DEPARTAMENT ....... : PROGRAM .................. : COURSE....................... : PROFESSOR ............... : DAY/HOUR ................. : Accounting and Finance (CFC) CMCD Continuous-Time Finance Joao Amaro de Matos Daily, 9 AM-1PM Winter / 2014 SYLLABUS OBJECTIVES AND CONTENTS This courses aims at covering the fundamental principles of pricing and hedging derivative securities in a continuous-time framework. The first part is more theoretical and discusses the probabilistic construction underlying the continuous-time formalism, introducing the basic notions of stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic calculus. The second part is more economically intuitive and is devoted to modeling security markets and understanding how the continuous-time formalism applies to the pricing and hedging principles. The third and final part is more about the applications and presents specific models for option pricing and for term-structure. By the end of this course students are expected to be prepared to read and understand technical literature in various areas of Finance that uses continuous-time language and techniques. Students are also expected to develop critical thinking and learn to make presentations in a professional manner, which is fundamental to their careers as researchers. FORMAT The classes will be divided in two different parts. Roughly half of the classes will be lectures by the professor, and the other half will be exercises and seminar-type, in order to prepare the students for the two exams. The lectures will cover the basic topics of the course, as described in the course schedule below and will follow a standard textbook in the area by Baxter and Rennie. A more advanced textbook by Lars Tyge Nielsen (LTN) for those interested is also reccomended. There will be room for presentation of papers and discussion of exercises by the students. As the material is eminently technical, the success of this course depends fundamentally on the effort and preparation of the students for the classes by studying intensively the material and practicing the concepts by the doing exercises. Also very important is to participate actively in class. Course readings will expose students to the theoretical methods and concepts being used in different papers. Seeing how the tools are used by top researchers is often very useful in helping students understand the tools. ASSESSMENT CRITERIA Presentation / discussion of exercises: Half-page handouts with exercises: Participation during discussions: Midterm exam: Final Exam: 20% 10% 15% 20% 30% REQUIRED BACKGROUND - Topics in probability and measure theory (see Appendix A in LTN textbook); - Topics in integration theory (see Appendix B in LTN textbook); - Basic microeconomics. COURSE SCHEDULE AND READING LIST 1) Each session will include a minimum of two hours of lecture and a minimum of one hour of exercises; 2) Students must present in each class a handout with a few original exercises based on the material of the former class with the respective solutions. If there are enough students, this may be done in groups. Exercises are presented and discussed in class; 3) Each group will choose a paper from the list below to be presented and discussed in the last two classes. We expect a 30 minute PowerPoint presentation that discusses the paper, and each presentation will be followed by in-class discussion. Participation discussing other groups’ presentations is heavily counted in the participation grade. The purpose of the assignment is (1) to practice your academic presentation’s skills; (2) to assess your comprehension of key concepts and (3) to expose you to well-crafted papers. Guidelines for a good discussion (you do not have to strictly follow this order, but it may help you in preparing your presentation): - Briefly describe what the papers does and what it predicts; - Make your point about the assumptions; - Suggest improvements; - Identify eventual gaps or defects. Be critical. You may use your own judgement or the following literature. In this case, make explicit mention to the papers you are referring to. Course schedule (tentative and subject to change) Session Date Topics Readings 1 21/Jul Overview of the course Expectation vs Arbitrage Pricing Chapter 1, B&R 2 22/Jul Discrete Process and Continuous models Chapter 2, B&R, Chapter 1, LTN 3 23/Jul Stochastic Calculus Chapter 3.1-3.4, B&R, Chapter 2, LTN 4 24/Jul Construction Strategies and B-S Model Chapter 3.5-3.8, B&R, Chapter 4, 4 & 6, LTN 5 25/Jul Mid-term exam 6 28/Jul Pricing Market Securities Chapter 4, B&R 7 29/Jul Interest Rates Models Chapter 5, B&R, Chapter 7, LTN 8 30/Jul Bigger Models Chapter 6, B&R 9 31/Jul Papers’ Presentations 10 01/Aug Papers’ Presentations 11 Final Exam Basic Textbook (to be used in class): (B&R) Baxter and Rennie, Financial Calculus, an Introduction to Derivative Pricing, Cambridge University Press, 1996. Advanced Textbook: (LTN) Nielsen, L. T., Pricing and Hedging of Derivative Securities, Oxford University Press, 1999. Papers for Presentations: RC Merton, Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model, Journal of Ec. Th., Vol. 3, Issue 4, 373–413, 1971. RC Merton, Theory of rational option pricing, The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 1, 141-183, 1973. F Black, M Scholes, The pricing of options and corporate liabilities, The journal of political economy, Vol. 81, No. 3, 637-654, 1973. JC Cox, SA Ross, The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes, Journal of financial economics, Vol. 3, Issues 1–2, 145–166, 1976. Vasicek, An equilibrium characterization of the term structure, Journal of financial economics, Vol. 5, Issue 2, 177–18, 1977. JM Harrison, DM Kreps, Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets, Journal of Economic theory, Vol. 20, Issue 3, 381–408, 1979. JM Harrison, SR Pliska, Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading, Stochastic processes and their applications, Vol. 11, Issue 3, 215–260, 1981. HE Leland, Option pricing and replication with transactions costs, The journal of finance, Vol. 40, Issue 5, 1283–1301, 1985. John C. Cox, Jonathan E Ingersoll Jr, Stephen A. Ross, An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices, Econometrica, Vol. 53, No. 2, 363-384, 1985. JC Cox, JE Ingersoll Jr, SA Ross, A theory of the term structure of interest rates, Econometrica, Vol. 53, No. 2, 385-407, 1985. J Hull, A White, The pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities, The journal of finance, Vol. 42, Issue 2, 281–300, 1987. I Karatzas, On the pricing of American options, Applied Mathematics and Optimization, Vol. 17, No. 1, 37-60, 1988. JC Cox, C Huang, Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process, Journal of economic theory, Vol. 49, Issue 1, 33–83, 1989. I Karatzas, JP Lehoczky, SE Shreve, GL Xu, Martingale and duality methods for utility maximization in an incomplete market, SIAM J. Control Optim., Vol. 29, No. 3, 702–730, 1991. David Heath, Robert Jarrow and Andrew Morton, Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation, Econometrica, Vol. 60, No. 1, 77-105, 1992
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