Foreign Tourist Inflow to India
An Overview
May 21, 2010
Dripto Mukhopadhyay
Estimated Total Foreign Tourist Arrival to India
during 1010
Year
2010
Most likely
scenario
5532180
Optimistic
scenario
5854723
Pessimistic
scenario
5224443
A few Issues Highlighted in this presentation
• Inflow from different regions of the world
• Predominance of a few regions
• Seasonality in tourist inflow
Fig 2: Tourist Arrival to India- A
Better view of Less Imp. Regions
400000
North America
350000
East Eupora
300000
East Eupora
250000
SE Asia
C & S America
West Asia
East Asia
200000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Fig 4: Share of Toruist Arrivals to
India - Selected Regions
60.0
North America
20.0
West Asia
10.0
East Asia
Australia
0.0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Share
C & S America
West Europe
Sahre
East Eupora
30.0
Australia
0
West Europe
SE Asia
East Asia
50000
Fig 3: Region-Wise Share of Tourist
Arrivals to India
40.0
West Asia
100000
Australia
50.0
C & S America
150000
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
East Eupora
SE Asia
C & S America
West Asia
East Asia
Australia
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
SE Asia
Tourist Arrivals
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Tourist Arrival
Fig 1: Tourist Arrival to India from
Different Region
A Few Observations
• Couple of regions, West Europe and North America are the
major source regions.
• These two regions account for about 70% of the total inbound
tourists to India
• West Europe is the region which contributes about 45 to 50% of
the total tourists
• However, the gap between West Europe and North America in
terms of number and share to total tourists is reducing over time
consistently, though the gap is still significantly large.
•
A Few Observations
• Amongst the lesser important region in terms of inbound
tourists to India, South East Asia and East Asia are coming up
Significantly.
• A close look at the numbers suggest that a significant change in
foreign tourist arrivals have taken place from 2002/03 onwards.
This is true for almost every source region.
• Opening up of the economy and initiatives towards promoting
Indian tourism are the major reasons
• Incredible India campaign has also played a significant positive
role.
A Few Observations
•The direction of growth fro almost
every source country is more or less
similar though in varying degree.
•However, a few regions like C & S
America, high growth, positive or
negative, is more because of lower
base number of tourists
Fig: Contribution by Regions to
Increase in Tourist
Increase in '000
3000
N. America
2000
E. Eupora
SE Asia
1000
C & S America
0
W. Asia
E. Asia
-1000
Australia
-2000
Number of tourist
60.0
40.0
20.0
% Growth
• If one looks at year to year change in
number of number of tourists from
different regions, an erratic
movement can be identified.
•
• This involves several internal as well
as external reasons which includes
macro-economic situations of the
source regions coupled with internal
factors such as terrorist activities as
well as some policy issues.
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
-80.0
-100.0
North America
East Eupora
SE Asia
C & S America
West Asia
East Asia
Australia
West Europe
Seasonality in arrivals of foreign tourists
• Foreign tourists arrivals in India is characterized with marked seasonal
differences
• The data on inbound tourists arrivals to India are available for four
quarters of the year, viz., 1) January to March,2) April to June, 3) July
to September and 4) October to December
• For every region under study, it was observed that the quarter October
to December received maximum number of inbound tourists followed
by January to March. This trend has prevailed for through out the time
span reported in this presentation.
• In case of a couple regions, West Europe, South East Asia and East
Asia, number of tourist arrivals are almost similar during these two
quarters.
• Perhaps the most important reason behind concentration of inbound
tourists during these two quarters are the weather, especially for liesure
tourism purpose.
• The only exception is West Asia, where July to September quarter is
higher than other quarters significantly. Perhaps, this is dominated
more by the business tourists compared to leisure tourists.
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India North America
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India World
350000
2000000
Oct- Dec.
Oct- Dec.
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India -
2008
2007
2006
2005
East Europe
120000
60000
100000
50000
Oct- Dec.
Years
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
2002
Oct- Dec.
Jul.-Sept.
10000
2001
20000
April-Jun.
2000
Jul.-Sept.
20000
1999
40000
Jan- Mar
1998
April-Jun.
30000
1997
Jan- Mar
40000
1996
80000
No. of Tourists
No. of Tourists
2004
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India -
South East Asia
0
2003
Years
Years
60000
2002
1996
0
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
Jul.-Sept.
50000
2001
Jul.-Sept.
April-Jun.
100000
2000
500000
Jan- Mar
150000
1999
April-Jun.
200000
1998
Jan- Mar
1000000
250000
1997
1500000
No. of Tourists
No. of Tourists
300000
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India West Asia
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India Central and South America
18000
60000
14000
12000
10000
Jan- Mar
8000
April-Jun.
6000
Jul.-Sept.
4000
Oct- Dec.
No. of Tourists
50000
40000
Jan- Mar
30000
April-Jun.
20000
Jul.-Sept.
10000
2000
Oct- Dec.
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India
- Australia
70000
100000
60000
80000
Jan- Mar
30000
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
20000
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
10000
Oct- Dec.
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
1999
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1998
20000
1997
April-Jun.
40000
50000
40000
Jan- Mar
60000
No. of Tourists
120000
1995
No. of Tourists
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India East Asia
1996
No. of Tourists
16000
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India West Europe
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India South Asia
600000
500000
500000
400000
Jan- Mar
300000
200000
100000
Jul.-Sept.
100000
60000
50000
Tourists
0
Jan- Mar
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India Africa
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
April-Jun.
300000
200000
Years
Jan- Mar
400000
April-Jun.
Oct- Dec.
0
Tourists
No. of Tourists
600000
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
For Whom These Trends are Important
• Hotels
and other accommodation related industries
• Logistics and transport operators
• People involved with cultural and in production process of
other local products like handicrafts etc.
• Researchers to understand the tourism trajectory
• And, of course the planning professionals
What can be done with this data
Likely foreign tourist arrivals can be projected using proper
econometric forecasting technique/s
•
• Forecasting should take care of macro-economic conditions
of the source countries as well as India
• While forecasting, seasonality aspects need to considered.
Recently I forecasted annual inbound tourists to India for 2010
through 2015. Instead of a panel of quarterly data for several
years or pulled quarterly data, annual tourist data from source
regions proved to be a better option.
• Apart from non-availability of several select macro-economic
data, huge variation across the quarters was also one of the
major obstacles
What can be done with this data
However, effort for forecasting tourist arrivals from source
regions for particular quarters can be worth doing from
planning point of view of several stakeholders, especially,
hospitality and transport operators
•