NHBC NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW
Q1 2016
NHBC statistics represent a unique source of detailed
up-to-date information on new home construction and
the house-building industry. The figures relate to new
homes registered with NHBC for its ten-year warranty,
which covers around 80 per cent of all new homes built
in the UK.
NHBC figures are available well ahead of Government
figures. As such, we represent the only source of
up-to-date information on new home registrations.
-9%
new homes registered
in Q1 2016 compared
to Q1 2015
+10%
36,566
new homes registered
Q1 2016
152,329
more new homes completed
new homes registered
during financial year 2015/16 during financial year 2015/16
compared to 2014/15
in line with 2014/15
NEW BUILD REGISTRATIONS - QUARTER ON QUARTER COMPARISON
Number of homes
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Q2-06
Q3-06
Q4-06
Q1-07
Q2-07
Q3-07
Q4-07
Q1-08
Q2-08
Q3-08
Q4-08
Q1-09
Q2-09
Q3-09
Q4-09
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Q2-15
Q3-15
Q4-15
Q1-16
0
Source: NHBC (Appendix table 1). Note: Figures are derived from actual ‘New-Build’ registrations for NHBC’s ten-year warranty.
HEADLINE RESULTS
l 36,566 new homes registered in Q1 2016, 9% down on Q1 2015
l Financial year registrations in line with 2014/15, up 80% since recession
l 10% increase in new home completions in 2015/16
RECENT HISTORY
2013/14
(137,316)
2012/13
(111,392)
+23%
SLIGHT DROP
UPTURN
2014/15
(152,262)
+11%
-0.5%
Source:
NHBC (Appendix table 2)
GROWTH
2015/16
(152,329)
+0.04%
CONSOLIDATION
If you would like an interview to discuss this in more detail or if you require any further information, please contact
Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
Financial year figures
NEW HOME REGISTRATIONS
300,000
Volume
159,000
(Long-term average)
250,000
152,329
(2015/16)
200,000
150,000
100,000
2015/16
2013/14
2014/15
2011/12
2012/13
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2005/06
2003/04
2004/05
2001/02
2002/03
2000/01
1998/99
1999/00
1996/97
1997/98
1995/96
1993/94
1994/95
1991/92
1992/93
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1986/87
1987/88
1985/86
1983/84
1984/85
1981/82
1982/83
1980/81
1978/79
1979/80
1976/77
1977/78
1975/76
1973/74
1974/75
1971/72
1972/73
0
1970/71
50,000
Source: NHBC (Appendix table 3)
NEW HOME REGISTRATIONS - BY SECTOR
160,000
Private
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
Public
60,000
40,000
2015/16
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
0
2014/15
20,000
Source: NHBC (Appendix table 3)
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS
250,000
Volume
200,000
150,000
100,000
Source: NHBC (Appendix table 8)
PAGE 2 OF 10
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Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2000/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
0
1987/88
50,000
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
Regional overview
REGIONAL REGISTRATIONS – Q1 2015 vs Q1 2016
Malcolm MacLeod, Scotland
David Little, Northern Ireland
6,670
“After a promising 2015, this year has experienced
5,620
4,751
a relatively
quiet start, with Q1 down compared to
3,832
3,572
last year. However, the financial
year 3,114
figures were 3,490
2,223
1,889
very pleasing in terms
of new home registrations
7
3,187
“The start of the year has seen a slight
decline in numbers compared to the
same period last year, however this
4,422 4,057
comes after a positive 2015, which
was the best year for housebuilding in
1,180 years.
1,146
1,131 As the
Scotland for eight
year 1,142
progresses we expect to see volumes
come
at a similar
rate toWales
last
South
WestthroughNorth
East
year, with continued activity in and
around Edinburgh and with the Help to
3,732
3,198making a real impact.”
Buy scheme
6,117
2,910
651
with strong public sector numbers. Since early
-9%
March we have seen significant signs of growth in
ern Ireland
London
Yorkshirethe
& announcement
East Midlandsof
West Midlands
Scotland
South East
6,670
the market including
a 550
6,117
e Of Man
Humberside
home development in Bangor and a 1000 home
4,422 4,057
3,832in3,490
development
Newtownards. These and other
3,572 3,114
3,187 2,910
announcements confirm the continued
growth in
889
1,180 1,131
the new home market, particularly in sought-after
areas such as Belfast and North Down.“
-4%
e&
side
East Midlands
West Midlands
Scotland
5,620
South West
North East 4,751
Wales
North West &
Merseyside
3,582
777
1,146
1,131
North East
1,142
5,620
4,751
3,582
3,582
London
-16%
Eastern
Northern Ireland
4,422 4,057 & Isle Of Man
2,223 1,889
3,572 3,114
Yorkshire
&
East Midlands
3,582
Humberside
3,832 3,490
777
Eastern
London
Northern Ireland
& Isle
Of Man &
Yorkshire
Humberside
3,198
1,131
1,146
North East
3,832 3,490
3,832 3,490
2,223 1,889
West Midlands
London
East Midlands
Yorkshire &
Humberside
West Midlands
2,910
Scotland
6,670
777
-17%
East Midlands
Scotland
North West &
6,670
Merseyside
6,117
West Midlands
Eastern
South
East
Eastern
3,832
South West
3,490
South East
3,572
3,114
4,057
2,223 1,889
1,180
1,131
1,146
1,131
1,180
1,1
Scotland
South East
Northern
Ireland North
Lond
South
West
Ea
& Isle Of Man
4,751
3,5
777
1,180
651
3,582
4,422 4,057
2,910
6,117
5,620
3,8324,317
3,490
4,422 4,057
3,582 3,187 2,910
5,620
4,317
-8%
-15%
651
3,198
Northern Ireland
Isle Of Man
1,146 & 1,142
6,670
6,117
North East
3,187 2,910
3,732
3,198
Wales
-8%
2,223 1,889
3,732
London
Yorkshire &
Humberside
Ea
4,422
4,057
North West
&
Merseyside
Q1 2015
1,180
1,131
1,146
1,142
Yorkshire &
East Midlands
West Midlands
Humberside
South West
North East
Wales
Scotland
South East
North West &
Merseyside
South WestQ1
2016
North East
Peter Watton, Wales
Steve Catt, England
“New home numbers in Wales for the first three months
of 2016 have been broadly in line with growth seen
over the last two years, which is good progress from
the low volumes seen during the economic downturn.
Additionally we have seen Help to Buy –Wales become
fully established which in turn has helped boost the
number of homes in the last financial year. Hotspot areas
such as Cardiff, Newport and the M4 corridor continue to
appeal to the larger developers.”
“As with the rest of the UK, England has seen a quieter first
quarter of the year, with numbers falling below the extremely
strong registrations and starts that we saw in the first half of
2015, with both the private and public sectors down overall. Out of
the English regions, only the North-West has shown an increase
in numbers compared to the same period a year ago. Despite
this, the 2015/16 financial year for England is almost identical
to 2014/15, and this is a good indicator of how the industry has
maintained its performance over the last 12 months.”
Source: NHBC (Appendix table 4)
PAGE 3 OF 10
3,187
6,117
3,732
Scotland
4,422
London
South East
3,572 3,114
3,187 2,910
1,142
Wales
3,187
3,187 2,910
651
Eastern
Northern Ireland
Man
West Midlands & Isle OfScotland
West Midlands
-13%
-9%
5,6206,670
4,751 6,117
4,317
East Midlands
6,670
0%
South West
Yorkshire &
Humberside
4,751
3,572 3,114
2,223 1,889
777
651
651
1,180
South East
3,832 3,490
-15%
Northern Ireland
& Isle Of Man
North West &
5,620
Merseyside
4,317
777
6,117
Eastern
651
3,572 3,114
+17%
Wales
4,317
6,670
3,732
3,198
1,180
West
s
4,317
North West &
Merseyside
1,142
2,223 1,889
4,057
4
South East
1,146
3,732
3,198
If you would like an interview to discuss this in more detail or if you require any further information, please contact
Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
Wale
0
PAGE 4 OF 10
2011/12
2011/12
Source: NHBC
If you would like an interview to discuss this in more detail or if you require any further information, please contact
Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2010/11
2010/11
2012/13
2009/10
2009/10
2004/05
2008/09
5,000
2008/09
10,000
2007/08
15,000
2007/08
20,000
2006/07
25,000
2006/07
NEW HOMES COMPLETED IN LONDON BY FINANCIAL YEAR
2005/06
Source: NHBC
2005/06
2004/05
2000/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
4,751
7,846
7,127
7,883
7,948
7,391
7,286
6,972
6,113
5,620
5,644
5,693
5,330
4,764
3,639
3,288
4,343
Volume
2000/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
2012 Q1
5,919
7,089
9,000
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1991/92
1990/91
2,859
5,000
1992/93
1991/92
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
3,000
1989/90
1988/89
4,000
1990/91
1989/90
0
1987/88
6,000
1988/89
0
2011 Q2
7,000
1986/87
8,000
1987/88
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
London - new homes market
NEW HOMES REGISTERED IN LONDON - BY QUARTER
2,000
1,000
Source: NHBC
NEW HOMES REGISTERED IN LONDON BY FINANCIAL YEAR
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
Analysis of new home registrations
NEW BUILD REGISTRATIONS – PRIVATE/PUBLIC & AFFORDABLE SECTOR
50,000
45,000
40,000
Private sector
35,000
-7% (28,398)
30,000
25,000
Public &
affordable sector
20,000
15,000
-15% (8,168)
10,000
5,000
2016 Q1
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2011 Q3
2011 Q4
2011 Q1
2011 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2007 Q1
2007 Q2
2006 Q3
2006 Q4
2006 Q2
0
Source: NHBC (Appendix table 1)
51%
2,396
Did you know?
of all new home
registrations in 2015/16
were for semi-detached or
detached houses
bungalows were
registered to be built in
2015/16
Since depth of recession
(2008/09) NHBC has registered
80% more new homes
UK HOUSE TYPES
120,000
100,000
Detached &
Semi-Detached
51%
80,000
60,000
40,000
Flats/Maisonettes
31%
20,000
Terraced
16%
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2000/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1997/98
1998/99
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
0
Bungalows
2%
Source: NHBC (Appendix table 5)
PAGE 5 OF 10
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Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
Appendices
Table 1: N
ew build registrations – private and public sector
QUARTER
ENDING
PRIVATE
SECTOR
PUBLIC
SECTOR
TOTAL
Q2-06
42,202
6,951
49,153
Q3-06
35,072
6,409
Q4-06
30,051
Q1-07
QUARTER
ENDING
PRIVATE
SECTOR
PUBLIC
SECTOR
TOTAL
Q2-11
22,463
12,416
34,879
41,481
Q3-11
21,554
8,397
29,951
5,583
35,634
Q4-11
15,947
5,371
21,318
43,528
10,022
53,550
Q1-12
20,101
5,707
25,808
Q2-07
41,699
10,778
52,477
Q2-12
19,525
6,554
26,079
Q3-07
39,984
9,657
49,641
Q3-12
20,197
8,209
28,406
Q4-07
35,357
8,160
43,517
Q4-12
18,063
6,707
24,770
Q1-08
28,458
8,809
37,267
Q1-13
23,777
8,360
32,137
Q2-08
20,109
9,138
29,247
Q2-13
25,437
10,707
36,144
Q3-08
13,049
10,080
23,129
Q3-13
24,903
9,003
33,906
Q4-08
8,719
7,373
16,092
Q4-13
23,968
9,093
33,061
Q1-09
8,700
7,527
16,227
Q1-14
24,493
9,712
34,205
Q2-09
13,506
8,453
21,959
Q2-14
27,329
9,625
36,954
Q3-09
15,970
8,401
24,371
Q3-14
28,697
8,080
36,777
Q4-09
18,512
7,913
26,425
Q4-14
29,922
8,465
38,387
Q1-10
18,459
9,733
28,192
Q1-15
30,560
9,584
40,144
Q2-10
20,078
10,861
30,939
Q2-15
30,134
10,806
40,940
Q3-10
20,609
9,137
29,746
Q3-15
28,540
7,733
36,273
Q4-10
18,703
8,813
27,516
Q4-15
28,997
9,553
38,550
Q1-11
19,262
11,063
30,325
Q1-16
28,398
8,168
36,566
NOTES
1. The above figures relate to ‘New-Build’ registrations for NHBC’s ten-year warranty in the UK, including the Isle of Man.
2. Nationally NHBC provides warranties on approximately 80% of new homes built in the UK (including the Isle of Man).
3. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations.
PAGE 6 OF 10
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Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
Appendices (Continued)
Table 2: New home registrations - financial year
FINANCIAL
YEAR
TOTAL
FINANCIAL
YEAR
TOTAL
FINANCIAL
YEAR
TOTAL
FINANCIAL
YEAR
TOTAL
1970/71
239,235
1982/83
157,678
1994/95
173,201
2006/07
179,818
1971/72
236,030
1983/84
173,473
1995/96
148,914
2007/08
182,902
1972/73
110,513
1984/85
169,883
1996/97
157,419
2008/09
84,695
1973/74
123,361
1985/86
172,983
1997/98
169,605
2009/10
100,947
1974/75
218,781
1986/87
198,278
1998/99
160,410
2010/11
118,526
1975/76
218,781
1987/88
209,244
1999/00
158,298
2011/12
111,956
1976/77
149,222
1988/89
218,735
2000/01
153,741
2012/13
111,392
1977/78
149,222
1989/90
150,819
2001/02
158,888
2013/14
137,316
1978/79
157,111
1990/91
129,097
2002/03
177,347
2014/15
152,262
1979/80
130,540
1991/92
147,312
2003/04
179,338
2015/16
152,329
1980/81
97,927
1992/93
130,259
2004/05
181,906
1981/82
115,355
1993/94
171,427
2005/06
185,393
Table 3: N
ew home registrations - financial year - by sector
FINANCIAL
YEAR
PRIVATE
PUBLIC
TOTAL
FINANCIAL
YEAR
2006/07
150,853
28,965
179,818
2007/08
145,498
37,404
2008/09
50,577
2009/10
2010/11
PRIVATE
PUBLIC
TOTAL
2011/12
80,065
31,891
111,956
182,902
2012/13
81,562
29,830
111,392
34,118
84,695
2013/14
98,801
38,515
137,316
66,447
34,500
100,947
2014/15
116,508
35,754
152,262
78,652
39,874
118,526
2015/16
116,069
36,260
152,329
NOTES
1. NHBC statistics are derived almost exclusively from its registered builders, who construct around 80% of the new homes built in the UK. As
such, they represent a unique source of detailed, up-to-date information on new home construction and the house-building industry.
2. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations.
3. The above figures relate to ‘New-Build’ registrations for NHBC’s ten-year warranty in the UK, including the Isle of Man.
4. NHBC registration figures are obtained as follows: A builder is required to register a house with NHBC at least 21 days before building starts.
PAGE 7 OF 10
If you would like an interview to discuss this in more detail or if you require any further information, please contact
Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
Appendices (Continued)
Table 4: Regional registration figures – all sectors
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
North East
617
1,349
692
1,056
1,272
1,313
1,180
1,131
North West
1,510
1,816
1,768
2,032
2,413
3,092
3,198
3,732
Yorkshire & Humberside
1,025
1,916
1,218
1,464
1,576
1,669
2,223
1,889
West Midlands
927
2,368
1,627
1,683
2,421
2,996
3,832
3,490
East Midlands
1,260
2,339
1,788
1,929
2,563
2,742
3,572
3,114
Eastern
2,536
3,476
3,478
2,474
3,199
2,533
4,317
3,582
South West
1,753
3,118
3,027
2,959
3,176
3,246
4,422
4,057
London
1,294
3,142
8,612
4,343
7,391
7,883
5,620
4,751
South East
2,444
4,777
4,803
3,792
4,018
4,511
6,670
6,117
England
13,366
24,301
27,013
21,732
28,029
29,985
35,034
31,863
Scotland
1,446
1,963
1,979
2,716
2,647
2,771
3,187
2,910
Wales
743
1,125
937
888
1,034
901
1,146
1,142
Northern Ireland (incl. Isle of Man)
672
803
396
472
427
548
777
651
16,227
28,192
30,325
25,808
32,137
34,205
40,144
36,566
UNITED KINGDOM (INCL. ISLE OF MAN)
NOTES
1. The figures show New build and Solo homes registered for NHBC’s ten-year warranty.
2. Nationally NHBC provides warranties on approximately 80% of new homes built in the UK (including the Isle of Man).
3. The figures are sourced from information held on NHBC’s Fusion system as at 31st March 2016.
4. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations.
PAGE 8 OF 10
If you would like an interview to discuss this in more detail or if you require any further information, please contact
Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
Appendices (Continued)
Table 5: UK House types in total registrations
FINANCIAL
YEAR
BUNGALOWS
FLATS/
MAISONETTES
DETACHED HOUSES &
SEMI-DETACHED HOUSES
TERRACED HOUSES
1987/88
29,985
45,246
101,534
32,479
1988/89
29,639
53,713
102,268
33,115
1989/90
19,982
35,430
69,893
25,514
1990/91
14,117
28,436
61,403
25,141
1991/92
14,134
29,206
73,587
30,387
1992/93
11,303
24,352
64,333
30,273
1993/94
13,515
28,902
92,825
36,191
1994/95
12,340
29,541
104,595
26,731
1995/96
10,567
24,250
90,729
23,374
1996/97
11,167
22,944
98,038
25,284
1997/98
11,563
26,527
106,416
25,112
1998/99
10,094
26,617
99,667
24,033
1999/00
9,791
27,883
97,893
22,749
2000/01
7,845
34,921
86,787
24,168
2001/02
7,142
42,867
82,924
25,976
2002/03
6,589
55,390
84,185
31,191
2000/04
6,189
64,686
76,098
32,367
2004/05
4,959
75,373
69,638
31,780
2005/06
4,417
82,724
64,979
33,107
2006/07
4,045
80,990
59,989
34,638
2007/08
3,969
83,966
57,384
37,757
2008/09
2,474
40,824
24,428
17,020
2009/10
2,609
37,593
36,187
24,561
2010/11
2,338
46,957
42,261
26,988
2011/12
1,928
40,021
45,155
24,853
2012/13
1,862
37,427
47,886
24,217
2013/14
2,489
47,124
60,700
27,007
2014/15
2,144
47,454
74,629
28,035
2015/16
2,396
47,840
77,326
24,767
NOTES
1. NHBC statistics are derived almost exclusively from its registered builders, who construct around 80% of the new homes built in the UK. As
such, they represent a unique source of detailed, up-to-date information on new home construction and the house-building industry.
2. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations.
3. The above figures relate to ‘New-Build’ registrations and completions for NHBC’s ten-year warranty in the UK, including the Isle of Man.
4. NHBC registration figures are obtained as follows: A builder is required to register a house with NHBC at least 21 days before building starts.
PAGE 9 OF 10
If you would like an interview to discuss this in more detail or if you require any further information, please contact
Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].
NHBC ANNUAL NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016
Appendices (Continued)
Table 6: New homes completed in the UK - by financial year
FINANCIAL
YEAR
TOTAL
FINANCIAL
YEAR
TOTAL
FINANCIAL
YEAR
TOTAL
FINANCIAL
YEAR
1987/88
180,934
1995/96
165,079
2000/04
169,700
2011/12
114,810
1988/89
203,505
1996/97
159,082
2004/05
170,288
2012/13
105,698
1989/90
181,179
1997/98
160,445
2005/06
177,798
2013/14
113,091
1990/91
152,868
1998/99
154,067
2006/07
187,198
2014/15
125,218
1991/92
152,705
1999/00
159,601
2007/08
181,825
2015/16
137,396
1992/93
144,135
2000/01
149,068
2008/09
135,751
1993/94
158,411
2001/02
149,403
2009/10
111,574
1994/95
172,479
2002/03
165,924
2010/11
106,119
TOTAL
NOTES
1. NHBC statistics are derived almost exclusively from its registered builders, who construct around 80% of the new homes built in the UK. As
such, they represent a unique source of detailed, up-to-date information on new home construction and the house-building industry.
2. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations.
3. The above figures relate to ‘New-Build’ registrations and completions for NHBC’s ten-year warranty in the UK, including the Isle of Man.
4. NHBC registration figures are obtained as follows: A builder is required to register a house with NHBC at least 21 days before building starts.
PAGE 10 OF 10
If you would like an interview to discuss this in more detail or if you require any further information, please contact
Nadia Bedra on 01908 746 734 or email [email protected].