Introduction
Key Findings
First Phase
Germany ‘06
England
Annex
World Cup 2006 Audience Analysis
With wealth and technology driving up access to television
across the World – and with the ceaseless rise in the
popularity of football – this summer’s World Cup has the
potential to produce the biggest television audiences ever
seen. We’ve undertaken the first comprehensive research
into just how many could be tuning in.
Approach
We’ve taken a unique “bottom-up” approach to look at how
many people in the world have the means to watch the
World Cup in each country – and then analysed past data
on viewing behaviour to produce estimates of how many
will actually do so.
We draw on a range of sources including World Bank data
for the number of people with TV access in each country
as well as a wide range of research on a country’s interest
in football. We’ve used this to build a model which, based
on statistical analysis of audience data from previous
World Cups, predicts the number of people watching every
game in each country across the globe. The model takes
into account the factors driving viewers – whether the
home country is playing; the stage of the competition; the
kick-off time and the quality of the teams involved.
Findings
After the summary on the next page, our findings are split
into three areas – First Phase Analysis; Tournament-level
findings and a more detailed focus on England’s Quest.
footballeconomics.com
World Cup 2006 Audience Analysis
1
Introduction
Key Findings
First Phase
Germany ‘06
England
Annex
Our Key Findings
Our research finds England’s supporters can be split into
four groups – one group, the ‘Diehards’, are those that will
even find themselves missing work to watch this game at
2pm on a Tuesday.
5 million England
‘Diehards’ will tunein to Togo versus
South Korea
Based on the favourites progressing, we expect the largest
TV audience ever for the final – 17% of the World’s
population. This just exceeds FIFA’s estimate for the 2002
final and dwarfs other sporting events – the Superbowl
drew less than 100 million.
A record global
audience of 1.2
billion viewers for the
world cup final
Dramatic growth in China means they now have a
massive potential audience – due to Asia’s growing
importance, a lunch-time kick off for the final would
increase viewers by 250 million – some 20%.
China and East Asia
viewing habits a key
driver of audience
numbers
Figure 1 – Distribution
of viewers across the
globe
Bookies suggest Japan will come bottom of Group F but
they may still be the most-watched team in the first phase
– with Brazil in their group, 99% of the home population
with TV access and several Asia-friendly kick-offs they’ll
get a cumulative global audience of 1.3 bn
footballeconomics.com
Japan most-watched
in first phase despite
likely wooden spoon
World Cup 2006 Audience Analysis
2
Introduction
Key Findings
First Phase
Germany ‘06
England
Annex
First Phase Analysis
Japan and Group F will be the most watched over the
first phase…
With three Asia-friendly early kick-offs, and some large
home audiences – Japan, Brazil, Croatia and Australia will
attract a cumulative total of 2.4 billion viewers.
Although bookies suggest Japan will come bottom of
Group F, they may still be the most-watched team in the
first phase – with 99% of homes in Japan having a TV, a
large domestic audience will help to produce a cumulative
global audience of 1.3 billion.
… and Paraguay will play in both the most and least
popular game
The pick of the first stage in terms of the global audience,
will be England vs. Paraguay which will attract almost half
a billion viewers. The fact it’s on a weekend will help and a
lunch-time kick-off enables Asian viewers to tune-in. The
involvement of one of the favourites edges out other lunchtime kick offs.
Paraguay will also be involved in the least-watched game
– ‘just’ 270 million tuning in to watch their game with the
team ranked 51st in the world and given only a 1 in 800
chance of wining: Trinidad and Tobago.
The most-watch game in Europe will be Italy versus USA –
attracting a global audience of 370 million
footballeconomics.com
World Cup 2006 Audience Analysis
3
Introduction
Key Findings
First Phase
Germany ‘06
England
Annex
The Tournament and Final – How does Germany
2006 Compare?
We expect a global audience of 1.2 billion viewers – this
just exceeds FIFA’s estimate of the previous World Cup
and dwarfs other sporting events – the Superbowl which
drew less than 100 million. Our estimate of TV viewers
suggests that around 17% of the world’s population will be
tuned-in to the final
But the figure could be even larger
If the final was moved back to lunch-time, the extra
viewers in the East would exceed those turning off in the
Americas (see chart) and increase the number of viewer
by 250 million
China’s growing influence on the world economy is also
evident – 91 per cent of households in China now have
access to a television – some 1.2 billion viewers. The
number of TVs per thousand people has increased to 350
in 2004 compared with around a figure of just 9 in 1980.
Viewer Typologies
Our research has found 4 distinct groups of England
supporter:
Diehards
Couch Potatoes
Patriots
Converts
the 5 million who
might find themselves skipping
work to watch
Togo vs. South
Korea at 2pm on a
Tuesday
if it’s on, they’ll
watch it – another
5 million will join
the DieHards to
watch Mexico vs.
Angola during
prime time on a
Sunday
not interested in
the other teams,
just the England
games for the 10
million in this group
don’t care about
the first phase but
un-able to stay
away if England
progress – another
3 million if England
reach the semis
Cumulative viewers are equivalent to everyone in the
world watching 4 games
Over the course of the World Cup the cumulative number
of ‘games viewed’ will reach a staggering 25.5 billion – if
this was evenly distributed around the world’s population
(just over 6.5 billion), it would be equivalent to each person
watching almost 4 games.
footballeconomics.com
World Cup 2006 Audience Analysis
4
Introduction
Key Findings
First Phase
Germany ‘06
England
Annex
England’s Quest: Viewers Tuning-in Back Home
The first phase…
For everyone that’s managed to get a ticket to England’s
first game in Frankfurt there’ll be 350 viewers tuned in
back home – this’ll rise to almost 500 for the game against
Sweden.
For games not involving England, home viewers prefer
weekend games – Italy vs. USA is set to attract 11.5
million. In mid-week though, the pick of the first phase is
Netherlands vs. Argentina – attracting 11 million.
If England’s last group game against Sweden is key to
qualification, there will be some 22 million home viewers –
joined by almost 3 million in Sweden and over 300 million
others worldwide.
…And beyond?
Whilst some fans will be hoping for an ‘easy’ route to the
final, the most-watched route would probably require a
second place in the group followed by Germany,
Argentina, Italy – and Brazil in the final – attracting 12
million more viewers than a path based on bookies’
favourites.
A semi-final against Italy or Brazil would attract over 23
million viewers and may set a new record which, according
to the BBC, was the 24 million that watched England’s
game against Argentina in France 98. If England reached
the final, viewers would top 30 million.
footballeconomics.com
World Cup 2006 Audience Analysis
5
Introduction
Key Findings
First Phase
Germany ‘06
England
Annex
Annex – Our Approach and About Us
We have employed a two stage approach:

Desk research – drawing on international research
& data on TV audiences.

Building a unique audience estimate model – to
forecast TV audiences.
The model creates viewing estimates for every country
taking into account two groups of drivers:
Country characteristics
Match-specific drivers
How big is the population?
How many of those people have access
to televisions?
What does research say about how
many people follow football?
What’s the effect of competition phase?
How many people will only tune-in if
their team is involved?
How good are the teams that are
playing?
Does the game kick off in prime-time?
Or is it at 3am?
Our team for World Cup 2006
With the rising availability and complexity of financial and
non-financial information, Football Economics was formed
to meet the growing demand for high quality quantitative
advice.
Football Economics draws on a network of professionals
with a knowledge of the football industry and expertise in
their own field. The project team for World Cup 2006 was:
For media enquiries or
further details please
contact Ian Mitchell:
worldcup@
footballeconomics.com
Ian Mitchell, Director – experienced economist with over 7
years experience. Now a senior government economist,
Ian started his career at Ernst and Young before moving
on to obtain significant media exposure as an Economist at
a high-profile think tank
Lewis Crouch – operational research analyst with an
advanced knowledge of modelling techniques and
experience of consultancy in the public and private sectors
Tom Nicholls – An economist with experience in
consultancy and a detailed knowledge of the economics of
football. Tom studied under leading football academic,
Professor John Goddard, University of Wales, Bangor.
footballeconomics.com
World Cup 2006 Audience Analysis
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