Clocks & Clouds, Vol. 4, No. 2, Spring 2014
PROSPECT THEORY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Ozzie Chung
relations.
Introduction
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Chung, “Prospect Theory”
the international sphere.
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both cases respondents chose the option with the lower expected
the linear relation between probability and expected utility according to the
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international crises today.
losses.
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possessions
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Chung, “Prospect Theory”
issue.
hand.
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case study on tensions in cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan and
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build their research.
Independent Variable
PRA
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A PRTi
Chung, “Prospect Theory”
Ti
d
A CTi
Ti and
the reference point of a state prior to war. The use of SDBM as a reference
t
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Dependent Variable
win and others lose.
win the wars they initiate.
Control Variable
Outcome
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Coeff.
Std. Err.
z
P>z
SDBM
-6.528278
8.712593
-0.75
0.454
_cons
.1570533
.4684336
0.34
0.737
Outcome
Dy/dx
Coeff.
SDBM
-1.846338
-7.414716
8.894489
-0.83
0.404
CINC Ratio
-.0050917
-.0204477
.0391593
-0.52
0.602
.2459278
.4979753
0.49
0.621
_cons
Std. Err.
z
P>z
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international relations. Though the results suggest that there is no correlation
and test its applicability to international relations.
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a solid foundation for future research on prospect theory in international
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