SUMMA STRATEGIES ANALYSIS
Federal Election 2015:
Ridings to Watch
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The Ridings
Summa Strategies is home to people from across our great country, representing the three major political
parties. Summa also owns the independent, strategic market research firm Abacus Data. Together, this meeting
of minds makes for happy clients and a very loud lunch room.
It was a challenge, but each member of the Summa team picked one riding that they will be watching closely on
Monday night. Looking for a total seat count from east to west to north as the election results roll in? We've
included that information as well.
Newfoundland & Labrador
2011 Seat Count & Result
7 (4 LPC, 2 NDP, 1 CPC)
2015 Seat Count
7
St. John’s South-Mount Pearl (Tim Powers): If the Liberals are going to win the election, it has to start early
Monday night by stealing an NDP seat in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Ryan Cleary, the NDP incumbent, is
looking to hold on against well-known Liberal candidate Seamus O'Regan. O'Regan is the former co-host of
Canada AM and a long time personal friend of Liberal leader Justin Trudeau. Liberal momentum likely gives
O'Regan the win, but the pugnacious Cleary is never to be underestimated. O'Regan has a great shot at a key
cabinet role if the Liberals win. Cleary could become an NDP folk hero if he fends off O'Regan.
Prince Edward Island
2011 Seat Count & Result
4 (3 LPC, 1 CPC)
2015 Seat Count
4
Egmont (Tracey Hubley): Polls in Prince Edward Island indicate that the province could once again be a
Liberal Party sweep. Egmont used to be considered a safe Liberal seat, but has been held by the Conservatives
since 2008. However, history could be in the making as, for the first time ever, the NDP poses a legitimate
threat to win a seat on the Island. I will be watching to see if incumbent Fisheries Minister Gail Shea (CPC) can
hold on to her seat against Bobby Morrissey (LPC) and Herb Dickieson (NDP). To date, Islanders have never
elected an NDP candidate as a federal Member of Parliament.
Nova Scotia
2011 Seat Count & Result
SUMMA STRATEGIES ANALYSIS
11 (4 CPC, 4 LPC, 3 NDP)
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2015 Seat Count
11
Halifax (Robin MacLachlan): There always seems to be speculation the NDP is in tough in Halifax yet in the
last two elections the local popularity and personal appeal of the NDP’s Megan Leslie has proven
insurmountable. While the governing Nova Scotia Liberals won almost all of the seats that comprise this federal
riding in the last provincial election, the declining popularity of the Premier and the NDP’s strong position at
the outset of the campaign made this look like an easy hold for the NDP’s strong incumbent. That said, the
strength of the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and the sensitivity of this riding to strategic voting has made Halifax
a riding to watch on Monday. The question is whether the NDP’s strong ground game in Halifax and Megan
Leslie’s star power can withstand a red wave that seems to be building on the east coast. Leslie’s main
competition is urban planner and Liberal candidate Andy Filmore. I expect this will be a tight race between the
NDP and the Liberals that could be won by the stronger get out the vote machine.
New Brunswick
2011 Seat Count & Result
10 (8 CPC, 1 NDP, 1 LPC)
2015 Seat Count
10
Fredericton (Ken Whiting): In recent memory, Fredericton has always been a ‘bellwether’ riding, electing
candidates from the winning party in 8 of the last 9 federal elections. While a respectable showing is expected
from the NDP and Greens, it is likely to be a two-way race between Conservative incumbent Keith Ashfield,
counting on his success in generating federal spending for Fredericton, and Liberal Matt DeCoursey, riding the
Liberal surge in Atlantic Canada.
Quebec
2011 Seat Count & Result
75 (59 NDP, 7 LPC, 5 CPC, 4 Bloc)
2015 Seat Count
78 (+3)
Ahuntsic-Cartierville (Louis-Alexandre Lanthier): In the 2011 federal election, the Bloc Québécois was
reduced to 4 while the NDP won 59. In this election, I could probably identify 15 Quebec ridings that are going
to be important battlegrounds for all parties. Even though it is a riding with new boundaries, the Liberals and
Bloc Québécois have both won previous versions of Ahuntsic-Cartierville with narrow margins of 1%-2%.
Incumbent Maria Mourani was elected in 2011 under the Bloc Québécois banner, but is now running for the
NDP. The Liberal Candidate, Mélanie Joly, turned a lot of heads during the last Montreal mayoral race, and was
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heavily supported by Justin Trudeau during a tough nomination battle to become the Liberal candidate. It may
be late in the evening before we discover who has emerged victorious.
Ontario
2011 Seat Count & Result
106 (73 CPC, 22 NDP, 11 LPC)
2015 Seat Count
121 (+15)
Bay of Quinte (David Coletto): Bay of Quinte is the type of riding I'm watching closely in Ontario. It contains
a smaller city (Belleville) with a sizable rural population that includes trendy Prince Edward County. If the
Liberals can win seats like Bay of Quinte, they are well on their way to winning not only a large minority, but
perhaps a majority. There is no incumbent running in this riding, but the CPC technically would have won it in
2011 with 52% of the vote, followed by the NDP (23%) and the Liberals (20%). The CPC candidate is
Belleville City Councillor Jodie Jenkins, the Liberals are running the former Mayor of Belleville Neil Ellis who
won re-election with 75% of the vote. The NDP candidate is Terry Cassidy, a former municipal councillor and
currently the executive director of a community organization.
Markham-Stouffville (Kate Harrison): Markham-Stouffville is typical of many of the new ridings created
through redistribution: a mix of older, established neighbourhoods and new developments that are home to
growing ethnic populations. In Ontario, areas such as York, Peel and Durham Region – all Conservative
strongholds in 2011 – are now back in play for the Liberals. The not-too-distant 2014 provincial election results
proved voters in these ridings are willing to vote for the red team. Conservative incumbent and two term MP
Paul Calandra, who was the Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, is looking to keep this seat blue
against Liberal candidate Jane Philpott, a family physician and professor who lives in Stouffville.
Brampton Centre (Jordan Vig): Numerous polls indicate that the highly contested 905 region of Ontario is
becoming a two-horse race between Liberals and Conservatives, stalling NDP progress that was made in
Ontario in 2011. Brampton Centre is located in one of Canada’s most ethnically diverse areas and has been a
focus of the Conservative Party’s efforts. Conservative Bal Gosal is up against Liberal candidate and lawyer
Ramesh Sangha who is trying to claim a seat in the newly formed riding, but Gosal has the advantage of being
the incumbent, as well as Harper’s Minister of State (Sport). With Brampton Centre having voted solidly
Liberal for almost 20 years until 2011, and this riding being a possible litmus test for the rest of the 905,
Brampton Centre is a very intriguing riding to watch.
Burlington (Lindsay Doyle): The Conservative Party has comfortably held this riding since 2006 with Mike
Wallace, a well-liked constituency MP who recently chaired the Parliamentary Justice Committee. This time, he
is in for quite the fight against Liberal newcomer Karina Gould who, since winning the nomination, has
knocked on over 50,000 doors in the riding and won the endorsements from key community leaders. This riding
is now very much in play since provincial Liberal, Eleanor McMahon, beat former Progressive Conservative
candidate and MPP Jane McKenna in the 2014 Ontario election after over 71 years of Tory rule.
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Manitoba
2011 Seat Count & Result
14 (11 CPC, 2 NDP, 1 LPC)
2015 Seat Count
14
Saint Boniface-Saint Vital (Angela Christiano): The riding is a longtime Liberal stronghold - voting Liberal
in almost every election from its creation in 1925 until 2008 when Conservative Shelly Glover won easily. It is
also home to the largest francophone population in Western Canada. Glover is not seeking re-election and the
race is more competitive than it has been in years. Both the Liberals and NDP are running candidates who have
had electoral success in different parts of the riding. Liberal Dan Vandal served as a city councillor in Winnipeg
for 17 years. Erin Selby is the NDP candidate who has served provincially since 2007. Selby was the Manitoba
health minister and was part of a group of MLAs who resigned their cabinet seats because they were unhappy
with the leadership of Premier Greg Sellinger. I am watching to see if Vandal can win the seat back for the
Liberals on Monday or whether CPC candidate François Catellier can hold it for the blue team.
Saskatchewan
2011 Seat Count & Result
14 (13 CPC, 1 LPC)
2015 Seat Count
14
Saskatoon-University (Alex Monk): First elected in 2004, Conservative MP Brad Trost is running again for
the Tories in the new riding of Saskatoon-University (formerly Saskatoon-Humboldt). As an MP, Trost was
vocally pro-life on issues of reproductive rights, which may now be met with some resistance in a riding that is
home to the University of Saskatchewan’s student population. The Liberal vs NDP battle for the change vote is
also particularly pronounced in urban areas of the province. Liberal candidate Cynthia Block is a well-known
Saskatoon journalist and broadcaster, serving as co-anchor of CTV Saskatchewan’s Evening News for over a
decade. NDP candidate Claire Card was a veterinarian and teacher at the University of Saskatchewan, and for
the past eight years has directed a project in rural Uganda that helps empower women through sustainable
agriculture. It’s a tight three-way race.
Alberta
2011 Seat Count & Result
28 (27 CPC, 1 NDP)
2015 Seat Count
34 (+6)
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Calgary Confederation (Michele Austin): Polls in Alberta indicate that the province remains a strong
supporter of the federal Conservative Party. However, the recent victory of NDP Premier Rachel Notley, and an
overall change in the demographics of major urban centres, means there are a few ridings in Calgary and
Edmonton worth following. Calgary Confederation is a new downtown riding, just north of downtown and
across the Bow River. I will be watching the Conservative/Liberal race between former provincial Progressive
Conservative Cabinet Minister Len Webber (CPC) and young, enthusiastic lawyer Matt Grant (LPC).
Edmonton-Griesbach (Jim Armour): Edmonton-Griesbach is a new riding without a Conservative
incumbent. This downtown riding’s boundaries include three provincial ridings, all held by the Alberta's New
Democrats. NDP candidate Janis Irwin is a former teacher, and vice-principal. She is also the manager of the
senior high school social studies curriculum for the province of Alberta. Daniol Coles is a member of the Metis
Nation of Alberta. He chaired the Liberal Party’s Aboriginal People’s Commission for two years. Conservative
candidate Kerry Diotte is a former one term Edmonton city councillor and finished a distant third as an
Edmonton mayoral candidate in 2013. This one is certainly up for grabs.
British Columbia
2011 Seat Count & Result
36 (21 CPC, 12 NDP, 2 LPC, 1 Green)
2015 Seat Count
42 (+6)
Vancouver Granville (John McHughan): The new, incumbent-free riding of Vancouver-Granville was built
out of the remnants of Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Kingsway and Vancouver South; four
ridings that are held respectively by two Liberal MPs, one NDP MP, and one Conservative MP. CPC candidate
Erinn Broshko has a background in law and business. NDP candidate Mira Oreck is the Director of Public
Engagement at the Broadbent Institute, and worked on Barack Obama’s 2012 Presidential campaign. Liberal
candidate Jody Wilson-Raybould is a former provincial Crown, and was a regional chief with the B.C.
Assembly of First Nation until June 2015. The riding would have gone blue in 2011, with 35% of the vote, but
the changes in public opinion support over this campaign, coupled with three very strong candidates, make
Vancouver Granville a must-watch riding.
Nunavut
2011 Seat Count & Result
1 (CPC)
2015 Seat Count
1
Nunavut (Shay Purdy): Each of the vast ridings in Canada’s north is coveted by all federal parties, Nunavut
perhaps most among them in this campaign. The riding had a long history of electing Liberal MPs until Leona
Aglukkaq captured it for the Conservatives in 2008. Aglukkaq, the incumbent and current Minister of
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Environment, faces strong opposition from both the Liberal and NDP corners this election - though voters could
be confused as to which party they’re actually voting for. The Liberal candidate, Hunter Tootoo, is a former
member of the territorial legislature who ran for the NDP federally in the 1990s. While the NDP candidate, Jack
Anawak, was a Liberal MP for the riding when it was known as Nunatsiaq from 1998 to 1997. Each of the three
main candidates in Nunavut has a lot of experience and strong ties to the riding, and the lack of reliable data on
voter intention in the North makes this one impossible to predict, but fun to watch!
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