Central London Office Market Report Highest annual take-up since 2000 Q4 2015 Central London overview £ Pace of GDP growth eases in H2 but 2016 to see continued momentum After a sustained run of strong growth in London and the UK economy more broadly, the year has begun with downgrades to estimates of the recent pace of growth and renewed concerns over the outlook for global growth. This has been reflected in equity market turmoil, a plunging oil price and speculation as to whether China and other emerging markets will experience financial instability in response to capital outflow associated with the US Federal Reserve’s decision in December to embark on base interest rate rises. While this news has the potential to dampen business sentiment, economic fundamentals for the UK and London remain sound, with solid growth expected to continue in 2016, at much the same pace as in 2015, supported by low unemployment, the robust expansion of the services sector and steadily improving household spending power. £ Highest annual take-up since 2000 Q4 saw 2.8 million sq ft let, which capped off another stellar year for Central London leasing, propelling take-up to 12.2 million sq ft for the full year 2015, well ahead of the 2014 total of 11.3 million sq ft and the highest since 2000. 2015 ends with an above average 2.5 million sq ft under offer and active demand totalling 9.5 million sq ft, suggesting that demand conditions remain supportive and that the slight slowing in economic growth, along with the prospect of a referendum on EU membership, have not yet had a material impact on the mood of London occupiers. Supply remains at 15 year low Vacancy continued its steady decline and now stands at a low 3.4% across Central London as a whole, the lowest since 2001. This reflects a further fall in the City to 3.9% and in the Docklands to 4.9% while the West End was stable at a low 2.6%. 2 | Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 The level of speculative development under construction rose further to 8.6 million sq ft, indicating that developers are responding to London’s burgeoning requirements for new office floorspace. The West End will see a high level of development completions in 2016, focussed in Victoria, but in the City the pipeline is skewed to later years and so occupiers will find little relief to the current tight market conditions over the next 12 months. £ £ City rents on the rise The City market saw rents ratchet further upward in Q4, ending the year at £70 per sq ft for non-tower prime space in the core market. West End prime rents stand at £120 per sq ft for 10,000 sq ft plus floorplates, but there is mounting evidence of higher rents being achieved in the core Mayfair and St James’s market for smaller floorplates. £ Another buoyant Q4 for investment turnover as yields remain stable In keeping with the normal seasonal pattern, Q4 saw a sharp rise in Central London investment market turnover, with £6.9 billion traded, double the Q3 total of £3.4 billion. Full year volumes reached £18.5 billion, in line with last year’s £18.6 billion, and the third consecutive year around this level. Prime yields remained stable in Q4, at 4% in the City and 3.5% in the West End for smaller lot sizes. Ben Burston Head of UK Office Research Take-up City Millions sq ft West End Docklands 14 12 10 8 23% 2015 take-up 12.2 6 4 ahead of 10 year average million sq ft 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Prime rents 2013 2014 2015 Vacancy rate City Q4 2014 West End Q4 2014 Docklands Q4 2014 £62.50 psf £115.00 psf £40.00 psf 12% £70.00 psf £120.00 psf £45.00 psf 8% 12% 4% 13% to Q4 2015 to Q4 2015 City 14% to Q4 2015 West End Docklands 10% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prime yields stable Speculative under construction n City n West End City West End 4% 3.5% 4.4 million sq ft million sq ft million sq ft 2.3 million sq ft Q4 2014 3.2 2.9 Q4 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Investment volumes Purchaser origins 2014 £18.6 £18.5 £18.4 billion billion 2013 2015 billion £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ 10 year average £14.4 billion 31% (2015) 69% (2015) £ £ £ UK investors Overseas investors Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 | 3 Key transactions The Zig Zag Building, SW1 Tenant: Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Size: 88,000 sq ft “Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management committed in Q4 to relocating from the City to Victoria – leasing 88,000 sq ft at Land Securities new development at The Zig Zag Building, Victoria Street. This is a landmark deal for the West End attracting a traditional City occupier to Victoria. This was one of the largest deals in the final quarter of the year and shows the increasing mobility of Central London occupiers.” Andrew Barnes Director London Agency 100 Bishopsgate, EC2 Tenant: Royal Bank of Canada Size: 244,000 sq ft Rent: Confidential Aviva Central London portfolio Price: Circa £1 billion Purchaser: PSP Investments “The 50/50 joint venture partnership between Aviva and PSP Investments was one of the largest transactions of 2015. The portfolio of 14 prime assets, located across Central London, represents over one million square feet in total. The mix of stabilised income-generating assets and development opportunities in both the City and West End of London, provides a well-balanced portfolio and JLL was delighted to have been involved in this innovative and exciting new partnership.” Damian Corbett Director London Capital Markets “Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Canada’s largest financial institution and one of the top 15 banks in the world has pre-let 244,000 sq ft at Brookfield’s 100 Bishopsgate. The development will become one of the most prominent office towers in London. JLL advised RBC throughout the transaction from the initial strategy work to market searches and then ultimately negotiating the pre-let agreement at 100 Bishopsgate.” Mathew Mycock Director London Agency The International Quarter, FCA & TFL Buildings, E20 Price: Circa £370 million (FCA building), circa £245 million (TfL building) Purchaser: Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management (FCA building), Legal & General (TfL building) Vendor: Lendlease and LCR Andrew Hawkins Director London Capital Markets 4 | Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 “At £615 million+ the combined sales represented the largest single office investment deal in the UK/ London last year. Both buyers are of exceptional standing and LCR and LendLease are very pleased to be partnering with them.” Issue to watch: Innovation and Infrastructure drive London to the top JLL’s unique City Momentum Index captures the dynamics of a city’s real estate market – its rates of construction and absorption, price movement and the attraction of a city’s built environment for cross-border capital and corporations. Covering 120 cities globally and measuring socio-economic and commercial real estate momentum based on 37 variables across 10 topics, the CMI evaluates the capacity of each city to react to the combined forces of urbanisation, globalisation and technology, which are recasting the commercial geography of real estate. While maintaining its international status as a financial, cultural and academic centre, London has made major strides in establishing itself among the World’s elite cities in the newer areas of technology and innovation. The remarkable feature of this year’s CMI Top 20 is the overwhelming dominance of innovation-rich cities. JLL has long emphasised that city momentum involves far more than just raw GDP growth – it is crucially about building the foundations of an innovation-oriented economy through technology, creating cutting-edge new businesses, attracting talent and nurturing vibrant inclusive communities. Many of the cities at the top of this year’s Momentum Index, such as London, New York, San Francisco and Boston, are home to the world’s most dynamic mixed-used districts that are thriving through their ability to incubate and commercialise new ideas. These compact and well-connected city districts promote connectivity, co-production and open innovation. And what bonds them together is real estate. London's momentum has been boosted by a number of key infrastructure and real estate developments – the nationally significant Crossrail project, Imperial West and UCL East new university campuses, and major mixed-use schemes including the transformation of Vauxhall, Nine Elms and Battersea Opportunity Area. However, to maintain its strong momentum, London will need to continue to execute bold urban transformation plans that support future demographic growth, improve connectivity and provide much-needed space for the city’s expanding innovation economy. Jeremy Kelly Director Global Research Top 20 London 1 11 Nairobi Silicon Valley 2 12 Shenzhen Dublin 3 13 Seattle Bangalore 4 14 Tokyo Boston 5 15 Nanjing Shanghai 6 16 Austin New York 7 17 Hyderabad Sydney 8 18 Melbourne Beijing 9 19 Seoul San Francisco 10 20 Auckland JLL City Momentum Index covers 10 topics – 37 variables Population Connectivity Technology and R&D Education Environment Economic output Corporate activity Construction Real Estate investment Property prices Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 | 5 West End overview Take-up and demand Take-up reached 1 million sq ft in 42 transactions in the final quarter of 2015, a 27% increase on the Q3 total and also the strongest quarterly total since Q1 2013. For the year as a whole, take-up reached 3.7 million sq ft, making 2015 the strongest year for take-up since 2010. Take-up was underpinned by two large transactions; the pre-leasing of 175,000 sq ft to Universal Music Group at 4 Pancras Square, N1C and the letting of 144,000 sq ft to Bouygues UK at Becket House, SE1. These transactions combined accounted for 30% of total take-up in Q4. Unlike in previous quarters where the TMT sector has held the largest share of take-up, the occupier profile in Q4 was relatively balanced. The manufacturing sector dominated with a 29% share in total take-up, followed by the banking and finance sector with 27% and the TMT sector with 25%. The manufacturing sector was boosted by the deal with Bouygues UK, mentioned above, and also several smaller deals. The volume of floor space under offer reached 662,000 sq ft and although this is 38% less than the Q3 figure, it is still well above the 10 year quarterly average of 570,000 sq ft. As a result we expect the strong leasing momentum to continue into 2016. Overall demand stands at 4.7 million sq ft, compared to 5.3 million sq ft in Q3 and is now below the 10 year average of 5.2 million sq ft. The decrease was largely driven by a fall in potential demand which ended Q4 at 1.9 million sq ft. Active demand increased slightly over the quarter to 2.8 million sq ft but remains below the 10 year average of 3.1 million sq ft. The TMT sector continues to drive demand and represents 33% of all active requirements, followed by the service and professional services sectors with 27% and 14% respectively. Existing and future supply Existing supply was stable in Q4 at 2.4 million sq ft. This equates to an overall vacancy rate of 2.6% which remains well below the 10 year average of 4.4%. Grade A vacancy increased from 2% to 2.1% as 250,000 sq ft of floor space completed speculatively during the quarter. “Investment in 2015 was the highest on record.” 6 | Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 The volume of space under construction speculatively was unchanged in Q4 at 3.2 million sq ft, 45% ahead of the 10 year average of 2.2 million sq ft. There is currently 2.3 million sq ft due to be delivered speculatively in 2016, the highest level of speculative development for a single year on record. The new supply is concentrated in Victoria where circa 700,000 sq ft will be delivered as part of three large schemes, namely Verde, Nova North and Nova South. Victoria is followed by Hammersmith which will be delivering over 300,000 sq ft of space at The Foundry and Hammersmith Grove. This increased supply should cause vacancy rates to rise somewhat but given the recent trend of pre-letting in the market, we are expecting that much of this space will be leased ahead of completion. Rents Prime rents in the core remained unchanged from Q3 at £120 per sq ft (assuming a 10,000 sq ft floorplate and a 10 year term). We expect that strong occupier demand and low vacancy in the core will cause prime rents to increase further in 2016, reaching £125 per sq ft by year end. Investment volumes and yields Q4 saw a very high level of investment turnover, with £2.5 billion traded compared to £1.6 billion in Q3, and well ahead of the 10 year quarterly average of £1.4 billion. For 2015 as a whole, £7.1 billion was transacted, the highest ever total for West End investment and well ahead of the £5.9 billion traded during 2014. The largest deal in Q4 involved Aviva’s Central London portfolio, whereby Aviva Investors formed a 50:50 joint venture partnership with PSP Investments. The joint venture deal equated to c. £1 billion and comprised 14 assets across Central London. JLL acted on behalf of PSP Investments. Prime yields remained unchanged in Q4 at 3.5% for sub £10 million, 3.75% for £10 to £80 million lot sizes and 4% for lot sizes over £80 million. Amy Birdee Associate Director Take-up Q4 2015 Long term average sq ft sq ft from Q3-15 sq ft 662,000 840,000 27% 1,000,000 Under offer Key deals Active demand 33% TMT Universal Music Group Carlyle Group 175,000 sq ft 28,300 sq ft 1 St James’s Market, SW1 Park House, Oxford Street, W1 £106.00 per sq ft £77.00 per sq ft 4 Pancras Square, N1C 27% Service Centrica 63,500 sq ft £90.00 per sq ft 14% Professional Banking & finance 10% Public & administrative 10% Millions sq ft Pre-let Share of overall take-up 35% 30% 1.0 25% 0.8 20% 0.6 15% 0.4 10% 0.2 0.0 5% 2005 sq ft Speculative development for 2016 Pre-PC leasing 1.2 2.8 million 5% Manufacturing Pre-leasing Q4 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Investment volumes Q4 2015 £2.5 billion 0% Under construction 3.2 million sq ft 2.3 57% ahead of 10 year average million sq ft t en ghest developm 31% Victoria 14% Hammersmith 11% Bloomsbury hi record completions on Purchaser origins 85% higher than quarterly average 2015 Total £7.1 billion 20% a record high and 20% higher than 2014 18% (2015) UK investors 82% (2015) Overseas investors Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 | 7 City overview Take-up and demand City leasing volumes were robust in the final quarter reaching 1.5 million sq ft, a 19% fall on the 1.8 million sq ft transacted in Q3, but ahead of the 10 year quarterly average for the seventh consecutive quarter. This brings full year take-up to 6.6 million sq ft, lower than the exceptional volumes transacted in 2013 and 2014 when take-up totalled 7 million sq ft, but 22% ahead of the 10 year annual average of 5.4 million sq ft. Leasing activity over the previous three years has totalled 20.6 million sq ft, which is the strongest three year run of take-up since 1999-2001, when take-up reached 20.8 million sq ft. The TMT sector was most active in Q4 both in terms of quantum of space transacted (417,000 sq ft) and number of transactions (23), notable deals included: 48,000 sq ft leased to Salesforce.com at 110 Bishopsgate, EC2 and 51,000 sq ft acquired by Tableau Software at the Blue Fin building, SE1. The banking and finance sector was also prominent in Q4, boosted by the largest transaction of the quarter at 100 Bishopsgate, EC2 where the Royal Bank of Canada have pre-leased 244,000 sq ft. There is a further 1.3 million sq ft under offer, a 10% increase on the Q3 total and broadly in line with the 10 year quarterly average. Active demand fell 9% to 6.1 million sq ft, marginally ahead of the 10 year average of 5.9 million sq ft, although well down on the 7 million sq ft of active demand during the equivalent period in 2014. Looking ahead, the fall in demand indicates leasing volumes are likely to be slightly lower in 2016, especially given the exceptionally low vacancy rate, although are expected to remain ahead of the long term average. Banking and financial sector occupiers currently account for the largest share of active demand with 35% of live requirements, followed by professional services with 19%, and public administration and institutions with 16% respectively. Existing and future supply Overall supply continued to tighten in Q4, falling 7% over the quarter to 4.3 million sq ft, compared to 4.6 million sq ft in Q3 and is now 39% below the 10 year quarterly average of 7.1 million sq ft. The overall vacancy rate is now 3.9%, a significant fall from 6.5% at the end of 2014 and the lowest level since 2001. The supply of new stock continued to decrease due to the lack of speculative completions in 2015. New build supply now totals 740,000 sq ft, equating to a new vacancy rate of 0.7%. 8 | Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 “Strongest run of take-up since 1999 – 2001.” The new build vacancy rate is expected to decrease further in early 2016, with 25% of existing new build supply already under offer, and no development completions (new build) scheduled until Q2 2016. Rents The rapidly decreasing supply and sustained strength of leasing activity has led to further rental growth with City prime rents increasing to £70 per sq ft in Q4, from £67.50 per sq ft in Q3 and are now in line with their previous peak in 1988. Incentives moved in slightly and are now 20 months’ rent free on an assumed 10 year term, down from 21 months in Q3. JLL expects rental growth to continue in 2016, albeit at a slower rate of growth, with prime rents expected to reach £74 per sq ft before the end of the year, before rising to £80 per sq ft by the end of 2019. Investment volumes and yields In keeping with the usual seasonal trend, the final quarter of 2015 was the strongest of the year with £3.2 billion traded across 46 transactions. This boosted full year investment turnover to £10.2 billion, a marginal increase on the 2014 total of £9.9 billion and 35% higher than the 10 year annual average of £7.6 billion. Overseas buyers continue to dominate the market for large lot sizes in Q4, with 10 of the 13 transactions in excess of £100 million acquired by overseas buyers, who accounted for 72% share of overall investment turnover. The largest transaction of the quarter was the purchase of Broadgate West, EC2 by The Blackstone Group for £416 million reflecting a net initial yield of 4.9% and capital value of £915 per sq ft. Prime yields remained unchanged in Q4 at 4% for all lot sizes. James Norton Associate Director Take-up Second hand New Millions sq ft Pre-let/Under construction Refurbished 10 yr ave 8 7 6 2013-2015 strongest run of take-up since 1999-2001 5 4 3 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Key deals 2013 2014 2015 Active demand 35% Banking & finance Royal Bank of Canada Salesforce.com IPG Mediabrands 244,000 sq ft 48,000 sq ft 44,000 sq ft £75.00 per sq ft £62.50 per sq ft 110 Bishopsgate, EC2 99 Shoreditch, EC2 Confidential rent 100 Bishopsgate, EC2 19% Professional service Public, administrative & institutions 10 year average 12% Service industries 5.9 million sq ft 3% Manufacturing Vacancy rate Q4 2014 7 million sq ft 15% TMT Q4 2015 6.1 million sq ft 16% Speculative under construction Overall 12% Grade A New 10% 8% 6% 20 4% 2% million sq ft 2016 2017 0.6 million sq ft 15 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 10 Prime rents Q4 2015 Q4 2014 £62.50 psf 4% £70.00 psf 12% Annual growth Annual growth Forecast Q4 2016 5 £74.000 psf 4% Annual growth 2015 2018 Investment volumes Billions 0% 2.1 1.8 million sq ft UK £12 Overseas 10 year average £10 £8 £6 £4 £2 £0 2006 2007 Purchaser origins 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Top 5 overseas purchasers USA 19% 28% (2015) UK investors 72% (2015) Canada 8% Taiwan 7% China 6% France 5% Overseas investors Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 | 9 Docklands & East London overview Take-up and demand Take-up reached 286,000 sq ft in Q4, a 38% increase on the Q3 total of 208,000 sq ft but 12% lower than the quarterly average of 322,000 sq ft. Full year take-up reached 1.8 million sq ft, 53% ahead of the 10 year average and the highest since 2010, buoyed by a strong Q2 when take-up reached 1.3 million sq ft. An additional 563,000 sq ft is under offer, more than double the 10 year quarterly average of 278,000 sq ft. The 57,000 sq ft acquired by EY at 25 Churchill Place, E14 was the largest transaction in Q4. Other notable transactions included: 38,000 sq ft leased to HSBC Bank at 5 Canada Square, E14 and 34,000 sq ft acquired by Clifford Chance at 20 Churchill Place, E14. Overall demand decreased marginally to 4.6 million sq ft, compared to 4.7 million sq ft at the end of Q3, but remains well ahead of the equivalent period in 2014 when demand totalled 3.7 million sq ft, and 79% ahead of the 10 year average of 2.6 million sq ft. Although the quarterly change in overall demand was only marginal, there was a major change in the composition of active and potential demand. Active demand fell 34% in Q4 to 2.4 million sq ft, although remains well ahead of the 10 year average of 1.6 million sq ft, while potential demand more than doubled to 2.2 million sq ft. Existing and future supply Existing supply continued to tighten in Q4 falling 10% over the quarter to 1 million sq ft, compared to 1.1 million sq ft at the end of Q3, which equates to an overall vacancy rate of 4.9%. The majority of supply is grade A which totals 0.9 million sq ft, a vacancy rate of 4.3%. There were no construction starts or completions in Q4. There are two major speculative schemes currently under construction in Docklands: 1 Bank Street, E14 where 420,000 sq ft is available following the pre-let of 280,000 sq ft to Société Générale in 2014 and Here East, E20 in Stratford where the final 230,000 sq ft phase of the scheme is scheduled to complete in Q3 2016. Rents Prime rents in Canary Wharf, the benchmark for East London, increased to £45 per sq ft in Q4. Albeit there remains a three tiered rental market, with tenant controlled stock available at a slight discount and new build pre-let stock in excess of £50 per sq ft. With existing supply tightening and no new stock delivered until 2018 we expect further rental growth in the short term and a further closing of the gap between landlord and tenant controlled stock. 10 | Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 Take-up Q3 2015 208,000 sq ft Under offer 563,000 Q4 2015 286,000 sq ft sq ft 10 year average 278,000 sq ft Active demand 42% Banking & finance 32% TMT Public & administrative 5% Service industries 5% Manufacturing 2.4 Active demand 15% Professional services million sq ft 10 year average 1.6m sq ft 2% Prime rents Vacancy rate Overall vacancy Prime rent Prime rent 14% £55 12% £50 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% £45 £40 £35 £30 Investment volumes and yields In excess of £800 million was traded across four transactions in Q4 which brings full year investment turnover to £1.3 billion, 56% down on the 2014’s exceptional total of £2.8 billion (which in part was due to the sale of the HSBC Tower), and ahead of the 10 year average turnover of £1.2 billion. Rental conditions in Central London £87.50 £131.05 £85.00 £120.21 £52.50 £77.47 £77.50 £105.56 £75.00 £110.21 £79.00 £116.59 £67.50 £101.72 £67.50 £90.80 STRATFORD £95.00 £144.51 £120.00 £179.04 CAMDEN MARYLEBONE, EUSTON & KING’S CROSS £65.00 £85.91 CLERKENWELL BLOOMSBURY PADDINGTON FITZROVIA NORTH OF OXFORD STREET £95.45 SOHO MAYFAIR HYDE PARK COVENT GARDEN CITY MIDTOWN WESTERN NORTHERN CITY CORE £70.00 £100.61 SOUTHERN EASTERN ALDGATE ST. JAMES’S SOUTHBANK WATERLOO BELGRAVIA & KNIGHTSBRIDGE HAMMERSMITH £70.00 £100.61 SHOREDITCH REGENT’S PARK £65.00 £70.00 £100.61 KENSINGTON & CHELSEA £40.00 £57.10 DOCKLANDS VICTORIA £67.50 £96.75 VAUXHALL £45.00 £70.68 BATTERSEA £65.00 £104.98 £52.50 £78.66 £85.00 £137.85 £50.00 £73.77 £47.50 £71.27 £80.00 £119.02 £120.00 £179.04 £62.50 £90.56 £57.50 £81.75 £67.50 £98.11 £60.00 £84.97 PRIME RENTS OCCUPANCY COSTS Central London Office Market Report Q4 2015 | 11 Contacts Leasing Capital Markets Research Neil Prime Director Head of UK Office Agency +44(0)20 7399 5190 [email protected] Damian Corbett Director Head of London Capital Markets +44(0)20 7399 5286 [email protected] Jon Neale Head of UK Research UK Research +44(0)20 7852 4685 [email protected] Adrian Crooks Director Central London Agency +44 (0)20 7399 5135 [email protected] Julian Sandbach Director Central London Capital Markets +44 (0)020 7399 5973 [email protected] Ben Burston Head of UK Office Research UK Research +44 (0)20 7399 5289 [email protected] Dan Burn Director Central London Agency +44 (0)20 7399 5966 [email protected] Chris Northam Director Central London Capital Markets +44(0)20 7399 5826 [email protected] Alex Hodge Associate Director UK Marketing +44(0)20 7399 5735 [email protected] jll.co.uk © 2016 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. 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