Animal Production:
Where Are We Going?
Andrea Rosati
EAAP - European Federation for Animal Science
www.eaap.org
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
1. Current Situation
The global population is 7.3 billion today
Food production:
Milk
Milk Production
USA
India
China
Brazil
Germany
Russian Fed.
France
New Zealand
Pakistan
Turkey
World
2014
2015
2016
91,01
59,81
37,78
32,30
30,67
31,50
24,00
19,13
13,39
15,98
627,21
91,28
62,19
35,67
34,26
31,32
30,29
23,71
19,47
17,37
16,66
635,32
93,46
66,42
37,61
35,12
32,39
30,51
25,33
21,32
18,03
17,00
655,96
1. Current Situation
The global population is 7.3 billion today
The food production is:
Milk
Meat
1. Current Situation
 The global population is 7.3 billion today
 Livestock farming produces food mainly with
Milk, Meat, Eggs
 Livestock Industry turnaround is 1,56% of global
GDP (World Bank, 2014)
 There are 2,36 billions farmers (World Bank, 2014)
 2470 Animal Scientists fully employed in USA
 Environmental impact due to Animal Production
(GHG from livestock ≈ 15%)
Percentages of Undernourished
Human Population
1/3 of produced food is lost or wasted
Source: FAO
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
2. How we arrived here!
Food production has always been strictly
linked with human requirements
“No possible form of society could prevent
the almost constant action of misery upon
a great part of mankind” - Thomas Malthus
(1798)
2. How we arrived here!
Food production has always been strictly
linked with human requirements
Technologies supported the increase of food
production
2. How we arrived here!
Food production has always been strictly
linked with human requirements
Technologies supported the increase of food
production
Technologies have been relevant where
have been applied
•
•
•
•
Investment
Culture
Infrastructure
Society
2. How we arrived here!
Some examples of important applied
technologies:
 Artificial insemination
 Unifeed
 Computerized systems
 Vaccines, Antibiotics
 Milking machines
 Refrigerating systems
 Genetic evaluation, Genomic application
 ...
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
How to estimate the future of
animal production
The process of forecasting a
technical/economical/social/scientific
system is similar to data analysis and
instead to give results in estimated values,
can give results in potential animal farming
systems
Some Important Lessons
• Science and research should predict and guide the
reality and not being behind (“There is urgent need for the
development and application of economic and policy analysis tools to
aid rational decision-making in the management of the global
domestic AnGR”, Rege and Gibson, 2003)
• When referring to Animal Production systems, the
future is not a fixed time but a dynamic and
changeable period
• It is really important to predict economic and
environment conditions
Some Important Lessons
• Different situations in different environments (“In
the developing world, the trends are affecting the ability of livestock to
contribute to improving livelihoods and reducing poverty as well as
the use of natural resources.”, Seré et al., 2010)
Diverse approaches in the world
Different social awareness
Unlike economic conditions
Breeding structure
Technology application is different
History of animal breeding since domestication of animals
Support to research and vicinity between research and industry
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
Involved Actors
Farmers
Researchers
Industries
Policy makers
Consumers
Civil Society
Farmers
Less farmerss
Large size
Close to market
requirement
and less to
traditions
Close to
technology
Ability to invest
Research
Diverse Public support
Larger size
Closer
to where research is produced
Closer to
It is
important
market
technology
requirement
and less to
Diverse
Private support
traditions
More ability to
invest
Example: Genetic Improvement
• Completion of genome sequences
• Genetic prediction based on allele sharing, rather than
pedigree relationships, make breeding value predictions
early in the life
• Selection applied to wider range of traits (also traits with
environmental or adaptive outcomes)
• Recombination in vitro, transgenesis, mutagenesis (for new
genetic variation or phenotoypes)
The future of animal production: improving productivity and sustainability (D.A. Hume et
al. 2011)
Research
Less farmerss
Diverse Public support
Larger size
Where
research
is produced
Closer
to
Closer to
market
Links withtechnology
requirement
Industry and
and less to
Application
traditions
More ability to
Diverse Private support
invest
Industry
Few actors in food
production industries
High request of
production
efficiency
Important impact on
animal farming
World standardization of food products
Policy Makers
Decisions about trading
Animal Welfare and Health,
Environmental rules
Selective support to farming systems
Consumers
Changing habits in Developing world
the possibility to buy animal
products is increasing
Changing habits in Developed world
Increase in population size
Civil Society
Environmental aspects
Food strategic value
Attention to animal welfare
Ethical issues
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
Forces
Increase population size
Increase Population Size 201020150
Forces
Increase population size
Increase consumption in developing world
Forces
Increase population size
Increase consumption in developing world
Social, traditional and environmental
aspects
Forces
Increase population size
Increase consumption in developing world
Social, traditional and environmental
aspects
Advanced technologies
Increased trading
Forces
Increase population size
Increase consumption in developing world
Social, traditional and environmental
aspects
Advanced technologies
Increased trading
Unification of market, technology and
production systems
How will food demand be met in
the future?
Smith (2014)
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
Constraints
Environment
GHG Emissions
Environmental index needs to be
established taking into account
carbon footprint, water and energy
use
A possible solution: agroecology
(Dumont et al., 2012)
• Reducing environmental footprint by reducing
inputs:
– adopting management practices to improve animal
health
– decreasing the inputs
– decreasing pollution by optimizing the metabolic
functioning
– enhancing diversity within animal production systems
to strengthen their resilience
– preserving biological diversity in agroecosystems by
adapting management practices
Constraints
Environment
Feedstuff scarcity
Social Aspects
•
•
•
•
Animal welfare
Animal protection (ONG...)
Veganism
Image of animal farming in society
Lack of application of technologies
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
Future (what we can expect)
Not a Unique
Answer!
Expected Situation
The global population is expected to surpass
9 billion by 2050, from 7.3 billion today
Livestock systems have a major role to play
in addressing global food and nutrition
security
Animal farming must produce larger
quantities of high quality and affordable
meat, milk and eggs, through production
systems that are environmentally sound,
socially responsible, and economically
viable
Future (what we can expect)
Different answers per production system
 For example: “adaptation strategy should be based on selection for
profitable animals under different production systems” (Scollan et
al.)
Different products per location of animal
farming
• Close to urban areas
Urbanization Rate
Future (what we can expect)
Different answers per production system
Different products per location of animal
farming
• Close to urban areas
• “Free” (marginal) land
• Developing world
Utilization of Marginal Land in
Developing Countries
Future (what we can expect)
Different answers per production system
Different products per location of animal
farming
•
•
•
•
Close to urban areas
“Free” (marginal) land
Developing world
Southern hemisphere case
Future (what we can expect)
Milk
• Increase production (in ten years +208 Mt)
• New net exporters: Colombia, Romania,
Uzbekistan
Meat Ruminants
Meat Monogastric
Future (what we can expect)
Milk
• Increase production (in ten years +208 Mt)
• New net exporters: Colombia, Romania,
Uzbekistan
Meat Ruminants
Meat Monogastric
Eggs
Future (what we can expect)
Social Constraints
Europe/North America/Oceania
• Humanization of animals
Future (what we can expect)
Social Constraints
Europe/North America/Oceania
• Humanization of animals
• Diet change
• Social image of animal farming
Asia/Africa
• Urbanization, emigration
South America
Future (what we can expect)
Vicinity to Technology Development
• Developed world
o Short application chain
o Higher cultural background
o Ability to invest in development
o Vicinity to rich markets
o Higher labour costs
• Developing world
o ....
Summary
1. Current situation
2. How we have arrived here!
3. How to estimate the future of animal
production
4. Involved actors
5. Forces
6. Constraints
7. The future (what we can expect)
8. Conclusions
Sustainable Livestock Farming
Sustainable agriculture is “the efficient
production of safe, high quality agricultural
products, in a way that protects and improves
the natural environment, the social and
economic conditions of farmers, their
employees and local communities, and
safeguards the health and welfare of all
farmed species”
Economically
Viable
Environmentally
Sound
Socially
Responsible
Sustainable Livestock
Farming
Conclusions
Likely, this goal will not be reached
…
Food Production
Farmers
Societal
Acceptance
Research and
Technology
Industries
Economy
Conclusions - Farmers
Less farmers
Closer to urban area and to the market
More efficient
More standardized, for both applied systems
and products
Conclusions - Researchers
Research activity increases, but lower trend
than other field, and not really punctual
More linked to industry and to short term
objective
Increase the role of dissemination to civil
society and policy makers (hopefully!)
Conclusions - Industry
Industry will have guiding role
Strong lobbying to policy makers
Standard market, standard products
Dealing with all chain from producers to
consumers
Conclusions – Policy Makers
Policy makers more influential:
• for the strategic role of food production
(developing world)
• For environment, welfare and ethic issues
(developed world)
Less possibility to manage for supplying
production and relative resources
Conclusions – Consumers
The demand of animal products will
increase
New Consumers trends:
• Less beef meat (-40% in USA since ’70)
• More chicken meat:
o Cheaper
o Less environmental problems
Conclusions – Consumers
 Developed world consumers will slightly reduce
the use of animal products, rather than becoming
vegetarians, but globally minor changes
 Developing world consumers will require much
more animal products
 Other possible solutions (Boland et al., 2014):
 shifting protein sources up the supply chain
 use of plant-based substitutes or extenders for animalderived protein foods
 use of novel sources for both animal and human
nutrition
Conclusions – Civil Society
Society influence will not often act as
scientifically-based:
• Less meat production (no realistic)
• More extensive systems (more production of
GHG)
• Humanization of domestic animals (ethical
issues?)
Powerful influence on policy makers and
consumers and therefore to farmers and
industry
Conclusions
• With the request of massive increase of
animal products and the relative constraints,
the chances to keep at the same level the
environment and to satisfy the global
request are limited
• The current (and future) social, technical
and economic situations do not favourite a
solution
True Science
Disseminate broadly the outcomes of
accurate research activities
Support the discussion on food safety by
putting forward scientific facts
Lobbying for and strengthening specific
research funds to answer food safety
problem
Thanks for your Attention!
[email protected]