Election 2008
Media Analysis
Lifeline Communications Group
www.lifelinecom.com/Election.htm
Election Campaign Battlegrounds

Ground War
 Riding

+ national office organization
Air War
 Television

+ Radio advertising
Headline War
 Leader’s
tour, campaign war room, media
relations
 Who won the day’s headlines?
NewsInfluence Index

What we did:
 Calculated
media analysis index for election
coverage
 Followed major campaign news stories
 Weighted scale, with heavier emphasis on
television items, front pages

Tracked three television networks, national
newspapers, major regional newspapers
Campaign Launch
Let the Greens In
Wednesday, September 10

Green 25
Lib 15
NDP 2
BQ 2
Cons -28.5
Thursday, September 11
Green 63
Cons 24.5
Lib 12
NDP 11
BQ -14

Friday, September 12
Lib 27.5
NDP 19
BQ 7
Green 3

Cons -37.5

Saturday, September 13
Cons 55
NDP 24
Green 17
Lib 15
BQ 9
Sunday, September 14
NDP 17.5
Cons 3.5
Lib 3
Green 1
BQ 1
Positive coverage for
allowing Greens into TV
Debates
Negative coverage for
Conservatives

‘Pooping Puffin’
War Room Stumbles
Positive weekend
coverage for
Conservative election
strategy
Campaign Week 1 Box Score

Who won the day’s
headlines:
Green
Cons
Lib
NDP
2 Days
1 Day
1 Day
1 Day

Positive Coverage for Greens in Leaders’
TV Debates [Sept 10, 11]

Conservatives Knocked Off Message, Off
Track by Party War Room [Sept 12]

Large Volume of Negative Coverage for
‘Pooping Puffin’ [Sept 10]

Election Coverage Sees Campaign
Moving in Conservative Direction [Sept 13]

NDP Gaining Ground on Liberals [Sept 14]
Campaign Week 2
It’s the Economy, Listeria
Monday, September 15
NDP 23
Cons 13.5
Lib 9
Green 4
BQ 2

Tuesday, September 16
Cons 26
NDP 25
Lib 16.5
BQ 6

Green -7
Wednesday, September 17
NDP 29
Lib 26
BQ 7
Green 4

Cons -14
Thursday, September 18
Lib 40.5
Green 36
NDP 25
BQ 2
Cons -16.5
Friday, September 19
Lib 39
NDP 15
BQ 4
Green 2
Cons -90

Negative media for
Conservatives on Listeria
Outbreak
Campaign themes
develop on the economy
and world financial crisis
NDP positioned as chief
threat to the
Conservatives
Liberal campaign seen as
stumbling, faltering
Campaign Week 2 Box Score

Who won the day’s
headlines:

Mixed NDP Coverage


NDP
Lib
Cons
3 Days
3 Days
1 Day
Positive
attacks
on
Conservative
government over listeria outbreak
Negative media over candidate troubles
[Sept 15, 17, 20]

Mixed Liberal Coverage



Positive attacks on Conservatives for
listeria crisis
Leader Dion seen as faltering in opening
days of campaign
Dion makes funding promises on arts,
responds to ‘Green Shift’ attacks [Sept 18, 19,
21]

Mixed Conservative Coverage


Very negative media on listeria
Leader Harper plays up record
economic management [Sept 16]
on
Campaign Week 3
Arts Cuts, Liberal Platform
Monday, September 22
Green 16.5
Lib 15.5
BQ 3

NDP -3.5
Cons -19
Positive media for Liberal
campaign platform

Tuesday, September 23
Lib 77.5
Cons 45
Green 21
NDP 8
BQ 0

Wednesday, September 24
Lib 30.5
NDP 22
BQ 8
Green 4

Cons -11
Thursday, September 25
Four days of negative
Conservative coverage

NDP 17
BQ 6
Green 0

Cons -13
Lib -22
Friday, September 26
Green 7
BQ 4
NDP 3
Lib -6
Cons -16.5

Dion attacks Conservatives
on arts and culture cuts
More criticism for Dion
campaign performance
Candidate troubles
Criticized over arts cuts
Greens receive positive
media for rail swing by
Elizabeth May
Campaign Week 3 Box Score

Who won the day’s
headlines:
Green
Lib
NDP
2 Days
2 Days
1 Day

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May makes
campaign swing by train [Sept 22, 26]

Liberals Release Party Platform

Dion
attacks
Conservatives
over
government cuts to arts and culture
[Sept 23, 24]

Positive coverage highlights NDP gains
in voter support in British Columbia
[Sept 25]
Campaign Week 4
Leaders’ Debates, Plagiarism
Monday, September 29

NDP 78
BQ 9
Cons 0.5
Green 0
Positive media for NDP
campaign platform
Lib -13

Tuesday, September 30
NDP 21
Lib 6
BQ 4
Green 2
Cons -5.5

Wednesday, October 1
Lib 21
Green 12
Positive coverage for
Liberals

BQ 10
NDP 0

Cons -64
Media sees strong
performance for Layton
Thursday, October 2
Lib 40.5
Harper plagiarized speech
Strong performance for
Dion in French debate
Green 26

BQ 17
NDP 16
Cons -23
Friday, October 3
Cons 41.5
NDP 39
Green 20
Lib 7
BQ 5
Three days of negative
Conservative coverage

Harper seen as surviving
attacks in English debate
Campaign Week 4 Box Score

Who won the day’s
headlines:
Lib
Cons
NDP
3 Days
2 Days
2 Days

Liberals attack Harper over plagiarized
speech [Oct 1]

Positive reviews for Dion in French
leaders’ debate [Oct 2]

Conservative Leader Harper withstands
opposition barrage in English leaders’
debate [Oct 3]

Focus sharpens on world financial crisis
and downturn in the economy [Oct 5]
Final Week
Economic Tsunami Hits Campaign
Monday, October 6
NDP 31
Lib 29
BQ 10
Green 0

Cons -78
Tuesday, October 7
Lib 26
NDP 20
Green 7
Conservatives suffer
three days of very
negative coverage

BQ 1
Cons -65

Wednesday, October 8
Cons 41.5
Lib 24.5
Positive coverage for
Liberals

NDP 23
Green 2
BQ 0
Harper provides stock tips
Dion positions Harper as
out of touch on economy
Thursday, October 9

Lib 56.5
NDP 33
Cons 8.5
Green 2
BQ 0
Friday, October 10
NDP 45
Lib 14
BQ 6
Green 2
Cons -110.5
Layton appeals to voters
to rally around NDP
Final Week 4 Box Score

Who won the day’s
headlines:
Lib
Cons
NDP
4 Days
2 Days
2 Days

Dion mounts fierce attack on Harper and
Economy in campaign’s final days [Oct 13]

Liberals seen as scrambling to avoid
election defeat with Jean Chretien
campaign appearance [Oct 11]

News reports emphasize campaign
missteps, gaffes and strategic errors for
Conservatives [Oct 8]

Conservative Leader Harper nurses
narrow lead in voter support across
campaign finish line [Oct 12]

NDP attacks Conservative on Afghan war
costs, and banks on interest rates [Oct 6, 10]
2008 Final Box Score
W1
W2
Cons
1
1
Lib
1
3
NDP
1
3
Green
2
W4
W5
Total
Seat
Results
2
2
6
143
2
3
4
13
76
1
2
2
9
37
4
0
W3
2
BQ
* Media coverage tracked for 32 days over campaign
50
Campaign Result

Stronger than expected Conservative
minority
 Despite

14 days of negative coverage
Weaker than expected Liberal result
 Resignation

Improved seats for NDP
 But

of Leader Stephane Dion
no historic breakthrough
Bloc Quebecois gains from Conservative
mistakes
Election Coverage Impacts

Stronger Conservative minority despite
heavy volume of negative election
coverage
 Suggests

Conservative brand more resilient
Weaker Liberal performance
 Campaign
did not benefit from negative
coverage for Conservative government
 Suggests Liberal brand losing strength