2016 results and 2017-2020 strategy

1 MARCH 2017
2016 results and
2017-2020 strategy
A year of records
Our path to long term value
Goliat FPSO
Highlights 2016: a year of records
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UPSTREAM
MID-DOWNSTREAM
MID-DOWNSTREAM
Exit rate at 1.86 Mboe/d
Exp: 1.1 Bboe @UEC $0.6/boe
Organic RRR: 193%
Zohr 40% disposal
2017 startups ahead of
schedule
 FCF: €2.3 bln
 EBIT adj. R&M+Chem €0.6 bln
 G&P set to breakeven in 2017
* proforma including
40% of Zohr disposal
3
EFFICIENCY
€ 3 bln saving (vs 2015) :
 Capex: - € 2.2 bln (-19%)
 Opex: $ 6.2 /boe (-14%)
 G&A: -€ 150 mln
BEATING TARGETS AND FUELLING GROWTH
FINANCIALS
FINANCIALS
 CFFO: € 8.3 bln
 CFFO = CAPEX @ $46 /bbl
 Leverage 24%*
HSE performance
People Safety – TRIR
Upstream Methane Emissions|MtCO2 eq.
Eni top performer since 2013
Flaring down | MSmc
-9% TCO2eq/Tep: on track to reach 2025 target (-43% since 2014)
3
5
4
10,000
2016 vs. 2007
-57%
2
Industry
average
1
8,000
3
6,000
2
4,000
1
2,000
-21%
2016 vs. 2007
-73%
2016 vs 2015
0
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
HSE OUR TOP PRIORITY
4
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exploration successes fuelling future production
Cumulative discovered resources 2014-2016| bln boe
4
200
3.4
3
2016
P2/P3 +
contingent
30%
Short cycles
assets
160
140
120
2015
100
25%
1
2014
25%
0
193*
180
50%
2
2016 RRR | %
Disposed/
under
disposal
70%
FID/
Under FID
in 4YP
80
Long life
production
assets
60
35
40
20
0
eni
AVG 2014-2016 UEC < $1 /BOE
Avg
2014-16
150%
Peers: Total, Chevron, Statoil, BP, Shell, Conoco Philips, Exxon
5
*139%, considering 40% of Zohr disposal
Peers
55%
2017 start ups ahead of schedule
East Hub – Angola
OCTP – Ghana
JANGKRIK - Indonesia
IN PRODUCTION
8th February 2017
Execution Time 39 months
FID
FID
100%
Execution Time 30 months
FID
FID
Start-up
85%
Execution Time 42 months
FID
FID
Start-up
June 2017
6
Start-up
June 2017
Project details
Project details
Project details
 Eni working interest: 37%
 Hydrocarbon: oil
 Gross Volumes in place Block 15/06
(West + East) > 1.2 bln boe
 Peak production Bl 15/06 (West + East)
100%: 150 kboe/d
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Eni working interest: 44%
Hydrocarbon: oil & gas
Gross Volumes in place: 750 mln boe
Peak production 100%: 85 kboe/d
95%
Eni working interest: 55%
Hydrocarbon: gas
Gross Volumes in place: 470 mln boe
Peak production 100%: 80 kboe/d
Zohr: countdown to first gas
Aug. 2015
Feb. 2016
Discovery
FID
Zohr 1
Zohr 3 Zohr 4
Zohr 2
Zohr 5
December
2017
Feb.
2017
FIRST
GAS
2.3 years from discovery
Zohr 7
Zohr 6
Exploration & development
Reservoir studies
Engineering & Proc.
Long Lead Items
Onshore
Construction & Installation
Start
Site
preparation piling
Feb. 2016 – Site preparation
7
Start
sealine
laying
Progress 50%
Feb. 2017 – Onshore Plant
Feb. 2017 – Platform
Strong cash generation from mid-downstream
EBIT adj| € mln
569
193
CFFO| € bln
Mid-downstream
4
3
R&M
Chemicals
G&P
3.1
3.0
2015
2016
2
1
0
G&P
2015
Chemicals
2016
ALL BUSINESSES FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE
8
R&M
Relentless focus on cost efficiency
Group Capex*| € bln
Opex| $/boe
G&A| € Mln
1445
-10%
11.5
7.2
-19%
-14%
9.3
2015
2016
1296
6.2
2015
2016
2015
OVERALL COST OPTIMISATION 2016 vs 2015 € 3 BLN
9
* Including JV financing
2016
Best-in-class for financial discipline
Net debt| € bln
2016 leverage and change vs 2013
16
Net Cash
Flow
Dividends
14
12
13.0
11.7
1.0
2.6
2.9
10
8
Disposals
pre tax
(incl Zohr)
6
40
35
30
25
20
15
4
10
2
5
24
0
YE 2015
pro-forma
Saipem
22%
10
Change since 2013 (% points)
45
YE 2016
pro-forma
Zohr
Leverage
24%
24%
0
-5
Eni
20
30
40
50
2016 Leverage [%]
Peers adopting scrip dividend
Peers: Total, Chevron, Statoil, BP, Shell, Conoco Philips,Exxon
60
70
An outstanding result in 2016
2016 Cash balance| € bln
8.7
8.3
CFFO = CAPEX
$ 46 /bbl
vs targets $ 50 /bbl
CFFO*
Capex*
SLASHING CASH NEUTRALITY SINCE 2013
11
* pro-forma, considering the sale of 40% of Zohr and Val d’Agri effect
12
13
FPSO Angola
Exploration and long term organic growth are the engine of our strategy
Resources
Operations
 High impact and conventional
exploration
 Long term organic growth
 Integrated with E&P assets and close
to final market
14
 High level of operatorship
 Design to cost
 Fast track
Value
 Upstream and G&P integration
 Enhancement in the downstream
 Active portfolio management
BUILDING A HIGH MARGIN PORTFOLIO
Best positioned to capture upside
Upstream
70
70
2017-2020 targets
 Production growth CAGR 3%
 Exploration resources 2-3 bln boe
Mid downstream
 G&P breakeven in 2017
 Refining breakeven at $3/bbl margin in 2018
Efficiency
4YP avg
capex cash neutrality*
< $ 45 /bbl
 Capex vs previous plan: -8%
 New projects BEP around $30/bbl
46
Financials
2016
Brent $/Bl
*CFFO capex coverage
<45
Capex cash neutrality*
 New 4YP disposal target ~€ 5-7 bln
 4YP CFFO € 47 bln
15
Free cash
flow
43.7
Avg. 2017-2020
2016
2020
70
A rich set of exploration opportunities
Organic
growth and
replacement
Flexibility
and
low break-even
EXPLORATION
Early
monetization
Gas – 55%
Oil – 45%
2-3 BLN BOE EQUITY RESOURCES
16
A large portfolio for the long term
New EXPLORATION successes…
Bouri ph2
Nyonie
Mamba T3-4
Evan
Shoal
FID before 2020
FID 2020+
IDD
Eldfisk ph2
Coral ph2
Bonga North
Kashagan ph2
Karachaganak EP
Etan &Zabazaba
A&E structures Libya
Bonga SW
Perla Ph.2
MambaT1-2
Loango
Kashagan CC01
Merakes
Baltim SW
Coral FLNG
Johan Castberg
Nenè ph2B
17
Argo cluster
…to
PRODUCTION
An unrivalled inventory
Italy
Argo Cluster
CAGR 2016-2020
3%
2016
Kazakhstan
- Kashagan CC01
- Karachaganak Ph. 3
CAGR 2020-2025
3%
2017
2020
2025
New projects/ramp ups
Venezuela
Perla Ph.2
18
Libya
Norway
Bahr Essalam Ph.2 Johan Castberg
A&E structures
Congo
Ghana
OCTP Nenè Ph.2A
Angola
- West hub
- Ochigufu
- Vandumbu
- East hub
Egypt
Mozambique
- Zohr
- Coral
- Baltim SW
- Mamba T1-T2
- Coral & Mamba
future phases
Indonesia
Jangkrik
Merakes
High quality long term cash flow
Cash flow per barrel| $/boe
4YP
start up
27 $/boe
30
4YP
start up
29 $/boe
25
20
20
15
15
Legacy
16 $/boe
11
10
Legacy
12 $/boe
5
19
Brent $/Bl
2016
2017-18
2019-20
43.7
57.5
67.5
Gas demand continuous growth and market rebalancing
Supply/Demand LNG |Mtpa
~ 55 Mtpa
500
(12-15 LNG trains)
International prices|$/MMbtu
~ 135 Mtpa
(30-40 LNG trains)
14
12
400
10
300
8
200
6
4
100
2
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
0
2017
Spot or renewals of existing contracts
Contracted LNG
LNG Demand
Output LNG
2018
TTF
NEW LNG REQUIRED EARLY NEXT DECADE
20
2019
2020
HH
2025
JAP
2030
A turning point for G&P
4YP Action plan
Ebit adj| € mln
> 600
 Gas supply contracts aligned to the market
 Logistic costs reduction
~300
avg 2017-18
 Equity gas/LNG monetization
avg 2019-20
2025
CUMULATIVE CFFO € 2.6 BLN IN THE 4YP
21
Extracting value from integration
Upstream gas productions
Midstream Positions
Focus on LNG sales | Mtpa
Targets
10
 Maximizing value of equity gas
 Developing a competitive LNG
portfolio
3.5
 Leadership position in European
and emerging markets
2017
A PORTFOLIO PLAYER INTEGRATED WITH UPSTREAM
22
2025
Downstream: building on the restructuring
EBIT Chemicals | € Mln
Refining & Marketing
Breakeven Refining margin | $/bl
7.5
EBIT +€ 300
Mln
self help
4.2
2016
4YP
4YP
avg./y
avg
300
2020
@ constant scenario
SERM
4.2
Scenario
upside
5.5
4YP CUMULATIVE CFFO > € 4.5 BLN
23
2016
2016
EBIT 2020
€ 900 Mln
2016
2013
300
600
3
2018
onwards
300
Capex plan
Capex allocation 2017-20
€ Bln
35
34.4*
-8%
31.6
Other
30
Other
25
Upstream
-13%
20
15
IRR (%)
Mid-downstream
+ New energies
≈10
Production optimization
Mandatory
> 20
Development of new
production
15-20
E&P**
E&P
10
5
Exploration
0
plan 2016-2019
plan 2017-2020
CAPEX 2017 VS 2016 -18%
24
* Excluding JV financing and post SEM application @ constant FX;
** E&P post portfolio
average 2017-20
55% UNSANCTIONED IN 2019-20
Our enhanced disposal programme
Disposal| € bln
30
40% Zohr
25
20
5-7
 Proved successful portfolio mgmt
 Dual exploration model
2
 E&P portfolio rationalization
15
 Further financial flexibility
10
18
5
0
2013-16
25
2017-20
Cash Flow plan
€ Bln 16,0
scenario
14,0
Growth
& efficiency
12,0
disposal
other
disposal
10,0
other
8,0
CAPEX
6,0
E&P
E&P
avg 17-18
avg 19-20
57
67
4,0
2,0
0,0
Brent $/Bl
26
Remuneration - dividend policy confirmed
Competitive distribution policy
progressive with underlying earnings growth and scenario
Floor dividend
cash sustainability
Cash neutrality
 $50/bbl including disposals in 2016
 $60/bbl organic in 2017
 <$60/bbl organic 2018-20
Additional financial flexibility
2017 DIVIDEND €0.8/SHARE (FULLY CASH)
27
Unrivalled exploration
Fast cash generation
Low breakeven portfolio
Highly leveraged to oil price
Strong balance sheet
BACK UP
29
New energy solutions
2017-2030 Guidelines
 Significant growth of installed capacity
 Technology neutral, with focus on hybrid
projects
 Technological and geographical synergy
with other Eni business lines
MW
500
400
300
200
100
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Energy Solutions installed capacity
30
Assumptions and sensitivity
2017
2018
2019
2020
55
60
65
70
1.08
1.13
1.15
1.20
Std. Eni Refining Margin ($/bl)
4.0
4.0
4.3
5.5
NBP ($/mmbtu)
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
Cracker Contribution Margin (€/ton)
270
260
254
255
4YP Scenario
Brent dated ($/bl)
FX avg (€/$)
4YP sensitivity*
31
Ebit adj (bln €)
Net adj (bln €)
FCF (bln €)
Brent (-1$/bl)
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
Std. Eni Refining Margin (+1$/bl)
+0.2
+0.1
+0.2
Exchange rate €/$ (+0.05 $/euro)
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
Main start ups
Main start ups 2017-2018
op
start up
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Achieved
Achieved
1H17
2H17
2H17
1H18
1H18
2H18
2H19
2H19
country
op
start up
Argo Cluster
Marine XII Full Field
Coral FLNG
Johan Castberg
Mamba T1-T2
Merakes
Bonga SW
Karachaganak EP
Kashagan CC01
Loango
A-E structures
Perla ph2
Mamba next trains
Italy
Congo
Mozambique
Norway
Mozambique
Indonesia
Nigeria
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Congo
Libya
Venezuela
Mozambique
yes
yes
yes
no
yes
yes
no
yes
no
yes
yes
yes
yes
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
>2020
Coral Phase 2
Mozambique
yes
>2020
Nenè Ph.2A
Block 15-16 East Hub
OCTP Oil
Jangkrik
Zohr
OCTP Gas
West Hub (Ochigufu)
Bahr Essalam Ph. 2
Baltim SW (Barakish)
West Hub (Vandumbu)
Start ups post 2020
32
country
Congo
Angola
Ghana
Indonesia
Egypt
Ghana
Angola
Libya
Egypt
Angola
Equity peak in 4 YP
Working
Liquids/Gas
(kboed)
Interest
20
20
20
45
175
20
<10
70
20
<10
65%
37%
56%
55%
60%
56%
37%
50%
50%
37%
Liquids
Liquids
Liquids
Gas
Gas
Gas
Liquids
Liquids/gas
Gas
Liquids
Equity peak
Working
Liquids/Gas
(kboed)
Interest
<10
30
50
55
135
30
20
40
15
<10
70
85
>100
60%
65%
50%
30%
50%
85%
10%
29%
17%
43%
50%
50%
50%
Gas
Liquids
Gas
Liquids
Gas
Gas
Liquids
Liquids/Gas
Liquids/Gas
Liquids
Liquids/Gas
Gas
Gas
50
50%
Gas