The Age of Development:
Mission accomplished or RIP?
Duncan Green
April 2014
Global poverty
Global poverty trajectory based on alternative scenarios for consumption growth and distribution, 1990–2030
Source: L.Chandy et al. (2013) ‘The Final Countdown: Prospects for Ending Extreme Poverty by 2030’
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2013/04/ending-extreme-povertychandy/the_final_countdown.pdf (last accessed June 2015).
Worldwide battle deaths
The waning of war: world-wide battle deaths per 100,000 people
Source: Human Security Report Project (http://www.hsrgroup.org/), the Uppsala Conflict Data Project,
(http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/) and the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (https://www.prio.org/).
Shrinking gap in women’s
participation in workforce
Gender gap in labour force participation, 1990 to 2010 (male minus female labour force
participation rates, in percentage points)
Source: International Labour Organization (2014) ‘Key Indicators of the Labour Market’
http://kilm.ilo.org/2011/download/kilmcompleteEN.pdf (accessed June 2015).
So much for the good news...
Where do we go from here?
What is poverty, anyway?
Well-being vs. GDP
The correlation between (a) reported increases in well-being as a result of (b) increasing GDP
R=0.70 N=65 p<0.0000
Source : R. Ingelhart (1997) Modernization and
postmodernization: Cultural, economic, and political change in
43 societies, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Source : World Values Surveys, GNP/capita purchasing power estimates from Word Bank (1997) ‘World Development Report
1997: The State in a Changing World’ https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5980 (last accessed June 2015).
Who’s in charge?
Shocks are the new normal
A food system meltdown
Source: Institute of Development Studies (2009) ‘Accounts of Crisis: Poor People’s Experiences of the Food, Fuel and
Financial Crises in Five Countries’ http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/AccountsofCrisisFINAL.pdf (accessed June 2015)
Inequality
Globally, it’s the 2%
Source: Lakner, C. and Milanovic, B. (2013) ‘Global Income Distribution from the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the
Great Recession’, Policy Research Working Paper No. 6719, World Bank,
http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/1813-9450-6719 (accessed September 2014).
G20 could learn from Latin America
Source: Oxfam using data from F. Solt (2010) ‘The Standardized World Income Inequality Database’ (v3.0)
Climate chaos
Closed vs. open system
The doughnut
model – a
safe and just
space for
humanity
Source: K. Raworth (2012a) ‘A Safe and Just Space for Humanity: Can We Live Within the Doughnut?
http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/a-safe-and-just-space-for-humanity-can-we-live-within-thedoughnut-210490 (last accessed June 2015).
A linking theme: Complex systems
PA Knowledge Limited (2009) ‘Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics’
... But the aid business prefers
linear
Implications: Thinking harder
about ‘how change happens’
So which is it?
Remember this?
Thankyou!