What Do Those Darn Consumers
Want?
Jayson Lusk
Oklahoma State University
What will be remembered?
• Why do we even care about this question?
• I have no idea what will be remembered
– An easier question: what have we remembered from 100
years ago?
1920-1929
1. Title: QUALITY FACTORS INFLUENCING VEGETABLE PRICES
Author(s): Waugh, FV
Published: 1928 , Times Cited: 49
2. Title: GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION OF THUENEN'S THEORY OF INTENSITY
Author(s): Krzymowski, R
Published: 1928, Times Cited: 9
3. Title: THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AMERICAN FARM ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
Author(s): Taylor, HC
Published: 1922, Times Cited: 8
4. Title: APPLICATION OF THE LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURNS TO SOME FERTILIZER AND FEED DATA
Author(s): Spillman, WJ
Published: 1923, Times Cited: 6
5. Title: THE FARMERS' RESPONSE TO PRICE
Author(s): Bean, LH
Published: 1929, Times Cited: 5
6. Title: THE STATISTICAL MEASUREMENT OF THE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR BEEF
Author(s): Schultz, H
Published: 1924, Times Cited: 5
1930-1939
1. Title: THEME OF PLANT AND ANIMAL DESTRUCTION IN ECONOMIC HISTORY
Author(s): Sauer, CO
Times Cited: 17
2. Title: THEORY OF THE FIRM AND FARM MANAGEMENT RESEARCH
Author(s): Schultz, TW
Times Cited: 7
3. Title: THE SHIFTING DEMAND FOR SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, 1875-1929
Author(s): Schultz, H
Times Cited: 7
4. Title: TYPES OF FARMING RESEARCH AND FARM MANAGEMENT
Author(s): Wilcox, WW
Times Cited: 6
5. Title: TENURE PROBLEMS AND RESEARCH NEEDS IN THE SOUTH
Author(s): Wiley, CA
Times Cited: 6
6. Title: DESIGN OF SAMPLING EXPERIMENTS IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
Author(s): Snedecor, GW
Times Cited: 5
7. Title: SOCIAL WELFARE AND DIFFERENTIAL PRICES
Author(s): Stigler, GJ
Times Cited: 5
8. Title: THE NATURE OF STATISTICAL SUPPLY CURVES
Author(s): Cassels, JM
Times Cited: 5
1940-1949
1. Title: THE COST OF SUBSISTENCE
Author(s): Stigler, GJ
Times Cited: 106
2. Title: THEORY OF THE INVERSE CARRYING CHARGE IN FUTURES MARKETS
Author(s): Working, H
Times Cited: 104
3. Title: ECONOMICS OF FARM LEASING SYSTEMS
Author(s): Heady, EO
Times Cited: 29
4. Title: CAPITAL RETURNS FROM SOIL-CONSERVATION PRACTICES
Author(s): Ciriacy-Wantrup, SV
Times Cited: 22
5. Title: PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS FROM A RANDOM SAMPLE OF FARMS
Author(s): Heady, EO
Times Cited: 18
6. Title: THE ECONOMICS OF PUBLIC MEASURES TO SUBSIDIZE FOOD CONSUMPTION
Author(s): Southworth, HM
Times Cited: 17
7. Title: EFFECT OF TENURE SYSTEMS ON AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY
Author(s): Schickele, R
Times Cited: 17
8. Title: ACTUARIAL STRUCTURES FOR CROP INSURANCE
Author(s): Halcrow, HG
Times Cited: 15
1950-1959
1. Title: ESTIMATES OF THE ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
Author(s): NERLOVE, M
Times Cited: 96
2. Title: SPECIFICATION BIAS IN ESTIMATES OF PRODUCTION-FUNCTIONS
Author(s): GRILICHES, Z
Times Cited: 93
3. Title: DISTRIBUTED LAGS AND ESTIMATION OF LONG-RUN SUPPLY AND DEMAND ELASTICITIES – THEORETICAL
Author(s): NERLOVE, M
Times Cited: 69
4. Title: THE DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER - AN ECONOMIC INTERPRETATION OF A TECHNICAL CHANGE
Author(s): GRILICHES, Z
Times Cited: 49
5. Title: STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Author(s): NERLOVE, M; ADDISON, W
Times Cited: 45
6. Title: TOTAL ELASTICITIES - A PREDICTIVE DEVICE
Author(s): BUSE, RC
Times Cited: 29
7. Title: THE MACHINE PROCESS IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY
Author(s): Brewster, JM
Times Cited: 29
8. Title: THE MINIMUM-COST DAIRY FEED (An Application of "Linear Programming")
Author(s): Waugh, FV
Times Cited: 24
1960-1969
1. Title: EMPIRICAL PRODUCTION FUNCTION FREE OF MANAGEMENT BIAS
Author(s): MUNDLAK, Y
Times Cited: 122
2. Title: PROBABILITY-DISTRIBUTIONS OF FIELD CROP YIELDS
Author(s): DAY, RH
Times Cited: 86
3. Title: RETURN TO POULTRY RESEARCH IN UNITED STATES
Author(s): PETERSON, WL
Times Cited: 70
4. Title: SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM AND QUADRATIC-PROGRAMMING
Author(s): TAKAYAMA, T; JUDGE, GG
Times Cited: 69
5. Title: ADVERTISING WITHOUT SUPPLY CONTROL - SOME IMPLICATIONS OF A STUDY OF THE ADVERTISING
Author(s): NERLOVE, M; WAUGH, FV
Times Cited: 58
6. Title: UTILITY ANALYSIS IN A PRACTICAL SETTING
Author(s): OFFICER, RR; HALTER, AN
Times Cited: 55
7. Title: MEASURES OF SOCIAL COSTS OF AGRICULTURAL PROGRAMS
Author(s): WALLACE, TD
Times Cited: 51
8. Title: ON AGGREGATING LINEAR-PROGRAMMING MODELS OF PRODUCTION
Author(s): DAY, RH
Times Cited: 49
1970-1979
1. Title: MEASURING VALUES OF EXTRA-MARKET GOODS - ARE INDIRECT MEASURES BIASED
Author(s): BISHOP, RC; HEBERLEIN, TA
Times Cited: 357
2. Title: LINEAR ALTERNATIVE TO QUADRATIC AND SEMIVARIANCE PROGRAMMING . . . UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Author(s): HAZELL, PBR
Times Cited: 167
3. Title: ENDANGERED SPECIES AND UNCERTAINTY - ECONOMICS OF A SAFE MINIMUM STANDARD
Author(s): BISHOP, RC
Times Cited: 133
4. Title: COST FUNCTION APPROACH TO MEASUREMENT OF ELASTICITIES OF FACTOR DEMAND AND ELASTICITIES
Author(s): BINSWANG.HP
Times Cited: 123
5. Title: FARM RETAIL PRICE SPREAD IN A COMPETITIVE FOOD-INDUSTRY
Author(s): GARDNER, BL
Times Cited: 115
6. Title: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF HIGHER EDUCATION - MODELS OF STATUS ATTAINMENT
Author(s): SEWELL, WH; HAUSER, RM
Times Cited: 99
7. Title: SUPPLY SHIFTS AND SIZE OF RESEARCH BENEFITS
Author(s): LINDNER, RK; JARRETT, FG
Times Cited: 95
8. Title: EXCHANGE-RATE AND US AGRICULTURE
Author(s): SCHUH, GE
Times Cited: 95
1980-1989
1. Title: WELFARE EVALUATIONS IN CONTINGENT VALUATION EXPERIMENTS WITH DISCRETE RESPONSES
Author(s): HANEMANN, WM
Times Cited: 495
2. Title: ATTITUDES TOWARD RISK - EXPERIMENTAL-MEASUREMENT IN RURAL INDIA
Author(s): BINSWANGER, HP
Times Cited: 199
3. Title: WELFARE EVALUATIONS IN CONTINGENT VALUATION - REPLY
Author(s): HANEMANN, WM
Times Cited: 123
4. Title: EFFICIENT REDISTRIBUTION THROUGH COMMODITY-MARKETS
Author(s): GARDNER, B
Times Cited: 109
5. Title: THE ADOPTION OF REDUCED TILLAGE - THE ROLE OF HUMAN-CAPITAL AND OTHER
Author(s): RAHM, MR; HUFFMAN, WE
Times Cited: 102
6. Title: COMMON PROPERTY EXTERNALITIES - ISOLATION, ASSURANCE, AND RESOURCE DEPLETION
Author(s): RUNGE, CF
Times Cited: 102
7. Title: AN ECONOMIC-MODEL OF SOIL CONSERVATION
Author(s): MCCONNELL, KE
Times Cited: 99
8. Title: DEMAND FOR BEEF AND CHICKEN PRODUCTS - SEPARABILITY AND STRUCTURAL-CHANGE
Author(s): EALES, JS; UNNEVEHR, LJ
Times Cited: 96
1990-1999
1. Title: STATISTICAL EFFICIENCY OF DOUBLE-BOUNDED DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE CONTINGENT
Author(s): HANEMANN, M; LOOMIS, J; KANNINEN, B
Times Cited: 238
2. Title: Stated preference approaches for measuring passive use values: Choice experiments and contingent valuation
Author(s): Adamowicz, W; Boxall, P; Williams, M, et al.
Times Cited: 153
3. Title: Modeling economics and ecology: The importance of a spatial perspective
Author(s): Bockstael, NE
Times Cited: 143
4. Title: CONTINGENT VALUATION AND SOCIAL CHOICE
Author(s): MCFADDEN, D
Times Cited: 112
5. Title: POSITIVE MATHEMATICAL-PROGRAMMING
Author(s): HOWITT, RE
Times Cited: 108
6. Title: Do roads cause deforestation? Using satellite images in econometric analysis of land use
Author(s): Nelson, GC; Hellerstein, D
Times Cited: 93
7. Title: ACREAGE DECISIONS UNDER RISK - THE CASE OF CORN AND SOYBEANS
Author(s): CHAVAS, JP; HOLT, MT
Times Cited: 93
8. Title: A REPEATED NESTED-LOGIT MODEL OF ATLANTIC SALMON FISHING
Author(s): MOREY, ER; ROWE, RD; WATSON, M
Times Cited: 92
2000-2009
1. Title: The rise of supermarkets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America
Author(s): Reardon, T; Timmer, CP; Barrett, CB, et al.
Times Cited: 95
2. Title: Demand for beef from cattle administered growth hormones or fed GM corn: A comparison of consumers . . .
Author(s): Lusk, JL; Roosen, J; Fox, JA
Times Cited: 61
3. Title: The role of amenities and quality of life in rural economic growth
Author(s): Deller, SC; Tsai, TH; Marcouiller, DW, et al.
Times Cited: 57
4. Title: Transactions costs and agricultural household supply response
Author(s): Key, N; Sadoulet, E; de Janvry, A
Times Cited: 57
5. Title: In-store valuation of steak tenderness
Author(s): Lusk, JL; Fox, JA; Schroeder, TC, et al.
Times Cited: 46
6. Title: Effects of cheap talk on consumer willingness-to-pay for golden rice
Author(s): Lusk, JL
Times Cited: 43
7. Title: Surplus distribution from the introduction of a biotechnology innovation
Author(s): Falck-Zepeda, JB; Traxler, G; Nelson, RG
Times Cited: 40
8. Title: The Food Stamp Program and food insufficiency
Author(s): Gundersen, C; Oliveira, V
Times Cited: 36
What will be remembered?
• The reality is that little will probably be
remembered 100 years from now
• What are the commonalities among the
highly cited papers of yesteryear?
• What causes them to be cited remembered?
– tend to offer a new or improved theory or method
 but you can see trends in “hot topics” that fade
 occasionally a paper is cited for the topic studied, but topical
issues are likely come and go more frequently than
theory/methods
– often written by a “big name”
 does the “big name” cause sites or vice versa?
What do consumers want?
• Everything
– But resources are scarce . . .
• We have traditionally tried to answer this
question by estimating preferences
– Hedonics
– Demand systems
– Contingent Valuation
– Experiments
What do consumers want?
• Will these methods continue to work with
increasingly novel and differentiated goods?
– How stable are preferences?
– Where do preferences come from?
– What about beliefs, information, and knowledge?
Food Values
Tradition , 2.9%
Fairness, 3.1%
Environmental Impact ,
1.7%
Appearance , 3.5%
Origin , 4.4%
Convenience, 5.5%
Safety , 35.5%
Naturalness, 6.3%
Price, 8.7%
Taste, 12.7%
Nutrition , 15.8%
Source: Lusk, 2008
The CAC Method
Step 4
Submit bids
Step 1
Rate the
desirability of
many attribute
levels
auction
bids
Step 2
Rate the relative
importance of
attributes
Step 3
Calibrate utility
function to generate
desirable bids
Source: Lusk, and Norwood 2010
What lies ahead?
• More on the role of information on consumer
choice and welfare
• More research seeking to combine data
sources and methods
• More research on beliefs
• More behavioral economics
– but look for more probing about what behavioral findings
really mean