Mathematics: Grade Level Kindergarten
Classroom Assessments Based on Standards
Impossible? Likely? Certain?
Source: adapted from Assessment Sampler
Mathematical Idea: Probability
Format: Game or interview
Type of Assessment: Formative
Thinking Level: 2
MPS Learning Target: Probability and Statistics
Learning Target 7
Collect, organize, represent, and describe data to answer questions and identify the
likelihood of events.
Descriptors
E.b: 5 Describe the likelihood (e.g., possible, impossible, likely) of events.
Skills Assessed:
Understanding of vocabulary, impossible, likely and certainly to describe an event.
Materials Needed:
1-set of event cards
1-copy of the event worksheet
Task:
1. Read the event cards to the students.
2. Have the student place each card in the event category in which it belongs. (Impossible,
Likely or Certainly)
3. Students should explain their reasons for placing each card.
4. Teachers record students’ reasoning for unexpected answers. See attached cards and
recording sheets.
Developed by the Milwaukee Mathematics Partnership (MMP), an initiative of the Milwaukee Partnership Academy
(MPA), supported with funding from the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0314898.
Impossible
Never
Won’t happen
Walk up a building
Likely
Probably
Might happen
Possibly
See clouds in the sky
Certain
Always
Will happen
Grow bigger
Developed by the Milwaukee Mathematics Partnership (MMP), an initiative of the Milwaukee Partnership Academy (MPA), supported with funding from the National Science Foundation under Grant No.
0314898.
Event Cards
You will drink water today.
You will have 5 birthdays this
year.
.
There will be an elephant in your
living room when you get home.
The sky will be green tomorrow.
Everyone will be in class
tomorrow.
You will have spaghetti for
supper.
Touching fire will hurt you.
You will read a book tonight.
Developed by the Milwaukee Mathematics Partnership (MMP), an initiative of the Milwaukee Partnership Academy
(MPA), supported with funding from the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0314898.