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1
13
2
5
6
14
15
3
7
16
8
17
18
4
9
19
20
10
21
22
11
23
24
12
25
26
27
28
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4
18
8
5
22
14
16
7
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21
2
3
6
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10
17
19
11
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20
15
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HISTORY
SHUNT
FIO2
MINVOLSET
VENTMACH
KINKEDTUBE
DISCONNECT
VENTTUBE
VENTLUNG
VENTALV
PRESS
MINVOL
ARTCO2
EXPCO2
ERRCAUTER
INSUFFANESTH
HR
HRSAT
CATECHOL
HREKG
INTUBATION
PVSAT
SAO2
ERRLOWOUTPUT
HRBP
PULMEMBOLUS
PAP
TPR
ANAPHYLAXIS
STROKEVOLUME
HYPOVOLEMIA
LVEDVOLUME
CO
LVFAILURE
PCWP
CVP
BP
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
sampling marginal
loopy marginal
Ost¹!jQnm\
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0.6
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
0
0
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0.2
0.4
0.6
exact marginal
0.8
1
0.2
0.4
0.6
exact marginal
0.8
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
sampling belief
loopy belief
1
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
0
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0.2
0.4
0.6
correct marginals
0.8
1
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R 0.2
0.4
0.6
correct marginals
0.8
1
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1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
sampling marginal
loopy marginal
1
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
~
0.2
0.4
0.6
true marginal
0.8
0
0
1
·
0.2
0.4
0.6
true marginal
0.8
1
1
0.9
sampling marginal
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.4
0.6
true marginal
0.8
1
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
posterior
loopy belief
r
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hQnmf!h³~¥¹†~kmstf!uS…9-‚·.tst„!l¨{st±Qf>f>´iÁlost¹!±>kms{uY¹Áqstky± ,!‹.‹x¦~gihY{l¨x…Q~uY´2-‚r.qtst„!lotst±Qf>f>´ Á`lost¹.±†kmstuQ¹Áqstkm±2*‹.‹!‹x²~¥gihQtloxXÊ
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
0
0
~
·
Ost¹!jQnml-ŠQÕ -B~. Ë ±Qlg-~¥ny¹!stu³~¥,h³f.xykyl¨nystf!nmx}f!nkm±Qnyl¨l-f¥}0ky±QluQf>´Qlox stuÎky±Yl-Ü Û° Éyv Ë uQlok]Áf!ny„@Ê'ê0f!kmlikm±Qlitstgistk0r¨|†r¨{l
·clo±³~Xw>stf!nÊ-‚·9. Ë ±QlqloÇQ~r¨k`g:~ny¹.stu³~txS~nmlqnylohYnyloxmlou>kylo´:·>|km±Qlqrostnyr¨{l¨xd>ky±YlqlouQ´Qxf}@ky±Ql ¶mlonynmf!n·³~nmxyºnmlohQnmloxylou>kqkm±Qlqtf†f.h>|
g-~¥ny¹.s{uc~tx~kqky±Yl‚~xykk]Áf s{kmlon²~¥kystf!uYxÊ,ØÎl0f.uQt| hQtf!kqkm±Ql´Qstxyl~¥xylox&Áq±Qstr²±:±³~¥´:uQf!u>É]uQlo¹.ts{¹.st·Qtlqh³f.xykyl¨nystf!n&hQnyf.·³~·Qsttstk]|†Ê
5
10
iteration
15
20
5
10
15
20
25
disease num.
30
35
40
1
0.9
% converge
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
range of prior
0.8
1
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rostt‚~kystf.uQx`f.·Qxyl¨nyw!l¨´stu-Ü Û° Ê
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ky±YlÔgst´Qh³f.stu†kµf}Kkm±Qlstu>kylonmw!~ -Þxylo/l Ost¹!jYnyl#Š -Þ· .B.¨Ê
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#
$ éy«>¯@è0«>«>éyæ å
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g-~¥ny¹.s{uc~txSstu ~gif.nyl¹!louQl¨n²~cxyl¨kykystuQ¹ky±c~u ky±c~kf¥}Òlonmnyf.n]É
rof.nynyl¨rokystuQ¹Irof>´QstuQ¹ » ky±Ql ½ ° ‡ Û:Ó v…&kyf|QÜ Û° ~¥uQ´
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rof.nynyl¨rokystuQ¹rof>´QstuQ¹¹!n¦~hQ±Yxi|!l¨k-km±Ql6{f>f.h†|Ì·³l¨{stl¦}Bx-xm±QfÁ
±Qst¹!±rof!nmnylo‚~¥kystf!u:Áqstky±:ky±YlÔr¨f!nynmlorokg-~¥ny¹.s{uc~txÊ
Ó uÈlonynmf!n]É]rof.nynyl¨rokystuQ¹Èrof>´QloxÃkm±QlIh³f.xykyl¨nystf!nÃstxÌk]|†hYs{rX~tt|
±Qst¹!±Y{|'h³l~¥„!lo´~uQ´Îf.uQligst¹!±>k0km±QstuQ„Íkm±³~kky±Ys{x }l~kmjQnyl
case 32 momentum=0.1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
loopy
loopy
case 16 momentum=0.1
1
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.2
0.4
~
0.6
0.8
0
0
1
0.2
loopy
case 34 momentum=0.1
·
0.6
0.8
1
true
case 46 momentum=0.1
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.4
true
0.1
r
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-‚jYxyj³~¥{t| *‹ *XŒs{kmlon²~¥kystf!uYx .oÕFuQf!kmlxylow.lon²~¥±Qst¹!±Y{|jQuQrof.nynmlo‚~kyl¨´Îh³f.s{u>kmxÊ -‚´ .&hQtf!kmx0km±QlnmloxyjY{kmx&}f!n&r~xml ‰†î ~k&kystgi?
l ,.‹
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x ³sth>6É ³f!hS¾X·clo±³~Xw>stf!n`~¥nyf.jQuQ´ky±Qlq´Qs‚~¥¹!f!uc~>stxk]|>hQstr~.}f.nky±QlquYf!u>É]rof!u>w.lony¹.s{uY¹ Ü Û° r~¥xyloxXÊ
0.2
0.4
0.6
true
0.8
1
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
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g-~¥ny¹.s{uc~@hQnmf!·³~¥·Qst{stkms{l¨xqxy±Qf.jQt´ ~¥{O·³luQl~¥n lonyf'f!n0f.uQVl d
ky±Ys{x,stx,rotl~nmt|ÔuYf!k,ky±Qlr~¥xyl0~x,r~¥u·clqxyl¨lou stuky±QlÝc¹!jQnmloxÊ
Ó kigst¹!±>k·clloÇ>hclorokmlo´2ky±³~¥kitf>f!h>|hYnyf!hc~¹†~¥kystf!uÁf!jQt´
f!uY{|:Áf!nm„-ÁlotO}f!n&¹!n¦~hQ±Qx&Áqstky±‚~nm¹!ltf†f.hQxÊ à fÁlow.lon…
f!jYn`nmloxyjQtkmx…³~¥uQ´ihYnylow>stf!jQxqnmloxyjY{kmxqf!ukyjQnm·³f rof>´Ql¨x…Qxm±QfÁ
ky±c~ktf†f.h>|ihQnmf!h³~¥¹†~kmstf!ur~¥uÍ~txmfiÁf!ny„'Á`lotO}f.n0¹!n¦~hQ±Yx
Áqstky±:g-~¥u>|xmg-~tQtf>f!hYxÊ
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~:r~¥jQkystf.u³~nm|ÎuQf!kml-~·cf!jYktf>f!h>|hQnmf!h³~¥¹†~¥kystf!uS…,xm±QfÁqstuQ¹
ky±c~k0km±Qlg-~nm¹!stu³~¥{xg-~X|loÇ>±Qst·Qstk0f.xyrostt‚~kystf.uQxqky±³~¥k0±³~Xw.l
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hQnmloxylou>kmlo´2xyf.gil:hQnyl¨{stgs{uc~ny|6nyl¨xyjQtkyx:stu>w!loxmkyst¹†~¥kystuQ¹6ky±Ql
r~¥jQxyl&f}Sky±Yl0f!xmrosttâ~¥kystf!uYx[~¥uQ´ixm±QfÁlo´ikm±³~kstkstxuYf!kxystg É
hQt|i~g-~¥kykmlon`f¥}Kkm±Qlxys lf¥}[km±QluQlok]Áf!nm„if!nqkm±Qlu>jQg ·clon
f}qh³~¥nylou>kyxXÊ ° ~¥ky±Qlonky±Yl x²~glxmkynmjQrokyjYnyl:Áqstky±Î´Qs€ï@lonylou>k
h³~¥n²~glokyl¨n w!~tjQlox g:~X|Íf.xyrostt‚~kylf!n loÇ>±Qst·Qstk xmk²~·Y{l:·cl¦É
±³~Xw>stf!nXÊ
Yf!n~tf.jQnxystg jQ‚~¥kystf!uQxX…qÁl6}f!jQuY´Ökm±³~kÁq±Ylou2tf†f.h>|
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