MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
Focus topic – Tech start-ups
China’s start-up gold rush is driving increasingly speculative investments
Regional distribution of China's unicorns
New-found confidence in China’s ability to sustainably
transform tech start-ups into profitable firms has spurned a
torrent of new business registrations. Emboldened by the
successes of firms such as Tencent, Xiaomi, Huawei, and
Alibaba, young Chinese graduates who dream of inventing
the next big thing increasingly prefer jobs in IT over
finance and consulting.
The Chinese government has taken an active role in
encouraging tech developments seen as vital to securing
China’s future. This approach plays out according to a
familiar script, which ends up distorting market
mechanisms. Local governments pick sectors and
companies based on connections and the ambitions of
local bureaucrats. The state’s firepower is immense:
China’s state-backed investors are equipped with 339 bn
USD finance tech entrepreneurs or incubators. This is
complemented by reducing administrative regulations as
well as tax rebates.
Source: Ministry of Science and Technology / MERICS
Internet opportunities fueling entrepreneurial spirit
New business registration, in million
6
Private venture capital investors hungry for high returns
have also eagerly bankroll China’s technological ambitions
through investment in start-ups promising quick growth.
The real value of venture capital investment increased by
almost five hundred percent between 2010 and 2016. Last
year, more than 53 percent of venture capital investments
flowed into IT and internet related companies. Not only
institutional investors are taking part, private households
are also contributing via less regulated P2P lending
platforms.
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: State Administration for Industry & Commerce
Self-employment on the rise
Share of self-employed in urban labor force
25%
20%
Investments in start-ups are by nature speculative. In
many segments a highly competitive battle for market
shares has already erupted. Aware of the risks, the central
government has begun cracking down on online lending
platforms. Despite the fact that no wave of start-up
collapse has been seen so far, it is clear that risky tech
entrepreneurship cannot only produce winners: there must
also be losers.
The start-up gold rush is less shiny then one would think:
First, the market driven tech scene is centered in three
cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, as well as cities in the
periphery, most notably Hangzhou, the home of Alibaba.
The
development
highlights
China’s
regional
discrepancies. While the key economic centers are
transforming their economies and can attract necessary
talent and capital, less developed regions are at risk at
falling further behind.
15%
10%
5%
0%
2010
Source: NBS
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Second, in the wake of record new business registrations,
the share of self-employment has increased sharply. By
MERICS estimates, the average newly registered
company in China 2016 employed 1.04 employees. They
are hence most likely to be small e-commerce stores
lacking a commercially viable business plan. Failure will
cause financial harm to the individuals as well as their
creditors
MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
Economy
False sign of strength: China’s GDP growth level is unsustainable
Headwinds for China's economy to intensify in next
quarters
GDP growth by sector, yoy quarterly
 The uptick in GDP growth is only temporary.
 Strong industrial production pushes up GDP.
 Government struggles to balance tighter polices and
economic growth.
 Sharp increase in household credit adds to financial
risks.
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011
GDP
2012
2013
2014
2015
Secondary industry
2016
2017
Tertiary sector
Source: NBS
Services sector weakening, while industry boosts growth
Growth by economic sector, yoy
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Services
Industry
2016
Construction
Agriculture
2017 Q1
China’s economy has been able to maintain its growth
momentum over the past six months. The growth target of
“around” 6.5 percent effectively is a bottom floor for
acceptable growth and highlights the Chinese leaderships’
continued obsession with GDP growth. The growth target
however remains too ambitious as new growth engines
are not strong enough. Stronger growth in a range of
economic indicators in March is likely to carry over into the
next quarter. Potentially this could provide the government
an opportunity to advance structural reforms and roll back
investment driven growth. Concerned that reforms might
negatively affect growth, the government will tread
carefully.
In the months leading up to the crucial Communist Party
Congress in November later this year the government
remains focused on maintaining stable economic growth.
Propping up growth requires continuous government
intervention, which can increase risks. Trouble spots,
including rapidly rising debt levels and stalled reform
efforts, have become more pronounced. Maintaining the
current level of GDP growth has become an increasingly
sophisticated balancing act for policy makers. It is
becoming increasingly apparent that reaching the
politically charged economic growth targets while
advancing meaningful reforms cannot easily be done
simultaneously.
Source: NBS
E-commerce driving growth in service sector
Growth by service sector industries, yoy
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2016
2017 Q1
Source: NBS
Note: "IT and software" and "business services" categories were previously part
of "other".
In the first quarter growth especially benefited from
stronger industrial production, indicating stalling reform
efforts in heavy industries. Growth in services fell to 7.7
percent, down from 8.3 percent in 2016. Real estate
related services remained a strong driver for growth, as an
array of restrictions targeting speculative investments in
first and secondary cities showed limited effect. The
second driver for services growth is centered on a start-up
frenzy. E-commerce and on-demand services fueled
growth in logistics and IT related services. (see above)
The current enthusiasm about the current acceleration of
growth is likely to ebb off over the coming months. Current
growth levels are not sustainable without increasing longterm risk by failing to deal with problems such as asset
spikes and rising debt levels.
MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
Investment
Recovery in private investment to be tested
State driven investment remains crucial for stability
Fixed-asset investment, ytd yoy growth
 Private investment picks up, while new state backed
investments announced
 Economic situation in China’s north east grim
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
0%
2015
Total
2016
Private
2017
State-owned and holdings
State-driven investment, particularly in infrastructure,
remains a crucial stabilizing factor for economic growth. In
the first quarter 56 fixed asset investment projects, totaling
35bn USD were approved. The surprise announcement to
build a new mega-city in the Xiongan New Area can also
be interpreted as a signal that state investment in
infrastructure will continue to be strong over the coming
years.
Source: NBS
2016
Eastern
Central
Mar
Jan/Feb
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Jan/Feb
Mar
China's northeastern provinces highlight growing
regional disparities
Private fixed-asset investment by economic region, ytd yoy
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
2017
Western
Northeast
Source: NBS
Start-up boom fueling venture capital investments
Venture capital investment, in USD mn
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0
2010
Source: ChinaVenture
2011
2012
Following a steep divergence of investment activity
between state-owned entities and private companies in
2016, the first quarter of 2017 saw convergence. Fixedasset investment by private enterprises jumped to 7.7
percent following 3.2 percent growth in 2016, while
investment growth from state-owned enterprises slowed to
13.6 percent, down from 18.7 in 2016. The recovery in
private investment however will be put to the test if the
government follows through with its plans to reign in credit.
2013
2014
2015
2016
The recent uptick in private investments reflects a general
more positive sentiment in the economy, which began in
the last quarter of 2016. Investment activity grew strongest
in the agricultural sector (21.1 percent). Investment in the
secondary sector (manufacturing and construction)
accelerated by 1.7 points compared to the previous
quarter to 4.9 percent. Investment in the service sector
was particularly strong, recording an increase of 9.8
percent. Private investment in services accounted for a
higher share of total investments than investment in the
secondary sector. Investors are increasingly attracted by
China’s dynamic and competitive internet service sector
where tech companies are currently aggressively battling
for market shares. (see above)
China’s richer coastal regions again outpaced the less
developed regions in the interior, accounting for 52.2
percent of private fixed-asset investments. This not only
underlines the economic strength of China's main
economic centers around the Bohai Rim, Yangtze and
Pearl River Delta, but also their higher ability to modernize
their economic structure compared to China's western,
central, and northeastern regions. The difference is a clear
symptom of China’s growing regional divide: the western,
central and northeastern regions have not been able to
modernize as quickly. Private investment in China's
struggling northeastern provinces remains dire. Growth in
underdeveloped western provinces has remained low
while central provinces have performed better.
Note: Eastern region: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu,
Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan. Central region:
Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. Western region: Inner
Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet,
Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang.
MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
International trade and investment
Global volatilities increase risk to foreign trade
Foreign trade beast expectations in first quarter
Imports and exports, USD basis yoy growth
 Exports and imports show strong growth in Q1
 Potential trade war with U.S. avoided for now
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
2015
2016
Imports
2017
Exports
An overly optimistic interpretation may be premature
though. The recent meeting between U.S. President
Trump and President Xi has avoided immediate escalation
of a trade conflict with both sides attempting to maintain
constructive trade relations. The end of an agreed 100-day
period to boost U.S. exports to China is due to coincide
with a report on unfair trade practices by the U.S.
Department of Commerce. For now, it seems that the
issue has been postponed rather than resolved. Combined
with geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in global
demand, Chinese exports will face an uphill battle in the
coming quarters.
Source: General Administration of Custom
Chinese currency is getting a grip on devaluation
Weighted average monthly spot rate, inverted graph
6
7
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
8
9
2014
2015
CNY/USD
2016
2017
CNY/EUR
Source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center
Outward investment surges in 2016 but slowdown
expected in 2017
Utilized foreign and outward investment, in bn USD
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2009
2010
2011
FDI
Source: Ministry of Commerce
2012
2013
ODI
2014
2015
Exchange rate market interventions and stricter capital
controls introduced by the Peoples' Bank of China have
proved reasonably effective in defending the Chinese
currency, which has only depreciated slightly against the
USD since the start of the year. As a further sign of easing
pressure on the CNY, China’s foreign exchange reserves
climbed above the 3 trillion USD mark, after dropping
below that threshold in January.
Following a surge in outbound foreign direct investments
in 2016, totaling 170.1 billion USD, OFDI growth in the first
quarter contracted by 48.8 percent. The momentum
cooled amid stricter scrutiny with the aim to slow capital
outflows. The policies have primarily affected outbound
investments in property and trophy investments. It reflects
a shift from speculative to more strategic investments, as
investments in key industries around the Made in China
2025 program have been less affected and are likely to
continue. Meanwhile inbound foreign direct investment
contracted by 1 percent in the quarter. As a result,
inbound investment stood at 32.8 bn USD while outbound
investment totaled 20.5bn USD.
180
2008
Beating expectations, foreign trade was left unaffected by
potential trade frictions with the United States. Higher
commodity prices, strong domestic demand as well as a
weaker CNY, contributed to lifting Chinese imports.
Growth in the first quarter surged by 24 percent in USD
terms. Stronger foreign demand in March let exports
expand by 8.2 percent in the first three months. This
development provides relief for China’s manufacturing
sector. Higher growth in exports and imports, however,
was also affected by base effects resulting from low
growth in the reference period in 2016.
2016
MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
Financial Markets
Central bank trying to find right balance for credit growth
Tighter monetary policy to reign in speculative lending
New monthly loans, in bn CNY
 Policy makers attempting to contain financial risks
and speculative investments
 Surging household credit new area of concern
2.500
2.000
Concerned about increased leverage, the Chinese
government attempted to control new credit growth while
trying to avoid overly drastic cuts which might affect GDP
growth. Balancing financial stability and stable growth has
become increasingly challenging. The government’s
willingness to resolutely implement tightening measures
will to a large degree depend on its top priority: reaching
the GDP growth target.
1.500
1.000
500
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
2015
2016
2017
Source: PBOC
Efforts to clean up balance sheets reduces bad debt
Non-performing loans and special mention loans, as share to
outstanding debt
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
Although new loan growth decreased slightly in March,
new loans in the first quarter totaled 4.22 trillion CNY, the
third highest quarterly growth on record. Increasing
infrastructure spending as well as housing mortgages are
at the center of the current credit-fueled stimulus.
Household credit continued to surge in March. Increased
mortgage lending was most profound, as consumers
rushed to purchase real estate before new restrictions
took effect in an effort to cool overheating regional
property markets.. The increased leverage of households
is a new trend, and is riskier than debt held by the public
sector and state-owned enterprises since citizens cannot
expect to receive bail-outs.
1%
0%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2014
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015
Non-performing loans
Q3
In an effort to contain financial risks, the Chinese Banking
Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has attempted to close
regulatory loopholes particularly in the area of loans for
speculative investments. Equally the central bank, the
Peoples’ Bank of China (PBOC), has carefully tightened
monetary policy by increasing money market instruments
including the interbank repo rate, a major rate at which
commercial banks can lend from the central bank. Recent
investigation against the assistant chairman of the
Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) as well
as debt default of Huishan Dairy however highlight the
turmoil in the financial sector.
Q4
2016
Special mention loans
Source: CBRC
Out of steam: For now China's stock markets have lost
their luster
Composite stock exchange index, end of month data
5.000
4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
2015
Shanghai Stock Exchange
Source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange
Jan
Mar
Nov
Jul
2016
Sep
May
Jan
Mar
Nov
Jul
Sep
Mar
May
Jan
Nov
Jul
2014
Sep
May
Jan
Mar
After having increased over the past three quarters, nonperforming loans, including special mention loans,
decreased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2016 (latest
data). This may be the result of the central government
putting pressure on banks to clean up their balance
sheets. For example, the government pushed for debt-toequity swaps.
2017
Shenzhen Stock Exchange
China's main stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen for
the most remained lackluster following the boom in the
summer of 2015. The government will take measures to
prevent overly optimistic speculation in the future.
MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
Retail
Consumer confidence keeps retail spending high
Retail spending continues double digit growth
Monthly retail sales of consumer goods, yoy growth
 Buoyant economic growth reflected retail spending
 Higher servicing of household debt and lower wage
growth may dampen mood
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
8%
2015
2016
Retail sales
Urban retails sales
2017
Rural retail sales
Source: NBS
China's online retail sector expanding rapidly, but also
affecting brick and mortar retail
Online retail sales of physical goods, yoy ytd growth
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2015
2016
2017
Source: NBS
2015
Furniture
Automobiles
Communication equipment
Mar
Dec
Oct
Clothing
Consumer electronics
Nov
Sep
Jul
2016
Cosmestics
Pharmaceuticals
Data source: NBS
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Dec
Oct
Nov
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
May
Apr
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Mar
Demand for housing related products backed by strong
real estate investments
Selected retail commodities, yoy growth
2017
Retail consumption picked up from the first two months in
2017, expanding by 10 percent in the first quarter. Growth
in rural areas was especially profound, outpacing growth
in urban areas by 1.5 points between January and March.
The strong growth in consumption reflects the current
confidence in the economy amid the recent economic
rebound over the past two quarters.
However, the sharp increase in household debt (see
financial section) combined with potential lower future
wage growth (see labor market) may weigh down on retail
spending in the coming quarters. For now, however, retail
remains unaffected.
Online consumption has maintained its high-paced growth,
expanding by 25.8 percent in the first quarter. Ecommerce now accounts for 12.4 percent of total retail
sales. The shift to online shopping continues to depress
growth in traditional brick-and-mortar businesses. Growth
in that segment fell from 8.1 percent in 2016 to 7.7 percent
in the first quarter.
Backed by a strong real estate market demand for related
products was high. Sales of furniture and housing
decorations picked up by 12.6 percent and 14.8 percent
respectively in the first quarter. Car sales meanwhile
dropped to 2.3 percent as the government rolled back tax
incentives. Demand for hybrid and electric vehicles
maintained its extremely strong momentum, expanding by
247 percent and 65.7 percent respectively.
MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
Industry
Higher demand and profits fuel rapid growth in industrial
Industrial production comes back to life
Total value-added of industrial enterprises, yoy growth
 Industrial production surges amid positive business
sentiment
 Production of industrial robots maintains high paced
growth
8%
7%
6%
5%
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
4%
2015
2016
2017
Source: NBS
Production picked up across key industrial sectors. This
was a result of strong demand and increasing producer
prices. Consequently industrial profits recovered and
surged by 31.5 percent in the first two months (latest
data). Reflecting stronger investment activity, growth in
machinery gained new momentum. Output for
transportation equipment, a sector which had previously
declined, returned to positive growth in the first quarter.
Growth for majority of industrial sectors picking up
Value-added production by industrial sectors, yoy growth
25%
Pharmaceutical
Automobile
20%
Computer and
communication
15%
Instrument and meter
10%
Transportation equiment
(rail, ships, aircraft)
5%
General machinery
2015
2016
Mar
Nov
Sep
Jul
Mar
May
Nov
Jul
May
Mar
-5%
Sep
Special machinery
0%
Electric machinery
2017
Source: NBS
2016
Source: NBS
Mar
Jan/Feb
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Jan/Feb
Mar
Production of high-tech products expanding fast
Output of selected product groups, yoy growth
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
2017
Industrial robots
New energy vehicle
Semiconductors
Sulfuric acid
Cement
Crude steel
Industrial production picked up sharply in the first quarter,
expanding by 6.8 percent. Growth was particular boosted
by an expansion of 7.6 percent in March. This
development puts in question the government’s
commitment to tackling structural problems such as
overcapacities in parts of the economy and dealing with
inefficient state-owned enterprises. For instance, steel
output, already the world’s highest, reached a monthly
record in March.
Output of high tech and vital industrial components also
remained strong. Production of industrial robots picked up
in March, expanding by 78.2 percent. For the quarter,
output increased by 55.1 percent. Amid stronger demand
for new energy vehicles, output also returned to positive
growth after a contraction in the first two months.
MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
Labor market and income
China's labor market remains resilient but wage growth is cooling
Urban job creation keeps unemployment concerns in
check
New urban employment, first quarter in million
 Labor market conditions tightening
 No province increased minimum wage in Q1
3,6
3,4
China’s labor market was surprisingly resilient during a
downward shift in economic growth and has improved
along with accelerated first quarter GDP growth. Between
January and March a total of 3.34 million new jobs were
added in urban areas. This reflects an increase compared
to the first quarters of the previous two years. At the
present rate, new jobs are well on track to reach the
government target of 11 million for 2017. A stable labor
market is a key priority for the government.
3,2
3
2,8
2,6
2,4
2,2
2
2014
2015
2016
2017
The labor market however has some cracks. According to
sub-indices of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a
key measure for business sentiment, demand for labor in
both the manufacturing and the service sector has been
contracting. Government support programs as well as
hesitant layoffs of redundant workers in inefficient stateowned sectors have both contributed to a more positive
labor market picture (see focus topic).
Q1
Source: Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security
Disposable income lifted amid higher economic growth
Disposable income, real ytd yoy growth
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Some provinces implemented new minimum wage
adjustments in the first quarter. Some provinces have
announced increases in the coming months. However, as
a direct result of stronger GDP growth, disposable income
growth, which had previously fallen, increased again.
Doubling 2010 disposable income by 2020 is a major
policy target and partially explains the Chinese
government’s obsession with GDP growth targets.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
2015
National
2016
Urban
2017
Rural
Data source: NBS
Hitting the breaks: No minimum wage adjustments in first
quarter
Number of provinces with increases and average nominal
increase
25%
30
20%
25
20
15%
15
10%
10
5%
5
0%
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 2017 Q1
Number of provinces with increases
Average increase in % (tier 1 only)
Source: MERICS
MERICS Economic Indicators Q1/2017
Quarterly economic analysis and up-to-date macroeconomic data
Main macroeconomic indicators at a glance
Economy: GDP growth by sector, yoy quarterly
Economy: Growth by economic sector, yoy
9%
12%
8%
10%
7%
8%
6%
5%
6%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012
GDP
2013
2014
2015
Secondary industry
2016
6%
4%
2%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
0%
2015
Industry
2016
2016
Construction
2017 Q1
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2017
-6%
2015
Consumer (CPI)
Agriculture
Economic activity: retail, investment,
production: ytd yoy growth
8%
-4%
Services
Tertiary sector
Inflation: Price index for consumer and
producer prices, yoy growth
-2%
0%
2017
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan/Feb
Mar
2011
Producer (PPI)
Retail
Foreign trade: Imports and exports, USD basis
yoy growth
2017
Fixed asset investment
Business confidence: Purchasing Managers'
Index
56
40%
54
>50 expanding
50%
30%
Industrial production
2016
52
20%
50
0%
48
-10%
46
-20%
<50 contracting
10%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
2015
2016
Imports
Exports
2017
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
44
-30%
2015
Manufacturing
2016
Non-manufacturing
2017