging Ant Optimization (FAO), Pheromone . 43 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Poisson-Mixed Models for Count Data; An Application to Risk Analysis (Accident Data in Nigeria) Samuel Adewale Aderoju [email protected] Department of Statistics and Mathematical Sciences, Malete, Kwara,Nigeria Emmanuel Teju Jolayemi [email protected] Department of Statistics, University of Ilorin, P.M.B. 1515, Ilorin, Nigeria Generalized linear models (GLMs) for count data were used because it is necessary that the count data involving number of casualty on our road cannot be used as a metric; the focus was on Poisson, Poisson-Gamma as well as Com-Poisson models. The assumption of equi-dispersion was tested and was rejected, indicating that Poisson regression would not be appropriate. Instead the Poisson-Gamma regression and Com-Poisson would be more appropriate. The Likelihood Ratio (LR), Deviance and Pearson residual chi-squared statistics as well as information criteria were used to test the assumptions of the underlying distributions. However, the result of the research reflects that number of people killed through road accident is not function of number of vehicles involved. Rather the number of cases of road accidents contributes to the number of people killed. Road accident data of Lagos State, Nigeria for twelve consecutive years from 1996 to 2007, primarily collected by the Lagos Bureau of Statistics (LBS), were used in this study. Keywords: Poisson, Poisson-Gamma, Com-Poisson, Over-Dispersion, Under-Dispersed, EquiDispersion, Generalized Linear Model, Accident Data. 44 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria A Statistical Analysis of Reported Cases of Examination Malpractice in Nigeria Johndamascene C. Imoh A.N.P Uchegbulem Department of Mathematics/Statistics Imo State Polytechnic Umuagwo-Ohaji, Owerri, Imo, Nigeria The effect of two factors (nature of malpractice and state), in the data on May/June WASSCE Examination malpractice (2004-2014) were studied independently of each other in this research work. The nature of malpractice taken as a factor has 8 levels (1,2,…8), and the analysis showed that there is a significant difference in the degree of malpractice for the levels of May/June WASSCE examination malpractice. The state at 37 level (1,2,….37), Abuja inclusive equally showed that there is a significant difference in the degree of malpractice. The data was measured in indices. One- way analysis of variance was used for the analysis. The result shows that the Exam malpractice indices differ significantly among the nature of malpractices and states. However, the third level of nature of malpractice (collusion) gave the highest mean malpractice index followed by the 1 st level (Bringing in of foreign materials) while the 33rd level of state (Rivers) gave the highest mean malpractice index followed by the 11th level (Delta). The assumptions in the model used namely constant variance, normality, independence were examined graphically with the help of the residuals and fitted values, and were found to be violated. However, the non parametric alternative to the ANOVA f-test (Kruskal Wallis Test) that does not require the validity of any distributional assumption was directly applied to the data above, and the results were valid as before namely; that the degree of examination malpractice differs significantly among the nature of malpractice and states. Keywords: Nature Of Malpractice, Constant Variance, Normality, Independence, ANOVA f-test 45 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria An Analytic Re-Examination of Foreign Trade Management and Economic Growth in Nigeria using Factor Analysis Approach Olanrewaju Adeniyi Damilola Distance Learning Institute University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria. The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has been examined by many scholars using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method. However, the peculiar limitations of the OLS approach necessitated this study and the factor analysis approach was employed. A main benefit of factor analysis is that with just a few components, it can be used to explain a large percentage of total variance, thus compressing similar variables with common factors together. Secondary data between 1980 and 2013 was obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria and Nigerian Bureau of Statistics for analysis. The variables considered in this study are foreign direct investment, foreign exchange, population, total exports, total imports, gross domestic product, inflation rate, per capita income, economic openness, unemployment rate and real interest rate. The Bartlett’s test of Sphericity was significant (p<0.05) and the collected data was deemed appropriate for factor analysis. In addition, the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy with a KMO index of 0.758 was considered suitable for factor analysis, as it was above the recommended minimum value of 0.60. A principal component analysis was performed using the Varimax with Kaiser normalisation rotation method, which converged in three iterations but with two components. The 1st factor had an Eigenvalue of 7.748 representing 70.44% of the total variance while the 2nd factor had an Eigenvalue of 1.939. Both 1st and 2nd factors account for 88.07% of the total variance. Since other factors had Eigenvalue below 1.000, it implied that two distinct factors were extracted in the study. The scree plot also began to level off after the second point, which suggested that all other additional factors after the second factor/plot explain less variance than a single variable. This means two factors are extracted. The first factor is referred to as ‘efficient-economy driver’ while the second factor is called the ‘economy-growth clasper’. Implications of the findings are discussed. Keywords: Factor Analysis, Bartlett’s Test, Eigenvalue. 46 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria Unsteady MHD Boundary-Layer Slip-Flow and Mass Transfer over a Convectively Heated Stretching Cylinder Immersed in Porous Medium with Waste Discharge Concentration A. Adeniyan [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Lagos, Akoka, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria S. S. Okoya [email protected] The office of Pastor Eunoch Adejare Adeboye Chair, Department of Mathematics, University of Lagos, Akoka, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria The unsteady two-dimensional MHD boundary-layer stagnation point flow and mass transfer over a convectively heated stretching cylinder encompassed in a saturated porous medium is presented here by taking into account the Ohmic dissipation, transient dispersion of a pollutant spewed by an external source in the presence of a uniform transverse magnetic field and stress work. The laminar flow of viscous incompressible and electrically conducting fluid exposed to a uniform transverse magnetic field is assumed to be Newtonian and ascribable to the Darcian law with Boussinesq approximation. The nonlinear governing partial differential equations of the flow model are converted into a set of ordinary differential equations by means of appropriate similarity transformations and consequently solved numerically using the forth order Runge-Kutta method with a shooting technique. The results are depicted graphically for some salient values of the emerging physical parameters for flow, temperature and concentration fields. In addition, the skinfriction coefficient, the heat and pollution mass concentration rates are sorted out in tabular form, analyzed and discussed. Authentication of our numerical results has been carried out through comparison with previous study in the literature indicating a positive affirmation. Keywords: Forced Convection, Permeable Hollow Cylinder, Porous Medium, Pollutant Concentration, Ohmic Dissipation, Convective Boundary Condition. 47 | P a g e ICAPTA 2016 March 9 – 12 2016, Lagos, Nigeria An Application of Conjoint Analysis to Passenger Preference Assessment within the Nigerian Domestic Airline Industry Oladipupo Ajeyalemi [email protected] Distance Learning Institute, University of Lagos, Akoka, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria This study seeks to understand why many airlines have failed or become defunct in Nigeria and how the available institutional environment in Nigeria may have affected the organizational performance of airlines. Some of the research objectives of this study are to discover what is happening, why they are happening, examine new perspectives and comprehend different insights as it affects the aviation industry, especially due to the dynamic and complex nature of the industry and circumstances surrounding the industry. When it concerns the revelation or comprehension of a phenomenon, such as the constant massive failure of various airline companies, then it is necessary to rely on or employ the use of semi-structured and in-depth interviews (Bryman & Bell, 2011; Saunders, Lewis & Thornhill, 2007). Since this study is essentially interested in probing meanings and finding explanations to the phenomenon of airline performance or non-performance in Nigeria, it became imperative to undertake a qualitative study by conducting semi-structured interviews (Saunders et al., 2007). Keywords: Conjoint Analysis, Airlines. 48 | P a g e
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