A QUALITATIVE RESPONSE MODEL ANALYSIS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF RISK-ATTITUDE OF STUDENTS IN THE COLLEGIATE LEVEL FOR HUMAN RESOURCE EFFICIENCY In partial fulfillment of the requirements for ECOMET2 (Advanced Econometrics) School of Economics De La Salle University – Manila Submitted by : Aguila, Karina Chan, Kendrick Lee, Trisha Lim, JV Stefanie Submitted to : Dr. Cesar Rufino 6 April 2011 Chapter 1 – Introduction Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Background of the Study In the advent of technological prowess in the late 90s, technology replaced men for most of what men were hired for. Unemployment rose and bargaining power in the labor market decreased. Recruitment by the human resource managers became more stringent given the fact that they could now afford to do so. There then emerged a great incentive for men to manipulate required documents for recruitment to ease their way through the selection process. Background checks such as résumé verifications, media searches, credit checks, reference checks, and criminal history tracking were then employed by the companies to mitigate the problem. Sure enough, such devices increased costs but it would have been more costly to hire the wrong people for the job. On the other hand, these background checks could only reach the extent of verifying objective stated statements. If the matter to be verified includes, for example, an individual’s attitude, then it would be better off measured in a revealed manner than merely in a stated manner. A notable attitude that human resource managers could pay close attention to is an individual’s risk attitude—whether he is risk-averse or risk-seeking, in general. Previous literature have speculated on the relationship of risk attitudes and employment. Caves (1970) and Edwards and Heggestad (1973), among others, building on the work of Galbraith (1978, 3rd ed.), have suggested the hypothesis that more risk-averse individuals may tend to associate themselves with large monopoly firms rather than with more competitive companies. If the Chapter 1 – Introduction correlation does exist, then it would imply that new entrants in telecommunications markets, who are accustomed to operating in the competitive arena, may have an advantage over incumbents in terms of their tolerance for risk. Risk attitudes then matter as to which industry a person may choose to venture into. Thus, likewise, an applicant’s risk attitude would matter for human resource managers. For job recruitments, an applicant’s risk attitude cannot easily determined because it could again be easily manipulated by an applicant. Thus, what human resource managers could do is to find factors that affect a person’s risk attitude and utilize such information to possibly proxy for his risk attitude. Had the quest to determine risk attitude be done by companies, then there would be a cognitive bias on the side of the applicants for they will always seek to please the employer. On the other, if the study would be done by researchers such as the case of this study, incentives or disincentives for cognitive biases would not be present. 1.2 Statement of the Problem Given that the information on an individual’s risk orientation is vital for employers and that employees have the incentive to misrepresent themselves to become what the employer seeks for, is there a way to go around such an impediment? If an employer were to, let us say, instead look for the notable determinants that affect a person’s risk attitude instead of flat out asking for the individual’s risk attitude, would it produce more accurate results? Can the hypothesized determinants well represent an individual’s risk attitude? 1.3 Objectives Chapter 1 – Introduction The objectives of this study include the following: To examine the relationship between an individual’s particular set of demographics and his risk orientation To determine which of the hypothesized determinants of risk attitude actually significantly affects it To determine the possible determinants of risk attitude and the magnitude of its effect on an individual’s risk attitude To aid in the improvement of human resource employment as the applicants would not be asked of his risk attitude but of the possible factors that would affect his risk attitude instead 1.4 Scope and Limitations The study limits its scope to the university students of De La Salle Univeristy—Manila who are at the undergraduate level. Since the university body is a big pool of fresh potential new entrants into the work force, the university students, although do not represent the entire labor force, could be reasonable subjects of the study. The determinants chosen are also only applicable to the typical university students. For example, one of the dummy variables only ask for whether the respondent is single or is in a relationship. It no longer asks whether the individual is married of is widowed. Furthermore, the study is only limited to 564 observations where the sample size of 94 respondents was asked of different situational dilemmas that encompass the six possible avenues of risk orientation. The sample size of 94 may not as representatively speak for the entire population of the university as compared to when the Chapter 1 – Introduction respondents would be at least a thousand. Given the time and the resource constraint, the researchers employed convenience sampling. The six different aspects of risk orientation that were integrated in the survey questionnaire include matters on finance, recreation, social, health, career, and safety. The selected aspects does not go into the utmost detail of risk orientation in order to arrive at a compressed version of the survey questionnaire. In addition, the survey questionnaire, although well thought of, did not go under scientific study. It was merely patterned from published works in the literature. The factors chosen include for the study only include the typical possible demographics of a college student as well and these are his academic performance, extracurricular involvements, college, gender, year level, and relationship status. Thus, if such a study would be applied to a larger scope beyond university students, the survey material would have to be revised. The factors chosen are also very basic in order to easily obtain the information needed. Other more sophisticated determinants could be used for future study. The scope of the study is also focused on the Philippine setting and is thus not making use of a cross-country data set. Since risk orientations of the same cultural background and basically the same environmental factors such as that the Filipinos were once colonized for centuries, such a limitiation would then be possible for this study since the study has been pinned down to the domestic situation only. However, the results obtained through this study will only be applicable for the local Filipinos and not for other nationalities. Although the study aims to eliminate biases from the applicants through their stated claims on their risk orientation, having the respondents answer a survey is nonetheless no less stated. On the other hand, having third parties, such as the researchers, conduct the study Chapter 1 – Introduction eliminates the bias. Also, because it is only the demographics and an individual’s response to situational dilemmas that are asked for, there is less incentive to fabricate one’s answers. In a nutshell, having these scopes and limitations present, the final estimates of the model that is to be obtained in this study are not to be deemed perfectly conclusive. This is because these estimates may be subject to disturbances in the usual tendencies of Filipinos or university students. Results should then be taken with caution. 1.5 Significance of the Study The study on the determinants of risk-attitude of students in the collegiate level can expedite and facilitate the recruitment process of human resource managers in such a way that the problem that the applicants have a strong incentive to commit to self-serving bias is reduced, if not eliminated. If the study turns out successful in such a way that there is truly a relationship between one’s demographics and his risk orientation, then the model used in the study could also serve as a pattern for other relevant attributes that could be of interest by firms such as an individual’s confidence level, leadership capabilities, and the like. Students, on the other hand, could apply the study on a reversed perspective such that if he would be interested in a company that would require risk-seeking individuals, then he could engage himself in activites that actually contribute to a person becoming a risk-seeking individual. For example, if the student would be interested in a very risk venturing firm and the study proves a strong correlation between risk propensity and a student’s involvement with the student government, then the student could then begin considering running for a position in the university student government. Chapter 2 – Review of Related Literature Chapter 2 Review of Related Literature Ever since Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky proposed the prospect theory, a theory against the axioms of expected utility theory, literature has been abundant on people’s risk preferences when it comes to different situations or different framings. Kimberly Edwards (1995) has enumerated studies done since the theory was proposed: Payne, Laughhunn and Crum (1984) has been able to study decisionmaking on professional managers about budget plans where results have also been consistent with the prospect theory; Arkes and Blumer (1985) has applied the prospect theory on the irrationality of human behavior on continuing the risk of a losing prospect when money is invested or a sunk cost has been incurred; Gregory (1986) has noted the predictions of the prospect theory when it comes to contingent valuation studies on changes in the environment; Chang, Nichols, and Schultz (1987) related the prospect theory on tax evasion wherein people are usually risk-averse; Budescu and Weiss (1987) looked into the shape of the utility function as described by the prospect theory; Lowenstein (1988) applied intertemporal choice in decision-making under risk; Fiegenbaum and Thomas (1988) has used the prospect theory to explain the Bowman’s risk-return paradox on firms; Diamond (1988) examined the effects of prospect theory in varying levels of probability and consequences; Qualls and Puto (1989) have related the theory to buying that depends on organizational climate; Elliot and Archibald’s (1989) study supported the theory through an experiment on framing; D’ Aveni (1989) used the theory in explaining about organizational bankruptcy; Meyer and Assuncao (1990) applied the theory on purchasing quantity decisions with risky prices; Kameda and Davis (1990) applied the theory with regards to group decisionmaking; Garland and Newport (199 1) also studied the effect of sunk costs on decision-making; Kanto, Rosenqvist, and Suvas (1992) has used the theory on explaining risk-aversion in gambling in a racetrack. Many other studies have been applying the theory thereafter and it has been found that the theory has been quite consistent on predicting behavior or decision-making under risk. Chapter 2 – Review of Related Literature Most studies conformed to the results done by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wherein people are risk-averse in gains & risk-seeking in losses that makes a person’s utility function an S-shape utility function. But there are also several contentions that were found in the literature. When taking into account the degree of losses, it would be seen that individuals would actually still be risk-averse amidst losses when they face extremely large losses that are out of proportion of the usual level of losses as compared to the conventional thought in the prospect theory that individuals tend to be risk-seeking when it comes to losses (Bosch-Domènech and Silvestre, 2010). Other contentions of the prospect theory involve with the S-shape utility function proposed by the prospect theory. A study of Levy & Levy (2002) showed that the case is otherwise. The utility function of individuals based on gains and losses show that they may not be risk-averse on some level of gains and they may not be risk-seeking on some level of losses. The S-shaped utility function of the prospect theory became so due to biases by the certainty effect and the probability distortion. Contentions of the entire prospect theory also exist such as the study of Nwogugu (2006) wherein it was found that the theory was proved to be wrong when it comes to the decision-making of individuals. He reasoned out that there are many other factors that affect the decision-making of individuals that was not taken into account by the prospect theory. Other studies in the literature extend the prospect theory. Some consider the time these gains or losses are received by the respondents so they discount these gains and losses in the study (Ostaszewski and Bialaszek, 2010). Aside from the probabilistic discounting, they also considered the mixing of both gains and losses in the options. Other studies extended the prospect theory to uncertain or vague options. As said by Daniel Ellsberg (1961), uncertain or vague options can have subjective probabilities such that these options can be converted into risks. These subjective probabilities though are different from each respondent because they are based on their beliefs and values with regard to the gain or loss that they are uncertain to receive. Tamura (2008) has been able to apply the prospect theory on decision-making using uncertainty wherein the probability of the gain or the loss is unknown. Along with the prospect theory, they have Chapter 2 – Review of Related Literature applied the Dempster–Shafer probability theory on estimating the expected value function of a decisionmaker. Budescu, et al (2002) has also studied decision-making under uncertainty wherein no probability can be measured and options are vague. They were able to conduct two experiments and were able to conclude these results that is against of what is predicted by the Prospect Theory: 1) people are more concerned of the precision than the probability of outcomes, 2) people seek on the vague options when it is regarding gains, 3) people are aversive on vague options when it comes to losses, and 4) there is no strong modal attitude toward the uncertainty of probability of gains and losses. Aside from these, there are many other studies dealing with uncertainty and most of them have also dealt on creating models that can predict human behavior when there is a vague or uncertain option. Most methods done by these studies are choice experiments or surveys that introduce to the respondents different situations and problems where they get to choose between options that is equivalent to the certain option in the prospect theory such as insuring earnings and options that are risky such as venturing into a new business. On the other hand, these choice experiments and surveys suffer from hypothetical bias wherein people answer or respond to these hypothetical situations on how they would want themselves to look like and not exactly how they would behave if they were really faced with that situation. Though in other cases, there isn’t enough reason or incentive for respondents to answer dishonestly in these surveys or experiments. So the bias may not be that significant to affect the results. But most literature has dealt with people in general when it comes to risk preferences. In our study, we will be taking into consideration the different characteristics of each individual and look at their differences in risk preferences given the same situations in prospect theory wherein they will be faced of the same problem but is framed in gains and losses. The researchers would survey different students in De La Salle University to see if their characteristics affect their risk preferences. The researchers believe that surveys can be used since randomly answering a survey does not give any incentives for dishonesty unlike taking a survey as required for applying for a job. Chapter 3 – Theoretical Framework Chapter 3 Theoretical Framework When faced with different problems, most decision-making involve a risky option and a certain option. And from choosing between the options, you can already tell what risk orientation a person has. But unfortunately, you won’t be able to ask your prospective employees to decide on a hypothetical problem since they would most definitely handle the problem in the way they think you want them to handle it. This study then looks into possible determinants that can affect how a person decides in such decision-making. However, there is already a theory that generalizes behavior of people in facing these problems and such theory is called the prospect theory. The prospect theory is developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky during the 1970s. It contested the famous Von Neumann and Morgenstern Expected Utility Theorem and is now deemed more precise in predicting human behavior. His study involves a simple choice experiment which will also be adapted in this study. In this experiment, people are faced with two equivalent options: a certain option and a risky option. An Asian disease affected 600 people. People can either live or die based on the program you choose. There are two programs: Option 1: If chosen, 200 people will be saved. Option 2: The program has a 33% chance that all 600 people will be saved and 66% chance that all 600 people will not be saved. In this experiment, 72% chose option 1 which is the certain option while 28% chose the risky option. However, it should be noted that both options are equivalent. Option 2 has a certainty equivalent of also 200 people which is 33% multiplied to 600. However, people Chapter 3 – Theoretical Framework generally became risk-averse at this type of problem. Then, they are faced with the similar problem: An Asian disease affected 600 people. People can either live or die based on the program you choose. There are two programs: Option 1: If chosen, 400 people will die. Option 2: There is a 66% chance that all 600 people will die and a 33% chance that 600 people will not die. In this similar experiment, 78% chose option 2 which is the risky option while 22% chose the certain option. However, such a result contested one of the axioms of the Von Neumann and Morgenstern Expected Utility Theorem. This is because both experiments are in fact just the same problem but only phrased differently. In the first option of the second experiment, 400 people will die out of 600 is just the same as 200 people will live out of 600 people. For the second option, it is more obvious that they are the same since both implies a 33% chance that the people will be saved or will not die and a 66% chance that the people will not be saved or will die. The difference between the two is just how the problem is framed. The first experiment shows the gain frame (focuses on who will be saved) while the second experiment shows the loss frame (focuses on who will die). When faced with two same problems, the Von Neumann and Morgenstern Expected Utility Theorem predicts that people have well-defined preferences and they would be consistent on their choices but what happened is people chose to be risk-averse in the gain frame and then became risk-seeking in the loss frame. Therefore, Kahneman and Tversky showed that people do not have well-defined preferences. In fact, their behavior on gains and losses can be predicted through an S-shaped Utility Function: Chapter 3 – Theoretical Framework Figure 1.1 A hypothetical value function According to introspection done by Kahneman and Tversky (1983), the subjective value of utility of consumers is a concave function for gains and a convex function for losses where the difference of subjective value of a gain/loss between lower values are greater than the difference of a gain/loss between higher values. This just means that the subjective utility you get from a gain of 1 dollar is lower when you already have $94 which would become $95 than a gain of also 1 dollar when you only have $5 which would become $6. This S-shaped function has three properties as Kahneman and Tversky explained: Firstly, it is based on changes in wealth or gain/losses and not total levels of wealth. Secondly, it is concave for gains and convex for losses which entails that we are risk-averse for gains and riskseeking for losses. And lastly, losses are steeper than gains; which is now popularly known as loss aversion wherein losses are more appealing than a possible gain. In an example, one who loses $100 loses more subjective utility than the subjective utility one gets from gaining $100. This just shows that people tend to strongly prefer to avoid losses than acquiring gains. Basically, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky predict that people are risk-averse in gains and risk-seeking in losses. Still, some people may behave differently so it is important to know which factors determine such behavior. In this study, such problems as presented by Chapter 3 – Theoretical Framework Kahneman and Tversky will also be adapted and the researchers shall see if people do generally follow the prospect theory. However, it may also be important to note the axioms of Von Neumann and Morgenstern Expected Utility Theorem since there may also be some who behaves as predicted by this theorem. This theorem has four axioms. The first axiom, which is completeness, is the axiom that is being contested by the prospect theory. It states that if you prefer option A over option B, you should always prefer option A no matter what framing or no matter what situation there is. The second axiom, which is transitivity, states that if you prefer option A over option B and prefer option B over option C, then you must also prefer option A over option C. The third axiom, which is continuity, states that if you prefer option A over option B and option B over option C and if the probability of option C is one minus the probability of option A, then you should be indifferent between option B and both option A and C. The last axiom is independence which states that if option A is preferred over option B, then you would prefer both option A and option C than both option B and option C. In this study, only the completeness axiom can be related to the situation. So if they behave as predicted by the prospect theory, then they will be against this axiom. But if they do follow the axiom, then they have well-defined and consistent preferences. So the researchers will check if whether their respondents would have consistent preferences and see if whether there are also factors determining why they behave so. Chapter 4 – Operational Framework Chapter 4 Operational Framework There are a lot factors that contribute to one’s inclination to being either a risk-seeking or a risk-averse individual. Nevertheless, for the pursuit of this study as stated earlier in introductory chapter, the researchers seeks to translate the objective information on interviewees’ demographics and credentials into information on risk orientation of that individuals. That is, effects of one’s demographics and credentials to one’s tendency to become either risk seeking or risk averse is identified. However, for us to achieve a reliable and valid outcome of the study, certain ways of generating data need to be clearly identified and considered. First, source of secondary data was ruled out as there is no data available concerning risk orientation of individuals that could represent those who would eventually undergo the hiring and recruitment process. Second is the use of survey. Although use of survey in gathering data could be inefficient in terms of the quality of data derived, where respondents would usually make declarations different from their actions in hopes to present the best of themselves, respondent’s display problems would not be a problem as in the case where risk attitude is involved. That is, respondents may be aware of what subject matter is being undertaken but they nonetheless would not know which attitude to present since there is no answer that could really reflect politically correct/best attitude. Now, in considering the use of experiment, it would prove to be an impractical one given the time constraint set for this study. Further, there is also no need to have strict controls as situations are framed differently. Thus, this leaves us with the use of survey to get respondent’s risk attitude and generate our data. Chapter 4 – Operational Framework 4.1 Survey a. SurveyDesign To operationalize the proposed study, the researchers prepared the survey questionnaire with six pairs of situations as patterned against the pair of situations Kahneman and Tversky (1979) used in confirming prospect theory where the two statements in a pair of situation differs only on how the statement is framed-either losses or gains. The researchers decided to produce six pairs of situations to include the six types of risks that an individual could possibly encounter in his existence- financial, social, recreational, health, security, and career. (see Appendix A) questionnaire The reason for this being is because tackling on only one type of risk could prove to create bias with respect to the data concerned as sometimes, risk attitudes vary with different types of risk. The respondents are presented with twelve statements or six pairs of different situations representing six types of risks are asked to choose whether they agree or disagree with each statement. To ensure validity of questions, statements are made in a way that for some statements, agreeing would mean being risk seeking while in some statements, agreeing would mean being risk-averse. Further, twelve statements are presented in a random manner such that no two statements with same situation ( only framed differently) are numbered consecutively to avoid respondents from observing that two situations are the same and merely framed differently and from stating risk attitude consistently for a pair of situation merely because they notice the trend of framing. At the beginning of questionnaire, the researchers indicated a brief phase “answer they survey using your heart and not your mind” for respondents to not treat each statement as complex problems and simply answer the survey questionnaire sincerely. However, subject to the limitations of this study, the researchers would merely use these six classifications for purposes of unbiassedness in determining the risk attitude of individuals, Chapter 4 – Operational Framework and not anymore know the effects of each independent variable(ie. Demographics) to risk orientation for each specific type of risk. Such that the researchers would treat the data generated from each respondent as six actual observations with all the independent variable being held constant for six observations and only risk attitude for each types of risk would vary. Putting this in intuitively, the researchers treated the cross-sectional data to be a panel data across entities and across six types of risks. (see Appendix _)- data.. On the otherhand, in getting the data on independent variables such as demographics and other credentials, respondents are asked to state these facts objectively. With this, the researchers are now able to gain insights on why such choices are made and chosen, if proven to be significant. b. Data Sampling For the purpose of this study, the researchers took students of De La Salle University as sample representative of those who would eventually undergo the hiring and recruitment process or of the population. Due to various discipline instilled in to different students of different colleges, the study used stratified-convenience sampling method such that the students of De La Salle University would be further be classified according to its respective colleges, from which a sample can be drawn from each college. Friends from different colleges and friends of friends were used to primarily draw respondents. However, the method is not in entirety a stratified sampling since there is no quota or certain school population proportion based on college size that needs to be satisfied per strata. Thus, convenience sampling is also used in drawing respondents given the constraints in conducting survey. Chapter 4 – Operational Framework Survey questionnaires were circulated primarily through the use of online survey, www.kwiksurveys.com, and partly through manually distributed questionnaire. In total, there are 94 respondents whose information would be used to represent the population. However, as mentioned earlier, there would be 564 observations as researchers would treat the cross-sectional data to be a panel data across entities and across six types of risks. 4.2 Methodology The survey is a simple and straight-forward choice-based design where attitude on risks is determined. Nevertheless, in addition to knowing which risk attitude is more observed, the researchers seeks to see what factors affect an individual’s risk orientation. To account for the factors affecting risk orientation, the following models shall be used: 4.3 Model Specification Equation (1) shows the regression model in determining the relationship between students’ individual characteristics/credentials and their risk attitude when faced with different types of gain situations 𝐺𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠2 = 𝛽1 𝑋1 (𝑐𝑔𝑝𝑎) + 𝛽2 𝑋2 (𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠𝑞) + 𝛽3 𝑋3 (𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑒) + 𝛽4 𝑋4 (𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡) + 𝛽5 𝑋5 (𝑢𝑠𝑔) + 𝛽6 𝑋6 (𝑐𝑠𝑜) + 𝛽7 𝑋7 (𝑑𝑜) + 𝛽8 𝑋8 (𝑠𝑝𝑜) + 𝛽9 𝑋9 (𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑐) + 𝛽10 𝑋10 (𝑐𝑐𝑠) + 𝛽11 𝑋11 (𝑐𝑒𝑑) + 𝛽12 𝑋12 (𝑐𝑙𝑎) + 𝛽13 𝑋13 (𝑐𝑜𝑏) + 𝛽14 𝑋14 (𝑐𝑜𝑒) + 𝛽15 𝑋15 (𝑐𝑜𝑠) + 𝛽16 𝑋16 (𝑒𝑥𝑒𝑐) + 𝛽17 𝑋17 (𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) + 𝛽18 𝑋18 (𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒) + 𝛽19 𝑋19 (𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟) + 𝜇 Where Gain2=1 if risk-averse =0 if risk-seeking Equation (2) shows the regression model in determining the relationship between students’ individual characteristics/credentials and their risk attitude when faced with different types of loss situations 𝐿𝑜𝑠𝑠2 = 𝛽1 𝑋1 (𝑐𝑔𝑝𝑎) + 𝛽2 𝑋2 (𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠𝑞) + 𝛽3 𝑋3 (𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑒) + 𝛽4 𝑋4 (𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡) + 𝛽5 𝑋5 (𝑢𝑠𝑔) + 𝛽6 𝑋6 (𝑐𝑠𝑜) + 𝛽7 𝑋7 (𝑑𝑜) + 𝛽8 𝑋8 (𝑠𝑝𝑜) + 𝛽9 𝑋9 (𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑐) + 𝛽10 𝑋10 (𝑐𝑐𝑠) + 𝛽11 𝑋11 (𝑐𝑒𝑑) + 𝛽12 𝑋12 (𝑐𝑙𝑎) + 𝛽13 𝑋13 (𝑐𝑜𝑏) + 𝛽14 𝑋14 (𝑐𝑜𝑒) + 𝛽15 𝑋15 (𝑐𝑜𝑠) + 𝛽16 𝑋16 (𝑒𝑥𝑒𝑐) + 𝛽17 𝑋17 (𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) + 𝛽18 𝑋18 (𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒) + 𝛽19 𝑋19 (𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟) + 𝜇 Chapter 4 – Operational Framework Where Loss2=1 if risk-averse =0 if risk-seeking Equation (3) shows the regression model in determining the relationship between students’ individual characteristics/credentials and their tendency to adhere to Prospect Theory 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡2 = 𝛽1 𝑋1 (𝑐𝑔𝑝𝑎) + 𝛽2 𝑋2 (𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠𝑞) + 𝛽3 𝑋3 (𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑒) + 𝛽4 𝑋4 (𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡) + 𝛽5 𝑋5 (𝑢𝑠𝑔) + 𝛽6 𝑋6 (𝑐𝑠𝑜) + 𝛽7 𝑋7 (𝑑𝑜) + 𝛽8 𝑋8 (𝑠𝑝𝑜) + 𝛽9 𝑋9 (𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑐) + 𝛽10 𝑋10 (𝑐𝑐𝑠) + 𝛽11 𝑋11 (𝑐𝑒𝑑) + 𝛽12 𝑋12 (𝑐𝑙𝑎) + 𝛽13 𝑋13 (𝑐𝑜𝑏) + 𝛽14 𝑋14 (𝑐𝑜𝑒) + 𝛽15 𝑋15 (𝑐𝑜𝑠) + 𝛽16 𝑋16 (𝑒𝑥𝑒𝑐) + 𝛽17 𝑋17 (𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) + 𝛽18 𝑋18 (𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒) + 𝛽19 𝑋19 (𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟) + 𝜇 Where Prospect2=1 if Gain2=1 and Loss2=0 for the same situation =0 if otherwise (or Gain2=Loss2 or Gain2=0 and Loss2=1) Equation (4) shows the regression model in determining the relationship between students’ individual characteristics/credentials and their tendency to have consistent risk attitudes regardless of framing of situations (ie. gains/losses) 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡2 = 𝛽1 𝑋1 (𝑐𝑔𝑝𝑎) + 𝛽2 𝑋2 (𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠𝑞) + 𝛽3 𝑋3 (𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑒) + 𝛽4 𝑋4 (𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡) + 𝛽5 𝑋5 (𝑢𝑠𝑔) + 𝛽6 𝑋6 (𝑐𝑠𝑜) + 𝛽7 𝑋7 (𝑑𝑜) + 𝛽8 𝑋8 (𝑠𝑝𝑜) + 𝛽9 𝑋9 (𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑐) + 𝛽10 𝑋10 (𝑐𝑐𝑠) + 𝛽11 𝑋11 (𝑐𝑒𝑑) + 𝛽12 𝑋12 (𝑐𝑙𝑎) + 𝛽13 𝑋13 (𝑐𝑜𝑏) + 𝛽14 𝑋14 (𝑐𝑜𝑒) + 𝛽15 𝑋15 (𝑐𝑜𝑠) + 𝛽16 𝑋16 (𝑒𝑥𝑒𝑐) + 𝛽17 𝑋17 (𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) + 𝛽18 𝑋18 (𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒) + 𝛽19 𝑋19 (𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟) + 𝜇 Where Consistent2 =1 if Gain2=Loss2 (consistent choice despite framing) =0 if Gain2 Loss2 (or when Prospect=1 or Gain2=0 and Loss2=1) 4.4 Variables Independent Variable: Description Risk Orientation on Gains “gain2” Multinomial Variable. = 1 if risk adverse, approaches 5 if risk seeking. Risk orientation when it comes to gains. Risk Orientation on Losses Where Gain2 =1 if risk-averse =0 if risk-seeking Multinomial Variable. = 1 if risk adverse, approaches 5 if risk seeking. Risk orientation when it comes to losses. Chapter 4 – Operational Framework “loss2” Where Loss2 =1 if risk-averse =0 if risk-seeking Dummy Variable. Individuals are RA when faced with gains and RS when faced with loss situation. Prospect “prospect2” Where Prospect2 =1 if Gain2=1 and Loss2=0 for the same situation =0 if otherwise (or Gain2=Loss2 or Gain2=0 and Loss2=1) Framing “Consistent2” Dummy Variable. Individuals are inconsistent in their risk orientation when faced with gains or loss situation. Where Consistent2 =1 if Gain2=Loss2 (consistent choice despite framing) =0 if Gain2 Loss2 (or when Prospect=1 or Gain2=0 and Loss2=1) Dependent Variable: Cumulative Grade Point Average “cgpa” A-priori with respect to one’s risk orientation in riskG and in riskL where 1=risk seeking and 0 = risk averse - Intuition/Implication The grade of the individual which ranges from 0 to 4, 4 being the highest. Grades would be used as proxy for intelligence, such that people who are smarter are more likely to take advantage of an opportunity. A-priori with respect to Prospect equation where =1 adhere =0 otherwise A-priori with respect to Consistent equation where =1 consistent =0 framing + - Chapter 4 – Operational Framework Number of Failures “failsq” +/- Dummy Variable. =0 if none, =1 if at least one fail, =2 if the student-respondent has more than once failed. The effects of this variable on risk orientation is expected to be quadratic, since as students receive their first failure, they tend to be risk adverse, but as failures become common, they revert back to previous orientations + - - Dummy Variable. =0 if not an athlete, = 1 if athlete. Students who engage in sports are more likely to be outgoing and take chances. Thus they are more likely to be risk seeking. + - - Dummy Variable. =1 if an artist =0 if not. Students who engage in performing are more likely to be outgoing and take chances. Thus they are more likely to be risk seeking. + - - Dummy Variable. =1 if member, =0 if not member. Those who work in an organization under CSO and those who are USG officers are also expected to be risk seeking. Students who are usually involved in these are usually the ones who have a strong sense of responsibility. And being responsible for something usually entails risk as to the quality of job they would perform. + - - Dummy Variable. =1 if Do paragon, =0 if not Do paragon. Those students who work under Discipline Office (DO) in helping plan and implement Do's program are also expected to be risk seeking. Students who are usually involved in these are usually the ones who have a strong sense of responsibility. And As the name suggests, a do paragon would not mind arresting even their friends for a violation done. Thus, its nature of being risk-seeking. + - - Dummy Variable. =1 if an Spo member =0 if not. Students who do work for University's major publications as "Lasallian campus journalists, graphic designers, yearbook manager, creative writers" are also expected to be risk-seeking.(www.dlsu.edu.ph) The reason for this being is that they are usually the ones who are bold enough to expose matters to the entire university notwithstanding the issue attached to the article produced. + - Athlete “athlete” Artist “artist” Under “cso", Under "usg” Do paragon "do" Student Publications Office "spo" Chapter 4 – Operational Framework Number of Executive Position held “exec” - College of Engineering “coe” College of Computer Science - “ccs” College of Education “ced” College of Science “cos” + College of Liberal Arts “cla” - Discrete Variable. Number of executive position held by the individual. Students who are in leadership position tend to be more risk seeking due to the nature of their jobs. Also they are constantly faced with balancing extracurricular and their academics. Dummy variable. =1 if COE/CCS student =0 if not. It is assumed that being an engineering or a computer science student is positively correlated to one’s being risk-lover. This is so because these students are those who are generally innovative and are willing to accept change and thus risks. Also, individuals who usually accept risk more readily tend to choose entirely on the basis of anticipated costs and benefits and these students are more capable of weighing such. (Nadeau, Blais, 1999) Dummy variable. =1 if CED/COS student =0 if not. As for students of CED, COS, they are assumed to affirm the prospect theory and have different risk attitude towards gains or lossesthey tend to be risk averse when faced with gains situation and risk seeking when faced with losses situation. Such risk averse assumption is due to the fact that these students usually do not weigh costs and benefits and simply give almost as much weight to the perceived possibility of worst outcome. With this, they become more reluctant to take risks (Nadeau, Blais, 1999). On the otherhand, as for the losses, they are also expected to become risk seeking, as predicted by the prospect theory. Dummy variable. =1 if CLA student =0 if not. Being a liberal arts student is also anticipated to be contributing to one’s being a risk-lover. Liberal arts students are usually stereotyped for being expressive, more outgoing, and are able to have the fortitude by nature. And so, regardless of gains or losses framing, they are assumed to be risk-seeking. + - + - + - + + Chapter 4 – Operational Framework College of Business “cob” - School of Economics “soe” - Gender “male” - Dummy variable. =1 if COB student =0 if not. Business students are normally well exposed to computing risks and thus would most probably have consistent risk attitude regardless of gains or losses framing. Moreover, business students generally have the tendency to be risk-seeking, this is because eventually in the real world, entrepreneurs are able to give up job security and take specific kinds of risks related to launching a new venture because they have confidence that they will either succeed or be capable of carrying on a successful career. (Ray, 1994). Successful managers are also said to be ones who are risk-seeking. According to Sjöberg, L., & Engelberg, E. (2009), it was found that the students of finance had a positive attitude to economic risk-taking and gambling behavior, a high level of sensation seeking, a low level of money concern. Omitted to serve as base. Economics students are expected to be a contributing factor to one’s being risk seeking. This is because they are usually the ones who are able to see a short term plan in a long term perspective. In a study by Thaler, R. & Benartzi, S. (1999), they have found that people are generally risk-averse in taking a risky asset but when they were shown the long term implications of taking risky assets, they now become more willing to take the risk and thus become risk seeking. Dummy variable. =1 if male =0 if female. Men are asummed to be relatively more risk-seeking or women are more risk averse compared to their counterparts. In a study of household holdings of risky asset, they found that single women exhibit relatively more risk aversion in financial decision making than single men ( Jianakoplos, Bernasek, 1998). It is also seen that men are more likely to have the strength of mind to handle or endure adversity of bravery and on the otherhand, women are seen to be more indecisive in decision making and thus would usually end up taking the choice with great caution. + + + + + + Chapter 4 – Operational Framework Single “single” - Year Level “year” - Sociocivic member “sociocivic” - 4.5 Dummy variable. =1 if single =0 if in a relationship. “Single” variable is anticipated to be positively correlated to one’s tendency to become risk-seeking. While a person is still single, he would most likely be self-oriented and would not think of others who might be affected of his decision (ie. A partner). Given this, he would be willing to take risks and can afford not to take great caution with his decision. Conversely, if a person is in a relationship, he is seen to have the tendency to be more risk averse. Such is because his decision might affect his partner and taking risks means anticipating for a greater loss or greater gain than if one had been risk averse Discreet Variable. As years pass by, students are more experience in general, and thus they would be more risk seeking. Dummy Variable. Students who are members of Englicom, Rotatact, Cosca, and who are involved in socio civic organizations are in general more risk seeking. The reason being is that they are able to achieve a balance between their role as students and their being socially responsible. + + + + + + Method of Regression As in the case where the dependent variable in an equation is a quantitative dummy variable, one of Quantitative Response Models shall be used as estimator. Thus, it is first necessary to define the three possible models in getting the most reliable and accurate estimation. First, linear probability model makes use of OLS estimation where although four of the five violations could be cured by increasing sample size, the last violation of exceeding the 0-1 interval of dependent variable and constant marginal effect of independent to dependent variable could not be resolved without using link function. Hence, we are left with logit and probit model. Chapter 4 – Operational Framework To differentiate, cumulative logistic function and odd’s ratio are used in logit model, while cumulative distribution function (CDF) and z-value are used in probit model. In qualitative terms, logit and probit model produce similar results and thus the deciding factor to the use of model would be the on R2 and F-value of both models to reflect goodness of fit. 4.6 Statistical Software Stata 10 will be used in estimating regression model. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis Chapter 5 Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.1 Detailed Summary of Descriptive Statistics Descriptive Statistics (Spreadsheet1) Minimum Maximum Std.Dev. Skewness Mean Variable 2.17202 6.0000 1.17512 0.65009 0.000000 exec 3.35983 18.0000 2.87568 1.59680 0.000000 fail 6.28546 10.80462 0.000000 324.0000 41.10066 failsq 5.33501 1.0000 0.17608 0.03197 0.000000 athlete 1.86126 1.0000 0.36680 0.15986 0.000000 artist 1.05948 1.0000 0.44248 0.26643 0.000000 usg 1.18825 1.0000 0.43054 0.24512 0.000000 cso 9.55670 1.0000 0.10277 0.01066 0.000000 do 6.64633 1.0000 0.14456 0.02131 0.000000 spo 5.33501 1.0000 0.17608 0.03197 0.000000 sociocivic 2.75179 1.0000 0.29474 0.09591 0.000000 ccs 3.57425 1.0000 0.24487 0.06394 0.000000 ced 2.55684 1.0000 0.30884 0.10657 0.000000 cla 0.83765 1.0000 0.46178 0.30728 0.000000 cob 1.65998 1.0000 0.38550 0.18117 0.000000 coe 9.55670 1.0000 0.10277 0.01066 0.000000 cos -0.39545 3.5000 0.43209 2.72704 1.700000 cgpa -0.08199 1.0000 0.50003 0.52043 0.000000 male -1.25691 1.0000 0.42404 0.76554 0.000000 single -0.43205 5.0000 0.77203 2.83659 1.000000 year -0.04632 1.0000 0.50031 0.51155 0.000000 loss2 -0.03919 1.0000 0.50035 0.50977 0.000000 gain2 1.30451 1.0000 0.41950 0.22735 0.000000 prospect2 -0.19685 1.0000 0.49805 0.54885 0.000000 consistent Kurtosis 4.79783 14.19778 41.37458 26.55671 1.46949 -0.88063 -0.59017 89.64894 42.32403 26.55671 5.59220 10.81364 4.55360 -1.30298 0.75822 89.64894 -0.42571 -2.00040 -0.42168 2.06248 -2.00499 -2.00560 -0.29932 -1.96826 The table above is the summary and the overview of the descriptive statistics of the variables which were integrated in the survey questionnaires (a more detailed discussion and presentation will be presented later on): The first moment of interest is the sample mean which in plain words is the expected value of each of the variables above. From the compilation of the responses of those who were surveyed, the data set was obtained. From the data set, the sample mean is the sum of the values Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis divided by the number of values. Thus, the divisor would be 564 as in this case. The sample mean may represent the population mean but does not always exactly equate to the population mean because of possible errors in the model or outliers in the data set. As in the case of most of the variables of this study, binary variables or dummy variables have values that lie between 0 and 1. Thus, for the variables athlete, artist, usg, cso, do, spo, sociocivic, ccs, ced,cla, cob, coe, cos, male, single, loss2, gain2, prospect2, and consistent which are dummy variables that merit a value of one if the given trait is present, it can be said that the majority of the respondents possesses the trait if the mean is nearer to 1 than to 0. The maximum and minimum values literally provide the maximum and minimum outcomes of the survey done. However, because binary variables could only either have values of 0 or 1, then it automatically gets a maximum value of 1 and a minimum value of 0 for as long as at least one of the respondents would give an answer that merits a 0 and another respondent would give an answer that merits a 1. The second moment to be observed regarding the data set obtained is its standard deviation. The standard deviation is obtained by getting the square root of the variance which is the average of the squared differences from the mean or the expected value. In other words, it is the measure of how spread out the values are. It can be observed that most of the standard deviations are minimal except for the failsq variable since the value of the variable is a squared notation of the fail variable, thus making the values much larger than they should be. Moreover, since the values are, again, mostly binary variables, then the standard deviation would indeed be minimal given the nature of the variables. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis The third moment of observation is the skewness of the data set. The value of the skewness of the data describes the measure of asymmetry of the variable’s probability distribution. It can only be said that the values are relatively evenly distributed if the value of the variable’s skewness is equal to 0. If not, then it is skewed. If the value is negative or that the distribution is negatively skewed, then it means that most of the values fall by the right side of the distribution and less values fall by the left tail. The opposite is said if the distribution is positively skewed. It can be observed that noneof the variables have a zero skew. None of the variables are then evenly distributed. As for the cos and the do variable, the skewness is relatively high. This may be the case because convenience sampling was employed by the researchers and thus these variables are not well represented. The last and the fourth moment of observation is the kurtosis. The kurtosis measures the level of how peaked the variable’s distribution is. If the kurtosis is high (usually having a measure greater than 3), the distribution is said to be a tall one and that it can be said that the value of the distribution’s variance is primarily attributable to extreme infrequent deviations from the mean or otherwise known as outliers. On the other hand, if the kurtosis is low, then it means to say that the distribution is flat. For the binary variables, if the kurtosis is low, it can be observed that it is because the distribution is more distributed as compared to those with high kurtosis such as the most unevenly distributed variable observations in the data set which are the cos and the do variable. 5.2 Graphs and Interpretation 5.2.1 Number of executive positions held: “exec” Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis Mean = 0.6489 Mean±SD = (-0.5255, 1.8233) Mean±1.96*SD = (-1.6529, 2.9507) Summary: exec K-S d=.37957, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: exec 3.0 450 2.5 Expected Normal Value 400 No. of obs. 350 300 250 200 150 100 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 50 0 2.0 -1 0 1 2 3 4 X <= Category Boundary 5 6 -1.0 -1 0 1 2 3 Value 4 5 6 7 4 3 2 exec Summary Statistics:exec Mean= 0.650089 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 6.000000 Std.Dev.= 1.175118 Skew ness= 2.172022 Kurtosis= 4.797829 1 0 -1 -2 It can be seen that most of the students (who were surveyed) in the university have not held any executive positions yet. It can be seen that although the range is from 0 to 6, the mean of the distribution does not even reach the value of 1. Also, the fact that the distribution is positively skewed also supports the fact that, indeed, most have never held executive positions. The kurtosis is relatively high since it exceeds the benchmark of 3. This is because if the data set is reviewed, it can be seen that only one individual (equivalent to 6 individuals) has held six executive positions, thus he is considered as an outlier. It can be noted that the maximum executive positions held is 6. 5.2.2 Number of Failures: ”failsq” Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis Mean = 10.7872 Mean±SD = (-30.279, 51.8535) Mean±1.96*SD = (-69.7026, 91.277) Summary: failsq K-S d=.39632, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: failsq 3.0 350 Expected Normal Value 2.5 300 No. of obs. 250 200 150 100 50 0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 X <= Category Boundary 300 350 -1.0 -50 0 50 100 150 Value 200 250 300 350 100 80 60 40 failsq Summary Statistics:failsq Mean= 10.804618 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum=324.000000 Std.Dev.= 41.100660 Skew ness= 6.285461 Kurtosis= 41.374579 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 The standard deviation is noticeably high. This is primarily because this variable is a squared notation of the number of failures that an individual has. Thus, it does not only double the value, but rather squares it and makes it increase exponentially. The kurtosis is also as high as that of the standard deviation; this signifies that there are outliers in the distribution. It is positively skewed and it can be said that most Lasallians only incur few failures over their academic stay in the university. Getting the square root of the mean, the mean of the actual number failures of the students could be obtained. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.3 Athlete: “athlete” Mean = 0.0319 Mean±SD = (-0.144, 0.2078) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.3129, 0.3767) Summary: athlete K-S d=.54007, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: athlete Expected Normal Value 600 No. of obs. 500 400 300 200 100 0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 athlete Summary Statistics:athlete Mean= 0.031972 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.176081 Skew ness= 5.335015 Kurtosis= 26.556708 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 As can be seen, the mean nears zero and that the kurtosis is significantly high. Again, this can be accounted for the fact that most of the surveyed individuals are not athletes but that there are some outliers who are actually athletes. It is again positively skewed since most of the respondents are not athletes. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.4 Artist: “artist” Mean = 0.1596 Mean±SD = (-0.207, 0.5261) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.5588, 0.878) Summary: artist Normal P-Plot: artist 1.6 1.4 Expected Normal Value No. of obs. K-S d=.50866, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 artist Summary Statistics:artist Mean= 0.159858 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.366800 Skew ness= 1.861257 Kurtosis= 1.469487 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 As compared to the earlier extra-curricular activities, the artists are more well represented as the skewness is not that high although it is still positively skewed as there are still more respondents who are not artists. Also, notice that the mean is still a lot nearer to 0. On the other hand, the kurtosis is low which shows a flat distribution and this reflects that outliers are not a problem in the distribution. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.5 University Student Government: “usg” Mean = 0.266 Mean±SD = (-0.1763, 0.7082) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.6008, 1.1327) Summary: usg K-S d=.46002, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: usg 1.2 500 1.0 Expected Normal Value 450 No. of obs. 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 50 0 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 usg Summary Statistics:usg Mean= 0.266430 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.442485 Skew ness= 1.059484 Kurtosis= -0.880634 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 The representation of those in the University Student Government is even better than that of those under the Cultural Arts Office. However, the majority are still those who are not involved with the student government. This time, because of the better representation for this variable, the kurtosis becomes negative. Once again, since the majority are still those who are not involved in the student government, then the distribution is still positively skewed. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.6 Council of Student Organizations: “cso” Mean = 0.2447 Mean±SD = (-0.1856, 0.675) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.5987, 1.088) Summary: cso K-S d=.47032, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: cso 1.4 500 1.2 Expected Normal Value 450 No. of obs. 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 50 0 1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 cso Summary Statistics:cso Mean= 0.245115 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.430538 Skew ness= 1.188249 Kurtosis= -0.590174 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Even though there are a lot of organizations that fall under the Council of Student Organizations, the mean is still nearer to 0 than to 1. This signifies that there are more students who are not involved with CSO organizations such as their professional organizations. It is either that students are generally inactive when it comes to extra-curricular activities or that this variable was simply mistaken for the CSO office itself (even though the specification was included in the survey questionnaires). The distribution is once again flat and positively skewed. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.7 Discipline Office Paragon: “do” Mean = 0.0106 Mean±SD = (-0.092, 0.1133) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.1906, 0.2119) Summary: do K-S d=.53064, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: do Expected Normal Value 700 600 No. of obs. 500 400 300 200 100 0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 do Summary Statistics:do Mean= 0.010657 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.102773 Skew ness= 9.556698 Kurtosis= 89.648938 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 The DO Paragons are so far the least represented of all. Aside from the outlier which is indicated by the extremely high kurtosis, all of the respondents are not agents of the Discipline Office. The mean even almost zeroes out if it had not been pulled up by the outlier. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.8 Student Publications Office “spo” Mean = 0.0213 Mean±SD = (-0.1232, 0.1657) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.2618, 0.3044) Summary: spo K-S d=.53730, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: spo Expected Normal Value 700 600 No. of obs. 500 400 300 200 100 0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 spo Summary Statistics:spo Mean= 0.021314 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.144559 Skew ness= 6.646329 Kurtosis= 42.324030 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 The distribution and thus the explanation is similar to that of the do variable. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.9 Sociocivics: “sociocivic” Mean = 0.0319 Mean±SD = (-0.144, 0.2078) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.3129, 0.3767) Summary: sociocivic K-S d=.54007, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: sociocivic Expected Normal Value 600 No. of obs. 500 400 300 200 100 0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 sociocivic Summary Statistics:sociocivic Mean= 0.031972 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.176081 Skew ness= 5.335015 Kurtosis= 26.556708 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 The distribution and thus the explanation is similar to that of the do variable. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.10 Colleges: “ccs”, “ced”, “cla”, “cob”, “coe”, “cos” College 10% 6% COB 34% SOE 17% COS CLA 10% COE 22% CCS CED 1% Mean = 0.0957 Mean±SD = (-0.1988, 0.3902) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.4815, 0.673) Summary: ccs K-S d=.53166, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: ccs 1.8 600 Expected Normal Value 1.6 400 300 200 100 0 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.8 Summary Statistics:ccs Mean= 0.095915 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.294736 Skew ness= 2.751789 Kurtosis= 5.592196 0.6 0.4 0.2 ccs No. of obs. 500 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis Mean = 0.0638 Mean±SD = (-0.1808, 0.3085) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.4157, 0.5434) Summary: ced K-S d=.53906, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: ced 2.0 600 Expected Normal Value 1.8 No. of obs. 500 400 300 200 100 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.6 Summary Statistics:ced Mean= 0.063943 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.244869 Skew ness= 3.574246 Kurtosis= 10.813636 0.4 ced 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Mean = 0.1064 Mean±SD = (-0.2022, 0.415) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.4985, 0.7112) Summary: cla K-S d=.52841, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: cla 1.8 600 Expected Normal Value 1.6 400 300 200 100 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.8 Summary Statistics:cla Mean= 0.106572 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.308843 Skew ness= 2.556840 Kurtosis= 4.553596 0.6 0.4 0.2 cla No. of obs. 500 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis Mean = 0.3085 Mean±SD = (-0.1538, 0.7708) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.5976, 1.2146) Summary: cob K-S d=.43983, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: cob 1.2 450 1.0 Expected Normal Value 400 No. of obs. 350 300 250 200 150 100 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 50 0 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 Summary Statistics:cob Mean= 0.307282 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.461778 Skew ness= 0.837652 Kurtosis= -1.302980 1.0 0.8 cob 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Mean = 0.1809 Mean±SD = (-0.2044, 0.5661) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.5742, 0.9359) Summary: coe Normal P-Plot: coe 1.4 1.2 Expected Normal Value 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 1.0 Summary Statistics:coe Mean= 0.181172 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.385503 Skew ness= 1.659982 Kurtosis= 0.758221 0.8 0.6 0.4 coe No. of obs. K-S d=.49964, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis Mean = 0.0106 Mean±SD = (-0.092, 0.1133) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.1906, 0.2119) Summary: cos K-S d=.53064, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: cos Expected Normal Value 700 600 No. of obs. 500 400 300 200 100 0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 cos Summary Statistics:cos Mean= 0.010657 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.102773 Skew ness= 9.556698 Kurtosis= 89.648938 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 Since one’s college is mutually exclusive in such a way if the individual belongs to this college, then it means that he is not belong to the rest of the other colleges even if he is taking up a double degree. Thus, this is the reason why all distributions have means or averages that are nearer to 0 than to 1. This is also the reason why all skewness are positive. Distributions will really tend to cluster around 0 than to 1. Since the most respondents come from the college of business, then it affects the distribution in a way that it made it flat. On the other hand, since students from the College of Science only represent 1% of the respondents, it is not surprising that the distribution for the cos variable is extremely high. This is because the individual from the college of science serves as an outlier with respect to the other respondents. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.11 Cumulative Grade Point Average: “cgpa” Mean = 2.727 Mean±SD = (2.2953, 3.1587) Mean±1.96*SD = (1.8809, 3.5732) Summary: cgpa K-S d=.10178, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: cgpa 3 Expected Normal Value 300 No. of obs. 250 200 150 100 50 0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 X <= Category Boundary 3.5 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 Value 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 cgpa Summary Statistics:cgpa Mean= 2.727043 Minimum= 1.700000 Maximum= 3.500000 Std.Dev.= 0.432094 Skew ness= -0.395451 Kurtosis= -0.425708 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 Of the Lasallian students surveyed, the average cumulative grade point average is 2.72 of a possible 4. This is no longer a dummy variable and so the minimum and maximum values are already relevant. The lowest grade point average among the respondents is 1.7 while the highest is 3.5. This time, the distribution is negatively skewed as most of the students surveyed have relatively high grades. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.12 Gender: “male” Mean = 0.5213 Mean±SD = (0.0213, 1.0213) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.4587, 1.5013) Summary: male K-S d=.35167, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: male 0.8 350 Expected Normal Value 0.6 300 No. of obs. 250 200 150 100 50 0 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 male Summary Statistics:male Mean= 0.520426 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.500027 Skew ness= -0.081992 Kurtosis= -2.000396 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Of all the variables, gender is the most well represented as the ratio between the male n the female is almost 1:1. Such a balanced distribution can be attributed by the fact that the mean is 0.52 which is more or less the median of 0 and 1, the minimum and the maximum values. This increases the chances of the researchers in deriving a significant finding from the male variable. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.13 Relationship Status: “single” Mean = 0.766 Mean±SD = (0.3422, 1.1897) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.0646, 1.5966) Summary: single K-S d=.47538, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: single 0.4 500 0.2 Expected Normal Value 450 No. of obs. 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 50 0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -1.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 single Summary Statistics:single Mean= 0.765542 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.424037 Skew ness= -1.256913 Kurtosis= -0.421681 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Most of the respondents are single since a value of 1 means the student is single and that the mean is nearer to 1 than to 2. This time, the skewness is negatively skewed as compared to the earlier variables since the trait of interest is actually more present in most of the students— that is, most of the students are not in a relationship as of the current time. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.14 Year Level: “year” Mean = 2.8404 Mean±SD = (2.0637, 3.6171) Mean±1.96*SD = (1.3181, 4.3628) Summary: year K-S d=.39199, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: year 2.5 450 2.0 Expected Normal Value 400 No. of obs. 350 300 250 200 150 100 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 50 0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 X <= Category Boundary 4.5 5.0 -2.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Value 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 year Summary Statistics:year Mean= 2.836590 Minimum= 1.000000 Maximum= 5.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.772027 Skew ness= -0.432050 Kurtosis= 2.062482 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 The number of respondents on their third year are significantly higher than those in the other levels. This could then decrease the chances for the researchers to obtain a good finding from this variable. On the other hand, the skewness for this variable is the least among the others as there are respondents from both the lower levels and the higher levels. 5.2.15 Risk Orientation: “loss2” and “gain2” The following is the summary of the responses on the survey questionnaire: If I were a freshman, I would rather take the degree program with 200 graduates where 70 students would have no job opportunity at all than the other degree program also with 200 graduates where there is a 30% probability that all 200 graduates would not have jobs. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis A terrorist locked 24 people including you in a room with a bomb. You would rather choose to try to intercept the bomb where there is a 50% chance that the bomb would explode and kill all of you than take the offer of the terrorist where he would kill 12 people and let the others go. A crazy ex-convict broke in to a supermarket and held 24 people including you as hostages. The ex-convict gave you an ultimatum. He can either let 12 people safe or let you toss a coin where if it is heads, he would let all of you go. You would rather choose to toss a coin. I’d rather manage a recreational activity for a group of 5 friends where 2 of them will not have fun than another recreational activity where there is 40% chance that 5 will not have fun. There are two degree programs that has 200 graduates each year. You would rather take the degree program that would offer only 140 of these graduates a stable career than the other degree program that offers a 70% probability that all 200 graduates will have a stable career. If I own a drug manufacturing company and 150 are in dire need of help, I would recommend a drug where it is certain that 54 of these people will not be cured than another drug that has 36% chance that 150 will not be cured. You have a number of shares of a corporation you want to sell. Two people approached you and you would rather choose to sell to the 1st person who is still unsure whether to buy your shares or from another person but told you that there is a 15% chance that he will buy your shares where you could realize a profit worth $10,000 than the 2nd person who is certain to buy your shares at a profit worth $1,500. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis If I had a retail store worth $10,000, I would rather lose an amount of $8,500 than holding onto it and possibly have 85% chance of losing the entire capital. I would choose to organize a sport event for a group of 5 friends where 3 will certainly enjoy, than a sport event where there is 60% chance that all 5 will enjoy. I would introduce a medicine for 150 epidemic-stricken people where 96 will be cured than a medicine that has 64% chance of curing all 150. You are invited to two parties on the same date where you wanted to boast your great outfit. You would rather go to the 1st party where you are certain 9 of your friends whom you could boast to would go to than the 2nd party where there is a 75% chance that it will be attended by 12 of your other friends whom you could brag to. You lost in a bet and had to do a consequence where you had to perform an embarrassing dance in front of the people inside a room that you can choose. There are only two rooms and you would rather prefer the 1st room of 12 people where there is a 25% chance that these 12 people would allow you to dance over the 2nd room of 3 people where it is certain that they want to witness your dance. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis Mean = 0.5106 Mean±SD = (0.0103, 1.011) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.47, 1.4913) Summary: loss2 K-S d=.34709, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: loss2 0.8 350 Expected Normal Value 0.6 300 No. of obs. 250 200 150 100 50 0 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 -0.8 -0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.4 Summary Statistics:loss2 Mean= 0.511545 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.500311 Skew ness= -0.046317 Kurtosis= -2.004990 1.2 1.0 loss2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Mean = 0.5089 Mean±SD = (0.0085, 1.0092) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.4719, 1.4896) Summary: gain2 K-S d=.34617, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: gain2 0.8 350 Expected Normal Value 0.6 300 No. of obs. 250 200 150 100 50 0 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 gain2 Summary Statistics:gain2 Mean= 0.509769 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.500349 Skew ness= -0.039188 Kurtosis= -2.005602 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Responses on both loss and gain perspective vary almost equally. The distribution is flat and skewness approaching 0 since responds truly vary. Chapter 5 – Descriptive Statistic Analysis 5.2.16 Prospect Theory: “prospect2” Mean = 0.227 Mean±SD = (-0.1923, 0.6462) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.5947, 1.0486) Summary: prospect2 K-S d=.47873, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: prospect2 1.4 500 1.2 Expected Normal Value 450 No. of obs. 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 50 0 1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 -0.4 -0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 Summary Statistics:prospect2 Mean= 0.227353 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.419495 Skew ness= 1.304513 Kurtosis= -0.299323 0.8 prospect2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 5.2.17 Consistency upon Framing: “consistent” Mean = 0.5496 Mean±SD = (0.0517, 1.0476) Mean±1.96*SD = (-0.4264, 1.5257) Summary: consistent K-S d=.36634, p<.01 ; Lilliefors p<.01 Expected Normal Normal P-Plot: consistent 0.8 350 Expected Normal Value 0.6 300 200 150 100 50 0 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 X <= Category Boundary 0.8 1.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 1.8 Summary Statistics:consistent Mean= 0.548845 Minimum= 0.000000 Maximum= 1.000000 Std.Dev.= 0.498051 Skew ness= -0.196846 Kurtosis= -1.968256 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 consistent No. of obs. 250 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 Value 0.8 1.0 1.2 Appendix A: Survey Questionnaire Appendix A: Survey Questionnaire 1. Number of executive positions in organizations held during the whole stay in DLSU-Manila: 2. Number of subjects failed in whole DLSU stay: ____ 3. Select all that applies regarding extra-curricular activities: Athlete (DLSU-Manila Varsity) Artist (Under any Cultural Arts Group) Student Government (elected or appointed) Not active in any organizations Active in other organizations: (pls. specify) _____________ 4. Name (optional): 5. College: COB SOE COE CCS COS CED CLA 6. CGPA (estimated): _____ 7. Gender: Male Female 8. Relationship Status: Single In a relationship Appendix A: Survey Questionnaire 9. Year Level: 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year Terminal 10. If I were a freshman, I would rather take the degree program with 200 graduates where 70 students would have no job opportunity at all than the other degree program also with 200 graduates where there is a 30% probability that all 200 graduates would not have jobs. Agree Disagree 11. A terrorist locked 24 people including you in a room with a bomb. You would rather choose to try to intercept the bomb where there is a 50% chance that the bomb would explode and kill all of you than take the offer of the terrorist where he would kill 12 people and let the others go. Agree Disagree 12. A crazy ex-convict broke in to a supermarket and held 24 people including you as hostages. The ex-convict gave you an ultimatum. He can either let 12 people safe or let you toss a coin where if it is heads, he would let all of you go. You would rather choose to toss a coin. Agree Disagree 13. I’d rather manage a recreational activity for a group of 5 friends where 2 of them will not have fun than another recreational activity where there is 40% chance that 5 will not have fun. Agree Appendix A: Survey Questionnaire Disagree 14. There are two degree programs that has 200 graduates each year. You would rather take the degree program that would offer only 140 of these graduates a stable career than the other degree program that offers a 70% probability that all 200 graduates will have a stable career. Agree Disagree 15. If I own a drug manufacturing company and 150 are in dire need of help, I would recommend a drug where it is certain that 54 of these people will not be cured than another drug that has 36% chance that 150 will not be cured. Agree Disagree 16. You have a number of shares of a corporation you want to sell. Two people approached you and you would rather choose to sell to the 1st person who is still unsure whether to buy your shares or from another person but told you that there is a 15% chance that he will buy your shares where you could realize a profit worth $10,000 than the 2nd person who is certain to buy your shares at a profit worth $1,500. Agree Disagree 17. If I had a retail store worth $10,000, I would rather lose an amount of $8,500 than holding onto it and possibly have 85% chance of losing the entire capital. Agree Disagree 18. I would choose to organize a sport event for a group of 5 friends where 3 will certainly enjoy, than a sport event where there is 60% chance that all 5 will enjoy. Agree Appendix A: Survey Questionnaire Disagree 19. I would introduce a medicine for 150 epidemic-stricken people where 96 will be cured than a medicine that has 64% chance of curing all 150. Agree Disagree 20. You are invited to two parties on the same date where you wanted to boast your great outfit. You would rather go to the 1st party where you are certain 9 of your friends whom you could boast to would go to than the 2nd party where there is a 75% chance that it will be attended by 12 of your other friends whom you could brag to. Agree Disagree 21. 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