NEWSLETTER #36 - 2006-07
Bucking long trend, games are faster this season
By Ken Pomeroy, Special to ESPN Insider
If you have been able to see only a few games this
season, you probably haven't noticed it, but games
are being played at a faster pace than last season -and in some cases, much faster.
This is news because one of the constants over the
past decade has been the gradual deceleration of
college basketball. Last season, each team
averaged 67.0 possessions per 40 minutes
(overtime is prorated), which was down from a pace
of 67.3 in 2004-05. In fact, based on the data the
NCAA has archived, last season was almost surely
the slowest-paced season in the history of the
modern game.
The last time we had a tempo crisis was in the early
'80s, and the response was to implement a shot
clock. Back then, the NCAA didn't keep all the stats
we need to calculate tempo, but we can get a
decent estimate with what is available. The slowest
pre-shot clock season was 1981-82, when teams
averaged around 71 possessions a game. For
comparison, a team playing at that pace last season
would have been one of the 50 fastest teams in the
country.
The shot clock had its intended effect -- eliminating
stalling tactics -- but also increased tempo in
general. The upward trend peaked out, though,
around 1990, when teams averaged about 76
possessions per game. (Only two teams averaged
more than that last season.) Pace of play got
another slight boost in the 1993-94 season, when
the shot clock was reduced from 45 to 35 seconds,
but since then, there has been a steady decline.
Each of the last eight seasons has been slower than
any of the pre-shot clock years we have data for.
The table to the right shows the downward trend.
There is some hope for a change this season,
though. So far, games are running at a pace of 69.9
Possessions per team per game
SEASON
PACE
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
74.1
73.1
71.8
70.6
71.2
70.5
70.5
69.9
69.8
68.8
67.7
67.2
67.0
69.9
possessions per team per 40 minutes. The season's
first night featured a game in which Maryland and
Hampton tangled in a 96-possession track meet.
Five days later, Georgia Southern and UC Davis
upped the ante with a regulation game featuring 101
possessions per team -- the first game between
Division I teams played at a triple-digit pace since at
least 2003-04, the first season for which we have
comprehensive possession stats.
It's been more than just an isolated game here and
there, though. So far, there have been 44 games
with a pace of at least 80 possessions per 40
minutes, a total that exceeds those of any of the
previous three seasons at the same point (30 last
season, 24 in 2004-05 and 41 in 2003-04).
So are we headed for a renaissance of fast-paced
basketball? Major changes don't happen overnight -or even in one season -- but there appear to be a
few positives for a future of faster hoops.
Xavier University - Men's Basketball - 3800 Victory Parkway - Cintas Center - Cincinnati, OH 45207 - (513) 745-3417 - (887) WE ARE XU
NEWSLETTER #36 - 2006-07
Bucking long trend, games are faster this season
CONTINUED
First off, more teams are willing to play at a pace
well above normal by today's standards. Pepperdine
is sporting a speedy attack with tip-to-buzzer
pressing under first-year head coach Vance
Walberg. John Calipari, who had fairly normal-paced
teams in recent years, famously adopted parts of the
Walberg offense last season and continues to
employ it at Memphis. At VMI, second-year coach
Duggar Baucom is employing a helter-skelter
system similar to the one that landed Grinnell a date
on ESPN2 two seasons ago. In three games against
D-I competition, VMI and its opponents have
averaged nearly 90 possessions -- and that includes
a game against notorious slowpoke Princeton. The
Keydets' two games against non-Division I foes
have averaged an outrageous 114 possessions per
team per game.
So, anecdotally, there's some new thinking that
faster is better. However, with 337 teams out there,
we need a lot of anecdotes to make a significant
change, and for every Walberg or Baucom who
enters the coaching ranks, there's a Chris Mooney
at Richmond or John Thompson III at Georgetown
introducing the Princeton system to new places.
What about officiating? For the umpteenth
consecutive season, "rough play" is a point of
emphasis for the officials. And yes, whistles have
been more frequent this season, but only
incrementally so. There has been about one extra
foul for every 300 possessions of basketball
compared to the last three seasons. While some
games have featured a stricter threshold for handchecking that might help offensive players break
down the defense faster, that standard doesn't
appear to have been applied consistently across the
roughly 500 games that have been played thus far,
so we can't expect any impact from that.
more half-court possessions. At this time last
season, 31.9 percent of field-goal attempts had
come from beyond the arc. By the end of the
season, that figure had reached a record 33.2
percent -- and during that same time frame, pace
slowed from 69.3 possessions per game to 67.0.
That trend has been the same in each of the past
three seasons.
Through Sunday's games this season, a whopping
34.5 percent of attempts this season were 3s. It's
hard to imagine that figure going any higher, but if
history is any indication, it will, and pace will drop
along with it. It may end up being a marginally faster
season in 2006-07, but the difference probably will
be less than one possession per game.
In conclusion, it's possible we are on the way back to
the era of shorter shorts, when a final score in the
60s was considered low scoring and a game in the
50s was due to hideous offense. If we want fastpaced action, at least VMI and Pepperdine promise
us more options this season. On balance, though,
college basketball will remain a game largely played
in half-court sets dependent on long-range jump
shots against conservative defenses. It's taken 15
years to (d)evolve to this point; it probably will take
as long to get out of it.
Another indicator that tempo is not inexorably on the
rise is the annual increase in 3-point attempts, a
result of opponent familiarity, better defense and
Xavier University - Men's Basketball - 3800 Victory Parkway - Cintas Center - Cincinnati, OH 45207 - (513) 745-3417 - (887) WE ARE XU
PLAY OF THE WEEK - ZONE OFFENSE
# BREAK SET - HANDOFF INTO PAIRS
5
5
2
3
2
3
4
4
1
1
A
B
# Break Alignment. 1 passes to 2.
1 sprints behind 2 and receives a
handoff. 3 and 4 interchange.
4
3
5
2
1
C
5 screens in the bottom of the
zone for 4. 3 screens in the
opposite guard for 2. 1 sees both 4
and 2 cutting. 3 and 5 can "slip".
Xavier University - Men's Basketball - 3800 Victory Parkway - Cintas Center - Cincinnati, OH 45207 - (513) 745-3417 - (887) WE ARE XU
PLAY OF THE WEEK - ZONE OFFENSE
# BREAK SET - REVERSE
5
5
2
3
3
1
1
4
4
2
A
B
# Break Alignment. 1 dribbles at 2.
2 replaces 1. 1 passes to 2.
4 screens the top of the zone for 3.
3 uses the screen. 4 has a
5
possible "slip".
1
4
5
1
4
3
3
2
C
2 passes to 3. 4 then screens
along the baseline for 1. 5 flare
screens in for 2.
2
D
3 has four options: 1 and 2 cutting
off of their screens and 5 and 4
"slipping" after screening.
Xavier University - Men's Basketball - 3800 Victory Parkway - Cintas Center - Cincinnati, OH 45207 - (513) 745-3417 - (887) WE ARE XU
PLAY OF THE WEEK - ZONE OFFENSE
# BREAK SET - DIRECT TO 4
2
3
5
4
2
5
4
1
3
1
A
B
Stacks Alignment. 1 dribbles right.
3 replaces 1.
1 passes to 3. On the catch by 3, 2
sprints off of the 5, 4 stack. 3 is
watching 2 as 2 cuts to the left wing.
As 2 runs by 5, 5 flashes middle.
4
2
5
1
3
C
By 5 flashing middle and 2
occupying the forward, 4 slips
behind the defense for a direct
pass from 3.
Xavier University - Men's Basketball - 3800 Victory Parkway - Cintas Center - Cincinnati, OH 45207 - (513) 745-3417 - (887) WE ARE XU
Xavier University - Men's Basketball - 3800 Victory Parkway - Cintas Center - Cincinnati, OH 45207 - (513) 745-3417 - (887) WE ARE XU