A Heuristic Threshold Policy for Fault Detection in rejection since its publication in 1763, so that Bayes’ mode of reasoning, which was finally buried on so uni-variate Statistical Quality Control many occasions, has recently risen again with Environments astonishing vigor [1]. 1, * Mohammad Saber Fallah Nezhad This research focuses on sequential methods based 1 Industrial Engineering Department, on stochastic dynamic programming techniques for Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. process quality control. For the statistics literature, SDP was studied mostly from Markov's decision process perspective. Traditional SPC methods provide a group of statistical tests for a general hypothesis, in which the mean value for the quality characteristic of a process, or a process mean, for Abstract In this research, the decision on belief (DOB) short, is consistent with its target level. A variety of approach was employed to analyze and classify the graphical tools have been developed for monitoring a states of uni-variate quality control systems. The process mean by Shewhart charts [2], CUSUM charts concept of DOB and its application in decision [3], and EWMA charts [4]. making problems were introduced, and then a The process mean is desired to be maintained at its methodology for modeling a statistical quality target level consistently; however, random process control problem by DOB approach was discussed. errors, or random “shocks”, can shift the process For this iterative approach, the belief for a system mean to an unknown level. A control chart is being out-of-control was updated by taking new required to detect this shift as soon as possible. At observations on a given quality characteristic. This the same time, it should not signal too many false can be performed by using Bayesian rule and prior alarms when the process mean is on the target. These beliefs. If the beliefs are more than a specific criteria are usually defined in terms of the Average threshold, then the system will be classified as an Run Length of the control chart for the in-control out-of-control condition. Finally, a numerical operation and out-of-control operation of the process, example and simulation study were provided for i.e., in-control ARL and out-of-control ARL, evaluating the performance of the proposed method. respectively [5]. For the quality control of a manufacturing process, Keywords: Statistical Quality Control, Bayesian one essential task is to detect any possible abnormal Rule, Decision on Belief. change in the process mean and remove it. However, a control chart alone does not explicitly provide a process adjustment scheme even when the process mean is deemed to be off-target. Consider a manufacturing process, in which detecting off-target state is very important and a control charting method is not sufficient. We present a stochastic dynamic programming approach for theses types of processes. This approach, named Decision on Belief (DOB), was firstly presented by Eshragh and Modarres [6]. They applied sequential analysis and stochastic dynamic programming to find the best underlying * Corresponding Author Email: probability distribution for the observed data, also [email protected] Eshragh and Niaki applied the DOB concept as a Phone: +989122140128 / Fax: +983518210699 decision-making tool in Response Surface methodology [7 & 8]. Fallahnezhad and Niaki [9] applied the concept in the problem for determining the best binomial distribution. Also they applied this approach to acceptance sampling plans and production systems [10, 11]. Sequential analysis has been used in control charts by some authors [12, 13]. Wu et al proposed a 1. Introduction scenario for continuously improving the X & S The value of Bayes’ theorem, as a basis for statistical control charts during charts usages. It uses the inference, has swung between acceptance and information collected from the out-of-control cases in a manufacturing process to update charting parameters [12]. Bayesian inference is one of the best tools in Sequential Analysis. Some researchers have applied Bayesian analysis in Quality control [14, 15]. Chun and Rinks [14] assumed that the proportion defective is a random variable that follows a Beta distribution and regarding Bayesian inference, they derived Bayes producer's and consumer's risks. Fallahnezhad and Niaki [16] proposed a new monitoring design for uni-variate statistical quality control charts based on an updating method. Marcellus [17] proposed a Bayesian statistical process control and compared it with CUSUM charts. He showed the advantage for turning from Shewhart chart or CUSUM chart into Bayesian monitoring in situations where the required information about the process structure is obtained. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: DOB modeling for SPC is presented in Section 2. Section 3 provides the belief and approach of its improvement. A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach is discussed in section 4. The numerical demonstration on the proposed methodology application is provided in section 5. Section 6 introduces a simulation experiment and Section 7 provides a conclusion. making process exits. First, the decision space can be divided into two candidates; an in-control or out-ofcontrol production process. Second, the problem solution is one of the candidates for either an incontrol or out-of-control process. Finally, a belief is assigned to each candidate so that the belief shows the probability for the process being in or out-ofcontrol condition. Based upon the belief updated for any iteration, we may decide if the process is in outof-control condition. 3. Learning: the beliefs and approach for its improvement For simplicity, only one single observation on the quality characteristic of interest in any iteration for data gathering process was assumed. At iteration k for data gathering process, Ok ( x1 , x2 ,..., xk ) was defined as the observation vector where x1 , x2 ,..., xk resemble observations for previous iterations 1, 2, …, k. The decision-making process after any iteration is in a stochastic space such that we can never say surely that the production process is in out-of-control state. After taking a new observation, xk , the probability of being in an out-ofcontrol state is defined as B( xk , Ok 1 ) Pr{Out of control xk , Ok 1} . At this iteration, we want to improve the belief of being in out-of-control state based on observation 2. DOB modeling for SPC problems In a uni-variate quality control environment, the vector Ok 1 and new observation xk . If we define collected observations for a quality characteristic of a B(O ) B( x , O ) k 1 k 1 k 2 as the prior belief of an outproduct contain so much information about production process that if we limit ourselves to apply of-control state, in order to update the posterior a control charting method, we will not be using most belief B( xk , Ok 1 ) , since we may assume that the of them. In fact, the main aim of a control charting observations are taken independently in any iteration, method is to detect undesired variation quickly then we will have occurred in the process. However, applying both Pr{x Out of control, O } Pr{x Out of control} k k 1 k sequential analysis concept and Bayesian rule, at any iteration in which some observations on the quality characteristic are available, based upon the With this feature, using Bayesian rule the updated observations at hand we may calculate the belief for belief is: the process being out-of-control. Regarding these B (x k ,O k 1 ) Pr{Out of control x k ,O k 1} beliefs and a stopping rule, we may find and specify Pr{Out of control , x k O k 1} a decision interval on these beliefs and when the Pr{x k O k 1} updated belief in any iteration is not within this interval, an out-of-control signal is observed. The Pr{Out of control O k 1}Pr{x k Out of control ,O k 1} Pr{x k O k 1} control interval is determined based on the value for type-one error. (1) In these problems, first, all probable solution spaces As candidates are independent, we can write will be divided into several candidates (the solution equation (1) as is one of the candidates), then a belief will be assigned to each candidate considering our experiences and finally, the beliefs are updated and the optimal decision is selected based on the current situation. In a SPC problem, a similar decision- 2 B (x k ,O k 1 ) Thus B (O k ) is determined by the following equation, B (O k 1 ) 1 x k B (O k ) B (O k 1 ) 1 x k 0.5(1 B (O k 1 )) Pr{Out of control O k 1}Pr{x k Out of control } Pr{Out of control O k 1}Pr{x k Out of control } Pr{In control O k 1}Pr{x k In control } B (O k 1 ) Pr{x k Out of control } B (O k 1 ) Pr{x k Out of control } (1 B (O k 1 )) Pr{x k In control } (2) Assuming the quality characteristic of interest follows a normal distribution with mean and (6) 4. A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach variance 2 , we use equation (2) to calculate both We present a decision making approach in terms of beliefs for occurring positive or negative shifts in the Stochastic Dynamic Programming approach. process mean . Presented approach is like an optimal stopping problem. Suppose n stages for decision making is remained Positive shifts in the process mean The values of B (Ok ) , showing the probability of and two decisions are available. 1. A positive shift is occurred in the process mean occurring a positive shift in the process mean, will be 2. No positive shift is occurred in the process mean calculated applying equation (2) Decision making framework is as follows: recursively. Pr{x k In control } is defined by the 1. Gather a new observation. 2. Calculate the posterior Beliefs in terms of prior following equation, Beliefs. Pr{x k In control } 0.5 3. Order the current Beliefs as an ascending form For 0 , the probability that the observations in and choose the maximum. iteration k is out-of-control, 4. Determine the value of the least acceptable Pr{xk Out of control } , is calculated using belief ( d n is the least acceptable belief for equation (3). detecting the positive shift and d n is the least Pr{x k Out of control } x k acceptable belief for detecting the negative shift) (3) 5. If the maximum Belief in step 3 was more than where (.) is the cumulative probability distribution the least acceptable belief, d n , select the belief function for the normal distribution with mean candidate with maximum value as a solution else go and variance 2 . Above probabilities are not exact to step 1. probabilities and they are a kind of belief function to In terms of above algorithm, the belief with ascertain good properties for B (Ok ) thus B (Ok ) maximum value is chosen and if this belief was more than a control threshold like d n , the candidate is determined by the following equation, B (O k ) B (O k 1 ) x k of that Belief will be selected as optimal candidate else the sampling process is continued. The objective of this model is to determine the optimal values of d n . The result of this process is the optimal B (O k 1 ) x k 0.5(1 B (O k 1 )) (4) Negative shifts in the process mean The values of B (Ok ) , showing the probability of negative shift in the process mean, will also be calculated using equation (2) recursively. In this case, Pr{x k In control } is defined by the strategy with n decision making stages that maximize the probability of correct selection. Suppose new observation x k is gathered. (k is the number of gathered observations so far). V n , d n is defined as the probability of correct following equation, selection when n decision making stages are remained and we follow d n strategy explained Pr{x k In control } 0.5 Pr{xk Out of control} , is calculated using above also V ( n ) denotes the maximum value of V n , d n thus, equation (5). Pr{x k Out of control } 1 x k V (n ) Max V n ,d n (5) d (n ) 3 CS is defined as the event of correct selection. S1 is B (O k ) Pr B (O k ) d n defined as selecting the out-of-control condition (positive shift) as an optimal solution and S2 is (1 B (O k )) Pr 1 B (O k ) d n defined as selecting the in-control condition as an Pr{CS NS } optimal decision and NS is defined as not selecting V n max 0.5d n 1 any candidate in this stage. 1 Pr B (O k ) d n Hence, using the total probability law, it is concluded that: Pr 1 B (O k ) d V n , d n Ma x{Pr{CS }} Pr{CS S 1}Pr{S 1} n B (O ) Pr B (O ) d n k k max 1 B (O k ) Pr 1 B (O k ) d n 0.5d n 1 1 Pr B (O k ) d n V (n 1) Pr 1 B (O k ) d n Pr{CS S 2 }Pr{S 2 } Pr{CS NS }Pr{NS } (7) Pr{CS S 1} denotes the probability of correct selection when candidate S1 is selected as the optimal candidate and this probability equals to its belief, B (Ok ) , and with the same discussion, it is concluded that Pr{CS S 2 } =1- B (Ok ) (8) 1. Pr{S1} is the probability of selecting out In terms of above equation, V n , d n is defined of control candidate ( positive shift) as the solution as follows: thus following the decision making strategy, we should have B (Ok ) max( B (Ok ),1 B (Ok )) and B (Ok ) d n that is equivalent to following, Pr{S1} = Pr B (O k ) d n , d n 0.5,1 With the same reasoning, it is concluded that, Pr{S 2 } = Pr 1 B (O k ) d n , d 2. B (O ) Pr B (O ) d n k k V n , d n 1 B (O k ) Pr (1 B (O k )) d n 1 Pr B (O k ) d n V n 1 Pr 1 B (O k ) d n (9) n 0.5,1 Pr{CS NS } denotes the probability of correct selection when none of candidates has been selected and it means that the maximum value of the beliefs is less than d n and the process of decision making continues to latter stage. As a result, in terms of Dynamic Programming Approach, the probability of this event equals to maximum of probability of correct selection in latter stage(n-1), V (n 1) , but since taking observations has cost, then the value of this probability in current time is less than actual value of it and by using the discounting factor , it equals V (n 1) 3. Since the entire solution space is partitioned, it is concluded that Pr{NS} 1 (Pr{S1} Pr{S2}) By the above preliminaries, the function V ( n ) is determined as follows: 4 Calculation method forV n , d n : First the value of Pr B (O k ) d n will be B ( gr ,O k ) and B (sm ,O k ) are defined as follows: determined: Pr B (O k ) d n B ( gr ,O k ) max B (O k ),1 B (O k ) x k B O k 1 B (sm ,O k ) min B (O k ),1 B (O k ) Pr d n x k B O k 1 1 B O k 1 0.5 Now equation (9) is rewritten as follows: V n ,d n Pr x h d n 0.5 1 0.5h d n B ( gr ,O ) V n 1 Pr B ( gr ,O ) d n B (sm ,O ) V n 1 Pr B (sm ,O ) d n V n 1 k k Since x k k thus it follows a uniform Distribution function in interval [0, 1], thus the above equality is concluded. With the same reasoning, it is concluded that: k (12) is a cumulative distribution function Pr 1 B (O k ) d n k Pr 1 d n B (O k ) (10) There are three conditions: 1. B ( gr ,O k ) V (n 1) : 0.5h 1 d n In this condition, both B ( gr ,O k ) V (n 1) and B (sm ,O k ) V (n 1) (13) Now equation (8) can be written as follows: are negative, thus to maximizeV n , d n , it is concluded that V (n ) B O k 1 0.5h d n don’t select any candidate in this condition and sampling process continues. max 1 B O k 0.5h 1 d n 2. B (sm ,O k ) V (n 1) : 0.5d n 1 1 0.5 1 h d n In this condition, both B ( gr ,O k ) V (n 1) and V n 1 B (sm ,O k ) V (n 1) are positive, thus to 0.5h 1 d n maximize V n , d n , it is concluded that d n 1 and since B ( gr ,Ok ) d n 1 we d n 0.5 and since B ( gr ,Ok ) d n 0.5 , (14) we select the belief candidate B ( gr ,O k ) as the And equation (10) can be written as follows: solution. 3. B (sm ,O k ) V (n 1) B ( gr ,O k ) : V n , d n B O k V n 1 1 h d n 0.5 In this condition, one of the probabilities in equation (10) has positive coefficient and one has negative 1 B O k V n 1 0.5h 1 d n V n 1 coefficient, to maximize V n , d n , h d n (15) d n 1 B (O k 1 ) 1 d n B (O k 1 ) optimality methods will be applied. Definition: h d n is defined as follows: Since V * V n 0.5Max d n 1 n , d n thus it is sufficient to maximize the real value function V n , d n , therefore; we should find the function value in points where the first order deviation equals zero, (11) 5 V n , d n d n no positive shift is occurred in the process mean and decision making stops. 0 B O V n 1 k 1 B O V n 1 1 d n 6. If Max B O k ,1 B O k 2 then data is not sufficient for detecting the positive shift and go to stage 2. 7. If Min B O k ,1 B O k V n 1 then d n 2 k 1 d n B O k V n 1 1 B O V n 1 V n 1 , if Max B O k ,1 B O k B O k it is concluded that a negative shift is occurred the process mean and decision making stops and if 1 Max B O k ,1 B O k k (16) 1 B O k , then no negative shift is occurred in the process mean and The optimal threshold d n is determined by the decision making stops. 8. If Max B O k ,1 B O k V n 1 , above equation. Since the optimal value of d n should be in the interval [0.5, 1] thus it is concluded then data is not sufficient for detecting the negative shift and go to stage 2. that the optimal value of d n will be determined O k ,1 B O k , V n 1 Min B O k ,1 B O k then determine the value for d n (least acceptable as follows: 9. If d n 1 Max , 0.5 B O k V n 1 1 1 B O k V n 1 Max B belief for detecting the positive shift) by the following equation: 1 d n Max , 0.5 (17) B O k V n 1 1 The above method is presented for detecting the 1 B O k V n 1 positive shifts for the process mean and can be (18) adapted for detecting the negative shifts with the same reasoning. The general decision making algorithm is 10. If summarized as follows: Max B O k ,1 B O k V n 1 , 1. Set k=0 and the initial Min B O ,1 B O k k beliefs B O0 0.5, B O0 0.5 . 2. Gather an observation and then determine the value for d n (least set k k 1, n n 1 . acceptable belief for detecting the negative shift) by 3. If n 0 , then no shift is occurred in the process the following equation: mean and decision making stops. 4. Update the values for the beliefs B Ok , B Ok by equation (2). 5. If Min B O k ,1 B O k if V n 1 , then d n Max Max B O k ,1 B O k B O k , it is concluded that a positive shift is occurred in the process mean and decision making stops, also if Max B O k ,1 B O k 1 B O k , 1 B O V n 1 k 1 B O V n 1 k , 0.5 1 (19) then 11. If B O d n , then a positive shift is k occurred 6 and decision making stops, and if 1 B O k d n , then no positive shift is B (O 2 ) 0.67 occurred and decision making stops, else go to stage B (O ) 0.33 2 2. Step 3: Order the beliefs. 12. If B Ok d n , then a negative shift is B ( gr ,O ) B (O ) 1 B (O ) B (sm ,O ) 2 2 2 2 occurred and decision making stops, and If B ( gr ,O 2 ) 1 B (O 2 ) B (O 2 ) B (sm ,O 2 ) 1 B Ok d n , then no negative shift is occurred and decision making stops, else go to stage Step 4: 2. The approximate value of V n 1 based on the Since 14 discount factor in the stochastic dynamic B ( gr ,O 2 ) V (0) 0.620 B (sm ,O 2 ) and programming approach is nV 0 . B ( gr ,O 2 ) 14V (0) 0.620 B (sm ,O 2 ) , thus we are in the condition 3 of decision making process, hence first, the values of d 14 and 5. Numerical example A numerical example is provided to detect the positive and negative shift of mean for the process. The assumption for a quality characteristic in a process follows the standard normal distribution and a shift 1 for the process mean. It was assumed that sampling had a cost. Only 15 observations could be sampled (n=15), also the values of 0.97 and V (0) 0.95 were selected as the parameter values. The initial value for the out-of-control or in-control beliefs is equal to 0.5. d 14 are determined by equation (16): d (14) 1 14 B O 2 V (0) 1 1 B O 2 14V (0) max 0.7 1 , 0.5 0.67 0.62 1 B (O 0 ) 0.5, B (O 0 ) 0.5 0.33 0.62 To show the process of decision making on Beliefs, random numbers of normal distribution with d (14) parameters 0, 1, 1 were generated. 1 1. First observation: max 0.29, 0.5 0.5 14 Step 1: Number x 1 0.25 generation. B O 2 V (0) 1 14 Step 2: Posterior belief calculation. 1 B O V (0) 2 B (O1 ) 0.59 B (O1 ) 0.41 Step 5: Step 3: Order the belief. Since B ( gr ,O 1 ) B (O1 ) 1 B (O1 ) B (sm ,O 1 ) B ( gr ,O 2 ) B (O 2 ) 0.67 d 14 0.7 and B ( gr ,O 1 ) 1 B (O1 ) B (O1 ) B (sm ,O 1 ) Step 4: Since B ( gr ,O 1 ), B ( gr ,O 1 ) are B ( gr ,O 2 ) d 14 0.5 , then it is concluded less that no negative shift is occurred in the process mean than 15V (0) 0.6 , it is in the condition 1 of but additional observations are needed for decision making about the positive shifts. decision making method. Hence, d 15 1 . 2. Take the third observation: Step 5: Since B ( gr ,O 1 ), B ( gr ,O 1 ) are less Step 1: x 0.26 3 than d 15 1 , then there is not any selection. Step 2: Posterior beliefs calculation. Therefore, another observation will be selected. B (O 3 ) 0.75 1. Second observation: Step 3: the beliefs are ordered. Step 1: x 2 0.24 B ( gr ,O 3 ) B (O 3 ) 1 B (O 3 ) B (sm ,O 3 ) Step 2: Posterior beliefs calculation. 7 Step 4: second type error and first type error. Also as V (0) decreases, the probability of first type error increases Since but the probability of second type error decreases in B ( gr ,O 3 ) 13V (0) 0.639 B (sm ,O 3 ) , small value of shifts and increases in large values of thus we are in the condition 3 of decision making shifts therefore the optimal value of V (0) should be process, hence first, the value of d 13 is selected based on out of control value of mean that should be detected. determined by equation (16): d 13 1 13 B O 3 V (0) 1 1 B O 3 13V (0) Max 0.64 1 , 0.5 0.75 0.639 1 0.25 0.639 Step 5: Since B ( gr ,O 3 ) B (O 3 ) 0.75 d (13) 0.64 , thus it is concluded that a positive shift is occurred in the process mean. 6. Simulation Experiment For the simulation methodology, the standard normal observations were generated. Then, the proposed procedure was implemented for the simulated gathered data in different iterations. Table 1 shows the estimated probabilities for detecting a positive shift for the proposed methodology. Five different parameter sets with 10,000 independent replications of the process were selected. Table (1): The Probabilities of detecting a positive shift in simulation experiments Table (1) shows that the overall values of probabilities are favorably large. Further, as the magnitudes of the mean shifts increase, the probabilities become larger. Also, when the value of increases, the probability of first type error, denoting the probability of detecting a positive shift while no shift is occurred in the process mean, decreases and the probability of second type error decreases in most of the cases . Also as the number of decision making stage (n) decreases, the probability of first type error decreases but the probability of second type error increases simultaneously therefore the optimal value of n should be selected based on the tradeoff between 8 Table (2): The ARL values in simulation experiments Table (2) shows that the overall values of ARL are favorably small. Further, as the magnitudes of the mean shifts increase, the ARL values become smaller. Also, when the value of increases, both values of ARL0 and ARL1 increases. Also as the number of decision making stage (n) decreases, both values of ARL0 and ARL1 decreases. Also as V (0) decreases, both values of ARL0 and ARL1 decreases. Therefore it is concluded that optimal parameter should be selected based on the required application and performance. 6. Conclusions In this paper, the concept of decision on belief (DOB) approach is employed to analyze and classify the states of uni-variate quality control systems. In this iterative approach, we tried to update the beliefs of a system being out-of-control by taking new observations on the given quality characteristic. Decision making is based on comparing the values of beliefs with a control threshold. The value for control threshold is determined by solving a stochastic dynamic programming problem. The optimal values of control thresholds are determined in order to maximize the probability of selecting correct design. A numerical example is presented to illustrate how the proposed procedure can be applied to design a process control method. Also, in simulation experiment, the performance of proposed method for detecting the positive shifts of the process mean is evaluated and it denotes that the proposed method performance for detecting the shifts of the process mean is satisfactory. Also, small values of ARL in the proposed method indicate an advantage for proposed method. 9 References 1. Box, G.E.P., G.D. 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