Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Using HEA Outcome Analysis to quantify
food deficit and estimate the amount of
food or cash required to fill the deficit
A snapshot
HEA Framework: Overview
…and then it incorporates the impact of a
shock e.g. 50% crop failure
The baseline picture: an
understanding of how
households live in a
normal year/baseline
period….
..and finally how people might
be able to cope, e.g. 1 HH
member migrates for labour
Effect on access to crops
Final result
food aid
other
food aid
crops
crops
other
food aid
other
purchase
purchase
purchase
crops
migration
deficit
deficit
Baseline + Hazard + Coping =Outcome
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
2
HEA Framework Overview: Components
In practice this process is broken
into six steps
BASELINE +
HAZARD + COPING = OUTCOME
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
3
Outcome Analysis
In outcome, the most common objective is to
investigate
the
effects
of
hazards/intervention (or any changes) on
future access to food and income at
household level
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
4
Intervention Thresholds
The Survival Threshold is the total
income required to cover:
A) 100% of minimum food energy
needs (2100 kcals per person per
day),
B) the costs associated with food
preparation and consumption
(i.e. salt, soap, kerosene and/or
firewood for cooking and basic
lighting),
C) any expenditure on water for
human consumption
It has two components:
•
•
The staple food basket (A)
The minimum non-food basket
(or minimum non-staple basket)
(B + C) – red in expenditure graph
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
5
Example: Survival deficit
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
6
Example: Survival and LP deficit
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
7
Example: Calculating beneficiaries in need and duration
of assistance
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
8
Example: Calculating the amount of food or cash
required to fill the deficits
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
9
Example: Seasonal analysis
__________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
10