Vallamsundar and Lin 1 Using MOVES and AERMOD models for PM2.5 Conformity Hot-Spot Air Quality Modeling Suriya Vallamsundar, PhD Student Department of Civil and Materials Engineering University of Illinois at Chicago 842 W. Taylor Street (M/C 246) Chicago, Illinois 60607-7023 Phone: 224-610-6289 Email: [email protected] Jie (Jane) Lin*, Ph.D. Associate Professor Department of Civil and Materials Engineering Institute for Environmental Science and Policy University of Illinois at Chicago 842 W. Taylor Street (M/C 246) Chicago, Illinois 60607-7023 Phone: 312-996-3068 Fax: 312-996-2426 Email: [email protected] *Corresponding Author Submitted to TRB’s 2012 Annual Meeting Word Count: Text Tables (3), Figures(5) Total TRB 2012 Annual Meeting = 5294 = 2000 = 7294 Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 2 ABSTRACT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 On March 10, 2006, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) published a final rule requiring project level particulate matter (PM) transportation conformity analysis in nonattainment and maintenance areas for “projects of air quality concern”. EPA has released a public draft on “Transportation Conformity Guidance for Quantitative Hot-spot Analyses in PM2.5 and PM10 Nonattainment and Maintenance Areas”, in which MOVES and EMFAC in California are designated as the official mobile emission models. The official air quality models are AERMOD and CAL3QHCR. The public draft released by EPA requires detailed handling of emission and air quality data which are new for state DOTs and MPOs. This paper showcases the use of MOVES and AERMOD for transportation conformity analysis with priority given to the setup and running of the models with their respective data inputs in accordance with EPA’s transportation conformity guidance. Details of the input data preparation for MOVES and AERMOD, MOVES emission factor generation, sensitivity test results from MOVES, and importance of interagency consultation process are presented. This showcase is an extended effort for better understanding the conformity process and setting up the models. Results from a real world case study are presented as an example of the conformity process. TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 3 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 1. INTRODUCTION Particulate matter (PM) is fine particles of solid matter suspended in liquid or gas. Based on the size, PM can be broadly classified into two groups: (i) coarser particles with sizes ranging from 2.5 to 10 µm. (ii) finer particles with sizes up to 2.5 µm. There are many studies in literature showing a strong association between PM2.5 and adverse health outcomes (1, 2). Finer particles can have worse health effects because they are made of more toxic metals and cancer causing organic compounds and can easily pass through the respiratory system due to their size (3). Kappos et al. (4) found increased exposure to fine PM leads to cardiovascular, respiratory problems, infant mortality and affects the human immune system. Transportation sources are one of the major sources contributing to PM emissions. The latest national database summary prepared by EPA for PM2.5 emissions by source sector shows that road dust accounts for about 21.5% and on-road vehicles account for 3% for calendar year 2005 (5). In 2006, EPA published a final rule requiring project level hot spot PM transportation conformity analysis for “projects of air quality concern” in non-attainment and maintenance areas (6). According to EPA Guidance (7), “projects of air quality concern” are those projects that involve significant levels of diesel traffic leading to high PM concentrations or any other projects that are identified by state SIP as a localized air quality concern. Hot spot analysis is an estimation and comparison of likely future localized PM pollutant concentration with the current PM concentration and National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). This is mainly to ensure that current and future transportation projects meet the Clear Air Act conformity requirements (6). The standards to be attained and maintained for PM2.5 for 24 hour period are 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 35µg/m and 15µg/m for annual period. The new PM Hot Spot analyses requires detailed modeling of PM emissions and concentration levels for transportation projects. These requirements are new for state DOTs and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) and there are not many studies in literature to help them in this modeling process. The objective of this study is to provide insights into PM hot spot modeling process with respect to input data preparation, model setup and performance, importance of interagency consultation process, which in this case involves USEPA, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT), Illinois EPA (IEPA) and Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP). A real world case study of I-80 and I-55 interchange near Joliet, Illinois is presented for showcasing the proposed work. The following section gives the background of MOVES and AERMOD models followed by a description of relevant work in literature. The fourth and fifth sections describe the model setup and MOVES sensitivity tests. Finally the sixth section describes the case study followed by conclusion in the last section. 3 3 2. BACKGROUND 2.1 MOVES Emission Model The Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is the new generation EPA’s regulatory mobile source emissions model. MOVES serves as a single comprehensive system for estimating emissions from both on-road and non-road mobile sources, and replaces MOBILE as the officially approved model for developing state implementation plans (SIPs) and regional or project-level transportation conformity analyses (8). There are a number of key features which sets MOVES far superior compared to its predecessor model namely MOBILE. These include modal based approach to estimate emissions, availability of three scales of analyses, incorporation of MySQL relational database, ability to TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 4 model alternative fuel and vehicle types, estimation of total emissions and emission factors, sophisticated approach to estimate GHG and energy consumption, inclusion of a number of pollutants and emission processes. MOVES follows a “modal approach” for emission factor estimation and calculates emissions using a set of modal functions. MOVES applies a “binning” approach wherein each vehicle activity is binned or distributed according to different factors depending on the emission process and pollutant. After distribution of total activity into different bins, MOVES assigns an emission rate for each unique combination of source and operating mode bins and the emission rates are aggregated for each vehicle type. A few correction factors are applied to the emission rates to adjust for the influence of temperature, air conditioning and fuel effects to obtain the total emissions (8). 2.2 Air Dispersion Models Air dispersion models are used to determine how air-borne pollutants disperse in the atmosphere and how their concentration dilutes over distance and time. EPA recommends using either AERMOD or CAL3QHCR for highway and intersection projects, but using only AERMOD for transit, freight, terminal projects and projects that involve both highway/ intersection and terminals and/ or nearby sources (7). Both AERMOD and CAL3QHCR are Gaussian based models and are derived for steady state conditions. The dispersion in Gaussian models are estimated with a Gaussian equation which incorporates factors that account for the rate the plume disperses in each direction, reflection from the ground and plume rise (9). AERMOD was developed as a replacement for EPA’s Industrial Source Complex Model by incorporating the planetary boundary layer (PBL) (10). PBL is the turbulent air layer next to the earth’s surface which is affected by the surface heating, drag, turbulence and friction due to its contact with the planetary surface (11). There are two types of PBL, namely (1) Convective boundary layer (CBL) driven by surface heating (2) Stable boundary layer (SBL) driven by surface cooling. AERMOD utilizes a Gaussian distribution in both horizontal and vertical direction in SBL similar to CAL3QHCR but uses a Gaussian distribution in the horizontal but biGaussian in the vertical direction and the concentration is calculated as a weighted average of two distributions in CBL (10). 3. RELEVANT WORK With MOVES being a new model, there have been few studies in literature assessing MOVES performance. Studies (12, 13) compared the macroscopic scale of MOVES and MOBILE showed that the difference in emission estimates is attributed to inclusion of alternative fuel types, newer technology vehicles in fleet mix by MOVES. Song et al. (14) compared macroscopic scale of MOVES with EMFAC and showed that CO2, CH4 emission difference to depend on vehicle activity and base emission rates respectively. Vallamsundar et al. (15) compared mesoscopic scale of MOVES with MOBILE and found lower estimates from MOBILE compared to MOVES which is attributed to underlying base emission rates. There are a number of studies in literature mostly related to the sensitivity testing and performance of AERMOD. Zou et al. (16) evaluated the sensitivity of AERMOD and found the effect of urban/ rural dispersion coefficients, terrain conditions to have limited influence on model’s performance. Studies (17, 18, 19) compared the effect of each surface characteristic on AERMOD concentrations and found the Bowen ratio to have little effect and surface roughness to have the greatest effect on model concentrations. Schroeder et al., (20) found out the location and type of land use around meteorological data location to significantly affect surface roughness TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 5 length. It is worth noting that most of these studies have focused mostly on industrial sources and hence there is a gap in the current literature on roadway sources. With respect to model comparison, a number of studies compare AERMOD with its predecessor ISC. Studies (21, 22) found that compared to ISC, AERMOD generally tends to generate lower concentration results. Chen et al. (23) compared CALINE4, CAL3QHCR and AERMOD for near road PM2.5 and found CALINE, CAL3QHCR results matched the observed concentrations moderately well but AERMOD under estimated PM2.5. Donaldson et al. (24) found that CALPUFF predictions of fugitive PM lower than that of AERMOD using a combination of area and volume sources. AERMOD can model roadway line source as a series of volume or area sources (25). According to (26), volume source are more appropriate for line sources, which have some initial plume depth (rail lines, conveyor belts) and area sources are more appropriate for near ground level sources with no plume rise (viaduct, storage piles). Schewe et al. (27) performed a comparison between area and volume source types for fugitive PM concentrations for a hypothetical study location in Evansville, Indiana .The authors found higher concentrations from volume source characterization compared to area sources which they attributed to the way each source characterization calculates the initial plume dispersion and transport. EPA study (28) found that modeling roadway line sources as volume sources is indistinguishable from modeling them as area sources with an initial vertical dispersion parameter. This study is motivated to provide an overview of the PM hot spot process with detailed explanation of each step in the process. The scope of this study is restricted to modeling annual PM2.5 for highway and arterial projects in the two non-attainment areas for annual PM2.5 in Illinois namely Chicago and Metro-East. MOVES emission factors are developed for a range of scenarios which are discussed in section 4. The roadway sources are modeled using AERMOD Area source approach. The EFs obtained from MOVES are converted into a format compatible for AERMOD’s area source characterization. Using the traffic activity, local specific data and emission factors from MOVES, AERMOD computes the pollutant concentration. Details on AERMOD model set up are discussed in section 5. 4. EMISSION MODELING MOVES emission factors are developed for a range of scenarios in Chicago and Metro East areas based on interagency consultation process. The first subsection describes the input data; second subsection presents the sensitivity tests; the third subsection presents the details of the EF generation. 4.1 MOVES Input Data Most of the MOVES input data for the project scale was obtained from IEPA and IDOT. Table 1 lists the input data utilized for MOVES Project scale. TABLE1 Inputs data for MOVES Project scale Input Item Description Source Link Roadway link characteristics. 1. Link Length 2. Traffic volume for each link 3. Average traffic speed 4. Grade Link Drive Schedule/ Vehicle Activity. Either of Average speed is used for Opmode Distribution average speed, link drive describing the vehicle activity. TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 6 schedule, or operating mode distribution should be incorporated. Speed values are decided based on sensitivity test results (Section 4.2) Link Source Type Fraction Vehicle fleet composition All 13 source types are used. Source Type Age Distribution Vehicle age distribution Meteorology Temperature and humidity values Fuel Supply Fuel supply parameters and associated market share for each fuel I/M Program Inspection-maintenance program parameters for nonattainment areas Separate age distribution data for Chicago and MetroEast were obtained in MOBILE format from IEPA and converted into MOVES format using EPA converters (29). Hourly temperature and relative humidity values were obtained from IEPA in AERMET format and was extracted to be used for MOVES. MOVES default fuel data was used with changes made to Reid Vapor Pressure, Sulfur content based on local data. Default MOVES database. To note, there is no PM benefit from I/M 177 4.2 Sensitivity Tests 178 179 180 The first sensitivity test was performed to test the effect of using the same meteorological data for future years due to the lack of future meteorological data. The second test was performed to decide the average speed values to be used for EF lookup table. 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 4.2.1 Effect of Temperature Through interagency consultation process, it was decided to use the same meteorological data for both MOVES and AERMOD for maintaining consistency. Meteorological data was obtained from IEPA for the latest available calendar years 2005 to 2009 in AERMET format and average of the 5 years data was used in MOVES. Sensitivity test was performed for analyzing the effect of using this average meteorological data for future years. Historic trend for temperature difference over the past 30 years from year 1980 to 2010 in Chicago (30) was found to vary between 0.2 and 3. Based on the temperature differences, sensitivity test were performed for 0.5 o F and 3 oF increases in temperature and EFs are found to increase by 2% and 9% respectively. Further EFs increased by the same percentage for all vehicle types and speed values. However the temperature increase had no effect on the following MOVES vehicle types: single unit and combination short-haul and long-haul trucks and intercity bus. Based on these results, it was decided to use the average of 5 year meteorological data for future years. 4.2.2 Effect of Average Speed Initially the EFs were estimated for the speed range from 0mph to 70mph at every 5mph intervals. Sensitivity test was performed by comparing EFs calculated by MOVES and those obtained by interpolation between the speed intervals for all vehicle types. Fig 1 shows the sensitivity test results. The results show that for speed range of 10 – 15 mph, 30 – 35 mph and 45 TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 7 – 50 mph the difference between MOVES and interpolation are the highest especially for trucks. The reason for the highest speed difference observed for trucks requires further investigation in the future. Based on sensitivity test results, the above speed ranges were fine tuned to every 1mph interval and rest at 5mph interval. This results in a total of 21 average speed values. FIGURE 1 Sensitivity test for all vehicle types and average speed values 4.3 PM2.5 Emission Factor Generation The range of scenarios considered for generating MOVES EFs is shown in Fig.2. The time span covered is for 4 months (January, April, July, October) that are representative of the seasons and 4 distinct time periods (morning peak, midday, evening peak, and overnight) in accordance with (7). EFs calculated for a typical weekday are for calendar years 2011 to 2040. The speed range is from 0mph to 70mph and intervals between them are chosen based on the sensitivity test results. The EFs obtained from MOVES are in terms of grams/mile/veh/hr. AERMOD requires a composite EF (in grams/sec/m2 in the area source approach) based on traffic volume and EF corresponding to each vehicle type in the fleet mix. MOVES was executed for the range of scenarios as shown in Fig.2 for a generic roadway link of length 1mile and traffic volume of 13 (1 for each vehicle type). The EFs obtained from MOVES for this generic roadway link can be used to calculate the EFs off model for any real world roadway link for the same scenario (same area, facility, year, season, time period, vehicle type, average speed). The following steps are proven, after numerous model experiments and consultation with the US EPA, to be able to convert the EFs generated for a generic roadway link to any real world roadway link in terms of grams/sec/m2 for AERMOD area source modeling. TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 8 Step 1: EFs for a generic roadway link of 1mile length, traffic volume of 13, gives EFs in terms of grams/mile/vehicle/hr which is assigned A Step 2: Multiply A with actual traffic volume in the real world roadway link gives B in terms of grams/ mile/ hour Step 3: Multiply B with actual link/ source length in miles gives C in terms of grams/hour Step 4: Divide C by 3600 to obtain D in terms of grams/second Step 5: Divide D by source area to obtain E in grams/ sec/ m2 Note that an alternative approach is to run MOVES each time for each project of interest and obtain the EFs specific to the project. This requires running MOVES each time for a different project. Using our approach described above (i.e., a generic EF database + off model adjustment) requires running MOVES limited number of times, which saves computational time. 5. AIR DISPERSION MODELING SETUP The two regulatory components for AERMOD are (1) Meteorological preprocessor (AERMET) (2) Terrain data preprocessor (AERMAP). According to the EPA guidelines (7), meteorological data for PM hot spot analyses could be site specific data which requires one year of meteorological data. If using off-site data, five consecutive years of meteorological data is required. For this study, meteorological data was obtained from IEPA for calendar years 2005 to 2009 in AERMET format. The total percentage of missing data for the 5years meteorological data was found to be 2.13%. Only if the number of hours of missing meteorological data exceeds 10% of the total number of hours for a given model run, user should refer to (31) for ways to process the missing data. The averaging period is annual as both Chicago and MetroEast are designated as non-attainment areas for annual PM2.5. AERMOD can model roadway line source as a series of volume or area sources (25). For this study AREA and AREPOLYGON sources are used. Parameters required for area source modeling are listed below: (a) Source dimensions - Length of the sides in meters. Sources are defined based on (1) travel activity which corresponds to volume and speed, (2) physical dimensions and (3) orientation. All three affect the EF in each source. For example, a single source can be used for a roadway link if they have the same travel activity and no change in geometry. However for a curved link with same travel activity, more than one AERMOD source is required to be used to preserve the geometry. (b) Area source emission factor in grams/ sec/ m2 (c) The initial vertical dispersion height is assumed to be about 1.7 times the average vehicle height, to account for the effects of vehicle induced turbulence. The source release height is the height at which wind effectively begins to affect the plume and is estimated from the midpoint of the initial vertical dimension. For a combination of vehicles with different heights, these dimensions are computed using a traffic volume/ emissions weighted average (7). (d) Receptor characterization – receptors are placed at a height of 1.8m above the ground. Around the sources, receptors are placed with finer spacing (e.g., 10-25 meters) and with wider spacing (e.g., 50-100 meters) farther from a source. TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 9 FIGURE 2 Scenarios considered in MOVES EF Generation Background concentration includes emissions from all sources other than project which affects concentrations in the project area. The concentration obtained from AERMOD should be added with the background concentration to get the total representative concentration called the design value which describes the future air quality concentration in a project area that can be compared to a NAAQS. There are several options for obtaining the background concentration and they can be found in (7). 6. CASE STUDY: DESCRIPTION AND RESULTS 6.1 Description The case study consists of I-80 and I-55 interchange near Joliet, Illinois (Fig. 3). Both highways extending 0.5 mi (804.7m) from center of the interchange, 4 inclined and circular ramps connecting the highways are considered to be emission sources. The length of the inclined ramps is 0.5 mi (804.7m) and circumference of the circular ramps is 0.4 mi (643.7 m). The distance from intersection of interchange to inclined ramps is 0.35 mi (563.3 m). It is assumed that all inclined ramps are of the same dimensions and all circular ramps are of same dimensions. TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 The design speeds for highways, inclined and circular ramps are 60mph (26.82m/s), 45mph (20.12m/s) and 40mph (17.88m/s) respectively. The pollutant estimated is PM2.5 for annual averaging period for calendar year 2011. The traffic volume data was obtained from IDOT. The fleet composition data from traffic counters consists of vehicle split in 3 broad categories namely 4tire, single unit and multiple unit. Based on the association between HPMS and MOVES vehicle types, these 3 categories were mapped into MOVES vehicle types. MOVES vehicle type split under each category was obtained from local data from CMAP. Table 2 shows the overall traffic volume corresponding to each time period. Table 2 Traffic Volumes Description 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 10 Morning Midday Evening Overnight I55 NB On Ramp from I80 EB 637 581 557 173 I55 NB On Ramp from I80 WB 382 787 913 165 I55 North of I80 – N Leg 2591 2829 2847 694 I55 North of I80 – S Leg 2323 2889 2881 740 I55 SB On Ramp from I80 EB 124 103 105 30 I55 SB On Ramp from I80 WB 447 649 737 160 I55 South of I80 – N leg 1930 2466 2486 547 I55 South of I80 – S leg 2273 2229 2121 608 I80 East of I55- E leg 1485 2547 2912 587 I80 East of I55- W leg 2945 1893 1963 619 I80 EB On Ramp from I55 NB 841 598 615 177 I80 EB On Ramp from I55 SB 1016 486 474 177 I80 WB On Ramp from I55 NB 105 110 108 30 I80 WB On Ramp from I55 SB 441 618 729 159 I80 West of I55- E leg 1209 1839 2086 449 I80 West of I55- W leg 1817 1482 1536 465 MOVES default split of fuel types for each vehicle type was used except for transit buses where the fuel type was changed to 100% diesel based on local data. Composite EF was computed from MOVES EF lookup table and off model adjustments as discussed in section 4.3. AREA sources are used for the highways and AREAPOLYGON sources for circular and inclined ramps. In accordance with (7), receptors are placed at a finer resolution of 25m near all the sources and spacing is increased to 50m and 100m as the distance from the source increases. The first line of receptors is placed at a distance of 50 ft from the edge of the roadway to allow for the right of way distance. Receptor placement for annual PM2.5 is in accordance with the requirement (7) of being population oriented and representing community wide air quality effect. A total of 36 sources and 1168 receptors are used for the case study. Table 3 gives the source and TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 307 308 309 310 11 receptor characterization for the case study. Case study location and AERMOD setup of sources and receptors are shown in Fig. 3. TABLE 3 Source and Receptor Characterization for I80 & I55 interchange near Joliet Highway I80 Total length = 1649.34m (2 lanes of traffic in each direction) Width in each direction = 7.3m Total no of sources for I80 = 4 The two ways of traffic are physically separated from each other and have been incorporated in the area source modeling Highway I55 Total length = 1649.94m (3 lanes of traffic in each direction) Width in each direction = 11m Total no of sources for I55 = 4 No median between the lanes Inclined Ramps Total length = 800m (Same dimensions for all 4 ramps) Width = 5m Total no of sources for all ramps = 4 Circular Ramps Total length = 946m (Same dimensions for all 4 ramps) Width = 5m Total no of sources for all ramps = 24 Receptor Setting − First set of receptors are placed with a spacing of 25m for 100m − Second set of receptors are placed with a spacing of 50m for next 200m − Third set of receptors are placed with a spacing of 100m for the next 500m Receptor Height = 1.8m Total no of receptors = 1168 TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 12 FIGURE 3 Location and AERMOD setup of case study 6.2 Results The most recent monitoring data for Chicago and Metro-East for calendar years 2008 to 2010 was obtained from IEPA. The background concentration values range from 9-10 ug/m3 in the rural and far suburban portions of the nonattainment area, to 12-13 ug/m3 in the peak areas. After interagency consultation, it was decided that Elgin, Aurora and Braidwood sites in the Chicago metropolitan area be used to spatially interpolate (using the distance weighted approach) the background values for the case study region. This approach results in the background concentration of 10.41 ug/m3 for case study. TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 13 The prevailing wind rose diagram for the case study region is shown in Fig. 4. The average wind speed is 8.66 knots and dominant wind direction is from SW to NE. The composite EFs for case study vary between [5.7E-08 to 6.87E-07] for circular ramps, [7.2E-08 to 9.9E-07] for inclined ramps, [1.5E-07 to 8.1E-07] for I55 and [2.2E-07 to 1.22E-06] for I80. The annual PM2.5 concentration results from AERMOD without the background concentration is shown in Fig. 5a. The location of the highest top ten concentrations in red circles is shown in Fig. 5b. The concentrations are found to be higher near the sources and the concentration gradually decreases as the distance from the source increases. The highest top ten concentrations are obtained at locations where the traffic volumes are the highest. In addition, these concentrations are located in the NE quadrant which matches with the direction of the prevailing winds from SW to NE for case study location. The highest concentration obtained without the background concentration is 0.45ug/m3 in the NE quadrant. This highest annual average concentration combined with background concentration is 10.85ug/m3. This is well below the conformity standards for annual PM2.5. 337 338 339 340 341 TRB 2012 Annual Meeting FIGURE 4 Wind rose diagram using AERMET data for case study (Source: WRPLOT, Lakes Environmental Software) Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 14 342 343 344 345 346 FIGURE 5 (a) PM2.5 concentrations without background concentration (b) Location of highest top ten concentrations TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 15 7. CONCLUSION This study is a first undertaking by a state DOT to implement the PM hotspot analyses in accordance with the EPA guidance. Based on the literature review, it is clear that careful selection of input parameters for both MOVES and AERMOD is required to avoid possible variation in the concentration results. All input parameters for MOVES and AERMOD models are decided through interagency consultation process as recommended by EPA (7). The objective of this study is to provide insights into PM hot spot modeling process with respect to input data preparation for emission and air quality models, sensitivity testing of MOVES and model set up. Detailed explanation of each step is provided to help MPO’s and practitioners to better understand the entire conformity process. PM2.5 conformity process is conducted for a real world case study near Joliet, Illinois. The highest concentrations are obtained at locations where the traffic volume are the highest and in the direction of prevailing winds. Future steps include performing sensitivity tests on AERMOD performance with respect to (1) number of sources to strike a balance between accuracy and computation time, (2) other project types, (3) comparison between AREA and VOLUME sources in AERMOD. The PM Hot-Spot Modeling was a steep learning curve and many challenges were encountered during the process. Some of the important challenges encountered in air quality modeling include (1) choosing between CAL3QHCR and AERMOD models as both are recommended by EPA for highway projects (2) choosing between AREA and VOLUME sources for modeling roadway line segments (3) placement of receptors (4) boundary of the urban area required for calculating the urban population to account for urban heat island effect. The urban population of Chicago and default surface roughness length of 1m was used for case study. The sensitivity of urban population was tested by changing it to population of Chicago-NapervilleJoliet Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and the difference in concentration was found to be negligible. Challenges in emission modeling include obtaining the fleet composition for all 13 MOVES vehicle types as most of traffic counters give data on a broad classification of vehicles. The above challenges and other issues involved with the input data preparation were solved through the interagency consultation process. The interagency consultation process is an important tool for performing any project-level conformity determinations and hot-spot analyses. Technical review panel (TRP) for this study consists of representations from IDOT, FHWA, EPA, IEPA, CMAP. The different agencies were helpful in solving technical issues and evaluating the appropriate methods and assumptions to be used in the hot-spot analyses. Project meetings were held monthly with the TRP and various technical and regulatory issues were discussed at the meetings. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research is funded by IDOT through the Illinois Center for Transportation. We thank our technical review panel members for their valuable inputs and comments: Michael Claggett, Cecilia Ho and Matt Fuller of FHWA, Walt Zyznieuski of IDOT, Michael Leslie of USEPA Region V, Mike Rogers, Sam Long, and Rob Kaleel of IEPA, and Ross Patronsky of CMAP. We have received generous technical support from Chris Dresser of USEPA, Matt Will of IEPA, Song Bai of Sonoma Tech, Inc. TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal. Vallamsundar and Lin 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 16 REFERENCES [1] Englert, N., (2004) Fine Particles and Human Health—A Review of Epidemiological Studies. 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