Potential for Renewable Energies’ Application
for Heating in the Industrial Sector
– A Case Study of Selected APEC Economies
June 21, 2017
Sichao Kan, Yoshiaki Shibata
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
Alexey Kabalinskiy, Cecilia Tam
Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (APERC)
Copyright© 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved
1
Outline
•Introduction
•Methodology
•Result
•Conclusion
Copyright© 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved
2
Introduction: Energy Consumption in the Industry Sector
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Non-ferrous metals
Machinery
Transport
equipment
Textile and leather
Non-specified
(industry)
Wood and wood
products
Mining and
quarrying
Construction
Chemical and
petrochemical
Food and tobacco
Paper, pulp and print
Iron and steel
Non-metallic
minerals
Industry
APEC
range
APEC
weigh
ted
avera
ge
Non-electricity final energy demand in the industrial sector in APEC region (2014)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016
Selected APEC economy in this study: Chile, People’s Republic of China, Japan, New Zealand,
Republic of the Philippines, Russia, Thailand, and the United States
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Introduction: RE technologies for heating and cooling
Flat plate
solar collector
Ground source
heat pump
Source: https://www.epa.gov/rhc/renewable-industrial-process-heat
Source: http://www.steeltimesint.com/news/view/brazil-one-year-on-with-charcoal-sustainability-protocol
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4
Introduction: Applicable RE technologies by temperature range
Source: US EPA, https://www.epa.gov/rhc/renewable-industrial-process-heat
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5
Introduction: Breakdown of useful heat demand
1400
1200
1000
800
Low temperature range: < 100 degree C
Medium temperature range: 100 ~ 400 degree C
High temperature range: >400 degree C
Low temperature
Medium temperature
High temperature
PJ
600
400
200
0
Breakdown of useful heat demand in EU for 2009
Data source: N. Pardo, K. Vatopoulos, A. Krook-Riekkola, J.A. Moya, and A. Perez (2012): “Heat and cooling
demand market and perspective”, EU Joint Research Center Scientific and Policy Report.
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6
Methodology: Useful energy
Useful energy
=
Final energy consumption
×
Efficiency of heat supply
technologies
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Methodology: Industrial sub-sectors and technologies
Renewable option: technology required is already at the mass market stage and the resource
availability is not constraint by location
Subsector: manufacturing sub-sectors where heat demand is larger than electricity or where most
heat applications are in the low or medium temperature range
LT
MT
HT
LT
MT
Biomass
Solar thermal
Geothermal (HP or
thermal water)
Renewable heat technology and industrial sub-sector selection results
HT
LT
MT
HT
Iron and steel
●
●
●
●
Chemical and petrochemical
●
●
●
●
●
Non-metallic minerals
●
●
●
●
●
Machinery
●
●
●
●
●
Food and tobacco
●
●
●
●
Paper, pulp and printing
●
●
●
●
●
Non-specified (industry)
●
●
●
●
●
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Methodology: Calculation flow overview
Heat demand profile module
Useful heat demand in each
temperature range within each
sub-sector
Renewable resource supply
potential module
Supply potential of GSHP, solar,
and biomass (useful energy base)
(Note #1)
Renewable heat potential determination module
RE potential for meeting LT heat demand:
Determine the RE tech deployment priorities by cost
(Note #2)
RE potential constraint by resource supply potential and
demand
RE potential for meeting MT and HT heat demand:
Only biomass is applicable for MT and HT heat and
since biomass availability also depends on demand from
other sectors, the potential for industrial use is
determined by scenarios (Note #3)
Note #1: supply potential of GSHP and solar thermal is calculated from factory area and building footprint, biomass
supply potential in the P&P sector comes from byproducts of pulp production
Note #2: for the P&P sector, biomass (byproduct) will be deployed first
Note #3: 10% (assumption) of on-site non-biomass useful heat demand on top of existing biomass consumption.
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Methodology: Heat demand profile
Useful heat demand in each temperature range =
final energy consumption * temperature allocation matrix * efficiency matrix
Final energy consumption (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector, ktoe)
…
1980
…
2013
2014
Other
bitumin
…
ous
coal
0 2,816
…
…
0 4,304
0 4,232
Liquefie
d
petrole
um
gases
(LPG)
Natural
…
gas
0
…
0
0
0
…
985
973
…
Munici
Industri pal
Primary
Biogase Biodies
al
waste solid
…
s
els
waste (renew biofuels
able)
Gas/die
sel oil
Fuel oil …
excl.
biofuels
0
…
105
95
741 5,874
…
…
860 1,153
858 1,085
0
…
0
0
0
…
530
515
0
…
0
0
0
…
0
0
0
…
0
0
0
…
0
0
Charco Geothe Solar
…
al
rmal
thermal
0
…
0
0
0
…
0
0
0
…
0
0
0
…
0
0
Heat
…
…
…
…
Total
0 11,129
…
…
0 11,101
0 10,879
Temperature allocation matrix (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector)
…
…
…
…
LT
MT
HT
Other
bitumin
…
ous
coal
Natural
…
gas
6.1% 6.1% 5.4% …
5.7% 5.7% 5.0% …
88.1% 88.1% 78.5% …
Liquefie
d
petrole
um
gases
(LPG)
Gas/die
sel oil
Fuel oil …
excl.
biofuels
Munici
Industri pal
Primary
Biogase Biodies
al
waste solid
…
s
els
waste (renew biofuels
able)
Charco Geothe Solar
…
al
rmal
thermal
5.4% 1.2% 5.4% …
5.0% 1.1% 5.0% …
78.1% 17.1% 78.6% …
6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.1% 1.2% …
5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 1.1% …
86.5% 86.5% 88.2% 88.2% 17.1% …
6.1% 100% 100% …
5.7% 0.0% 0.0% …
88.2% 0.0% 0.0% …
Heat
Total
51.8% 48.2% 0.0% -
Efficiency matrix (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector)
LT
MT
HT
…
Other
bitumin
…
ous
coal
…
…
…
60%
60%
90%
60%
60%
90%
Natural
…
gas
Liquefie
d
petrole
um
gases
(LPG)
80% …
80% …
95% …
70%
70%
90%
Gas/die
sel oil
Fuel oil …
excl.
biofuels
70%
70%
90%
70% …
70% …
90% …
Munici
Industri pal
Primary
Biogase Biodies
al
waste solid
…
s
els
waste (renew biofuels
able)
Charco Geothe Solar
…
al
rmal
thermal
70% …
70% …
90% …
60% 133% 100% …
60% …
90% …
60%
60%
90%
60%
60%
90%
60%
60%
90%
80%
80%
95%
Heat
Total
111-
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and authors estimation and assumption
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10
Methodology: Renewable resource supply potential
GSHP
Heat Extracted from Ground Source (ktoe/year)
＝ Available Area (m2)
× Heat Extraction Rate (W/m)
× Density of Heat Exchange Well (wells/m2 )
× Depth of Heat Exchange Well (m/well)
× Operation Hours (hours/year)
× Adjustment Coefficient
× Convertion Coefficient (8.60E-12 (Wh->ktoe))
GSHP useful heat supply potential = heat extracted from ground source * (COP/(COP-1))
Solar thermal
Useful heat supply potential of solar thermal (ktoe/year)
＝ Available Area (m2)
× Solar Radiation (MJ/m2/day)
× System Overall Efficiency (0.4)
× 365 (days/year)
× Convertion Coefficient (2.39E-8 (Wh->ktoe))
Biomass
Paper, pulp and printing sub-sector: biomass supply comes as an on-site by-product. Potential
determined by production.
Other sub-sectors: potential determined by scenario, which is 10% of the subsector’s non-renewable
on-site heat supply
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Methodology: Supply potential (available area)
Reference (value of Japan)
• Land use productivity (total industrial
value added/ land use)
• Building footprint ratio (= building
footprint/factory occupation area)
Economy index
• Land use productivity index: land use
productivity compared to Japan
• Ratio of building footprint: same with
Japan’s value
Available area
• Factory occupation area=Ref. Land use productivity * economy
index * subsector output value (UNIDO)
• Building footprint = factory occupation area * building footprint
ratio
 Land use productivity index = f(population density index)
 Available area for GSHP = 10% * (factory occupation area – building footprint)
 Available area for solar thermal = building footprint * 0.88
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Methodology: GSHP and Solar thermal potential
60,000
51,084
50,000
GSHP
45,120
40,999
Solar thermal
38,436
ktoe
40,000
30,000
17,129
20,000
10,000
9,282
992
813
2,518
3,506
575
662
364
327
1,390
1,148
0
GSHP and Solar thermal potential (useful energy)
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Methodology: Biomass potential in P&P sector
18,000
16,000
14,000
ktoe
12,000
16,018
Biomass by products
potential
On site heat demand
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
7,230
6,626
2,696
1,828
1,169
3,621
3,091
2,177
283 129
56 54
366
657
331
0
Biomass by product potential and on site heat demand
2014 (useful energy base)
 Biomass potential: by product of chemical wood pulp production
 Per ton of pulp production:
-1.5 ton black liquor solids
-300kg of bark
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Methodology: Renewable heat potential determination
1400
2014
1200
1200
1000
1000
USD/toe
USD/toe
1400
800
600
800
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
GSHP
Soalr
Biomass
2040
GSHP
Soalr
Biomass
Levelized heat supply cost (USD/toe)
Renewable heat potential = min(heat demand, RE supply potential)
 Low temperature range: priority of deployment of RE technologies determined by levelized heat
supply cost
 Medium- and high- temperature range: only biomass is applicable.
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Result: RE heat potential by industry
300000
300000
250000
250000
200000
200000
150000
150000
100000
100000
50000
2040 (estimation)
350000
2014 (observed value)
ktoe
ktoe
350000
4
79
440
15
7,044
30,772
3,865
0
50000 6,632
0
54,521
42,01249,11029,047
26,75626,628
Renewable Energy Consumption for Heat
Potential for Renewable Heat
Total energy demand
Total energy demand
Renewable energy consumption for heating in 2014 (observed) and its potential
in 2040 (estimation)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and estimation by authors
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30000
25000
ktoe
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
27,907 40%
36%
35%
30%
28%
26%
25%
20%
7,705
13%15%
10%
7%
2,311
2,187
1,661
5%
198
49
3%201
0%
0%
0%
%
Result: RE heat consumption by economy (2014)
Renewable Energy Consumption for Heat
Share of RE heat in total final energy consumption
Total renewable energy consumption for heat and its share in total final energy
consumptions in selected industry subsectors by economy (2014)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016
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17
ktoe
Result: Industrial RE heat potential by economy (2040)
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
4,814
95,229 12,241 1,318
Total final energy demand
7,068
12,234 17,927
83,876
Potential for Renewable Heat
Potential for renewable heat and total energy consumption in selected
industries by economy (2040)
Source: estimation by authors
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Result: Industrial RE heat potential by technology
160000
133,416
140000
120000
ktoe
100000
75,376
80000
60000
41,820
40000
25,914
20000
398
1
0
Geothermal
Solar Thermal
Consumption in 2014
Biomass
Estimated potential in 2040
Potential for renewable heat and total energy consumption in
selected industries by economy (2040)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and estimation by authors
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Conclusion
Paper, pulp and printing and Food and tobacco are the subsectors with the most
renewable energy consumption for industrial heat at present. However, the subsector with
the highest potential in the future is supposed to be the Chemical and petrochemical
subsector.
Among the 8 economies, the United States is using the most renewable energy for heat in
the industry sector, but in terms of share of renewable heat in the industrial final energy
consumption Chile is the front runner. However, the highest potential for renewable heat
applications in the industry sector is supposed to be in the People’s Republic of China,
where the industrial energy demand is considerable huge compared to the other
economies.
Biomass is the most used renewable energy in the industry sector at present and its
potential for industrial heat supply is supposed to be the highest also in the future.
With the continuing cost reduction, solar thermal is expected to become the lowest cost
renewable options for low temperature heat demand in most economies, which makes its
potential significant in 2040 despite its negligible utilization in the industry subsector at
present.
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