Science of the MDGs and Global Sustainability:
Identifying Future Goals, Targets and Indicators
Dr. Heidi Wittmer
UFZ, Department Environmental Politics
UFZ Science Policy Expert group
Questions
1. Are MDGs, SDGs + Global Sustainability Goals interchangeable? Similar, different, complementary or conflicting?
→ poverty focussed, should include poverty, global limits
2. Goals, targets and indicators to reflect inter-connections?
Conceptual framework to reflect system dynamics + identify
data required?
3. Need for collective action to achieve these targets?
Resolve dichotomy between principles of universality and
subsidiarity?
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Questions cont.
4. Reconcile data on global environmental indicators
with local, national and regional environmental
indicators? Soc. econ.?
5. Information needs from natural and socio-economic
systems to ensure comparable concrete, quantifiable
and time bound goals, targets and indicators?
6. Steps for scientific community in post 2015 framework
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Goals, targets and indicators to reflect interconnections? Conceptual framework to reflect
system dynamics + identify data required?
1. Interdependence: local-global, between different goals
2. Synergies and trade-offs depend on strategy chosen
3. Issues, analysis, solutions
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1. Science and policy – what are the
challenges?
 Scientific policy advice
–
chief scientist to the UN
Policy/
Society
Science.
 or interface science-policy
Policy/
Society
Science.
Science.
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Policy/
Society
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What we need? Framework + process
.
(results from a focus group with policy makers May 2012)
 Joint formulation of policy relevant questions:
• Comprehensive
• Answerable by science
 Solutions that can be implemented on the ground
• Knowledge on impacts of policy,
• knowledge on policy design
 Consolidated version from science
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Governance: where are decisions taken?
 Ostrom (2005) rule framework: no way to derive ideal
governance deductively: contextualized trial and error
 Facilitate and speed up this „learning by doing“
 Providing a means for bringing information together,
furthering exchange and analysis
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A flexible methodological approach able to
include
 Answers to different (types) of questions
 impact assessment
 local demand (and its global impact)
 Information on potential provision of ESS (jobs, health…)
 Status of ecosystems, (economic, social, cultural system)
 Local data, where available
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Need for collective action to achieve these targets?
Resolve dichotomy between principles of
universality and subsidiarity?
Two examples that can help bridge the gap:
 Translation of local problem fields to global
sustainability → integrative sustainability concept
 Collecting information, furthering exchange → eye on
earth
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Integrative sustainability concept from the
Helmholtz Association (Kopfmüller et al., 2001)
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Integrative Concept of Sustainable Development
General sustainability goals
Securing human existence
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Maintaining society´s productive
potential
Dr. Volker Stelzer ITAS, KIT
Preserving society´s options for
development and action
Integrative Concept of Sustainable Development
General sustainability goals
Securing human existence
Maintaining society´s productive
potential
Preserving society´s options for
development and action
Substantial rules
Protection of human health
Sustainable use of renewable
resources
Equal access of all people to
information, education and
occupation
Ensuring the satisfaction of basic
needs
Sustainable use of non-renewable
resources
Participation in societal decisionmaking processes
Autonomous subsistence based
on income from own work
Sustainable use of the environment as a sink
Conservation of cultural heritage
and cultural diversity
Just distribution of chances for
using natural resources
Avoiding technical risks with
potentially catastrophic impacts
Conservation of the cultural
function of nature
Reduction of extreme income or
wealth inequalities
Sustainable development of manmade, human, knowledge capital
Conservation of “social resources”
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Dr. Volker Stelzer
Integrative Concept of Sustainable Development
General sustainability goals
Securing human existence
Maintaining society´s productive
potential
Preserving society´s options for
development and action
Substantial rules
Protection of human health
Sustainable use of renewable
resources
Equal access of all people to
information, education and
occupation
Ensuring the satisfaction of basic
needs
Sustainable use of non-renewable
resources
Participation in societal decisionmaking processes
Autonomous subsistence based
on income from own work
Sustainable use of the environment as a sink
Conservation of cultural heritage
and cultural diversity
Just distribution of chances for
using natural resources
Avoiding technical risks with
potentially catastrophic impacts
Conservation of the cultural
function of nature
Reduction of extreme income or
wealth inequalities
Sustainable development of manmade, human, knowledge capital
Conservation of “social resources”
Instrumental rules
- Internalisation of environmental and social external costs
- Adequate discounting
- Limitation of public indebtedness
- Fair international economic framework conditions
- International co-operation
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Dr. Volker Stelzer ITAS KIT
- Society´s ability to respond
- Ability to reflexivity
- Ability to self-management
- Ability to self-organisation
- Balance of power between societal actors
An Integrative Concept of Sustainability
(“Helmholtz-Konzept”: Kopfmüller et al., 2001 and Hartmuth et al., 2008)
1.
human
existence
1.1Securing
Protection
of human
health
….
2. Maintaining society’s productive
Sustainable use of nonSustainability Goals 2.2
potential
renewable resources
3.
Criteria/Indicators:
…Preserving society’s options for
development and action
Conservation
of the
-3.4
Number
of cars per
daycultural
function of nature
Connection
-…Chemical groundwater quality
-- Unemployment
rate in former
Lack of green spaces
…
industrial areas
Local Problem Areas - Contaminated groundwater
- High unemployment
-…
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SEITE 15
Sustainability Problems of Megacities (ex.) (I)
SD rule: Protection of human health
Intestinal infectious diseases
Respiratory diseases
High under-5-years-mortality rate
Low life expectancy
High human losses due to natural disasters
Early mortality
High concentration of persistent organic pollutants (POP) in human tissue
High percentage of population being exposed to a noise level of more than 65 dB(A)
by day and 55 dB(A) by night
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Dr. Volker Stelzer ITAS KIT
Sustainability Problems of Megacities (ex.) (II)
SD rule: Satisfaction of basic needs
Undernourished people
Population living below 2 $ per day
Homeless people
School leavers without graduation
Adult illiteracy
Population without access to primary health care facilities
SD rule: Possibility of autonomous subsistence
Long-term unemployment
Precarious employments
Jobs within the informal sector
Lack of credits for the low-income sector
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Dr. Volker Stelzer ITAS KIT
Sustainability Problems of Megacities (ex.) (III)
SD rule: Sustainable use of non-renewable resources
Low intensity of Material Use
High imports of non-renewable resources
Low carbon economic efficiency
SD rule: Sustainable use of the environment as a sink
CO2 emission
Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration
NOx emissions
VOC emissions
SO2 emissions
Consumption of ozone depleting substances
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Dr. Volker Stelzer ITAS, KIT
European Environmental Agency:
Eye on Earth
 Allows open access to broad range of data,
 Allows users to feed in data
 Allows analysis and including model results
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Questions cont.
4. Reconcile data on global environmental indicators
with local, national and regional environmental
indicators? Soc. econ.?
5. Information needs from natural and socio-economic
systems to ensure comparable concrete, quantifiable
and time bound goals, targets and indicators?
→ Set up systems able to capture relevant data,
protocols, explanations, standardization, hierarchical
systems (aggregate and differentiate)
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Conclusions
 No one size fits all
 Solutions at different levels but take into account
interconnectedness (vertical and horizontal)
 Awareness raising is not enoúgh – solution-oriented
implementable knowledge is needed
 Provide procedural assistance rather than concrete
solutions for all situations
 Science organisation: Network of networks
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Thank you for your
attention!
[email protected]
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Needs for a MAES framework
 Needs to disentangle „decisions“ and what influences them
• Regulation, incentives, institutions -> entry points
 How to influence decisions by better information on
ecosystems and their services
• Needs to frame evaluation of services, currently we „value“ only
certain services explicitly
• Needs to make benefits (in terms of HWB) explicit
• Where is what information needed at what level of detail?
Guidance on the choice of information

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Needs to include biodiversity explicitly
An Integrative Concept of Sustainability
(“Helmholtz-Konzept”: Kopfmüller et al., 2001)
Sustainability Rules
Connection
Local Problem Areas
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SEITE 26
Goals, targets and indicators to reflect interconnections? Conceptual framework to reflect
system dynamics + identify data required?
 No one size fits all
 Solutions at different levels but take into account
interconnectedness (vertical and horizontal)
 Awareness raising is not enoúgh – solution-oriented
implementable knowledge is needed
 Provide procedural assistance rather than concrete
solutions for all situations
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Sustainability Problems of Megacities (ex.) (IV)
SD rule: Development of human and knowledge capital
Low percentage of population with high school diploma or university
degree
Low percentage of people speaking at least one foreign language
Not suficiant teacher / professors
Low R & D expenditure
SD rule: Participation in societal decision-making processes
Low voter turnout in municipal, provincial and federal/national elections
No direct election of members of the regional government
Few planning processes including institutionalized citizens participation
Low rate of unionization
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Dr. Volker Stelzer ITAS, KIT
Sustainability Problems of Megacities (ex.) (V)
SD rule: Social coherence of society
Crime
Inefectivity of public safety services
Homicides
Lack of people active in local organisations and NGOs
Low expenditure for child and youth work
SD rule: Limitation of public indebtedness
High budget deficit quota
High dept level
SD rule: Balance of power between societal actors
High market-share concentration in important economic branches
Few companies with a workers´ council
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Dr. Volker Stelzer ITAS KIT
TEEB framework: ecosystem processes –
functions – services – benefits – values
Institutions & human
Judgments determining
(the use of) services
Management/
Restoration
Ecosystems & Biodiversity
Feedback between
value perception
and use of ecosystem services
Human wellbeing
Biophysical
Structure
or process
(eg. vegetation
cover or Net
Primary
Productivity
(socio-cultural context)
Function*
(eg. slow
water
passage,
biomass)
Service
(eg. floodprotection,
products
1)
Benefit(s)
(contribution
to health,
safety, etc)
(econ) Value
(eg. WTP for
protection
or products)
*) subset of biophysical structure or
process providing the service
Adapted from Haines-Young & Potschin, 2009
and Maltby (ed.), 2009
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E.g. Target 2 – Restoring at least 15% of degraded ecosystems
Information needs
on status BES
EU
Define Target (Baseline, trends,
gaps, uncertainties…)
List of current knowledge at all
scales on target 2
MS
Local
Indicators
Information on
management
practices and how
they affect BES
Information on
how policies
affect actions and
BES
Identify actions
Scenarios, models
Identify actors at all scales and
their actions/roles on target 2
EU
MS
Local
EU
Identify policies
Identify relevant policies and
tradeoffs influencing target 2
MS
Local
Conditionality
Information on
how policies
actually affect
actins and how
these affect BES
EU
Monitoring
Does the policy affect the actions
MS
Local
How do BES affect other management or policy goals? (can be illustrated at different
points of the cascade, depending on policy and target).
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Processes
Functions
Services
Benefits
Values
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Processes
Processes
Functions
Functions
Services
Services
Benefits
Benefits
Values
Values
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Goals from
Policy
sectors
Processes
Processes
Managemen
t
Policy
sectors
Functions
Awareness
Services
Functions
Managemen
t
Policy
sectors
Services
Benefits
Awareness
t
Policy
sectors
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Benefits
Values
Values
Types of questions asked:
 Science: what is the current state of biodiversity? how
does biodiversity function? why is it important? How
are biodiversity and ecosystem services linked?
 Policy: how is biodiversity/are ecosystem services
affected by current policy? What needs to be changed
in the management on the ground, so that biodiversity
suffers less harm? How can this be implemented via
policy? How much biodiversity do we need? What
does it cost to preserve (a certain amount of)
biodiversity?
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Challenges remain
 Understanding for political processes and societal needs
still underdeveloped among scientists
 Understanding for scientific work flow still underdeveloped
among knowledge ‚users‘
 Involvement of other relevant players needed (e.g.
economic sector)
 Bridging activities are needed and require resources and
manpower
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2. Zur (Vor-)Geschichte: Wie kamen wir
zum IPBES?
2005
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2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012