Decision analysis and risk management:
Introduction to course
Jouni Tuomisto, THL
Outline
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Introducing the people
Objectives of the course
Motivation
Case example
Opasnet and open policy practice
Information flow in decision support now
Decision
maker
Evironmental impact
assessment or other
recommendation
Scientific
review
Expert
Scientific
articles
Original data
Researchers
Practical
knowledge
Stakeholders and lobbying
Report
Civil servant
Information flow in decision support in
open policy practice
Decision
maker
Stakeholders
Practical
knowledge
and lobbying
Expert
Other
scientific
literature
Q?
A!
R.
Open
assessment
Civil servant
Report
Scientific
analysis
Researchers
Open original
data
Aims of the course
• To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform,
participate, and moderate open assessments using
Opasnet.
• The capability to act as an expert facilitator. The purpose is
to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision
support.
• The students will learn about the fundamentals of decision
analysis, the connections between assessments and societal
decision making, and the role of decision making in a
pragmatic context of improving outcomes. They will learn to
apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of
an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment
based on the requirements of societal decision making.
• The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision
options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal
solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).
The role of expert facilitator
The key role is to help people understand complex
decision-related issues and each other.
Another key role is to transform this understanding into
a machine-readable format for quantitative
modelling.
Sharing data and understanding is the joy of a
facilitator!
What do you want to learn from this
course?
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Process of risk management
What happens after environmental impact
assessment? How to use the information in
decision making?
Using open assessment in real life in work.
How to present the data so that it is very easy to
understand?
Interpretation of environmental data for
environmental sustainability.
Existing legislation and regulation.
Shared understanding
Did we produce shared understanding
about objectives?
Societal decision example:
the port of Rauma
• Urban area planning is under way in Rauma.
• The development of the port of Rauma is a critical
thing.
• How large are the emissions and health impacts of
fine particles in Rauma, Finland? Options:
– 1: Centre and nearby areas
– 2: From centre to sea (port moved to a new area)
– 3: Shores and paths
Decision analysis framework
• Who defines the problem? Whose utilities?
p(in time), cost (€)
Decision:
3 options
Chances
Uncertain
outcomes
E(u)
pt
pt
? k€
? k€
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pt
pt
? k€
? k€
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pt
pt
? k€
? k€
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Rauma port: health impacts of fine
particle emissions
http://en.opasnet.org/w/Health_impacts_of_fine_particles_in_Rauma
Map of the two main options for Rauma port
How Rauma model looks like
Example of concentration fields
around the port
Attributable deaths due to city plan
options in Rauma
Decisions by an individual vs. in a
society
• In theory, decision analysis is straightforward with a single
decision-maker: she just has to assess her subjective
probabilities and utilities and maximize expected utility.
• In practice, there are severe problems: assessing probabilities
and utilities is difficult.
• However, in a society things become even more complicated:
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There are several participants in decision-making.
There is disagreement about probabilities and utilities.
The decision models used are different.
The knowledge bases are different. NOTE! In this course,
"knowledge" means both scientific (what is?) and ethical (what
should be?) knowledge.
What is Opasnet web workspace?
Place to collect and produce information for decision
support
Place for online collaboration
Functionalities used and available
A wiki for describing and discussing issues
A database for storing all kinds of data
Machine-readable links to other databases
Modelling environment for making assessments using R
statistical software
Possibility to directly access the data and model results
from outside
Open data is a current megatrend
http://www.openaccessweek.org/
https://www.vm.fi/vm/fi/05_hankkeet/0238_ogp/index.j
sp
http://apps4finland.fi/2012/10/28/datan-avausdatavaalit/
http://www.datavaalit.fi/participate/
http://pilotti.forumvirium.fi/
https://data.seattle.gov/
http://www.data.gov/
http://data.gov.uk/
Framework for knowledge-based
policy
Key web links of the course
– Course website: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
– Lecture videos: http://tcs.uef.fi
– Homeworks:
http://en.opasnet.org/w/Decision_analysis_and_risk_
management_2015/Homework
– (Rauma case):
http://en.opasnet.org/w/Health_impacts_of_fine_parti
cles_in_Rauma
–Homeworks 1-3 / 10
Homework 1: Familiarise yourself to open policy
assessment and answer the questions. Due date:
23 March.
Homework 2: Start practicing the technical skills
needed to use Opasnet. Due date: 15 April.
Homework 3: Based on the topics covered so far,
make two questions that need clarification. Due
date: 24 March.
– For details see
http://en.opasnet.org/w/Decision_analysis_and_risk
_management_2013/Homework
Course outline
Lectures: 18th – 26th March
Homeworks started by 26th March
Homework 9 is a real case assessment performed
together.
Method sessions to check progress 15th – 29th April
Seminars about homework results 11-12th May.