What Works: creating an
evidenced based approach
Dr David Halpern
What Works National Adviser &
Director Behavioural Insights Team
How did UK cyclists win?
...radical incrementalism
2
Relative efficacy – 100x average differences
Toby Ord, 2013
The Moral Imperative toward Cost –Effectiveness in Global Health
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Nine out of ten people pay their tax on time.
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Social norms to increase tax payment rates
within 23 days (1 month)
33.6%
35.1%
35.9%
Control (8,558)
UK Norm
(8,300)
Local Norm
(8,403)
37.2%
39.0%
Debt Norm
(8,779)
Local + Debt
Norm (8,643)
© Behavioural Insights ltd
1. Control
2. Norm
3. Norm & Picture
4. Norm & Logo
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5. Three Die
6. Nine Lives
7. Reciprocity
8. Action
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Proportion joining the organ donor
register after a online prompt
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3.1%
2.3%
Control
3.2%
2.2%
Take
Action
1000s
Heart
Lives
3 Die
Would you People
© Behavioural Insights ltd
What Works Centres
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Core idea…
Generate
Transmit
Adopt
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Initial ‘What Works’ Centres cover £200bn
“The What Works Network will bring
a real step-change to our
evidence generating capabilities,
and will further ensure government
takes decisions at the Spending
Round and future events on the
basis of high quality research aimed
at delivering the best possible
outcomes for the public”
Danny Alexander
Chief Secretary to the Treasury
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The first six ‘What Works’ centres
Early Intervention Foundation
Local Economic Growth
NICE
EEF
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Crime reduction
Better Aging
45% of school leaders say they use the
ST/EEF toolkit...
Intervention
Impact
Cost
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Evidence
quality
http://educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/toolkit/
The future…?
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Conclusions
Commissioner and practitioner focused
£200bn ($300bn) spend covered and growing
Implies a different, more humble approach to policy
Department reviews to foster faster progress (BI!)
Strong case for collaboration – many gaps
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Dr David Halpern
What Works National Adviser and Director Behavioural Insights Team
[email protected]
Danielle Mason
Head of What Works Team
[email protected]
@whatworksuk
A lost tradition of experimentation…
Illustration from North Carolina and its Resources by the North Caroline Board of Agriculture, 1896
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A different approach to policy…
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Building evidence infrastructure: propensity
score matching and the Justice data lab
Effect on 1 yr re-offending rate vs treatment size (Significant
results)
Treatment size
3500
3000
76 requests
46 published analyses
16 analyses found significant impact
15 of the significant results were positive
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-40
UNCLASSIFIED
-30
-20
-10
0
Effect on 1 year re-offending rate (percentage points)
10
20
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Not just letters - Job centre results % off
benefits at 13 weeks
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