Provider-induced Asymmetric Information in the Insurance Market Larry Y. Tzeng* Jennifer L. Wang** Kili C. Wang*** Jen-Hung Wang*** Abstract This paper examines the existence of provider-induced asymmetric information in the insurance market. The empirical data on comprehensive automobile insurance in Taiwan provide a unique opportunity to test our hypothesis. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find evidence that providers do induce asymmetric information problems. Our empirical results show that the conditional correlation between the coverage level and the occurrence of a claim is higher for insurance policies sold through dealer-owned agents than for those sold through other marketing channels. Key words: asymmetric information, automobile insurance, dealer-owned agents, marketing channel. * Professor, Finance Department, National Taiwan University ** Associate Professor, Risk Management and Insurance Department, National Chengchi University *** Associate Professor, Risk Management and Insurance Department, Shih Chien University **** Assistant Professor, Finance Department, Shih Hsin University 1. Introduction Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) pioneered the study of asymmetric information problems in the insurance market. In the three decades since, their work has inspired many researchers who continue to provide ingenious theoretical findings. The theoretical papers on asymmetric information that followed Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) include Wilson (1977), Miyazaki (1977), Grossman (1979), Shavell (1979), Riley (1979), Radner (1981), Holmstrom (1982), Dionne (1983), Rubinstein and Yarri (1983), Crocker and Snow (1986), Cho and Kreps (1987), Cooper and Hayes (1987), Hellwig (1987, 1988), Arnott and Stiglitz (1988), Hosios and Peters (1989), Hoy (1989), Mookerjee and Png (1989), and Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990). However, until recently, relatively few empirical studies have been devoted to this issue. As discussed by Chiappori and Salanie (1997), data from insurance companies are well-suited for studies of asymmetric information, because they not only record both the coverage and the claim amounts but also provide information on many characteristics of individuals. Some recent papers have used empirical data in alternative insurance markets to investigate asymmetric information problems. In the life/health insurance market, Cawley and Philipson (1999), Cardon and Hendel (2001), and Finkelstein and Poterba (2000) have examined the US life insurance and health insurance markets and the UK annuity market, respectively. At the same time, in the property/liability insurance market, Puelz and Snow (1994), Chiappori and Salanie (2000), and Dionne, Gourieroux, and Vanasse (2001) have studied the automobile insurance market by using data from the US, Canada, and France. Although these studies have successfully constructed a bridge between the theoretical world and real practices to further understand asymmetric information problems, their empirical results have not provided consistent findings for the existence of asymmetric information in the insurance market. In addition, most of these empirical studies have focused on asymmetric information between the insurer and the insured. Only a few have investigated asymmetric information caused by providers. 1 Polsky and Nicholson (2004) investigated the risk differences of enrollees and medical expenditures between HMOs and non-HMOs; Newhouse (1996) also investigated asymmetric information problems in these different organizations. Without a doubt, the provider’s asymmetric information problems—e.g., the existence of moral hazard in health insurance—have raised major concerns in real insurance practices. However, an empirical testing of asymmetric information caused by providers might be difficult because it requires data from both the insurance companies and the providers. In Taiwan, it has been widely believed that comprehensive automobile insurance coverage has long suffered from asymmetric information problems. According to Wang (2004), alternative products could be designed to cope with these problems in this market. Thus, the comprehensive automobile insurance coverage market meshes with our goal to determine whether asymmetric information problems exist in the market, since it is voluntary and offers different coverage choices. There are three different types of comprehensive coverage: A, B, and C in Taiwan. Type A covers all kinds of collision and non-collision losses, including those caused by missiles or falling objects, fire, explosion, windstorm, intentional body damage, malicious mischief, and any unidentified reasons other than the exclusions in the policy. Type B covers all the areas of type A but excludes the non-collision losses caused by intentional body damage, malicious mischief, and any unidentified reasons. Type C covers only damage in a collision involving two or more vehicles. Collision losses caused by hitting other objects—such as a telephone pole, a tree, or a building—and non-collision losses that used to be covered under types A and B are specifically excluded from type C. In this paper, we intend to use comprehensive automobile insurance data from the largest insurance company in Taiwan to examine whether this problem might be induced by the providers. The data from the automobile insurance market in Taiwan provide a unique opportunity to investigate provider-induced asymmetric information problems, since more than 40 percent of automobile insurance policies are sold through dealer-owned agents. 2 We first examine whether a positive relationship exists between coverage and the occurrence of a claim. If there are asymmetric information problems, we should observe a positive correlation between them.1 One important conclusion of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) is that a separating equilibrium could exist in the insurance market. In this case, insurance companies offer a variety of products to attract different types of insured, since the companies may not have enough information to identify the insured’s risk types. Thus, in this equilibrium, high-risk individuals choose higher-coverage insurance and low-risk individuals choose lower-coverage insurance. On the other hand, it is also well known that high insurance coverage could induce the insured’s moral hazard problem in the insurance market. An individual with high insurance coverage might drive less carefully, since most of the loss would be compensated. However, why would asymmetric information be induced by dealer-owned agents? Generally speaking, the policies sold through dealer-owned agents might include a larger percentage of high-coverage policies; and those who purchase insurance through dealer-owned agents might include a greater number of high-risk drivers. On the one hand, car dealerships may have an incentive to promote higher coverage to high-risk customers, since contracts with higher coverage are more expensive and the dealerships are rewarded with a commission that is a fixed percentage of the insurance premium. Meanwhile, high-risk customers2 may bring them more revenues from repairing cars because of accidents in the future. On the other hand, the high-risk insured also have an incentive to purchase insurance through the dealer-owned agents. One reason for this is because dealer-owned agents have stronger bargaining power enabling the high-risk insured to obtain a “better” deal on their 1 We can observe this directly from the unconditional correlation. To control the heterogeneity of the sample, in our empirical results, we will report the conditional correlation in Table 6 after controlling for the related variables. 2 Dealer-owned agents may understand more about the risk type of their customers than other agents or sellers of insurance. They may have longstanding relationships with their customers from selling cars. Otherwise, they could also predict the risk type of their customers not only from the individual characteristics of the insurance contracts, but also by observing the customers’ preferences and needs regarding a vehicle when they choose the vehicle. 3 contracts. This is especially the case when they consider the ongoing purchase of contracts in subsequent years. In such cases, high-risk customers might be more likely to be involved in an accident, and thus they should be charged a higher premium as a penalty if an accident really does occur and a claim is made in the previous year. In practice, the subsequent contracts sold by dealer-owned agents seldom reflect the punishments recorded in accident records3. The other reason is that dealer-owned agents may promise to provide “better” service for the insured when they have their cars repaired. Thus, dealer-owned agents may attract more high-risk insured to purchase high-coverage policies. Moreover, high-coverage policies sold through the dealer-owned agents may result in more claims for insurance companies. Repair shops owned by car dealers may have an incentive to augment the work to increase their revenues, especially for those car owners who not only repair the cars at their repair shops, but who also purchase insurance from them. On the one hand, they are very clear about who has high coverage contracts and how those high coverage contracts can cover the loss from an accident, as compared with the case of an insured who is without any dealer-owned agent standing by him. On the other hand, only repair shops can really comprehend how damaged the car is from an accident, and how much work is needed to restore the car. Because repairing a car is such a professional task, if the insurance companies want to audit the claim, they should devote more efforts and funds to this channel than to other channels. When the cost of the audit is too high to cover the benefit derived from auditing the claim, the insurance companies will not bother to audit the claim4. This is one of the reasons why the insurance companies will devote less effort to auditing the claims resulting from the contracts sold by the dealer-owned agents. The other ironic reason is that insurance companies usually have to tolerate this type of corruption between the insured and the supplier simply to avoid losing business, since repair shops owned by car dealerships are the major distribution channels for 3 This description comes from an interview with a manager of an insurance company. This is also true when the insurance companies underwrite. If dealer-owned agents comprehend the type of their customer, and if they hide some of the underwriting information, the insurance companies will not necessarily underwrite clearly and costs may exceed benefits. 4 4 automobile insurance in Taiwan.5 In some cases, insurance companies may even pay claims under certain amounts without performing an inspection. Thus, dealer-owned agents could have both the motive and the ability to lie and induce the over-use of car-repair expenditures from insurance claims. According to Alger and Ma (2003), dishonest car dealers and repair shops owned by car dealerships (i.e., the providers) always lie when the insurance contracts are not collusion-proof. Since insurance companies may audit them less, they should be more likely to induce more augmented claims involving higher coverage than in the case of insurance sold through other channels. Therefore, we hypothesize that automobile insurance policies sold through dealer-owned agents might suffer from more severe problems of asymmetric information. We expect the conditional dependence to be greater in the group of dealer-owned agents than when other channels are involved. We follow Chiappori and Salanie’s (2000) approach and perform a preliminary test of the conditional dependence between the choice of coverage and the occurrence of the claim. The empirical evidence from this methodology shows that there seems to be a higher positive conditional correlation in insurance policies sold by the dealer-owned agents than in those sold through other marketing channels. However, we can only compare the values of the conditional correlation coefficients for each of those channels using this method, and we hardly perform a formal test6 to prove whether the contracts from the dealer-owned agents suffer more severe asymmetric information problems than those from other marketing channels. To complete the test of our hypothesis, we also adopt a methodology similar to that of Dionne, Gourieroux and Vanasse (2001), i.e., a two-stage method to test the conditional dependence between the choice of coverage and the occurrence of the claim. The main benefit in this research from using 5 The main distribution intermediaries of automobile insurance in Taiwan are the direct writers and car dealers. Car dealers write more than 40 percent of the automobile insurance policies in Taiwan. Therefore, repair shops owned by car dealers have very strong bargaining power in claim settlements. 6 We have designed an informal test which is introduced in Section 2 as a robust test of the methodology of Chiappori and Salanie (2000). 5 this method is that we can test whether the asymmetric information problems are more severe when they go through dealer-owned agent channels than through other direct channels. Because the choice of coverage and the occurrence of claims may interact with each other, we engage in two different models in the two-stage methodology while we test for the conditional dependency. We estimate the probability of the occurrence of a claim in the first stage, and then perform a regression on the choice of coverage in the second stage in one of the models. Furthermore, we estimate the probability of the choice of coverage in the first stage, and then perform a regression on the occurrence of the claim in the second stage in the other model. In the former, we test our hypothesis through the cross term between the dealer-owned agent dummy and the occurrence of the claim dummy in the second stage. In the latter, we test our hypothesis through the cross term between the dealer-owned agent dummy and the choice of coverage dummy in the second stage. Again, all of the evidence from the two-stage method, regardless of which one is modeled, supports our hypothesis. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the data and the methodology used. In Section 3, the main empirical results are presented. Section 4 concludes the paper and provides recommendations for further research. 2. Data and Methodology To empirically analyze the asymmetric information problems in Taiwan’s automobile insurance market, we collected individual-level data as well as provider-level data from a large automobile insurance company that controls over 30 percent of the market share of automobile insurance in Taiwan. The research data included 61,642 and 64,234 observations in 1999 and 2000, respectively. Since type C coverage was first introduced to Taiwan in 1999, we employed data only in the policy years 1999 and 2000 in order to control for the market’s learning effect. It is easier to detect the existence of asymmetric information in the early stages when insurance companies offer alternative 6 products to sort the insured. One possible reason why Chiappori and Salanie (2000) did not find evidence to support the existence of asymmetric information in the French automobile insurance market is because that market was already well-developed. The asymmetric information problem might exist in the early stages of insurance, as described by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976), but could be solved prior to the mature stage, since insurance companies have many years to learn from their underwriting results. Thus, Chiappori and Salanie’s empirical results (2000) and Rothschild and Stiglitz’s theoretical models (1976) could be reconciled if we can find evidence to support the existence of asymmetric information in the early stages of an emerging insurance market. We believe that the comprehensive automobile insurance market in Taiwan provides us with a natural experiment to investigate this proposition. In order to conduct the empirical testing, we used two methods to examine whether providers induce asymmetric information problems. In this paper, the first method basically follows Chiappori and Salanie’s (2000) empirical model to test for the conditional dependence between the choice of coverage and the occurrence of a claim. We separate the data into two groups: insurance contracts sold by the dealer-owned agents and those sold through other marketing channels. For each group, we run a pair of probit models and then test the conditional dependence. The probit models are as follows: Pr ob(cov erage 1) X i c i , and (1) Pr ob(accident 1) X i a i , (2) where X i is the variable for the insured’s information, c and a are the regressor coefficient vectors, and i and i are error terms. 7 Since both types A and B cover non-collision claims and type C covers only collision claims, we classify types A and B as high coverage and type C as low coverage. When an individual chooses comprehensive coverage automobile insurance of type A or B, then cov erage 1 ; otherwise cov erage 0 . It should be noted that we do not use all claims when defining the variable accident . we only examine claims involving a collision with at least two cars. Instead, It is important to recognize that we can observe all the claims but may not be able to observe all the car accidents. Since types A and B have broader coverage than type C, the insured with types A or B might report more claims than those with type C. Thus, accidents involving insured with types A or B may be more observable than those with type C. To avoid a potential bias caused by unobservable accidents in type C, we employ the same criteria to identify a claim for all policies, i.e., accident 1 when an individual files a claim caused by a collision with at least two cars; otherwise accident 0 . We further define accident 1 by using three monetary thresholds: a claim amount above NT$0, a claim amount of more than NT$10,000 and a claim amount greater than NT$20,000. It should be noted that the monetary threshold may influence the existence of asymmetric information, since insurance companies usually pay more attention to claims involving larger monetary amounts. The estimators of i and i can be calculated as follows: ( X i c ) ( X i c ) yi (1 yi ) ( X i c ) ( X i c ) ( X i a ) (X i a ) , ˆi E ( i | zi ) z i (1 z i ) ( X i a ) ( X i a ) ˆi E ( i | yi ) (3) (4) where and are the density and cumulative distribution functions of N (0,1) ; and yi and z i represent coverage and accident, respectively. 8 To test the conditional dependence of ˆi and ̂ i , we follow Chiappori and Salanie (2000) and use a statistic:7 n W ( ˆiˆi ) 2 i 1 n ˆ ˆ i 1 2 i (5) 2 i W is distributed asymptotically as 2 (1) . We test its significance under the null hypothesis of cov( i , i ) 0 . We predict that insurance policies purchased through the dealer-owned agents suffer more severe asymmetric information. Hence, we intend to investigate whether the relationship between coverage and the occurrence of an accident ( A ) is greater in the dealer-owned agent group than through the other channels ( NA ). However, merely comparing the value of A and NA does nothing to test our hypothesis. To perform a robust analysis of Chiappori and Salanie’s method (2000), we design another test by creating a new variable, Ŵi , which uses the estimates of the error terms ( ˆi and ̂ i ) in the pair of probit models: Wˆ i ˆiˆi (6) ˆi 2ˆi 2 We further let Di 1 when Wˆ i 1 , and Di 0 when Wˆ i 1 . We run another probit regression with D as the dependent variable. The regressors here include the independent dummy variables from the former regression model as well as a new variable, “empeno,” which denotes the 7 In Chiappori and Salanie’s (2000) empirical data set, because the difference in the lengths of policies comes from the mismatch of the policy year and calendar year, the w-statistic in their research requires a weight. Since our data are calculated on a policy-year basis, the w-statistic does not require the weight factor. 9 contracts sold by the car dealers. The model can be written as: Pr ob( Di 1) 0 1 empenoi 2 carage0 i 3 carage1i 4 carage2 i 5 carage3i 6 carage 4 i 7 carage5 i 8 carage6 i 9 carage7 i 10 carage8 i 11 carage9 i 12 carage10 i 13 carage11i 14 sexfi 15 marria i 16 city i 17 areani 18 areas i 19 areaeast i (7) 20 catpcd _ 1i 21 catpcd _ 2 i 22 tramak _ ni 23 tramak _ f i 24 tramak _ hi 25 tramak _ t i 26 tarmak _ ci 27 age2 i 28 age3i 29 age4 i All the definitions of the variables that appear in the above regression are reported in Table 1. We test whether 1 is significantly positive and use it as evidence to support the existence of provider-induced asymmetric information. Indeed, Equation (7) is a robustness check of whether the results from the previous model still hold after controlling for other variables. The second method is similar to Dionne, Gourieroux and Vanasse’s (2001) model. We test the asymmetric information problems in two stages. Because the two decision variables, the choice of coverage and the occurrence of claims, may interact with each other, we build two different models. In one model, we estimate the occurrence of a claim using a probit regression in the first stage: Prob(accident i 1 X 1i ) ( X 1i ) (8) where the definition of accident is consistent with our first method in equation (2). X 1i is the same as X i in equations (1) and (2), too. In the second stage, we regress the choice of coverage by means of the following probit regression: P r o (bc o ev r a gi e 1 a c icˆd e ni ,t a c c i d ei ,na tc c i d ei n D t i , X 2i ) ( 1a c icˆd e ni t 2 a c c i d ei n t 3 a c c i d ei n D t i X 2i 4 ) (9) where the definition of cov erage is also consistent with that in equation (1) using the first method. 10 acciˆdent is the estimator from the first-stage estimation. Di 1 when the contract is sold by the dealer-owned agent, otherwise Di 0 . X 2 i includes all variables in X 1i except for the area dummy variables ( arean , areas , areaeast ) and city variables ( city )8. We test whether the conditional dependency between the occurrence of a claim and the choice of coverage is more severe in the channel of dealer-owned agents based on whether the coefficient 3 is significantly positive. In the other model, we estimate the choice of coverage by means of a probit regression in the first stage: Prob (cov eragei 1 X 3i ) ( X 3i ) (10) where the definition of cov erage is the same as before. X 3i is the same as X 2 i in equation (9). In the second stage, we regress the occurrence of the claim by means of the following probit regression: P r o (ba c c i d ei n t1 c o veˆr a gi e, c o ve r a gi ,ec o ve r a gi e Di , X 4i ) ( 5 c o veˆr a gi e 6 c o ve r a gi e 7 c o ve r a gi e Di X 4i 8 ) (11) where cov êrage is the estimator from the estimation of equation (10) in the first stage. The definitions of accident and Di are both the same as before, and X 4 i is the same as X 1i in equation (8). We test whether the conditional dependency between the choice of coverage and the occurrence of a claim is more severe in the channel of dealer-owned agents based on whether the coefficient 7 is significantly positive. (Insert Table 1 Here) 8 The reason why the area dummy variables and city variables are included in the regression which estimates the occurrence of a claim, but are not included in the regression which estimates the choice of coverage, is that the location factors could really affect the occurrence of an accident. However, the insurance companies in Taiwan still do not take them into consideration when they calculate the premium for the contracts until then. So, the choice of coverage will not be affected by them. 11 3. Empirical Results The summary statistics for all the variables are displayed in Tables 2 to 5. From Tables 2 to 5, which report the statistics for the data, we observe that the means of the claim amounts and the coverage levels from the dealer-owned agents are much greater than those from other marketing channels in both years. (Insert Table 2-5 Here) The empirical results based on our first method are the same as in Chiappori and Salanie (2000) and are displayed in Table 6. In a way that is consistent with our hypothesis, we find that the correlation coefficients ( ) are all positive. Furthermore, the statistics ( W ) show that the correlation between the choice of coverage and the occurrence of a claim are significantly different from zero. The above empirical evidence demonstrates that there do exist asymmetric information problems in the insurance market. Furthermore, we find that the correlation coefficients ( ) decrease with respect to an increase in the monetary threshold. This result is predictable, since the insurer will pay more attention to auditing a claim with a larger monetary amount or to underwriting an insured who may produce a larger claim. (Insert Table 6 Here) While Chiappori and Salanie (2000) and Dionne, Gourieroux, and Vanasse (2001) have found no evidence to support the existence of asymmetric information using data from the Canadian and French insurance markets, our results do find evidence to support the existence of such asymmetric information 12 in the Taiwanese insurance market. It should be noted that our results actually do not refute, but rather supplement, the literature in explaining why asymmetric information exists in some insurance markets but not in others. Underwriting systems can serve as an essential tool for insurance companies to overcome asymmetric information problems. For newly-written business, insurance companies may not have enough information related to the insured’s risk, as suggested by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976). Insurance companies should thus collect more useful information year by year and use the data to classify the insured. Eventually, insurance companies may learn to adopt various tools to control the asymmetric information problems well enough for the statistical results to reject their existence, as found by Chiappori and Salanie (2000) and Dionne, Gourieroux, and Vanasse (2001). However, it may take years for insurance companies to establish such effective underwriting systems. Compared to the insurance markets in Canada and France, the insurance market in Taiwan is still in an emerging-market stage. Specifically, some critical underwriting factors used in well-established insurance markets have not been employed in the Taiwanese insurance market. For example, driving records are not yet used for underwriting and pricing because insurance companies do not have access to the database of driving records. Another important issue of concern is that the provider’s moral hazard may make it more difficult for insurance companies to implement an effective underwriting system. High-level executives reveal that insurance companies in Taiwan frequently give the insured credit for their experience rating but waive the penalties in relation to experience rating due to both marketing competition and pressure from the dealer-owned agents. Thus, in an emerging market, such as the comprehensive automobile insurance market in Taiwan, insurance companies may either not have adopted some important underwriting factors or may lack the discipline to do so. Therefore, we can observe the existence of asymmetric information in the Taiwanese insurance market, even though Chiappori and Salanie (2000) and Dionne, Gourieroux, and 13 Vanasse (2001) could not find such evidence in the Canadian and French insurance markets. Indeed, the imperfections in the underwriting systems of insurance companies may also be the critical reason why we observe the existence of provider-induced asymmetric information. In addition, the correlations between coverage and claims in automobile insurance sold by dealer-owned agents versus non-dealer-owned agents are shown in Table 7. From Table 7, we find that A is generally higher than NA in almost all cases.9 The evidence shows that providers may contribute at least partially to the asymmetric information problems in the market; and that the asymmetric information problems in insurance written by the dealer-owned agents are more severe than those written through other marketing channels. (Insert Table 7 Here) It is interesting to further point out that the differences in A and NA also decrease with respect to an increase in the monetary threshold. This evidence coincides with our inferences regarding the auditing and underwriting tendencies of insurance companies. The insurance companies might be less willing to audit or underwrite when the costs exceed the benefits of doing so. Thus they will apply less stringent auditing and underwriting to insurance policies sold through dealer-owned agents. However, for claims—as well as potential claims—involving larger monetary amounts, the benefits may exceed the costs of auditing and underwriting, and the insurer will therefore employ more stringent criteria regardless of whether or not the policy is written through dealer-owned agents, since no insurer will tolerate any hidden actions by the provider that damage the insurer’s profits. Thus, we might observe that the provider-induced asymmetric information is reduced in the case of larger claims. 9 A NA in the three groups— claim 0 , claim 10000 , and claim 20000 --are, respectively, 0.09, 0.07, and 0.06 in 1999 and 0.09, 0.07, and 0.03 in 2000. 14 The results of our robustness check for the method that is the same as that adopted by Chiappori and Salanie (2000) are reported in Table 8. Table 8 displays the coefficients of the dependent variables of the probit regression involving Equation (7). The conclusions of these analyses are similar to those of our previous analysis. In terms of the year panels and the threshold claim amounts, the coefficients of the dealer-owned agents (empeno) are generally positive and significantly different from zero. (Insert Table 8 Here) The empirical results using our second method which is similar to the approach adopted by Dionne, Gourieroux and Vanasse (2001) are displayed in Table 9. All the outcomes in Table 9 are consistent with the results from our first method. Based on the coefficients of 2 and 6 , which are significantly positive, we can confirm that the asymmetric information problems exist in the comprehensive automobile insurance market in Taiwan. The coefficients for 3 and 7 are significantly positive which means that the positively conditional dependency between the choice of coverage and the occurrence of a claim is higher in the case of the policies written through dealer-owned agents than through other means. This evidence supports our hypothesis, too. We also control for the threshold of the amounts claimed in the empirical tests, the results of which appear in Table 9. Again, we find that the larger the amount of the claim, the less severe the asymmetric information problems will be. This is especially true when policies are sold through dealer-owned agents. These outcomes can be explained by the extent to which the stringency of the auditing or underwriting varies with the amount of the claim. (Insert Table 9 Here) 15 4. Conclusion In this paper we examine the existence of provider-induced asymmetric information in the insurance market. The data for comprehensive automobile insurance in Taiwan provide a unique opportunity to test our hypothesis. Because dealer-owned agents could induce both adverse selection and moral hazard problems in the automobile insurance market, the asymmetric information problems arising where policies are sold through the dealer-owned agents might be more severe than those arising because of policies sold through other marketing channels. From our empirical results based on Chiappori and Salanie’s (2000) method, the correlation coefficient between the coverage and claims in relation to insurance written through dealer-owned agents ( A ) is generally higher than that written through the other channels ( NA ). The robustness check of this method also demonstrates that insurance through dealer-owned agents carries a significantly high correlation between the coverage and the claim. Other empirical results of ours that are similar to those of Dionne, Gourieroux and Vanasse’s (2001) model that also supports the view that the conditional dependency between the coverage and the claims is more significantly positive when the policies are written through the channels of the dealer-owned agents. This can be proved from the evidence that 3 and 7 are both significantly positive. In general, our empirical findings are consistent with our hypothesis that providers could induce asymmetric information problem. Furthermore, asymmetric information problems involving policies written through dealer-owned agents are more severe than those concerned with policies written through other marketing channels. While Chiappori and Salanie (2000) and Dionne, Gourieroux, and Vanasse (2001) have found no evidence in the data based on the Canadian and French insurance markets, our results support the existence of asymmetric information in the Taiwanese automobile insurance market. In an emerging insurance market, such as the comprehensive automobile insurance market in Taiwan, the existence of asymmetric information problems may result from either imperfections in the underwriting or pricing 16 systems or an inability to implement effective underwriting systems. In addition, provider-induced asymmetric information problems may make it more difficult for insurance companies to implement effective underwriting systems, since car dealers control the major marketing channels for the comprehensive automobile insurance market in Taiwan. 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Wilson, C.A., “A Model of Insurance Markets with Incomplete Information,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 16 (1977), pp. 167-207. 20 Table 1 Definitions of the Variables Variable coverage( Definition y) accident( z ) a dummy variable that equals 1 when an individual chooses a type A or B policy, otherwise it equals 0 a dummy variable that equals 1 when an individual’s claim is caused by a collision and the claim amount is above the threshold amount, otherwise it equals 0 carage0 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is new, otherwise it equals 0 carage1 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is one year old, otherwise it equals 0 carage2 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is two years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage3 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is three years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage4 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is four years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage5 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is five years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage6 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is six years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage7 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is seven years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage8 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is eight years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage9 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is nine years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage10 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is ten years old, otherwise it equals 0 carage11 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is eleven years old, otherwise it equals 0 sexf a dummy variable that equals 1 when the owner of the car is female, otherwise it equals 0 married a dummy variable that equals 1 when the owner of car is married, otherwise it equals 0 city a dummy variable that equals 1 when the owner of the car lives in a city, otherwise it equals 0 arean a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is registered in the north of Taiwan, otherwise it equals 0 areas a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is registered in the south of Taiwan, otherwise it equals 0 areaeast a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is registered in the east of Taiwan, otherwise it equals 0 catpcd_1 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is a sedan and is for non-commercial or for long-term rental purposes, otherwise it equals 0 catpcd_2 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the car is a small freight-truck and is for non-commercial purposes or for business use, otherwise it equals 0 tramak_i i=n,f,h,t,c, a dummy variable that equals 1when the trademark of the car is the assigned brand, otherwise it equals 0 age2 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the insured is between the ages of 30 and 25, otherwise it equals 0 age3 a dummy variable that equals 1when the insured is between the ages of 60 and 30, otherwise it equals 0 age4 a dummy variable that equals 1 when the insured is over the age of 21 60, otherwise it equals 0 Table 2 Summary Statistics for Data on Dealer-owned Agents in 1999 Variable N Mean Std Dev Minimum Maximum accident 21615 0.329216 0.469939 0 1.000000 coverage 21615 0.684201 0.464844 0 1.000000 carage0 21615 0.715244 0.451309 0 1.000000 carage1 21615 0.163081 0.369448 0 1.000000 carage2 21615 0.066343 0.248886 0 1.000000 carage3 21615 0.026186 0.159690 0 1.000000 carage4 21615 0.012399 0.110660 0 1.000000 carage5 21615 0.007865 0.088337 0 1.000000 carage6 21615 0.004673 0.068199 0 1.000000 carage7 21615 0.002082 0.045581 0 1.000000 carage8 21615 0.000879 0.029636 0 1.000000 carage9 21615 0.000139 0.011781 0 1.000000 carage10 21615 0.000278 0.016659 0 1.000000 carage11 21615 0.000139 0.011781 0 1.000000 sexf 21615 0.690955 0.462110 0 1.000000 married 21615 0.452324 0.497733 0 1.000000 city 21615 0.483506 0.499740 0 1.000000 arean 21615 0.418136 0.493264 0 1.000000 areas 21615 0.277076 0.447565 0 1.000000 areaeast 21615 0.028221 0.165608 0 1.000000 catpcd_1 21615 0.976313 0.152076 0 1.000000 catpcd_2 21615 0.023687 0.152076 0 1.000000 tramak_n 21615 0.084201 0.277695 0 1.000000 tramak_f 21615 0.112052 0.315438 0 1.000000 tramak_h 21615 0.07814 0.268398 0 1.000000 tramak_t 21615 0.56049 0.496339 0 1.000000 tramak_c 21615 0.092297 0.289452 0 1.000000 age2 21615 0.109785 0.312629 0 1.000000 age3 21615 0.834744 0.371420 0 1.000000 age4 21615 0.018367 0.134277 0 1.000000 22 Table 3 Summary Statistics for Data on Non-dealer-owned Agents in 1999 Variable N Mean Std Dev Minimum Maximum accident 40027 0.219677 0.414033 0 1.000000 coverage 40027 0.537837 0.498573 0 1.000000 carage0 40027 0.266120 0.441934 0 1.000000 carage1 40027 0.293102 0.455191 0 1.000000 carage2 40027 0.187523 0.390336 0 1.000000 carage3 40027 0.101806 0.302397 0 1.000000 carage4 40027 0.069028 0.253506 0 1.000000 carage5 40027 0.042596 0.201948 0 1.000000 carage6 40027 0.021486 0.144998 0 1.000000 carage7 40027 0.010493 0.101897 0 1.000000 carage8 40027 0.003972 0.062902 0 1.000000 carage9 40027 0.001949 0.044101 0 1.000000 carage10 40027 0.000999 0.031597 0 1.000000 carage11 40027 0.000150 0.012243 0 1.000000 sexf 40027 0.595773 0.490748 0 1.000000 married 40027 0.602368 0.489415 0 1.000000 city 40027 0.538661 0.498509 0 1.000000 arean 40027 0.488545 0.499875 0 1.000000 areas 40027 0.270717 0.444336 0 1.000000 areaeast 40027 0.040997 0.198287 0 1.000000 catpcd_1 40027 0.969321 0.172450 0 1.000000 catpcd_2 40027 0.025408 0.157362 0 1.000000 tramak_n 40027 0.183576 0.387143 0 1.000000 tramak_f 40027 0.157119 0.363917 0 1.000000 tramak_h 40027 0.083369 0.276442 0 1.000000 tramak_t 40027 0.210533 0.407692 0 1.000000 tramak_c 40027 0.128988 0.335191 0 1.000000 age2 40027 0.119344 0.324197 0 1.000000 age3 40027 0.818548 0.385398 0 1.000000 age4 40027 0.021461 0.144915 0 1.000000 23 Table 4 Summary Statistics for Data on Dealer-owned Agents in 2000 Variable N Mean Std Dev Minimum Maximum accident 21533 0.414527 0.492652 0 1.000000 coverage 21533 0.767798 0.422247 0 1.000000 carage0 21533 0.700274 0.458149 0 1.000000 carage1 21533 0.146612 0.353727 0 1.000000 carage2 21533 0.074583 0.262724 0 1.000000 carage3 21533 0.037199 0.189253 0 1.000000 carage4 21533 0.020620 0.142110 0 1.000000 carage5 21533 0.009381 0.096402 0 1.000000 carage6 21533 0.005526 0.074136 0 1.000000 carage7 21533 0.003390 0.058128 0 1.000000 carage8 21533 0.001393 0.037301 0 1.000000 carage9 21533 0.000060 0.024564 0 1.000000 carage10 21533 0.000139 0.011803 0 1.000000 carage11 21533 0.000279 0.016691 0 1.000000 sexf 21533 0.722612 0.447720 0 1.000000 married 21533 0.551804 0.497321 0 1.000000 city 21533 0.512237 0.499862 0 1.000000 arean 21533 0.412065 0.492218 0 1.000000 areas 21533 0.289648 0.453610 0 1.000000 areaeast 21533 0.028886 0.167490 0 1.000000 catpcd_1 21533 0.980495 0.138295 0 1.000000 catpcd_2 21533 0.019505 0.138295 0 1.000000 tramak_n 21533 0.031579 0.174882 0 1.000000 tramak_f 21533 0.114290 0.318170 0 1.000000 tramak_h 21533 0.090094 0.286323 0 1.000000 tramak_t 21533 0.643710 0.478914 0 1.000000 tramak_c 21533 0.022291 0.147633 0 1.000000 age2 21533 0.095528 0.293949 0 1.000000 age3 21533 0.876701 0.328788 0 1.000000 age4 21533 0.014350 0.118932 0 1.000000 24 Table 5 Summary Statistics for Data on Non-dealer-owned Agents in 2000 Variable N Mean Std Dev Minimum Maximum accident 42701 0.230323 0.421044 0 1.000000 coverage 42701 0.522798 0.499486 0 1.000000 carage0 42701 0.225405 0.417853 0 1.000000 carage1 42701 0.239222 0.426613 0 1.000000 carage2 42701 0.204866 0.403609 0 1.000000 carage3 42701 0.135454 0.342211 0 1.000000 carage4 42701 0.080794 0.272522 0 1.000000 carage5 42701 0.054636 0.227271 0 1.000000 carage6 42701 0.032482 0.177278 0 1.000000 carage7 42701 0.014777 0.120661 0 1.000000 carage8 42701 0.007494 0.086244 0 1.000000 carage9 42701 0.002787 0.052717 0 1.000000 carage10 42701 0.001124 0.033509 0 1.000000 carage11 42701 0.000679 0.026052 0 1.000000 sexf 42701 0.618393 0.485787 0 1.000000 married 42701 0.703496 0.456721 0 1.000000 city 42701 0.546990 0.497793 0 1.000000 arean 42701 0.505140 0.499979 0 1.000000 areas 42701 0.256411 0.436656 0 1.000000 areaeast 42701 0.042973 0.202799 0 1.000000 catpcd_1 42701 0.971125 0.167458 0 1.000000 catpcd_2 42701 0.024215 0.153718 0 1.000000 tramak_n 42701 0.178520 0.382955 0 1.000000 tramak_f 42701 0.142549 0.349617 0 1.000000 tramak_h 42701 0.089272 0.285139 0 1.000000 tramak_t 42701 0.230018 0.420849 0 1.000000 tramak_c 42701 0.124400 0.330041 0 1.000000 age2 42701 0.104260 0.305601 0 1.000000 age3 42701 0.862673 0.344196 0 1.000000 age4 42701 0.019180 0.137159 0 1.000000 25 Table 6 Conditional Correlation Between Coverage and Claims in 1999 and 2000 Year 1999 claim 0 claim 10000 claim 20000 Year 2000 claim 0 claim 10000 claim 20000 W 0.2786*** 130.919*** 0.2490*** 1117.44*** 0.1336*** 3652.82*** W 0.3793*** 98.5284*** 0.3406*** 411.491*** 0.1266*** 5029.32*** Note: The significance level of 99% is denoted by *** The significance level of 95% is denoted by ** The significance level of 90% is denoted by * 26 Table 7 Correlation Between Coverage and Claims in Automobile Insurance Sold by Dealer-owned Agents Versus Non-dealer-owned Agents Panel A : Year 1999 Dealer-owned Agent A WA NA WNA correlation coefficient statistic-W correlation coefficient statistic-W 0.30118*** claim 0 0.26814*** claim 10000 0.17076*** claim 20000 Panel B : Year 2000 382.932*** 0.21408*** 3.31494* 2193.68*** 0.19695*** 52.4969*** 5659.77*** 0.10586*** 418.631*** Dealer-owned Agent claim 0 claim 10000 claim 20000 Non-dealer-owned Agent Non-dealer-owned Agent A WA NA WNA correlation coefficient statistic-W correlation coefficient statistic-W 0.35402*** 10.8775*** 0.26318*** 30.949*** 0.30582*** 2085.74*** 0.23057*** 29.2463*** 0.11482*** 9921.98*** 0.08706*** 169.926*** Note: The significance level of 99% is denoted by *** The significance level of 95% is denoted by ** The significance level of 90% is denoted by * 27 Table 8 Robust Analysis of the Correlation Between Coverage and Claims in Automobile Insurance Sold by Dealer-owned Agents Versus Non-dealer-owned Agents Panel A : Year 1999 Intercept -0.2950 claim 0 claim 10000 -0.6403*** claim 20000 -1.4290*** carage5 -0.1695 claim 0 claim 10000 0.0517 claim 20000 0.6294*** sexf -0.0265** claim 0 claim 10000 -0.0818*** claim 20000 -0.0891*** catpcd_2 0.0396 claim 0 claim 10000 0.3155*** claim 20000 0.7511*** age3 -0.1402*** claim 0 claim 10000 0.1512*** claim 20000 -0.1485*** empeno carage0 carage1 carage2 carage3 carage4 0.0236** 0.0754 0.1679 0.1586 0.0886 0.0267 0.0386*** 0.1199 0.2045 0.2220 0.1849 0.0836 0.1520*** 0.3662* 0.6645*** 0.7105*** 0.6571*** 0.5256*** carage6 carage7 carage8 carage9 carage10 carage11 -0.0949 -0.2395 -0.2513 -0.2350 -0.0820 -0.7982* -0.0256 -0.0735 -0.1512 -0.2272 -0.1695 -0.1217 0.4833** 0.4829** 0.2844 0.5883** 0.1552 -0.2128 married city arean areas areaeast catpcd_1 0.0404*** 0.0777*** -0.0191 0.0878*** -0.1208*** 0.6272*** 0.0014 0.0731*** 0.0321** 0.0533*** -0.0695** 0.9388*** -0.0252** -0.0041 0.0350*** -0.0395*** -0.1228*** 1.3422*** tramak_n tramak_f tramak_h tramak_t tramak_c age2 0.2024*** 0.0309* 0.0066 0.0118 0.1456*** -0.0016 0.1112*** 0.0262 0.0226 0.0096 0.1334*** 0.0581* 0.2763*** -0.1312*** 0.0327 -0.0979*** 0.1171*** 0.0720** age4 -0.2236*** -0.2837*** -0.2358*** 28 Table 8 (Cont.) Panel B : Year 2000 Intercept empeno carage0 carage1 carage2 carage3 ` 0.0070 -0.1589 0.0702 0.0877 0.1012 -0.0281 0.0279** -0.2273 -0.0539 0.0960 0.1005 -0.0789 0.1907*** 0.0640 0.3933 0.6969* 0.6140* 0.4730 carage5 carage6 carage7 carage8 carage9 carage10 carage11 -0.1785 claim 0 claim 10000 -0.1084 claim 20000 0.5431 -0.2331 -0.0588 -0.3614 -0.2412 -0.2462 -0.9864** -0.0841 -0.1207 -0.1324 -0.4437 -0.0513 -0.2299 0.5268 0.2713 0.3053 -0.1552 0.1859 -0.2673 married city arean areas areaeast catpcd_1 -0.0046 0.0027 -0.1217*** -0.0297** -0.1895*** 0.4935*** -0.0241* -0.0008 -0.0516*** 0.0247* -0.0822*** 0.7366*** -0.1111*** 0.0198* 0.1391*** 0.0706*** 0.0105 1.2216*** tramak_n tramak_f tramak_h tramak_t tramak_c age2 0.1953*** 0.1320*** 0.0986*** 0.0450*** 0.0441** -0.0353 0.0827*** 0.0751*** 0.0635*** 0.0460*** 0.0897*** -0.0514 -0.0519*** -0.1859*** -0.1506*** -0.1322*** -0.1796*** -0.1227*** 0.2074 claim 0 claim 10000 -0.1169 claim 20000 -0.9124** sexf -0.0449*** claim 0 claim 10000 -0.0186* claim 20000 -0.0846*** catpcd_2 -0.0859 claim 0 claim 10000 0.1249 claim 20000 0.8146*** age3 -0.2067*** claim 0 claim 10000 -0.1512*** claim 20000 -0.3045*** age4 -0.2102*** -0.1717*** -0.3746*** Note: The significance level of 99% is denoted by *** The significance level of 95% is denoted by ** The significance level of 90% is denoted by * 29 Table 9 Coefficients of the Correlation Between Coverage and Claims in Automobile Insurance Using the Two-stage Method for Equations (9) and (11) Coefficients First stage: estimate occurrence of claim First stage: estimate choice of coverage Second stage: regress on choice of coverage Second stage: regress on occurrence of claim 1 3 2 5 6 7 Year 1999 claim 0 claim 10000 claim 20000 -1.4968*** 0.6036*** 0.3556*** -1.0592 0.6077*** 0.2400*** -1.6535*** 0.7022*** 0.3159*** -0.8765 0.6819*** 0.1922*** 2.4143*** 0.6613*** 0.1868*** -0.4220 0.5833*** 0.0971*** Year 2000 claim 0 claim 10000 claim 20000 -1.5402*** 0.7308*** 0.4450*** 0.1561 0.7502*** 0.3081*** -1.7469*** 0.8456*** 0.4161*** 0.4298 0.8363*** 0.2905*** -1.8007*** 0.7958*** 0.2990*** 0.5523 0.7178*** 0.1682*** Note: The significance level of 99% is denoted by *** The significance level of 95% is denoted by ** The significance level of 90% is denoted by * 30
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